Using Demographic Data to Inform Planning and Decision ...
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Using Demographic Data to Inform Planning and Decision-Making: A Look at Texas Demographic Center Resources & Other Data Sources Presented to October 15, 2020
Transcript of Using Demographic Data to Inform Planning and Decision ...
Using Demographic Data to Inform Planning and Decision-Making:
A Look at Texas Demographic Center Resources & Other Data Sources
Presented to
October 15, 2020
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In this presentation:
• What is the Texas Demographic Center?• A brief look at major Texas demographic trends and projections• TDC Data Resources and Products• Census Bureau Data Resources• How your organization can help us to improve our work
The Texas Demographic Center is the lead demographic agency in the State• State Demographer appointed by Texas Governor; support staff affiliated
with public state university.• Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research at UTSA and Texas Demographic
Center• Monitor demographic shifts and describe implications for state planning and policy-making.
• The U.S. Census Bureau State Data Center Program• Disseminate, promote, and train on Census Bureau data and programs• Annual demographic data users conference [late May, early June]
• State Data Center Affiliates Network• Government, academic, or non-profit organizations who provide data, training, assistance
on how to use Census data and statistics• Examples include public libraries, local planning agencies, or units within colleges or
universities that serve a particular geographic region or focus on a particular subject matter• Texas Demographic Center Affiliates: https://demographics.texas.gov/Affiliates
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Texas Demographic Trends & Projections
Texas is experiencing significant growth.
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2000Population
2010Population
2019 Population
NumericChange
2010‐2019
PercentChange
2010‐2019
United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 32,823,9523 19,481,418 6.3%
Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 28,995,881 3,849,790 15.3%
California 33,871,648 37,253,956 39,512,223 2,257,704 6.1%
Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 21,477,737 2,673,173 14.2%
Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 10,617,423 928,694 9.6%
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 10,488,084 952,333 10.0%
Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 7,614,893 890,353 13.2%
Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 7,278,717 886,429 13.9%
Colorado 5,029,196 5,029,196 5,758,736 729,417 14.5%
Population Growth of Select States, 2000-2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census; 2019 Vintage population estimates
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213,651 208,964 205,795 213,541 214,380 212,021 209,690 190,951 175,878
70,535 76,954 82,44995,661 110,155 111,983 110,417
104,976
65,044
117,615145,513
110,614
163,160174,200
125,80079,163
82,569
125,660
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Natural Increase International Migration Domestic Net Migration
Components of Population Change, 2010-2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage population estimates
8Population growth is not evenly distributed across the state.
10,000 or less10,001 - 50,00050,001 - 100,000100,001 - 500,000500,001 - 1,000,0001,000,001 - 6,000,000 plus
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Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
Presidio Terrell
Reeves
Val Verde
Crockett
Duval
Harris
Hill
Frio
Bell
Kenedy
Kerr
Starr
Polk
Clay
Jeff Davis
Irion
Uvalde
Sutton
Hall
Ellis
Dallam
Gaines
Bexar
Hidalgo
Leon
Hale
Bee
Hartley
Upton
Kinney
Erath
Brazoria
King
Oldham
Zavala
Dimmit
Jack Kent
Gray
Cass
Kimble
Lynn Wise
Lamb Floyd
Andrews
Terry
Coke
Llano Milam
Travis
Ector
Knox
Falls
Collin
Nueces
Ward
Bowie
Kleberg
Foard
Culberson
Edwards
La Salle
Tyler
Medina
Hunt
Rusk
Liberty
Smith
Mills
Lee
Matagorda
Jones
Burnet
Nolan
Potter
Zapata
Cottle
Taylor
Coryell Reagan Houston
Motley
Brown
Young
Maverick
Lamar
Real
Martin
Coleman
Garza
Dallas
Jasper
Fisher
Tom Green
Moore
Cameron
Baylor
Deaf Smith
Archer
Scurry
Mason
Cooke
Navarro
Parker
Castro
Brooks
Atascosa
Hardin
DeWitt
Lavaca
Bailey
Donley
Bosque El Paso
Denton
Goliad
Wharton
Fannin
Runnels
Concho
Tarrant
Hays Fayette
Carson
Schleicher
Crosby
Crane
Borden
Calhoun
Gillespie
Haskell
Newton
Live Oak
Jefferson
McMullen
Jim Hogg
Randall
Sterling
Briscoe
Shelby
Mitchell
Parmer
Victoria
Wilson
Roberts
Menard
San Saba
Howard
Wood
Panola
Grayson
Trinity
Bastrop
Walker
Midland
Gonzales
Hockley
Anderson
Dickens
Swisher
Winkler
Dawson
Cherokee
Wheeler
Willacy
Grimes
Harrison
Colorado
Red River
Eastland
Lubbock
Williamson
Hemphill
Refugio
Karnes Jackson
McCulloch
Ochiltree
Wilbarger
Austin
Sherman
McLennan
Hansford
Blanco
Callahan Loving
Yoakum
Angelina
Lipscomb
Stephens
Hopkins
Palo Pinto
Stonewall
Montague
Hamilton
Bandera
Jim Wells
Cochran
Limestone
Fort Bend
Kaufman
Armstrong
Freestone Comanche
Montgomery
Glasscock
Kendall
Henderson
Galveston
Comal
Johnson Van Zandt
Wichita
Chambers
Titus
Robertson
Brazos
Hutchinson
Sabine
Upshur
Waller
Shackelford Hood
Childress
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Collingsworth
Lampasas
Throckmorton
Hardeman
Guadalupe Caldwell
Aransas
Marion
San Patricio
Madison
San Jacinto
Delta
Orange
Rains
Gregg
San Augustine
Morris
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
169 - 10,000
10,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 500,000
5000,001 - 2,000,000
2,000,001 - 4,713,325
Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Population Estimates
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Estimated Numeric Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2019104 counties lost population over the 9 year period.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Population Estimates
-3,663 - 0
1 - 5,000
5,001 - 25,000
25,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 620,149
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
Presidio Terrell
Reeves
Val Verde
Crockett
Duval
Harris
Hill
Frio
Bell
Kenedy
Kerr
Starr
Polk
Clay
Jeff Davis
Irion
Uvalde
Sutton
Hall
Ellis
Dallam
Gaines
Bexar
Hidalgo
Leon
Hale
Bee
Hartley
Upton
Kinney
Erath
Brazoria
King
Oldham
Zavala
Dimmit
Jack Kent
Gray
Cass
Kimble
Lynn Wise
Lamb Floyd
Andrews
Terry
Coke
Llano Milam
Travis
Ector
Knox
Falls
Collin
Nueces
Ward
Bowie
Kleberg
Foard
Culberson
Edwards
La Salle
Tyler
Medina
Hunt
Rusk
Liberty
Smith
Mills
Lee
Matagorda
Jones
Burnet
Nolan
Potter
Zapata
Cottle
Taylor
Coryell Reagan Houston
Motley
Brown
Young
Maverick
Lamar
Real
Martin
Coleman
Garza
Dallas
Jasper
Fisher
Tom Green
Moore
Cameron
Baylor
Deaf Smith
Archer
Scurry
Mason
Cooke
Navarro
Parker
Castro
Brooks
Atascosa
Hardin
DeWitt
Lavaca
Bailey
Donley
Bosque El Paso
Denton
Goliad
Wharton
Fannin
Runnels
Concho
Tarrant
Hays Fayette
Carson
Schleicher
Crosby
Crane
Borden
Calhoun
Gillespie
Haskell
Newton
Live Oak
Jefferson
McMullen
Jim Hogg
Randall
Sterling
Briscoe
Shelby
Mitchell
Parmer
Victoria
Wilson
Roberts
Menard
San Saba
Howard
Wood
Panola
Grayson
Trinity
Bastrop
Walker
Midland
Gonzales
Hockley
Anderson
Dickens
Swisher
Winkler
Dawson
Cherokee
Wheeler
Willacy
Grimes
Harrison
Colorado
Red River
Eastland
Lubbock
Williamson
Hemphill
Refugio
Karnes Jackson
McCulloch
Ochiltree
Wilbarger
Austin
Sherman
McLennan
Hansford
Blanco
Callahan Loving
Yoakum
Angelina
Lipscomb
Stephens
Hopkins
Palo Pinto
Stonewall
Montague
Hamilton
Bandera
Jim Wells
Cochran
Limestone
Fort Bend
Kaufman
Armstrong
Freestone Comanche
Montgomery
Glasscock
Kendall
Henderson
Galveston
Comal
Johnson Van Zandt
Wichita
Chambers
Titus
Robertson
Brazos
Hutchinson
Sabine
Upshur
Waller
Shackelford Hood
Childress
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Collingsworth
Lampasas
Throckmorton
Hardeman
Guadalupe Caldwell
Aransas
Marion
San Patricio
Madison
San Jacinto
Delta
Orange
Rains
Gregg
San Augustine
Morris
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
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Estimated Percent Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2019
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
Presidio
Culberson
Terrell
Reeves
Val Verde
Crockett
Duval
Harris
Hill
Frio
Bell
Kenedy
Kerr Edwards
Starr
Polk
Clay
Jeff Davis
Irion
Uvalde
Sutton
Hall
Ellis
Dallam
Gaines
Bexar
Hidalgo
Leon
Hale
Bee
Hartley
Upton
Kinney
Erath
Brazoria
King
Oldham
Zavala
Dimmit
Jack Kent
La Salle
Tyler
Gray
Cass
Medina
Kimble
Lynn Wise Hunt
Rusk
Lamb Floyd
Andrews
Liberty
Terry
Coke
Llano Milam
Travis
Ector
Smith
Knox
Mills
Lee
Falls
Collin
Nueces
Jones
Ward
Burnet
Nolan
Potter
Cottle
Taylor
Coryell
Bowie
Motley
Young
Lamar
Real
Martin
Garza
Dallas Fisher
Moore
Kleberg
Cameron
Baylor
Deaf Smith
Archer
Scurry
Mason
Cooke
Navarro
Parker
Castro
Hardin
Donley
El Paso
Denton
Goliad
Fannin
Schleicher
Gillespie
Shelby
Menard
Foard
Wood
Panola
Harrison
Eastland
Bandera
Matagorda
Zapata
Reagan Houston
Brown
Maverick
Coleman
Jasper
Tom Green
Brooks
Atascosa DeWitt
Lavaca
Bailey
Bosque
Wharton
Runnels
Concho
Tarrant
Hays Fayette
Carson
Crosby
Crane
Borden
Calhoun
Haskell
Newton
Live Oak
Jefferson
McMullen
Jim Hogg
Randall
Sterling
Briscoe
Mitchell
Parmer
Victoria
Wilson
Roberts
San Saba
Howard
Grayson
Trinity
Bastrop
Walker
Midland
Gonzales
Hockley
Anderson
Dickens
Swisher
Winkler
Dawson
Cherokee
Wheeler
Willacy
Grimes
Colorado
Red River
Lubbock
Williamson
Hemphill
Refugio
Karnes Jackson
McCulloch
Ochiltree
Wilbarger
Austin
Sherman
McLennan
Hansford
Blanco
Callahan
Loving
Yoakum
Angelina
Lipscomb
Stephens
Hopkins
Palo Pinto
Stonewall
Montague
Hamilton
Jim Wells
Cochran
Limestone
Fort Bend
Kaufman
Armstrong
Freestone Comanche
Montgomery
Glasscock
Kendall
Henderson
Galveston
Comal
Johnson
Van Zandt
Wichita
Chambers
Titus
Robertson
Brazos
Hutchinson
Sabine
Upshur
Waller
Shackelford Hood
Childress
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Collingsworth
Lampasas
Throckmorton
Hardeman
Guadalupe
Caldwell
Aransas
Marion
San Patricio
Madison
San Jacinto
Washington
Delta
Orange
Rains
Gregg
San Augustine
Morris
Franklin
Camp
Somervell
Rockwall
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Population Estimates
-33% - -5%
-4% - 0%
1% - 15%
16% - 31%
32% - 106%
As Texas grows, it ages and continues to diversify.
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NH White, 45%
NH Black, 12%
NH Asian, 4%
NH Other, 2%
Hispanic, 38%
20102,064,657 601,726 522,136 497,006 164,795
53.6%
15.6% 13.6% 12.9%
4.3%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Hispanic NH Black NH White NH Asian NH Other
Share of Contribution to Total Population Change, 2010‐2019
Numeric Change, 2010‐2019
NH White41%
NH Black12%
Hispanic 40%
NH Asian5%
NH Other2%
2019
86.4% of growth has been from minority groups.
Race/Ethnic Composition, Texas, 2010-2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2019 Population Estimates
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‐200,000
‐100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Under 18 18 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 Plus
NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other
Numeric Change in Age Group by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2019 Population Estimates
Annual Shares of Recent Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005-2015
15Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1‐Year PUMS
44.1%
50.6%
69.4%
35.8%
33.0%
17.3%
7.1%
7.3%
7.8%
13.1%
9.1%
5.5%
2015
2010
2005
Latin America Asia Europe Africa and Other
Estimated number of international migrants to Texas
101,588
77,702
98,194
16
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Total Hispanic White Black Asian
Crude Birth Rates by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2006-2018
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics Report
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TDC Data Resources and Other Data Sources
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Texas Demographic Center Population Estimates and Projections Program
• TDC Population Estimates• Produced annually• Total estimates for state, 254 counties, and 1749 places/cities• Estimates by sex, race/ethnicity, and age for state and counties• Released in the Fall (2019 estimates to be released October 2020)• https://demographics.texas.gov/Data/TPEPP/Estimates/
• TDC Population Projections • Produced every other year, except years ending in 0• Project forward 40 years from most recent census• Projections for state and 254 counties• Projections by sex, race/ethnicity, and age for state and counties• https://demographics.texas.gov/Data/TPEPP/Projections/
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Texas Demographic Center Population Estimates
https://demographics.texas.gov/Download/Estimates
https://demographics.texas.gov/Resources/publications/2019/20191205_PopEstimatesBrief.pdf
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Texas Demographic Center Population Projections
https://demographics.texas.gov/Data/TPEPP/Projections/Tool
https://demographics.texas.gov/Resources/publications/2019/20190925_PopProjectionsBrief.pdf
21Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Vintage Population Projections, 2010‐2015 Migration Scenario
13.5
6.0
20.2
5.8
1.80
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Millions
NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other
TDC Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2050
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Other Texas Demographic Center Special Projections
• TxDOT One Stop• https://idserportal.utsa.edu/txdot/onestop/Default.aspx• Including special projections: Household, Household income distribution/median income,
Families in poverty, Vehicle Ownership, Labor force, Disability [available 2021]
• Methodist Healthcare Ministries• Obesity/Overweight, Diabetes, and Health Insurance projections
• Governor’s Office Workforce Investment Council• Projections of the Need for Adult Based Education Services
• TDC Special Projections• Projections of: school enrollment, educational attainment of the labor force, medical
workforce need
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Texas Demographic Center Data and Data Products
• TDC 2020 Census Resources • Map and dashboard• Static maps• Redistricting resources
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Texas Demographic Center Data and Data Products
• TxDOT One Stop• https://idserportal.utsa.edu/txdot/onestop/Default.aspx• Including special projections: Household, Household income distribution/median income,
Families in poverty, Vehicle Ownership, Labor force, Disability
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Texas Demographic Center Data and Data Products
• Texas Health and Human Services Nursing Facilities
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Census Bureau Data and Data Products• American Community Survey
• Over 40 demographic, socioeconomic, and household characteristics • Data.census.gov• 1-Year Estimates• 5-Year Estimates
27Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 American Community Survey 1‐Year Estimates
High School Degree and above
84%
67%
94%90% 88%
30%
15%
39%
25%
60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total Hispanic NH White Black Asian Total Hispanic NH White Black Asian
Austin DFW Houston San Antonio Texas
Bachelor’s Degree and above
American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates
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Census Bureau Data and Data Products
• COVID HUB https://covid19.census.gov/• Household and Small Business Pulse Surveys: measure social and economic impacts during
the pandemic• Community Resilience Estimates: identify areas with up to 3 risk factors present• Business Formation Statistics
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Census Bureau Household Pulse Surveys
https://www.census.gov/library/stories.html
https://demographics.texas.gov/Resources/publications/2020/20200918_ACS2019Brief_TexasMostVulnerablePopulations.pdf
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Partnering with the Texas Demographic Center
• Contact us with your data needs• Simple statistics requests• More in-depth demographic studies• GIS and other data visualization projects
• Invite us to present to your organization• Attend our annual Texas Demographic Conference• Join our Affiliates Network• Join our Population Estimates and Projections Review Panel
