Using Data to Right-Size Your System The Source …...System Map: Emergency Shelter Prior Residence...

The Source for

Housing Solutions

Using Data to Right-Size

Your System

Mandy Chapman Semple, Associate Director

System Analysis & Design Process

Data Collection

System Flow

Diagrams & Inventory

Calculate Demand

Unit Projections

Expansion Strategies

Impact Analysis

Designed to answer 4 questions

What permanent housing options are available?

How do individuals access those options today?

What happens to those individuals inside your system?

Is your current system achieving the desired outcomes?

Original Houston Map

System Map:Emergency Shelter

Prior Residence

Emergency

Shelter

Destinations of the 3,934 exits:

Homeless

13%

80%

3%

Unknown

Permanent

86%

14%

Homeless

Literally

Homeless

Other

Top Prior Residences:51% Don’t Know/Refused (Other)

10% Emergency Shelter (Literal)

10% Staying with Family/Friends (Other)

6% Rental Housing, No Subsidy (Other)

Top Destinations:56% Missing Information (Unknown)

18% Don’t Know/Refused (Unknown)

6% Other (Unknown)

5% Exit to PSH (Permanent)

5% Rental by Client, No Subsidy(Permanent)

84% Average Utilization

System Map:Transitional Housing

Prior Residence

Transitional

Housing

Destinations of the 313 exits:

Homeless

56%

30%

8%

Unknown

Permanent60%

40%Literally Homeless

Other

Top Prior Residences:27% Place Not Meant for Habitation (Literal)

27% Staying with Family/Friends (Other)

13% Emergency Shelter (Literal)

Top Destinations:28% Information Missing (Unknown)

25% Permanent Stay with Family/Friends (Permanent)

14% Exit to PSH (Permanent)

9% Rental by Client, No Subsidy (Permanent)

9% Rental by Client, with subsidy (permanent)

86% Average Utilization

Points for Discussion

Single Adult System Map

SINGLE ADULT SYSTEM MAP

Highlights

Transitional Housing (TH): 62% of single adults are staying in TH for 1 year or less (short lengths of

stay), but only 22% are known to exit to a permanent housing situation

Permanent Supportive Housing (PSH): 81% of single adults enter from a literally homeless situation

Points of Discussion

Emergency Shelter (ES): Entry and exit data is largely unknown.

Transitional Housing (TH): 45% of single adults enter from a literally homeless situation. How is the

CoC targeting for TH?

Transitional Housing (TH): 59% of exit data is missing. Is this a staff capacity issue, data collection

training issue, or something else?

Rapid Re-Housing (RRH): 43% of single adults enter from a literally homeless situation, and 51% enter

from TH. How is the CoC targeting for RRH?

Calculating the Annual Demand – Single Adults

Annual

Demand

Calculating the Demand for Each Intervention - Examples

A

D

U

L

T

S

Y

O

U

T

H

Unit Projections - Examples

How many of each type of unit will it take to house everyone this

year?

A

D

U

L

T

S

Y

O

U

T

H

Goal is to Create a Balanced System

Diversion Families

Requires concurrent efforts to expand inventory & manage access

Project Impact of Inventory Expansion on Annual Demand

Over Time to Finalize Projections Against Goals

5017 5000 5000

4487

3343

1231

26052431

4805

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Single Adult PIT

PIT Housing Placements Exits & Placements

Project Impact of Inventory Expansion on Annual Demand

for Shelter Over Time

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Moderate Users Remaining in Shelter 80 67 53 48 43 39

Moderate Users Placed in TH/RRH 23 25 26 11 11 11

Heavy Users Remaining in Shelter 52 42 31 30 26 23

Heavy Users Placed in PSH 21 22 22 13 13 13

Annual Shelter Capacity 100 100 100 100 100 100

Total Shelter Demand 177 156 133 102 94 86

177

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Solution #1:

Prioritize all 100 year

round beds for the 20% who can’t

self-resolve quickly

Assumptions:

• 100 year round shelter beds and all placements target longest stayers

• Uses existing PSH and TH annual vacancies to produce placements

• All 190 TH beds for singles are used to support long term placements and only

produce a 5% rate of return to homelessness (big shift in operations)

• Inflow of 20 individuals per year (rough estimate) become part of the 20% who

can’t self-resolve

• Formal diversion program implemented or self-resolvers will self-divert when no

shelter is available

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022







170 167 164 161 158 154

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Solution #1+

30 New Permanent

Housing Options

(PSH/RRH) each year

Assumptions:


• Uses existing PSH and TH annual vacancies + 10 new PSH units and 20 new

RRH slots each year for three years to produce placements.







2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022







173

161

148

132126

120

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Solution #1+

60 New Permanent

Housing Options

(PSH/RRH) each year

Assumptions:


• Uses existing PSH and TH annual vacancies + 10 new PSH units and 50 new

RRH slots each year for three years to produce placements.







2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022







177

156

133

10294

86

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Chronics - In Progress• < 500 remain (350 Wait List + 100 SMI Street)• Turnover rate + New units = >500 unit supply• Excess units will prevent new Chronics• Repurposing Outreach Contracts to House 100

SMI Street within 12 months

Veterans - Steady State• Avg. 1300 Housing placements/year• Adequate Resources to House >1300/yr• Small reduction in PIT suggests huge increase in

demand unlikely

Families - In Progress• 1/3 – Rapid Rehousing (RRH) Expansion • 1/3 - Existing Transitional Housing (TH)• 1/4 – PSH• Building Housing stability safety net• All sheltered – Not contributing to optics

Youth – Planning Stage• Prevention & Intervention• TAY Tool to target interventions

Singles -NonChronic

48%

Families19%

Chronics13%

Veterans12%

Youth8%

Houston Homeless Ecosystem Update

Data Source Annualized Count

NeedPSH

(CHRONICS)

Need RRH

<15 DAYS OF SERVICES

(SELF-RESOLVING)

Beacon 9,439 837 1,440 7,169

PIT for System 8,677 1,012 2,301 5,369

HMIS New System Clients(including families)

7,155 0 2,200 4,955

Service Days %

>180 Days 0.50%

29.40%61-180 Days 6.10%

31-60 Days 9.30%

15-30 Days 13.50%

6-14 Days 19.60%

70.60%2-5 Days 26.30%

1 Day 24.70%

Service Use at Beacon• ~2,300 Individuals (out of 10,000) are “stuck” in

homelessness at Beacon.

• Analysis of System wide data revealed similar rates of self-resolution ~70%.

• Only about 1/3 of the population sleeping outside the Beacon self-resolves, suggesting nighttime street population is largely those who are “stuck.”

• Daytime street population is largely a combination of housed, transient, or episodic homeless who will likely seek >15 days of service.

D

A

T

A

Singles –NonChronic

Self Resolve70%

Families

Chronics

Veterans

Youth

Singles at The Beacon participating in Housing Programs

PSH 653 6%

RRH&HP 388 4%

ES&TH 3,235 31%

None 6,092 59%

TOTAL 10,368

PSH 83

RRH&HP 83

ES&TH 56

None 30

Average Service use at Beacon

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The Source for

Housing SolutionsMandy Chapman Semple

[email protected]

Using Data to Right-Size Your System The Source …...System Map: Emergency Shelter Prior Residence...

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