Using Data to Identify Potential Dropouts and Provide Targeted Interventions Office of Special...

Using Data to Identify Potential Dropouts and Provide Targeted Interventions

Office of Special EducationDivision of Technical Assistance

Agenda

• Dropout Research• Characteristics of Students Who Drop Out• Prevention, Intervention, and Recovery Efforts

• Examples of Early Warning Systems and Targeted Intervention Programs

• Steps and Resources for Implementing Early Warning Systems and Targeted Intervention Programs

Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 2Dropout Prevention Conference -

Fall 2013

Research:Early Identification of Dropouts

Which students are likely to drop out?• Most students who drop out leave school

because of bad experiences in school. • Districts can identify the majority of eventual

dropouts earlier—approximately 50% by 6th grade and up to 85% by 9th grade.

• Schools should pay close attention to the transition grades.

Jerald, 2007


Fall 2013

Research:Dropout Prevention

How can schools minimize risk factors?• Better preparation in the lower grades helps

students get and stay on-track for graduation.• Students’ high school experiences make a

difference in their outcomes. • Size, relationships, and curriculum affects

schools’ “holding power.” • Some high school reform models can help

students stay in school. Jerald, 2007


Fall 2013

Research:Dropout Interventions

What does research say about interventions for students identified as at-risk for dropout?

• Ongoing, comprehensive and personalized attention from counselors can reduce dropout rates—even for the most at-risk students.

• Low-intensity programs that provide occasional tutoring, counseling or activities to boost self-esteem do almost nothing to keep students in school.

Jerald, 2007


Fall 2013

Research:Dropout Recovery

What can schools do when prevention and early intervention don’t work?

• No set of strategies are 100% effective. • Students who "slip through the cracks" fall into

two main groups who will need different "recovery" options:

• Students who earned many of the credits needed to graduate; and

• Students who were over-age for their grade level and behind in their credits.

Jerald, 2007


Fall 2013

MA Early Warning System

Massachusetts1. Determined key indicators of risk.

2. Set the criteria and tracked student performance.

3. Created differentiated interventions based on the level of risk.

4. Tracked student and intervention results.

Young, Belusic-Vollor, & Cole, 2012


Fall 2013


1. Determined key indicators of risk:A. Attendance

• In MA, an absence is defined as a loss of more than 10% of instructional time; however, some schools use different metrics for measuring attendance (e.g., elementary schools measure attendance by day while high schools measure attendance by period).

B. Behavior• This indicator is useful when considering younger students

(e.g., 6th grade) but can lead to over-identification if used for older students (e.g., 9th grade).

C. Curriculum • This indicator is used to determine if students are on-track

or off-track.


Fall 2013



6th Grade 9th GradeAttendance Less than 85-90%

attendanceLess than 85-90% attendance

Behavior Behavior grade of “Unsatisfactory” in one or more classes

Did not use a behavior criteria as this led to over-identification of students

Curriculum 2 or more “F” grades in English or Math courses;<2.0 GPA

2 or more “F” grades in English or Math courses;<2.0 GPA

Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013

Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 9

2. Set the criteria for each indicator to “flag” students in 6th and 9th grade and track student performance on the indicators:



3. Created differentiated interventions based on the level of risk with “flagged” students.

4. Evaluated student improvement and intervention effectiveness.

A. Tracked interventions assigned to particular students to evaluate student improvement.

B. Systematically tracked associations between interventions and outcomes for students to evaluate intervention effectiveness.


Fall 2013


MA Early Warning System Tool


School Information Form

45

45

45

45

24

4

Days in Quarter 4

Total # of credits required for graduation

GPA scale (e.g. 4-point, 5-point)

(Enter School Information in Table)

Days in Quarter 1

Days in Quarter 2

School Information

Days in Quarter 3


Heppen & Therriault, 2008



Student Information Form

Last Name First Name Student ID Grade

Example LName 1 Example FName1 Example ID1 9



Student Information

(Enter Student Information in Table)





Semester One Data Worksheet

Last Name First Name Student ID Grade

First 20 Day

Absences

Days Absent

Quarter 1

Days Absent

Quarter 2# Courses Failed (All)

# Courses Failed (Core)

# Credits Earned GPA

First 20 Day Absenteeism

Rate

Quarter 1 Absenteeism

Rate

Semester 1 Total

Absences

Semester 1 Avg Absent

Rate

Example LName 1 Example FName2 Example ID1 9 -- -- -- --



0 0 0 0 -- -- -- --

0 0 0 0 -- -- -- --

0 0 0 0 -- -- -- --

0 0 0 0 -- -- -- --

(Calculated from Student Data)

Semester One Student Data

(Enter Student Data Here)

Semester One Automatic Calculations





Flag for Q3 Attendance

Flag for S2 Attendance

Flag for Course Fs Flag for GPA

Full Year Abseenteeism

RateTotal #

Course Fs

Total # Core

Course Fs

Total # Credits Earned

Full Year GPA

Flag for Attendance

Flag for Course Fs Flag for GPA

Flag for "OFF-TRACK"

## -- -- -- -- # -- -- -- -- -- # -- -- -- -- #

## -- -- -- -- # -- -- -- -- -- # -- -- -- -- #

## -- -- -- -- # -- -- -- -- -- # -- -- -- -- #

## -- -- -- -- # -- -- -- -- -- # -- -- -- -- #

## -- -- -- -- # -- -- -- -- -- # -- -- -- -- #

## -- -- -- -- # -- -- -- -- -- # -- -- -- -- #

## -- -- -- -- # -- -- -- -- -- # -- -- -- -- #

## -- -- -- -- # -- -- -- -- -- # -- -- -- -- #

## -- -- -- -- # -- -- -- -- -- # -- -- -- -- #

Full Year Indicators of Risk

(Monitor for On- or Off-Track to On-time Graduation) (Monitor for On- or Off-Track to On-time Graduation) (Monitor for On- or Off-Track to On-time Graduation)

Semester Two Indicators of Risk Year Totals (Automatic)



NY Targeted Interventions

New York City School District1. Reviewed dropout data to determine important

characteristics of dropouts, i.e., defined the target population.

2. Created and implemented interventions to address specific needs identified in the target population(s).

3. Tracked student and intervention results.


Fall 2013


Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education

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1. Defined the target populations:A. Over-Age/Under-Credited (OA/UC)

i. A review of dropout data found that 93% of drop-outs were 2 or more years off-track relative to their age and credits earned.

ii. Examined all 24,700 students who were OA/UC and found that 7030 ultimately earned a GED or diploma (28%) and 17670 dropped out (72%).

B. Non Over-Age/Under-Credited (Non-OA/UC)i. The review of dropout data found that an additional 7% of

drop-outs were not off-track relative to their age and credits earned but often had life challenges or adult responsibilities interfering with school completion.




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2. Created interventions for each population.A. GED Programs

• Expanded GED programs for the oldest students with the fewest number of credits.

• Developed options including full-time programs and part-time “blended” Learning to Work (LTW) programs which provide additional academic and student support, college and career exploration, work preparation, skills development and internships to help students develop connections to meaningful post-secondary opportunities as well as prepare for the GED.




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2. Created interventions for each population.B. Transfer High Schools

• Created small, academically rigorous, full-time high schools for the youngest students with the fewest number of credits to reengage students with personalized learning environment, rigorous academic standards with student-centered instruction, support to meet students' academic and developmental goals, and connections to college and career readiness.

• Recently enabled these students to participate in the Learning to Work (LTW) programs.




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2. Created interventions for each population.C. Young Adult Borough Centers (YABCs)

• Created evening academic programs for the oldest students with the highest number of credits who were considering dropping out due to OA/UC or having adult responsibilities that make attending school in the daytime difficult (e.g., caretaking for young children or disabled family members).

• Students remain assigned to their sending school and graduate with a regular diploma after earning all credits and passing all exams required.

• Recently enabled these students to participate in the Learning to Work (LTW) programs.




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Targeted intervention results:Four years after implementing these targeted interventions, NY has more than doubled the school completion rate for youth at-risk of dropping out.• Pre-targeted intervention rate 22%• Post-targeted intervention rate 56%




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Additional analyses conducted:• Compared results by types of interventions

• 55.7% of students attending Transfer High Schools completed school compared to 61% of students attending YABCs completed school

• Determined which students benefitted from targeted interventions

• Students with significant life challenges were more successful when attending Transfer High Schools than regular schools, but students without significant life challenges were equally successful in Transfer High Schools or regular high schools.



Applications for Mississippi



How do I apply this information to my district or school?

Keys Lessons Learned for Dropout Prevention

1. Use data to identify students at risk of dropping out

focusing on attendance and achievement in core

courses.

2. Use adult advocates to engage and mentor

students at risk of dropping out (e.g., attendance

and behavior monitors, advisors).

3. Support improved academic performance (e.g., use

team teaching and tiered support for academic

success, develop content recovery courses, and use

tutoring as an academic support).Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013


Dynarski et al., 2008; Kennelly & Monrad, 2007

Keys Lessons Learned for Dropout Prevention

4. Support improved student behavior (e.g., provide

counseling/mentoring and tiered support for behavior).

5. Personalize instruction and the learning environment

(e.g., small learning groups, support students inside and

outside of school, engage families and communities).

6. Engage students in learning through rigorous and

relevant instruction that prepares them to graduate

and be productive citizens (e.g., partner high schools

and feeder middle schools, develop college/career

awareness).



Dynarski et al., 2008; Kennelly & Monrad, 2007

Implementing an Early Warning System with Targeted Interventions

1. Set roles and responsibilities

2. Use EWS Tool

3. Review and Interpret

EWS Data

4. Provide Interventions

5. Monitor Students

6. Evaluate and Refine

EWS



The National High School Center has devised an Early Warning Intervention and Monitoring System (EWIMS) implementation process to help identify and monitor students at risk for dropping out of high school.


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Resources

EWS Resources from the National High School Center and American Institutes for Research

• High school early warning intervention monitoring system implementation guide. http://www.betterhighschools.org/documents/ EWSHSImplementationguide.pdf

• Middle grades early warning intervention monitoring system implementation guide. http://www.betterhighschools.org/documents/EWSMGImplementationguide.pdf


http://www.betterhighschools.org/documents/EWSHSImplementationguide.pdf

http://www.betterhighschools.org/documents/EWSHSImplementationguide.pdf

http://www.betterhighschools.org/documents/EWSMGImplementationguide.pdf

http://www.betterhighschools.org/documents/EWSMGImplementationguide.pdf

Having data is great, but it’s not the answer—it’s responding to

the data that’s the answer!– Marc Johnson, 2011 AASA National

Superintendent of the Year




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Additional References

• Dynarski, M, Clarke, L, Cobb, B, Finn, J, Rumberger, R, & Smink, J (2008) Dropout Prevention: A Practice Guide. Washington, DC: NCEE/RA, IES, USDOE http://ies.ed.gov/ncee/wwc

• Heppen, J & Therriault, S (2008) Developing early warning systems to identify potential high school dropouts. Washington, DC: NHSC/AIR www.betterhighschools.org/pubs/documents/IssueBrief_EarlyWarningSystemsGuide.pdf

• Jerald, C. (2007). Keeping kids in school. Washington DC: CPE www.centerforpubliceducation.org/Main-Menu/Staffingstudents/Keeping-kids-in-school-At-a-glance/Keeping-kids-in-school-Preventing-dropouts.html

• Jerald, C. D. (2008). Identifying potential dropouts: Key lessons for building an early warning data system. Washington DC: Achieve. http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/contentdelivery/servlet/ERICServlet?accno=ED499838


http://ies.ed.gov/ncee/wwc



http://www.betterhighschools.org/pubs/documents/IssueBrief_EarlyWarningSystemsGuide.pdf

http://www.betterhighschools.org/pubs/documents/IssueBrief_EarlyWarningSystemsGuide.pdf

http://www.centerforpubliceducation.org/Main-Menu/Staffingstudents/Keeping-kids-in-school-At-a-glance/Keeping-kids-in-school-Preventing-dropouts.html



http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/contentdelivery/servlet/ERICServlet?accno=ED499838

http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/contentdelivery/servlet/ERICServlet?accno=ED499838


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Additional References

• Kennelly, L., & Monrad, M. (October, 2007). Approaches to dropout prevention: Heeding early warning signs with appropriate Interventions. Washington, DC: NHSC at AIR http://www.betterhighschools.org/pubs/documents/NHSC_ApproachestoDropoutPrevention.pdf

• Pinkus, L. (August 2008). Using early-warning data to improve graduation rates: Closing cracks in the education system. (Policy Brief.) Washington DC: AEE. http://www.all4ed.org/files/EWI.pdf

• Young, K., Belusic-Vollor, V., & Cole, M. (April 2012). Building a comprehensive system to support all students getting to high school graduation and beyond. Presentation of the AYPF http://www.aypf.org/resources/building-a-comprehensive-system-to-support-all-students-getting-to-high-school-graduation-and-beyond/ Dropout Prevention Conference -

Fall 2013

http://www.betterhighschools.org/pubs/documents/NHSC_ApproachestoDropoutPrevention.pdf



http://www.all4ed.org/files/EWI.pdf

http://www.aypf.org/resources/building-a-comprehensive-system-to-support-all-students-getting-to-high-school-graduation-and-beyond/



OSE Technical Assistance Staff:Stacy Callender, Program Coordinator [email protected]

Tanya Bradley, Bureau Director [email protected]

MS Dept. of Education

Office of Special Education

P. O. Box 771

359 N. West Street

Jackson, MS 39201

(601) 359-3498


Contact Information


mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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