Using CEM Data:Target Setting, Monitoring &

Reporting

Belfast, March 6th 2013Neil Defty

Business & Development ManagerCEM

Neil@cem.dur.ac.uk

Which Baseline to use?

Student 1

Student 2

Student 3

Student 3 - IPR

Key Questions for Target Setting

• What type of valid and reliable predictive data should be used to set the targets?

• Should students be involved as part of the process (ownership, empowerment etc.)?

• Should parents be informed of the process and outcome?

Key points to consider might include:

• Where has the data come from?• What (reliable and relevant) data should we

use?• Enabling colleagues to trust the data: Training

(staff)• Communication with parents and students• Challenging, NOT demoralising, students….• Storage and retrieval of data• Consistency of understanding what the data

means and does not mean

Value Added: The theory and Stats bits…

20

40

60

80

100

120

Subject X

Out

com

e

.

Trend Line/Regression Line

Measuring Value Added – Terminology

BASELINE SCORE

-ve VA+ve VA

Residuals

VA

Exa

m g

rade

Measuring Value Added – An Example

Low Ability Average Ability

High Ability

Baseline Score

A*

U

B

C

D

E

F

G

Res

ult Aldwulf Beowulf

Cuthbert+ve (+ 2 grades)

-ve (- 2 grades)

National Trend

‘Average’ Student

The position of the national trend line is of critical importance

Subject A

Subject B

5 6 7 840

60

80

100

120

140

PhotographySociologyEnglish LitPsychologyMathsPhysicsLatin

Average GCSE

Gra

de

Some Subjects are More Equal than Others….A-Level

>1 grade

A*ABC

A

A*

B

C

D

E

Burning Question :

What is my Value Added Score ?

Better Question :

Is it Important ?

Value Added ChartsPre 16

Performance in line with expectation

VA Score

Performance below expectationProblem with Teaching & Learning?

Performance above expectationGood Practice to Share?

Which Subjects Cause Most Concern?

Danger of Relying on Raw Residuals Without Confidence Limits

Additional A

pplied Science

Additional S

cience

Art &

Design

Biology

Business S

tudies

Chem

istry

Design &

Technology

Dram

a

English

English Literature

French

Geography

Germ

an

History

Mathem

atics

Music

Physical E

ducation

Physics

Religious S

tudies

Science

Spanish

Short C

ourse Religious S

tudies

-4-3-2-101234

0.00.8 0.5

-0.3

1.1

-0.4

1.00.2 0.4 0.1 0.1

0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0

0.0

-0.3

0.2 0.5

-0.3

0.70.2

-2.9

0.0

Average Standardised Residuals by Subject

Aver

age

Stan

dard

ised

Res

idua

l

Which subjects now cause most concern ?

Business Studies

Religious Studies

Value Added ChartsPost 16

SPC Chart

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year

Performance in line with expectation

VA Score

Performance below expectationProblem with Teaching & Learning?

Performance above expectationGood Practice to Share?

Subject Summary - 3 Year Average

Subject Summary - Current Year

-0.60-0.48-0.36-0.24-0.120.000.120.240.360.480.60

2002 2003 2004

Aver

age S

tanda

rdise

d Res

idual

Year

-0.60-0.48-0.36-0.24-0.120.000.120.240.360.480.60

A2-English Literature

Statistical Process Control (SPC) Chart

2008 2009 2010Year

Student Level Residuals (SLR) Report

Scatter Plot

A2 – English Literature

General Underachievement?

Student Level Residuals (SLR) Report

Scatter Plot

A2 – English Literature

Too many U’s?

Other things to look for…

Why did these students do so badly?

Why did this student do so well?

How did they do in their other subjects?

Summary of Process

• Examine Subject Summary• Determine ‘interesting’ (i.e. statistically significant) subjects• Look at 3 year average as well as single year if available• Look at trends in ‘Interesting Subjects’• Examine student data – Scatter graphs• Identify students over / under achieving• Any known issues?• Don’t forget to look at over achieving subjects as well as under

achieving

Baseline Choice

• Do students with the same GCSE score from feeder schools with differing value-added have the same ability?

• How can you tell if a student has underachieved at GCSE and thus can you maximise their potential?

• Has a student got very good GCSE scores through the school effort rather than their ability alone?

• Does school GCSE Value-Added limit the ability to add value at KS5?

• Can you add value at every Key Stage?

GCSE or Baseline Test?

The Effect of Prior Value Added

Beyond Expectation+ve Value-Added

In line with Expectation0 Value-Added

Below Expectation-ve Value-Added

Average GCSE = 6 Average GCSE = 6 Average GCSE = 6

Do these 3 students all have the same ability?

Same School - Spot the Difference ?

GCSE as Baseline

Test as Baseline

National or School Type Specific?

Comparison to all schools

Comparison to Independent Schools Only

Comparison to all schools

Comparison to FE Colleges Only

Questions:

→ How does the unit of comparison used affect the Value Added data and what implications does this have on your understanding of performance?

→ Does this have implications for Self Evaluation?

Definitions:• Residual – difference between the points the student attains and

points attained on average by students from the CEM cohort with a similar ability

• Standardised Residual – the residual adjusted to remove differences between qualification points scales and for statistical purposes

• Average Standardised Residual – this is the ‘Value Added Score’ for any group of results

• Subject VA – average of standardised residuals for all students’ results in the particular subject

• School VA – average of standardised residuals for all students’ results in all subjects for a school / college

• Confidence Limit – area of statistical uncertainty within which any variation from 0 is deemed ‘acceptable’ and outside of which could be deemed ‘important’