User Requirements - A Radical Beginning of the Agile Journey

Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 12 Nov 2015

Navigating landscapes

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Doing it Right

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Past Future

Peers

Management Self-imposed Lacking and needed

Over the top stressful

Situation relevant to… Pressure coming from… Sense of urgency is…

Creating new process

Allocating responsibility

All about sharing failure

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From categories to dispositions

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Signification diversity over time as confidence indicator


Cynefin: making sense of the world so we can act in it

There are three basic types of system: ordered, complex and chaotic.

Complex systems have propensities and dispositions but no linear material cause

In Cynefin order is divided into ‘obvious’ & complicated and the fifth domain) disorder.

The boundary between Obvious and Chaotic is show as a cliff, or a catastrophic failure arising from complacency.

ComplicatedGoverning constraints sense-analyse-respond

Good Practice

ObviousRigid constraints

sense-categorise-respond Best Practice

ChaoticAbsence of constraints

act-sense-respond Novel Practice

ComplexEnabling constraints

probe-sense-respond Emergent Practice

1

2a

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Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.

Expected signs of success

Possible signs of failure Dampening actions

Amplification actions

Oblique? Naive?

Name

Action description

Why is it coherent?

COMPLEX

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something memorable

leave blank if not leave blank if not


Safe to fail experiments Principles

Short life cycle, three months max often shorterAny coherent idea gets an experimentThey must take place in parallelMinimum of three, maximum of sevenThey must be safe-to-fail so amplification & dampening identified up frontDon’t analyse other than to prove coherence

Portfolio (managed as such)At least one must be naive At least one must be obliqueYou can have a few high risk/high returnThere must be contradiction

Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.

Research/analysis methods to be used

Experts to be consulted/deployed Justification of choice

Justification of methods

Anticipated date for results Who will review?

Name

Summary of issue/opportunity

Evidence for research or experts being able to handle this question

COMPLICATED

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something memorable

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Basic heuristicsFor action

Finely grained objectsDistributed cognitionDisintermediation

To avoidRetrospective coherence Premature convergence Pattern entrainment

At its simplest What can I change?Where can I monitor the effect of change?Where can I amplify success or dampen failure?

Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 01.04.1954

Like bramble bushes in a thicket

Complex Adaptive Systems are dispositional not casual in nature; modulated not driven

Enabling but not governing constraints (endoskeleton not exoskeleton)

Research and intervention are abductive not inductive (Cobra, butterfly & Hawthorn effects)

Resilience & sustainability require exaptive not adaptive evolution

Innovation as an interplay between unarticulated needs & unknown capability

Scaling requires imperfect copying and recombination not imitation

Juarrero, A (2002) “Complex Dynamic Systems and the Problem of Identity” in Emergence 4(1/2) B-104


24 radiologists were asked to perform a familiar lung nodule detection task. A picture of a gorilla, 48 times larger than the average nodule, was inserted in the last case. 83% of radiologists did not see the gorilla. Eye-tracking showed that the majority of the those who missed the gorilla looked directly at it

“The invisible gorilla strikes again”

Drew, Vo & Wolfe Psychol Sci. Sep 2013; 24(9): 1848–

1853

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/eutils/elink.fcgi?dbfrom=pubmed&retmode=ref&cmd=prlinks&id=23863753

Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 01.04.1954

There is no question that in virtually all circumstances in which people are doing things in order to get rewards, tangible rewards undermine intrinsic motivationAny observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes GoodhartWhen a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure Strathern

New Scientist. 9th April 2011 pp 40-43


From robustness to resiliencePr

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Range of possible outcomes

Gaussian

Low Probability High impact events

Derived from material created by Max BoisotAcademy of Management Montreal 2010

10-²

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Pareto

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early detection, fast recovery &speedy exploitation


Different approaches to understanding

Log

of e

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freq

uenc

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Log of event size

Pareto world

Gaussian world

PossiblePlausible

Probable

Hypothesis/inductive Non-hypothesis/

abductive


Scalable ethnography using human metadata

Micro narratives or observations are the basic units of sense-makingMeaning does not reside in text it is provided by human actors in contextSignificant and growing issues with Big Data & Social Media: the tyranny of herds & algorithmsAbstraction is key to interpretation, meaning making & reuseDescription opens up more possibilities than evaluationMore like these, fewer like those: intervention & advocacy

Acting intuitively, instantly

The situation was analysed logically

People made decisions based on principles


Navigating landscapes

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Doing it Right

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Management Self-imposed Lacking and needed


Situation relevant to… Pressure coming from… Sense of urgency is…

Creating new process

Allocating responsibility

All about sharing failure

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Doing it Right

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Dispositional monitoring


Understanding nuanced differences

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20 40 60 80 100

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Self Imposed

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Human sensor networks

networks for ordinary purpose that can be activated for extra-ordinary needsstimulating the generation of open source datafocus on connections on perceptual timelines not content (as that can already be handled wellFrom anticipation to anticipatory awarenessReal time decision support

User Requirements - A Radical Beginning of the Agile Journey

Technology

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