International Sanctions and the Logic of Choice:

The Case of U.S. Sanctions on the Russian Federation

By Roksana Gabidullina

Contents

• Definition• Sanctions and Logic of Choice• U.S.’s sanctions on Russia and Logic of Choice• Conclusion

What is a sanction?• Sanctions:• “A foreign policy instrument applied to a country to

pressure it into changing its actions. • Sanctions institute deliberate government withdrawal or

threat of withdrawal from trade or financial relations.• Typically sanctions are used to force a country to cooperate

with international law, or to contain a threat to the peace of other countries. Ideally sanctions send a strong message of condemnation and entice countries to comply with international rules in order to avoid further harm.

• Sanctions can be issued by individual countries or by an entire group…” (Stembaugh)

• Can be unilateral or bilateral/multilateral.

Types of Sanctions• “Diplomatic sanctions sever diplomatic ties, such

as by removing embassies from the offending country.

• Economic sanctions can include a number of trade and financial punishments, including a ban of trade, imposing tariffs or embargoes, freezing assets, banning cash transfers, and restricting travel.

• Military sanctions include military intervention, targeted strikes, or supplying arms and aid to military.” (Stembaugh)

Criticisms of sanctions

• Sanctions have a poor record in achieving their foreign policy goals.

• Sometimes sanctions are applied by individual countries, alienating allies.

• Policymakers may make hasty decisions and not think through the criteria.

• There may be substantive costs to the country doing the sanctioning.

Baldwin and Logic of Choice

• Economic sanctions are part of the policymaker’s toolbox. They are a means rather than ends and may be used in various contexts and for various purposes.

• Rational policymakers do not choose a policy solely based on its possible achievement of its goals but also on “how effective [it will] be, with respect to which goals and targets, and at what cost, and in comparison with which policy alternatives” (Baldwin 86).

Baldwin and Logic of Choice

• “…it is rational to employ economic sanctions even when the expectation of success is very low—provided the expected success of alternative courses of action is lower still” (Baldwin 97).

U.S.’s sanctions on Russia• “I, BARACK OBAMA, President of the United States of

America, find that the actions and policies of persons -- including persons who have asserted governmental authority in the Crimean region without the authorization of the Government of Ukraine -- that undermine democratic processes and institutions in Ukraine; threaten its peace, security, stability, sovereignty, and territorial integrity; and contribute to the misappropriation of its assets, constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States, and I hereby declare a national emergency to deal with that threat.”

U.S. Sanctions • Froze assets and banned travel of individuals and

entities (23 government officials and 18 companies) responsible for violating Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

• Americans are prevented from doing business with the blacklisted individuals and companies and from making funds available to them.

• U.S. cut off exports to those companies and prevent exports of high-tech items that would contribute to Russia’s military and oil drilling capabilities.

“Guerillas in gray suits” and Logic of Choice

• Why use sanctions? Why not war? – war with Russia too costly for everyone; sanctions

are cost-effective– sanctions send a message, influence attempt.

Is it going to be effective?

• Russia is turning East. • Undermining the U.S. financial order.• “With Russia, sanctions brought down Russian

stock prices, weakened the ruble and brought warnings of recession…” (Lakshmanan)– Capital flight worth $75 billion (B.B.C).– Sanctions and decreased prices of oil cost Russia

$140 billion dollars this year. Sanctions might cost $40 billion every year (Smith).

Conclusion

• Sanctions are means rather than ends and they are tools for policymakers.

• “…policymakers do not necessarily use economic sanctions because they think they are most effective technique of statecraft; they use them because they are more cost-effective” (Baldwin 102).

• Sanctions may not work perfectly nor reach all their goals but they do have an effect.

Thank you.

Bibliography• B.B.C. "How far do EU-US sanctions on Russia go? ." 15 September 2014. Time. 24 November 2014

<http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28400218>.• Baldwin, David A. "The Sanctions Debate and the Logic of Choice." International Security 4.3 (1999-

2000): 80-107.• Barack, Obama. "Executive Order -- Blocking Property of Certain Persons Contributing to the

Situation in Ukraine." 6 March 2014. The White House. 24 November 2014 <http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/03/06/executive-order-blocking-property-certain-persons-contributing-situation>.

• Bergsten, Fred. "Sanctions Against Rogue States: Do They Work?" 20 May 1998. Council on Foreign Relations. 24 November 2014 <http://www.cfr.org/world/sanctions-against-rogue-states-do-they-work/p51>.

• Lillis, Joanna. "Kazakhstan: Is Sanctions-Hit Kremlin Dragging Astana Down?" 24 September 2014. Eurasia.net. 24 November 2014 <http://www.eurasianet.org/node/70146>.

• Schenkkan, Nate. "Band of Outsiders: How Sanctions Will Strengthen Putin's Regional Clout." 27 August 2014. Foreign Affairs. 24 November 2014 <http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141941/nate-schenkkan/band-of-outsiders>.

• Smith, Geoffrey. "Russian Official Says Oil Slump and Sanctions Cost $140 Billion a Year ." 24 November 2014. Time. 24 November 2014 <https://time.com/3601987/russia-sanctions-oil/>.

• Strembaugh, Alexandra. Russia-Ukraine Crisis: Are Sanctions the Answer? 2014 8 June. 2014 24 November <http://lawstreetmedia.com/issues/world/russia-ukraine-crisis-sanctions-answer/>.

• Varga, Mark. The pitfalls of sanctions and financial warfare. 14 August 2014. 24 November 2014 <http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2014/08/14/the-pitfalls-of-sanctions-and-financial-warfare/>.

Questions

1. After reading Baldwin’s paper, do you think sanctions are useful and do they work? 2. From what you know, will sanctions on Russia work? 3. Since U.S. and E.U. had to react to the Russian aggression in Crimea, what other options did the U.S. and E.U. have? Was using sanctions the right course?