US Japan Economic Cooperation to cope with international ......Hokkaido Tohoku Hokuriku North Kanto...
Transcript of US Japan Economic Cooperation to cope with international ......Hokkaido Tohoku Hokuriku North Kanto...
US‐Japan Economic Cooperation to cope with international
Downturn
Naoyuki Yoshino Professor of Economics
Keio University, Japan
1, Bubble Economy
2, Changes in Japanese Economy
3, Engine of Growth
China, India, and ASEAN
4, Infrastructure Bond
5, Small and Medium sized enterprises’ (SMEs’) Database
6, Possible US‐Japan Cooperation
Japan: Share Price, Land Price, Bank Loans
China, Shanghai Share Price
Why does Bubble Occur in Many Countries ?
1, Easy Monetary Policy Excess Liquidity
2, Share Price starts to rise
3, Wealth effect higher consumption
expansion of sales
4, Improvement of Business Condition
5, Increases in Investment
6, Consumption, Investment, Higher growth
7, Everybody is happy
8, Difficult for the central bank to stop
Bubble Indicators(i) Changes in the ratio of banks’
real estate‐
related loans to the loans of banks overall
In Japan, this ratio rose from 16% to 32.6%
ΔLr/Lr > ΔLt/Lt
(ii) Comparison of the pace of growth in banks’
real estate lending with the real
economic growth rate ΔLr/Lr > ΔY/Y
(iii) The rise in the housing prices compared with the average income of workers
Ph
>
αY
Planned Business Investment
Industrial Production (Japan)
Japan’s Exports by Area
12
8、日本の資金循環の変化
Map of Japan from the North to the South
Hokkaido
TohokuHokuriku
NorthKanto
South KantoTokaiShikokuSouthKyushu
NorthKyushu
Chugoku Kinki
Okinawa(not included)
Marginal Productivity of Public Capital (Regional Disparity)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Hokkaido Tohoku NorthernKanto
SouthernKanto
Hokuriku Tokai Kinki Chugoku Shikoku NorthernKyushu
SouthernKyushu
SecondaryIndustry
TertiaryIndustry
Highway Map in Apr.1, 1970
Highway Map in Apr.1, 1980
Highway Map in Apr.1 2001
Economic Effect of Public Capital (Productivity Effect)
TFP Regression
ttt
tP
tPtL
t
ttL
t
t
t
t
uCapitalPublicTFP
KK
sLLs
YY
TFPTFP
++=
⎟⎟⎠
⎞⎜⎜⎝
⎛−−⎟⎟
⎠
⎞⎜⎜⎝
⎛−⎟⎟
⎠
⎞⎜⎜⎝
⎛=⎟⎟
⎠
⎞⎜⎜⎝
⎛
−−−−
)ln()ln(
ln)1(lnlnln1,
,,
1,
11
βα
Year 1956-69 1960-64 1965-69 1970-74Private Capital Stock 0.7558 0.7304 0.6463 0.4131Public Capital Stock 0.6487 0.8016 0.8168 0.0842
Year 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-93Private Capital Stock 0.3124 0.2578 0.2280 0.1995Public Capital Stock 0.0397 0.0590 0.2525 0.2246
Source: Yoshino, Nakajima, and Nakahigashi (1999) Table 2-4
Translog Production Function ),,( KgLKpfYt =
Regressor (1) (2) (3) (4)Strict Strict Broad Broad
Constant -9.546** -7.148** -9.806** -8.066**Dummy (1974-) 6.448** 4.599** 5.495** 4.183**Dummy (1990-) 2.639 2.557** 1.641 1.603* Public Capital 0.587** 0.432** 0.600** 0.487**Public Capital (1974-) -0.367** -0.261** -0.310 -0.235**Public Capital (1990-) -0.134 -0.129** -0.080 -0.079* Trend Term ー 0.110** - 0.086**R-Squared 0.991 0.998 0.996 0.999D.W. 0.382 1.112 0.475 1.187
Note: *: statistically significant at 5% level **: statistically significant at 1% levelDummy(1974-) : dummy variable (after 1974=1, before 1973 = 0)Dummy(1990-) : dummy variable (after 1990=1, before 1989 = 0)Public Capital (1974-) : coefficient dummy (after 1974 = 1, others = 0)Public Capital (1990-) : coefficient dummy (after 1990 = 1, others = 0)
Effectiveness of Public Capital Stock ‐
“Private capital/Public capital ratio”
to “Marginal productivity of Public capital”
‐
Secondary Industry (Industrial Sector)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6Private Capital / Public Capital
Mar
gina
l Pro
duct
ivity
of P
ublic
Cap
ital
Southern KantoTokai
Kinki
Chugoku
Northern Kanto
Hokkaido
Southern Kyushu
Tohoku
Northern KyushuShikoku
Hokuriku
Effectiveness of Public Capital Stock ‐
“Private capital/Public capital ratio”
to “Marginal productivity of Public capital”
‐
Tertiary Industry
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0 0.5 1 1.5 2Private Capital / Public Capital
Mar
gina
l Pro
duct
ivity
of P
ublic
Cap
ital
Southern Kanto
Kinki
Tokai
Northern Kyusyu
Hokkaido ChugokuShikoku
Southern Kyushu
TohokuHokuriku
Northern Kanto
Table3 Allocation of Public Infrastructure in Japan: (Pooled data, 47 prefecture) Coeffcient Explanatory
Variables Agriculture Land
Conservation Industrial Infrastructure
Improvement of living standardsy
0α Constant -35.44 (-10.46**)
-34.26 (-11.32**)
-61.58 (-11.84**)
52.32 (8.00**)
1α Yp (Income) 0.01 (7.21**)
0.01 (13.18**)
0.02 (17.99**)
0.036 (25.86**)
2α Sp(AreaSize) 4970 (28.47**)
2090 (13.40**)
3855 (14.39**)
2730 (8.10**)
3α Rp(Political Power)
8280 (16.88**)
7274 (16.60**)
10956 (14.55**)
-7434 (-7.85**)
4α Dummy1 -23.21 (-6.69**)
-34.27 (-11.06**)
-59.81 (-11.23**)
-36.85 (-5.50**)
5α Dummy2 27.43 (9.26**)
-1.65 (-0.62)
65.87 (14.48**)
66.89 (11.70**)
Adj. 2R 0.675 0.486 0.458 0.527 (1) ( ) denotes t-value
(2) ** is significant with 99.0% level,
Determinants of regional allocation of public investment (Political Power plays a role)
Reform of the Allocation of Public Investment
Define the level of “National Minimum”School, Police Protection, Education, Basic Infrastructure
(1) User‐Based Infrastructure Bond(a) Beyond the level of National Minimum should be based on
Revenue Bond(b) Issue Bond for specific project such as Air‐port, Highways(c) The rate of return on bonds depend on the revenue of each
project(d) External Benefit ‐
Tax should be subsidized
(2) PPP (Private Public Partnership)(a) Public Projects are partly financed by private funds(b) Failures of the Third Party Project of Japan(c) Weak Governance, No Responsibility in case of failure
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Japan’s Wind Power Plant1, Construction Costs, 2 million US$
2, Investors are individuals.
Unit: 5 thousand US$
3, About 300 investors + Donations
4, Power Supply ‐‐‐
Power Company
5, Local banks ‐‐‐‐
Servicer
6, 3 years, so far 1.8 thousand US$
YoshinoKeioUniversity @CopyRight 24
Wind Power Mill FundHokkaido, 500,000 yen
Wind MillRevenue
Individual Investor
IndividualInvestor
Invest Money
Invest Money
Return
Return
25
Figure 5 Revenue Bond for Infrastructure
InterestPayments
AndPrincipalPayment
(70%)
Tax Payers’Money(30%)
PrivateInvestors
High‐WayToll
Governm
ent
26
Figure 6
Multi‐Currency Revenue Bond
TollRevenue
ThaiBaht
USDollar
JapaneseYen
ThailandInvestors
InternationalInvestors
JapaneseInvestors
27
Figure 4, Several Steps toward the Development of Bond Market in Asia
1, Government Bonds
2, Semi‐public Government Bonds
Such as Power Plant
3, Infrastructure revenue bond
such as high ways
4, Multi‐currency infrastructure bond
5, SME securitized bonds
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A
B
C
D
Figure 8, Rate of Return and the revenue bondr
rG
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Figure 9, Convertible from Government Bond to Revenue Bond
r
rGGovernmentBond Revenue Bond
Success Case
Failed Case
Time
Floor
ConstructionPeriod
Operation Period
Convertible Government Bond to Infrastructure Revenue Bond
Construction Period Investors
Government Bond Rate
Operation Period Investors
Infrastructure Revenue Bond Rate
30
Naoyuki Yoshino, Keio University, Japan
@CopyRight31
Effectiveness of Infrastructure Investment and Revenue Bond
(1) China’s growth 8%
Low income people will satisfied (2) Export, Investment
(3) Stimulus, Domestic Demand (4) Rural Development
(5) Engine of growth, China and India
Infrastructure Investment in Asia
1, Rural Development
2, Export Oriented Growth
3, Train network and Highways
4, Local SMEs and development of Agricultural region
@Copyright=Naoyuki Yoshino,: [email protected] 34
Small Business Financing and
the Development of the Bond Market in Asian
@Copyright=Naoyuki Yoshino,: [email protected] 36
@Copyright=Naoyuki Yoshino,: [email protected] 37
Table 2. Productivity Index (Whole Industry)Employment Size
2.7
1.1
0.5 0.40.2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0-20 21-50 51-100 101-300 301-
@Copyright=Naoyuki Yoshino,: [email protected] 38
SMEs Lag behind Large Companies
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Financial Position of Companies – Large, Middle and Small Companies
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Wage Differentials between Large companies and SMEs
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Types of Financial Institutions –>SME trillion Yen
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Private Financial InstitutionsLoans to SMEs
¥227,463 (89.9%)
Share of Loans to SMEs in Japan
Government Financial InstitutionLoans to SMEs
¥25,466(10.1%)
4 Big Banks lend to large companies, China
@Copyright=Naoyuki Yoshino,: [email protected] 43
@Copyright=Naoyuki Yoshino,: [email protected] 44
ABMI
(Asian Bond Market Initiative)Steps so far1, Government Bond Market2, Semi‐Government Bond (Power plant)3, Large Companies4, Infrastructure Financing (Revenue Bond)5, Housing Loan, SecuritizationSmall Businesses are neglectedCredit Data is difficult to obtain
@Copyright=Naoyuki Yoshino,: [email protected] 45
Three Accounts by SMEs
SMEs
Tax Authority
Banks
His Own
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Lack of Data for SMEs
Largecorporations
SMEs
Banks
Local Credit
CapitalMarket
Stocks and Bonds
CreditRating
Loan Securitization
@Copyright=Naoyuki Yoshino,: [email protected] 47
Collection of Credit Data of SMEs
SMEs79160002007/3
Defaults717000
Financial Institutions
253Regional Banks
Credit AssociationsCredit CooperativesGovernment Banks
Credit GuaranteeCorporations
(Collect Data of SMEs)52
1, Government Support2, Reliability
3, Security of Information
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Figure 7Securitization of SME Loans
SMEs
PrivateBanksLoans
TAXPayersMoney
Credit Guarantee
INVESTERS
Loans
Securitization
Loan Guarantee
@Copyright=Naoyuki Yoshino,: [email protected] 49
SMEs Database 1, Common Database
2, Credit Scoring
3, Securitization of SME loans
It is circulated in Asian Bond Market
4, Benchmark for SME credit analysis
5, Statistical Examination
Default Risk
6, Reduce Information Asymmetry
@Copyright=Naoyuki Yoshino,: [email protected] 50
More than 60% use Credit Data
Naoyuki Yoshino, Keio University, Japan @CopyRight 51
Naoyuki Yoshino, Keio University, Japan @CopyRight 52
53
Lack of Cross Border Capital Flows
Among East Asian Countries1, Lack of Financial Instruments
2, Lack of Liquidity
2, Lack of Information across East Asia,
Home country information
Information Asymmetry
Macro, Micro, Sector, Regional etc.
3, Different Rules and Regulations
(Tax rates, un‐clear Legal system)
4, Under developed Financial Infrastructure
@Copyright=Naoyuki Yoshino,: [email protected] 54
ABMI
(Asian Bond Market Initiative)
Steps so far1, Government Bond Market2, Semi‐Government Bond (Power plant)
Financial LinkageLack of Financial Products,
Asian Savings Bond market in US & Europe
US‐Japan Cooperation in Infra‐bond
1, Infrastructure Bond
China, India and ASEAN countries
2, Project evaluation
3, Structure Infrastructure Bond
Financing methods
4, Hardware, Construction
5, Operation
6, Investors (Pension funds are growing in Asia)
YoshinoKeioUniversity @CopyRight 57
Local Government Budget and
Local Government Bond
Naoyuki Yoshino
Professor of Economics, Keio UniversityChair Person, Fiscal Council (FILP)Member of Local Government Bond Meeting
YoshinoKeioUniversity @CopyRight 58
Number of Prefectures etc.
1996 2005 Population 2000
Prefectures 47 47
Big cities 12 13 27.7 million
Middle size 35 11.8
Small cities 652 644 60.3
Villages 2568 1789 27.0
Total 3271 2568 126.9 million
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Revenues of Local Government(i) Local Tax 33%
(Residential tax 23.5%、2004)
(Corporate tax 30.0%)
(Consumption tax 18.0%)(ii) Transfer from Central Government 25‐30%
(local allocation from tax, Gov. expenses)
(iii) Local Government Bond 10‐15%
(iv) Other Revenues
YoshinoKeioUniversity @CopyRight 60
Tax Allocations between Central and Local Governments (2004)
Total Tax Revenue 81.6 trillion yen(Direct tax 68.1% Indirect tax 31.9%)
Central Government 48.1 trillion yen(Direct tax 58.2% Indirect tax 41.8%)
Local Government 33.5 trillion yen
(Direct tax 82.4% Indirect tax 17.6%)(Local Government Expenditures 91.2 trillion)
National Income 361 trillion yen
YoshinoKeioUniversity @CopyRight 61
Local Government Expenditures
(i) Personal Costs 28.1%
(Wages and salaries)
(ii) Construction 17.9%
(iii)Interest on Local Bonds 14.3%
(iv) Social Welfare 8.2%
(v)
Subsidies 7.5%
Total Spending 91.2 trillion yen
YoshinoKeioUniversity @CopyRight 62
Central and Local Governments’
Debt
YoshinoKeioUniversity @CopyRight 63
Local Government Bond (Demand)
Banks
Market
LPE fund
FILP
YoshinoKeioUniversity
@CopyRight 64
TotalGovernm
entFund
LocalPublicEnterpris
e Fund
PrivateBanketc. Market
Bond(FY1996) 181,103
(100.0) 87,300(48.2)
22,200(12.3)
71,603(39.5)
14,400( 8.0)
57,203(31.6)
(FY1997) 173,659(100.0) 86,000
(49.5)22,200(12.8)
65,459(37.7)
14,400( 8.3)
51,059(29.4)
平成10(FY1998) 160,940(100.0) 76,000
(47.2)19,300(12.0)
65,640(40.8)
13,900( 8.6)
51,740(32.1)
平成11(FY1999) 163,970(100.0) 77,400
(47.2)19,700(12.0)
66,870(40.8)
15,100( 9.2)
51,770(31.6)
平成12(FY2000) 163,106(100.0) 76,500
(46.9)20,200(12.4)
66,406(40.7)
16,100( 9.9)
50,306(30.8)
平成13(FY2001) 164,998(100.0) 78,100
(47.3)19,600(11.9)
67,298(40.8)
16,900(10.2)
50,298(30.5)
平成14(FY2002) 165,239(100.0) 76,000
(46.0)19,000(11.5)
70,239(42.5)
19,400(11.7)
50,839(30.8)
平成15(FY2003) 184,845(100.0) 76,900
(41.6)17,800
(9.6)90,145(48.8)
24,000(13.0)
66,145(35.8)
平成16(FY2004) 174,843(100.0) 56,000
(32.0)16,140
( 9.2)102,703
(58.7)31,600(18.1)
71,103(40.7)
(FY2005) 155,366(100.0) 47,200
(30.0)15,330
( 9.9)92,836(59.8)
33,000(21.2)
59,836(38.5)
Bank Bond
YoshinoKeioUniversity
@CopyRight 65
1995FY 2000FY 2004FY
BANKS
Large Banks 24,614(28.9) 13,936(29.0) 13,769(17.7)
Regional Bank I 32,038(37.6) 12,618(26.3) 16,592(21.4)
Regional Bank II 2,941( 3.5) 1,818( 3.8) 1,726( 2.2)
Trust Banks 3,236( 3.8) 1,745( 3.6) 1,458( 1.9)
Long termCredit Banks
3,021( 3.6) 1,480( 3.1) 645( 0.8)
Sub-Total 65,850(77.4) 31,597(65.8) 34,191(44.0)
Securities Companies 8,327( 9.8) 11,972(24.9) 24,362(31.3)
Individuals 1,077( 1.3) 600( 1.3) 3,069( 4.0)
Total 85,132(100.0) 48,047(100.0) 77,726(100.0)
YoshinoKeioUniversity @CopyRight 66
Market Based LGB (3.4trillion Yen)Including Redemption 5.4 trillion yen, 2004
(1)
10 year LGB (Local Gov. Bond)
(1‐1) 27 LG ‐‐‐
Common issue 1.2 trillion
(1‐2) Individual Issue ‐‐‐‐‐ 2.6 trillion
(2) 5 years and 7 years 1.2 trillion
(3) Long term (15, 20, 30 years) 1.2 trillion
(4) Individual residence bond 0.4 trillion
YoshinoKeioUniversity @CopyRight 67
Joint Issue LG Bonds (27)
1, Increase Liquidity
2, In case of Default,
27 local governments are responsible for repayment
3, Constant Issues
4, Enhance Credit Rating
Better LG issue its own bond
YoshinoKeioUniversity @CopyRight 68
Methods of Issue (Marketable Bonds)
(1) Two Tables’
Method
(1‐1) Tokyo, Nagoya, Kanagawa
Individual Issues
(1‐2) Common conditions (up to 2006/9)
Other Local governments
(2) Individual Issues (after 2006/9)
YoshinoKeioUniversity @CopyRight 69
Local Public Enterprises’
Bonds
Total Issue (2004) 3.6 trillion yen
(i) Water supply 0.5 trillion yen
(ii) Sewage 1.6 trillion yen
(iii) Transportation 0.3 trillion yen
(iv) Hospital 0.3 trillion yen
YoshinoKeioUniversity @CopyRight 70
LG Bond for Individual Investors
1, Issued for specific project
such as Hospital, Rapid Train
2, Rate of Return is higher than CGB
3, Safety (Fixed Interest Rate and ?Guarantee?)
4, Individuals in the region feel their money
constructed each project
5, Concern by Yoshino
No responsibility in loss making projects
YoshinoKeioUniversity @CopyRight 71
How did you know the bonds Issue RatioLocal Government Paper etc. 39.4%
Financial Institutions29.6%
News Papers23.9%
Posters etc10.9%
Local Government 41.3%
Participation in the LG policy 21.1%
Safety issued by LG。 31.5%
Better Rate of Return 31.9%
YoshinoKeioUniversity @CopyRight 72
3Year 4 Year 5Year 7 Year 10 Year Total
2001 FY 0( 0.0%) 0(0.0%) 1
(100.0%) 0(0.0%) 0(0.0%) 1
(100.0%)
2002 FY 4( 9.8%) 0(0.0%) 35
( 85.4% 2(4.9%) 0(0.0%) 41
(100.0%)
2003 FY 6( 7.0%) 2(2.3%) 73
( 84.9%) 4(4.7%) 1(1.2%) 86
(100.0%)
2004 FY 8( 8.5%) 1(1.1%) 79
( 84.0%) 4(4.3%) 2(2.1%) 94
(100.0%)
2005 FY 9(13.0%) 0(0.0%) 56
( 81.2%) 3(4.3%) 1(1.4%) 69
(100.0%)
Total 27
( 9.3%) 3(1.0%) 244
( 83.8%)
13
(4.5%) 4(1.4%) 291
(100.0%)
50yeas old ~ 83.5%
50years of age 20.6%
60years or older 62.9%
60years 35.7%
70years 23.0%
80years 4.2%
YoshinoKeioUniversity @CopyRight 73
Fiscal Investment and Loan Program (FILP, Before 2001/March)
PostalSavings
PostLifeInsurance
PensionFund
FILP
(MOF)GovernmentBanks
Public Enterprises
Local PublicEnterprise
YoshinoKeioUniversity @CopyRight 74
Fiscal Investment and Loan Program (FILP, After 2001/April)
PostalSavings
PostLifeInsurance
PensionFund
FILP
(MOF)GovernmentBanks
Public Enterprises
Local PublicEnterprise
FinancialMarket
FILPBonds
FILPBonds
Agency Bond
AgencyBond
Agency Bond
YoshinoKeioUniversity @CopyRight 75
Down Sizing of FILP 1, Privatization of Postal Savings
2, Down Sizing of FILP system
1996 (Flow) 40.5 trillion yen (Peak)
2000 (Stocks) 417.8 trillion yen (Peak)
2007 (Flow) 14.2 trillion yen
2007 (Stocks) 249.7 trillion yen
3, GDP = 500 trillion yen
G = (annual gov. spending) = 80 trillion yen
YoshinoKeioUniversity @CopyRight 76
Own View for Local Government1, Define – National Minimum
such as school, water supply, transportation
2, Up to National Minimum
Government provides services
3, Beyond National Minimum Level
Revenue Bond for Project
Autonomy for Local Government
4, How to allocate tax revenues
Central government and Local gov.
5, Create Incentive Mechanism
to Public workers
US‐Japan Cooperation1, Financial Market Development in Asia
2, Infrastructure Investment
China, India and ASEAN
Engine of growth
3,Development of SME financing mechanism
Venture Capital
Bank credit
4, Exchange rate system in Asia
Dynamic adjustment toward basket system