U.S. Energy Outlook · U.S. energy production quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook...
Transcript of U.S. Energy Outlook · U.S. energy production quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook...
www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
U.S. Energy Outlook
Harvard UniversityJohn F. Kennedy School of GovernmentMarch 10, 2014 | Cambridge, MA
ByAdam Sieminski, EIA Administrator
U.S. energy use grows slowly over the projection reflecting steady growth in GDP offset by improving energy efficiency
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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
U.S. primary energy consumptionquadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
History Projections2012
37%
18%
27%
8%
8%
1%
32%
10%
18%
30%
8%2%
Nuclear
Oil and other liquids
Natural gas
Coal
Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels)
2025
34%
19%
27%
8%
9%
2%Liquid biofuels
2040
Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014
U.S. production grows rapidly, particularly natural gas, renewables, and liquids in the near term
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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
U.S. energy productionquadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
History Projections2012
26%
21%
31%
11%
10%
22%
38%
20%
12%
8%Nuclear
Crude oil and natural gas plant liquids
Natural gas
Coal
Renewables
2025
23%
24%
34%
11%
8%
2040
Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014
The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources
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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Eagle Ford (TX)Bakken (MT & ND)Spraberry (TX & NM Permian)Bonespring (TX & NM Permian)Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian)Yeso-Glorieta (TX & NM Permian)Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY)HaynesvilleMarcellusWoodford (OK)Granite Wash (OK & TX)Austin Chalk (LA & TX)Monterey (CA)
U.S. tight oil productionmillion barrels of oil per day
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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Marcellus (PA & WV)Eagle Ford (TX)Haynesville (LA & TX)Barnett (TX)Fayetteville (AR)Woodford (OK)Bakken (ND)Antrim (MI, IN, & OH)Rest of US 'shale'
U.S. dry shale gas productionbillion cubic feet per day
Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through January 2014 and represent EIA’s official tight oil & shale gas estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s).
Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014
U.S. crude oil and natural gas production is up dramatically since 2010 and will continue to grow rapidly; this has strategic implications for the United States
• Refinery operations/investment
• Logistics infrastructure investment
• Exports of petroleum products
• Exports of crude oil and natural gas (LNG)
• Operation of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
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U.S. shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040 to reach half of U.S. output
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U.S. dry natural gas productiontrillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Associated with oilCoalbed methane
Tight gas
Shale gas
AlaskaNon-associated offshore
Non-associated onshore
ProjectionsHistory 2012
Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014
billion cubic feet per day
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2005 2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
U.S. dry gas consumptiontrillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
ProjectionsHistory
Industrial*
Electricpower
Commercial
Residential
Transportation**
11.2
4.1
1.7
11.0
3.6
9.1
4.2
0.7
8.5
2.9
*Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel**Includes pipeline fuel
U.S. natural gas consumption growth is driven by electric power, industrial, and transportation use
Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014
U.S. manufacturing output and natural gas use grows with low natural gas prices, particularly in the near term
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manufacturing natural gas consumptionquadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014
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2010 2025 2040AluminumGlass
Iron and steel
Paper
Food
Refining andrelated
Bulk chemicals
Other
Metal based
billion cubic feet per day
durables
manufacturing
U.S. natural gas use in the transportation sector grows rapidly with the largest share in freight trucks
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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
natural gas use by modetrillion Btu billion cubic feet per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014
Freight trucks
Buses
Freight rail and marineLight-duty vehicles
22%
Approximate crude oil equivalent, (thousand barrels per day) 2040
Freight trucksFreight rail and marineBusesLight-duty vehicles
29071389
U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future
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U.S. dry natural gastrillion cubic feet per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014
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ProjectionsHistory 2012
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net exports
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billion cubic feet per day
U.S. natural gas imports and exportstrillion cubic feet per year
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Alaska LNG exports
Pipeline exports to Mexico
Pipeline exports to Canada
Lower 48 states LNG exports
Pipeline imports from Canada
LNG imports
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
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billion cubic feet per day
5.4 tcf of exports(14.8 bcf/day)
2.0 tcf of imports(5.4 bcf/day)
U.S. natural gas gross exports exceed 5 tcf in 2025
ProjectionsHistory 20122025
Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014
Growing tight oil and offshore crude oil production drive U.S. output close to historical high
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
U.S. crude oil productionmillion barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014
Tight oil
Alaska
Other lower 48 onshore
Lower 48 offshore
ProjectionsHistory 2012
U.S. maximum production level of9.6 million barrels per day in 1970
U.S. transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines, while diesel fuel accounts for a growing portion of the market
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transportation energy consumption by fuelquadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014
ProjectionsHistory 2012
59% Motor gasoline
Jet fuel
CNG/LNG
12% 13%3%
44%
31%
3% 4%Other*
Diesel22%
2030
47%
13%3%
30%
1%
2040
Ethanol4%5%
5%
*Includes aviation gasoline, propane, residual fuel oil, lubricants, electricity, and liquid hydrogen
U.S. petroleum product imports and exportsmillion barrels per day
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Other petroleumproduct imports
Distillate exports
Motor gasoline exports
Other petroleumproduct exports
Distillate imports
Motor gasoline imports
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
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U.S. maintains status as a net exporter of petroleum products
ProjectionsHistory 2012
Total petroleum product net exports
U.S. dependence on imported liquids declines, particularly in the near term
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U.S. liquid fuel supplymillion barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case and draft analysis
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net imports40%
32%
ProjectionsHistory 20122005
60%
Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014
25%
2016 2040
OPEC countries now account for most unplanned outages
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estimated unplanned crude oil production outagesthousand barrels per day
Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2014
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Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2014
Other Non-OPEC
Syria
Sudan/S. Sudan
Iraq
Nigeria
Libya
Iran
Non-OPEC
OPEC
Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014
For more information
Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014 17
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
State Energy Profiles | www.eia.gov/state
Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/
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Growth in electricity use slows, but still increases by 29% from 2012 to 2040
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U.S. electricity usepercent growth (3-year rolling average)
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
Projections
History 2012
Period Annual Growth__Electricity use GDP
1950s 9.8 4.11960s 7.3 4.41970s 4.7 3.21980s 2.9 3.01990s 2.4 3.22000-2012 0.7 1.82013-2040 0.9 2.4
Gross domestic product
Electricity use
Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014
Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in natural gas and renewable generation
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electricity net generationtrillion kilowatthours per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
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13%
30%
19%
37%
12%
1% NuclearOil and other liquids
Natural gas
Coal
Renewables
2012ProjectionsHistory
16%
16%
32%
35%
<1%
1993
11%13%
19%
53%
4%
30%
17%
37%
15%
1%
2025 2040
Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014
Non-hydro renewable generation more than doubles between 2012 and 2040
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non-hydropower renewable generationbillion kilowatthours per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
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Wind
Solar
GeothermalMunicipal waste
Biomass
Industrial CHP
Power sector
2012 ProjectionsHistory
Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014
CO2 per dollar of GDP declines faster than energy use per dollar of GDP reflecting the shift to lower carbon fuels
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energy and emission intensityindex, 2005=1
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
History Projections2012
Carbon dioxide emissionsper 2005 dollar GDP
Energy use per 2005dollar of GDP
Energy use per capita
2005
Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014
U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions remain below the 2005 level throughout the projection period
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carbon dioxide emissionsbillion metric tons
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
ProjectionsHistory 20122005
Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are 9% below the 2005 level in 2020 and 7% below the
2005 level in 2040.
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An implicit or explicit carbon value growing at a 5% real rate has a huge impact on the projected generation mix in AEO2014 U.S. electricity net generationtrillion kilowatthours
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1995 2010 2025 20400
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1995 2010 2025 20400
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1995 2010 2025 2040
2014 Reference Case2012
Natural gas
$10 Carbon Fee
Renewables
Nuclear
Coal
34%
23%
22%
19%
$25 Carbon Fee
Natural gas
Renewables
Nuclear
Coal
32%
27%
38%
1%
Harvard Kennedy School March 10, 2014
30%
12%
19%
35%
Natural gas
Renewables
Nuclear
Coal
35%
16%
16%
32%
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release and Preliminary side cases