The Outlook for Energy - United States Association for ... · ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy 0...
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The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Todd Onderdonk Corporate Strategic Planning USAEE / IAEE North American Conference November 2012 – Austin This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Transcript of The Outlook for Energy - United States Association for ... · ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy 0...
The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
Todd Onderdonk
Corporate Strategic Planning
USAEE / IAEE North American Conference
November 2012 – Austin
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes
in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future
Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and
analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission
of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs
Energy Saved
~500
Energy Demand
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Global Progress Drives Demand
Billion
Population GDP Trillion 2005$
United States
Rest of
World
Avg. Annual Growth
2010 to 2040:
0.8% - ROW
0.7% - U.S.
3.0% - ROW
2.4% - U.S.
1.1% - ROW
-0.2% - U.S.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
The Tale of Two Worlds
0
100
200
300
400
500
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
OECD Energy Demand
North America
Europe OECD
Rest of OECD
0
100
200
300
400
500
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Non OECD Energy Demand
China
India
Middle East
Rest of Non OECD
Latin America
Africa
Russia/Caspian
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Transportation
90% By 2040, 90% of
transportation will run on
liquid petroleum-based fuels.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 2040
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 2040
Commercial Transportation Drives Demand Growth
Personal
MBDOE
Commercial
MBDOE
Light Duty Vehicles
Aviation
Marine
Rail
Heavy Duty
Vehicles
ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 2040
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2015 2040
Transportation Fuel Demand Shifts to Diesel
MBDOE
OECD
Gasoline
Ethanol
Diesel
Biodiesel
Jet Fuel
Fuel Oil
Other
MBDOE
Non OECD
ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
Refining Converts Oil Into Many Products
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
Refining: Link between crude oil production and products demand
Crude Oil Input
Diesel
Gasoline
Refinery
LPG / Propane
Gasoline
Chemicals feed
Wax/Asphalt
Lubes/Other
Fuel oil
Aviation fuels
Diesel
Refinery
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation
+80% By 2040, worldwide
electricity demand will be
80% higher.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Global Capacity Utilized
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
'10 '40 '10 '40 '10 '40
Global Capacity GW
Global Electricity Generation Mix Evolves
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990 2015 2040
k TWh By Generation
Wind & Solar
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Other Renewables
Gas
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass/Other Wind / Solar /
Biofuels
Hydro / Geo
0.7%
Quadrillion BTUs
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve
2010
2040
-0.2%
1.6%
2.2% 0.3%
6.0% 1.6%
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 - 2040
0.9%
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Supply
By 2040
60% of global demand will be
supplied by oil & gas.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Unconventional Gas Contribution Increases
BCFD
Production by Type
Unconventional
Conventional
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
BCFD
Demand by Region
North America
Middle East
AP Non OECD
Rest of OECD
Russia/Caspian
Rest of
Non OECD
0
20
40
60
80
100
North America Europe Asia Pacific Latin America Africa Middle East Russia/Caspian
BCFD
0
20
40
60
80
100
North America Europe Asia Pacific Latin America Africa Middle East Russia/Caspian
BCFD
Electricity Generation
BCFD
Global Gas Demand Growth 2010 to 2040
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
MBDOE
Liquids Supply
Liquids Supply Continues to Diversify
Conventional Crude and Condensate
Oil Sands
NGLs
Deepwater
Tight Oil
Biofuels
0
1
2
3
4
5
2040
Remaining
Resource
Cumulative
Production
TBO
Resource *
* Source: Total resource from IHS Inc. The use of this content was
authorized in advance by IHS.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
U.S. Liquids & Gas Supply and Demand
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
~11
Liquids
MBDOE
~9
~7
0
20
40
60
80
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
BCFD
Natural Gas
Local Unconventional
LNG Imports
Local Conventional
Pipeline
Crude & Condensate
Other Petroleum
Biofuels
Net Imports
Liquids
Demand
0
20
40
60
80
100
Energy Use Evolves Over Time
Percent
Global Percent Mix of Fuels
1800 1900 2000 1850 1950
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Other Renewables
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
2040
ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook
Conclusions
