U.S. Economic and Market Update at CCIM Thrive 2014 - Ken McCarthy

OCTOBER 21, 2014

US ECONOMIC AND MARKET UPDATE

CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD

2

Cushman & Wakefield Research

OVERVIEW

■2014: Economy taking off– Weak first quarter, strong second– Second half projected even stronger– Rapid job and income growth anticipated

■Drivers of growth– Businesses shift from defense to offense– Consumers accelerate spending growth-pent up demand– Relative stability in Washington– Tech, Energy

■ Potential Headwinds– Global volatility– Fed tapering-when and how will interest rates rise– Strength of European recovery/APAC

■Real Estate Impact– Stronger employment-healthier markets– Tech/energy dominated markets remain among the best– Supply remains constrained in most markets-industrial construction picking

up– Densification trend

CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD

3

Cushman & Wakefield ResearchEMPLOYMENT GROWTH

COMPARED TO LONG TERM RECOVER AVERAGE

-7,000

-5,000

-3,000

-1,000

1,000

3,000

5,000Average Re-

covery: 2,081

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD

4


225,000

275,000

325,000

375,000

425,000

Mill

ion

s of

20

09

Dolla

rs

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. RETAIL SALES

CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD

5


5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

17%

19%

21%

23%

25%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. RETAIL SALES-INTERNET SHARE OF GAFO

CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD

6


1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 201460

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2000=

100

Source: American Trucking Association

TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX

CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD

7


U.S. RECESSION/RECOVERY PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRYEmployment Change Since January 2008

Jan-08Jul-0

8Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10Jul-1

0Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12Jul-1

2Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14Jul-1

4-14.0%

-9.0%

-4.0%

1.0%

6.0%

Total Financial

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD

8

Cushman & Wakefield ResearchU.S. OFFICE-USING EMPLOYMENT VS.

VACANCY

Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q

9.0%

11.0%

13.0%

15.0%

17.0%

19.0%

21.0%

26,500

27,000

27,500

28,000

28,500

29,000

29,500

30,000

Perc

ent

Thousa

nds

of

Pers

ons

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Cushman & Wakefield Research

www.cushmanwakefield.com

1290 Avenue of the AmericasNew York, NY 10104(212)-841-7500

U.S. Economic and Market Update at CCIM Thrive 2014 - Ken McCarthy

Economy & Finance

Transcript of U.S. Economic and Market Update at CCIM Thrive 2014 - Ken McCarthy