U.S. CAPITAL MARKETS DECK - Securities Industry and ... · PDF file4. 2006. 2015. 0. 2. 4. 6....

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U.S. CAPITAL MARKETS DECK SIFMA RESEARCH OCTOBER 2016

Transcript of U.S. CAPITAL MARKETS DECK - Securities Industry and ... · PDF file4. 2006. 2015. 0. 2. 4. 6....

  • U.S. CAPITAL MARKETS DECK

    SIFMA RESEARCH

    OCTOBER 2016

  • IntroductionAmerica has the largest and deepest capital markets in the world according to the Federal Reserve, the capital markets provide almost 80% of debt financing for businesses in the U.S. The securities industry facilitates access to those markets, creating investor opportunity, capital formation, job creation and economic growth.

    2

    In 2015, market capitalization the total value of all publicly traded securities of the U.S. stock market was $26.5 trillion.

    166 companies conducted initial public offerings in 2015 in the U.S. raising over $32.5 billion in new capital new values for the companies, their employees and their investors.

    The $8.2 trillion corporate bond market is the largest in the world: approximately 1,306 U.S. companies issued $1.5 trillion in corporate bonds to fund their operations and growth in 2015.

    Municipal issuers raised over $377.6 billion in 2015 to finance important community infrastructure projects including schools, airports, roads and bridges.

  • U.S. Economy GDP

    3

    U.S. GDP was $16.4 trillion as of end-2015, up 12.2% from $14.6 trillion in 2006.

    2006 20150

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

    GDP2006 and 2015

    $ Trillions

    19.3% 16.5%

    67% 68%

    -5.6% -3.1%

    19.1% 18.2%

    2006 2015-20%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

    GDP By Category2006 and 2015

    GovernmentConsumption &Investment

    Net Exports ofGoods andServices (Exports- Imports)

    PersonalConsumptionExpenditures

    Gross PrivateDomesticInvestment(Corporate)

  • U.S. Economy GDP Detail

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    2006 20150

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

    GDP By Category - Personal Consumption2006 and 2015

    Durable Goods

    NondurableGoods

    Services

    $ Trillions

    2006 20150

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    3

    Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

    GDP By Category - Gross Private Domestic Investment (Corporate)

    Change in PrivateInventories

    Residential FixedInvestment

    Nonresidential FixedInvestment

    $ Trillions

  • U.S. Economy GDP in Perspective

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    In 2006, U.S. GDP was more than three times as large as Japans GDP, nearly six times as large as Chinas GDP, and 90.6% of the EU28 GDP.

    As of 2015, U.S. GDP was more than four times that of Japan, nearly twice as large as Chinas GDP and 10.6% greater than EU28 GDP.

    Note: European Union includes the 28 EU-member states; China excludes Hong Kong

  • U.S. Economy - Employment

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    U.S. nonfarm employment stood at 148 million as of end-2015, up 4% from 142 million in 2006.

    Transportation and

    warehousing3%

    Finance and insurance

    4%

    Administrative and waste

    management services

    6%

    Agriculture, Mining, Utilities,

    Construction6%

    Manufacturing9%

    Health care and social assistance

    13%

    Trade15%

    Government16%

    Other28%

    U.S. Employment, 2015Total: 147.6 million

    Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: Thomson Reuters

    U.S. Employment2006 - 2015

    Government

    Farm

    Nonfarm ex. GovernmentMillions

  • U.S. Corporate Financing in Perspective

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    Note: Euro Area includes the 19 EU-member states that have adopted the Euro currency

    U.S. companies rely on the capital markets for a greater portion of total funding than do companies

    in the Euro Area, Japan or China, which rely more on bank funding.

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    U.S. Euro Area Japan China (2012)Sources: OECD, ECB, Bank of Japan, National Bureau of Statistics of China

    Financing of non-financial corporations2015

    Other Financing

    Other Equity

    Quoted Shares

    Bonds

    Loans

  • U.S. Corporate Debt Financing in Perspective

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    Note: EU includes the 28 EU-member states

    U.S. companies rely more on the debt capital markets for credit financing than do those in the

    European Union or Japan, which rely more on bank loans for funding.

  • Equity Markets as % of GDP

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    Note: Includes only non-financial corporate equities; Euro Area includes the 19 EU-member states that have adopted the Euro currency; China excludes Hong Kong

    The U.S. has a larger equity market relative to the size of GDP (152%), followed by Japan (107%),

    the Euro Area (62%) and China (58%).

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    120%

    140%

    160%

    U.S. Euro Area Japan ChinaSources: OECD, Bank of Japan, ECB, World Bank, World Federation of Exchanges

    Size of Listed Equity Market as % of GDP2015

  • Bond & Equity Markets as % of GDP

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    Note: Includes only non-financial corporate equities; Euro Area includes the 19 EU-member states that have adopted the Euro currency; China excludes Hong Kong

    The U.S. has the largest bond and equity market relative to the size of GDP (358%), followed by

    Japan (336%), the Euro Area (180%) and China (100%).

    0%

    50%

    100%

    150%

    200%

    250%

    300%

    350%

    400%

    450%

    U.S. Euro Area Japan ChinaSources: BIS, World Bank, World Federation of Exchanges

    Size of Listed Bond & Equity Market as % of GDP2015

  • U.S. Capital Markets

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    Note: Issuance includes long-term corporate, agency and non-agency MBS and CMOs, agency debentures, Treasury, and municipal securities, and primary and secondary equity issuance. Outstanding includes both short- and long-term debt securities and equity market capitalization.

    Bond Market96%

    Equity Market4%

    U.S. Capital Markets Issuance - Equity vs Bonds, 2015

    Total: $6.8 trillion

    Source: Bloomberg, Dealogic, Thomson Reuters, US Agencies, US Treasury, SIFMA

    Bond Market58%

    Equity Market42%

    U.S. Capital Markets Outstanding - Equity vs Bonds, 2015

    Total: $62.7 trillion

    Source: NYSE, NASDAQ, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, U.S. Agencies, U.S. Treasury, SIFMA

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    U.S. Bond Markets: IssuanceBetween 2006 and 2015:

    Treasury issuance increased to represent from 13.3% to 11.6% of total U.S. bond issuance

    Corporate issuances decreased from 17.9% to 17.5%

    Mortgage-related issuances decreased from 46.1% to 38.4%

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    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

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    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg, Dealogic, US Treasury, US Agencies, SIFMA

    U.S Long-Term Bond Issuance2006 - 2015

    Corporate Asset-Backed Mortgage-related Federal Agency Muni/State Treasury$ Trillions

  • U.S. Bond Markets: Outstanding

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    The total value of outstanding bonds in the U.S. was $36.3 trillion at the end of 2015, 39.7% larger

    than at end-2006.

    While all sectors increased in dollar volume outstanding between 2006 and 2015, Treasuries and

    corporates increased relatively more than the other products, with Treasuries doubling in volume

    and corporates growing 68.7% between 2006 and 2015.

  • Treasury Bond Markets: A Closer Look

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    The U.S. Treasury issues different maturities of debt: Short Term or Bills (up to one year) and Long-Term or Notes (one year to 10 years) and Bonds (over 10 years).

    In 2015, the U.S. Treasury issued $2.1 trillion in new long-term securities, almost three times the $788.5 billion issued in 2006.

    The U.S. Treasury bond market outstanding was $13.2 trillion as of end-2015, up three-fold from end-2006.

    Bills70%

    Notes27%

    Bonds3%

    U.S. Treasury Bond Issuance By Tenor, 2015Total: $7.0 trillion

    Source: U.S. Treasury

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: U.S. Treasury

    U.S. Long-Term Treasury Bond Issuance2006 - 2015

    $ Billions

    Chart1

    U.S. Treasury Bond Issuance By Tenor, 2015

    Total: $7.0 trillion

    BillsNotesBonds4894.09653330000041930.6552580999999191.7658246

    Charts

    1GDP by Category

    GDP

    2006 and 2015

    US GDP2006201514613.816397.2

    Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

    Financing of non-financial corporations' debt

    2015

    Stock of Bank LendingEUUSJapan0.7507504210050080.211060593062823460.78489040824119938Debt Securities OutstandingEUUSJapan0.249249578994991920.788939406937176570.21510959175880065

    Sources: Bank of Japan, ECB, Federal Reserve

    Size of Listed Bond & Equity Market as % of GDP

    2015

    Market Cap as a % of GDPU.S.Euro AreaJapanChina3.49875420890459351.52436051820803623.89846030547770541.1314355492048103

    Sources: BIS, World Bank, World Federation of Exchanges

    Size of Listed Equity Market as % of GDP

    2015

    Market Cap as a % of GDPU.S.Euro AreaJapanChina1.47741049470914240.6125205594938291.18171485911419370.43622107193089843

    Sources: OECD, Bank of Japan, ECB, World Bank, World Federation of Exchanges

    U.S Long-Term Bond Issuance

    2006 - 2015

    Treasury2006200720082009201020112012201320142015788.54580999999996752.204569000000111029.44537582197.21142410000042319.83256780000062103.27637039999992304.56169129999992140.00