Hanoi 20/3/2014

URBAN RESILIENCE SCOPING STUDY AND BASELINE ASSESSMENTMIDTERM REPORT 01

Pho Duc Tung Ph.D.Le Thi Huong M.Sc.Le Thi Van Anh M.Sc.

RAPID URBANIZATION:Majority of peoples

Concentration of assetsCLIMATE CHANGE

URBAN RESILIENCIES AS CENTRAL QUESTION

GOALS: MEASURABLE AND POSITIVE IMPACT ON BUILDING RESILIENCE URBAN COMMUNITIES.

Community resilience building Social and livelihood protection The safety of built environment

Facilitating linkagebetween stakeholders Mobilizing resources Advocating for

Vulnerable communitiesSharing knowledge from

Developed countries

USAID / OFDA PROGRAM - CBDRM

BASELINE ASSESSMENT AND SCOPING

Strengthen the capacity ofVietnam Red Cross

Tam Ky Quang Ngai Ha Tinh Hanoi

Increasing the resilience and capacitiesof disaster-prone communities

1st phase focus on activity in rural communes

2nd phase focus on urban areas

What is the hazard?

Hazard assessment

Who are most vulnerable?

Vulnerability assessment

Which important assetsare threated?

Assets inventory

Who are main stakeholders?

Stakeholders mapping

FIELD OF ACTIVITIES

MAIN STRATEGIES

TOR WORK PLAN

CITY PROFILES - WHAT ARE MAIN RESILIENCIES PROBLEMS IN THESE CITIES?

PROGRAM DIRECTION AND ACTION PLAN - HOW CAN THE CITY IMPROVE ITS RESILIENCIES?

COMPREHENSIVE LOGFRAME AND FIRST YEAR IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

How can resourcebe mobilized?

How can the vulnerablegroup be helped?

How can the stakeholdersbe linked?

How can knowhow andtechnologies be transfered?

SCOPING AND BASELINE ASSESSMENT - WHAT IS MOST RELEVANT FOR RC?

RC capacity assessment Chosing of pilot zone Baseline assessment of pilot zone Stakeholder engagementfor pilot zone

RC NEW ORIENTATION1 Develop a detailed work plan

and methodology- Team discussion- discussion with ARC & VNRC

Agreed work plan and detailed methodology

14-Feb Hanoi

2 Comprehensive scoping study

2.1 Desk review Hanoi2.1.1 Theoretical review (3 pages) brief on:

- Climate change, impacts and responses to CC (adaptation and mitigation)?- Special contitions in Vietnam: CC and impacts, responses (policy, investments etc)- urban characteristics

a checklist and method of scoring Hanoi

2.1.2 Urban profiles scored checklist for each of 4 cities- criteria/explaination for ward selection

Team proposal of the ward selection

Hanoi

2.1.3 Stakeholder mapping - Review policies Initial list and short description of initial stakeholders

Hanoi

2.1.4 Prepare midterm report Midterm report (with reccommeded wards)

06-Mar Hanoi

2.2 Multistakeholder consultation

2.2.1 Consultation meetings with VNRC and national agencies

- Guiding questions- Minute writing

Refined list of national stakeholders with contact persons & prefered options for collaboration

Hanoi

2.2.2 Consultation meetings with RC chapters and local agencies

workshop (first day) in 4 city - Refined list of local stakeholders with contact persons & prefered options for collaboration- detail criteria for ward selection and strategic themes

3 provincial cities and

Hanoi

3 Baseline assessment3.1 Capacity assessment of RC - guiding questions (staff,

information/documentation, linkages, procedures, finacial resources etc)- Minute writing

Evaluation of strength/weakness and potentials for collaboration

3 provincial cities and

Hanoi

3.2 Collect key information of 4 selected wards

- workshop & dialogues with local stakeholders, - field study

urban profile for the 4 wards 3 provincial cities and

Hanoi3.3 Undertake urban analysis and

summarize findingsDebriefing on findings and get comments from stakeholders

midterm report 2 (key findings of baseline assessment)

15-May Hanoi and 3 cities

4 Develop overall programmatic directions

- one-day workshop with VNRC, ARC, RC branches and urban stakeholders for each city

- overal strategic vision, potential RC partners, - Priotirized RC options for each ward

30-May Hanoi

5 Comprehensive logframe and first year implementation plan

- Review project logframe- one day workshop with ARC staff to review indicators and develop work plan for first year

Logframe, one year workplan for project

13-Jun Hanoi

6 Finalise the scoping study and baseline assessment report

Debriefing presentation and get comments

Final report 27-Jun Hanoi

METHODOLOGYSTAGE ACTIVITIES EXPECTED OUTPUTS LOCATIONDEADLINE

01

Key in the generation of greenhouse gasesand in strategies to reduce this generation

Generate most of the world’s GDP

Concentration of half of the world’s population-large proportion of those mostat risk from the effects of climate change

Interventions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and vulnerability generate significant co-benefits

RESOURCE

SCALE

COMPLEXITY

CHARACTERISTIC URBAN PROBLEMS

RESPONSETYPE OF RESPONSE

Mitigation Adaptation Hard investment Soft factors

FIELD OF SOLUTION

CHALLENGE

Generation of electricity, transportation, agriculture,deforestation, waste management, production, city live, etc.

Greenhouse gases

Rising temperatures, global average sea level rising,changing patterns of rainfall, extreme weather

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS

Anthropogenic Climate Change

Air quality, water availability, distribution of diseases, flooding, drought, exaggerated urban heat islands

Impacts

Damage to infrastructure, assets, loss of life and livelihoods,changing ecological context, increased cost of energy

Consequences

Movements of people,shifts in the distribution of disease vectors

Indirect consequences

STRENGTHENING COMMUNITYBASED RESILIENCE

APPLICATION OF MODERNTECHNOLOGY/SOFWARE TOOLS INSTITUTIONAL/POLICY STRENTHENING

APPROACHES TO RESILIENCE

ACCCRN: ��A network of 10 cities in 4 Asian countries works to develop integrated plans to address CC��Methodology: at the city level - building local knowledge systems, and resilience planning and strategies; at the regional and global level – contrib-uting to urban climate change resilience globally through experience and knowledge sharingC40:��A network of large and engaged cities around the world takes action to reduce greenhouse gas emis-sions as well as climate risks. ��Establishes regular communication for city officials to facilitate knowledge transfer, peer-to-peer exchange with the aim of sharing challenges, oppor-tunities and best practices.��Through C40 networks, mayors’ commitments to address climate change will be given

DISASTER RESILIENCESCORECARD FOR CITIES

“Ten Essentials” defined by UNISDR:1: Institutional and AdministrativeFramework 2: Financing and Resources 3: Multi-hazard Risk Assessment-Know your Risk 4: Infrastructure Protection, Upgrading and Resilience 5: Protect Vital Facilities: Education and Health 6: Building Regulations and Land Use Planning 7: Training, Education and Public Awareness 8: Environmental Protection and Strengthening of Ecosystems 9: Effective Preparedness, Early Warning and Response 10: Recovery and Rebuilding Communities

INTEGRATE RESILIENCE INTO LOCALDEVELOPMENT PLANNING

ESTABLISHMENT OF DEDICATEDWORKING GROUPS/NETWORKS

World Bank: guidelines to develop local resilience action planning (LRAP) which provided a procedures (list of steps) and piloted in different cities of Vietnam (Hanoi, Can Tho, Haiphong)��Step 1: Conduct qualitative vulnerability self-assessment��Step 2: Establish links to city vision and strategy��Step 3: Establish an LRAP team��Step 4: Conduct city-scale spatial analysis��Step 5: Identify target areas��Step 6: Conduct spatial analysis of each target area��Step7: Identify specific vulnerabilities��Step 8: Perform institutional mapping��Step 9: Inventory other partners��Step 10: Assess gaps��Step 11: Identify possible adaptation options��Step 12: Evaluate alternatives��Step 13: Establish priorities��Step 14: Draft detailed plans for priorities

��Based on indigenous knowledge to assess vulner-ability, build disaster maps…��Community based adaptation programs��Community based disaster risk reduction programs

Hydrodynamic models (Mike flood/Mike Urban/etc) supported by ISET, GIZ, ��Enable to model virtually any flood problem whether it involves rivers, floodplains, floods in streets, drainage networks, coastal areas, dam and levee breaches or any combination of the above��Typical Mike Flood applications: Flood hazard mapping, flood risk analysis, flood contingency planning, impacts assessments of climate change issues, Integrated urban drainage, river and coastal flood modelingGIS: tools to��Understand and assess the intersection of local and regional natural and socioeconomic systems��Estimate the likely physical, economic, and social impacts of disasters��Create and analyze geospatial data, such as hazard and exposure maps, as part of a risk assessment��Manage information for flood risk mitigation

Numerous policies/regulations to strengthen resilience have been developed in Vietnam:��Sustainable Development Strategy��National Strategy on Climate Change (05/12/2011)��NTP to Response to Climate Change (NTP-RCC)” (158/2008 / QD-TTg, 2008)��National Action Plan on CC (NAP-RCC) (Decision No. �����4ĉ�77J����������Green Growth Strategy for 2011-2020 (Decision No. �����4ĉ�77J���������Urban development responding to climate change in WKH�SHULRG������²��������'HFLVLRQ������4ĉ�77J���������Law on Natural Disaster Preparedness and Response”, 2013��National Strategy for Natural Disaster Prevention, Response and Mitigation to 2020” (Decision No. 172/2007/QD-TTg, 2007)

THEORETICAL REVIEW

02

Increased rainfall: Scenario low - medium - hight

NATIONAL CC FACTS

VIETNAMESE CITIES AT RISK

PROBLEMS OF CENTRAL REGION

The top in the list of most vulnerable to climate change countries Ranked number 2 by the percentage increase in storm surge zones Located in one of the 5 storm centres on the planet Number 3 on the list of the impacts of sea level rise Massive deforestation - reduced natural resiliencies, increase threat of flooding. Extensive buildings of hydropower plants by inadequate technology and investments - latent

threat of flooding with fatal consequences Extensive building of hard engineering dams, dykes along rivers - shifting of increased risk of

riverine flooding and sedimentation to future and to other regions, especially coastal and river mouth zones

Concentration of cities and industrial processing zones in dangerous areas along the coast. Rapid and uncontrolled urban sprawl development, mostly in lower ground, with insufficiently

planned filling und cutting process. Rapid moving of rural inhabitants into cities with other living habits, lower living standards and

lower information and communication level. Instable living condition because of legal frames and unreallistic development projects. Inefficient institutional frame to scope with CC problems. No grass root participation in CC. Too much orientation on technical infrastructure by ignoring ecological infrastructure by

planning. Massive problems with drainage, sanitation because no separation of runoff drainage and waste

water sewage in almost all cities. Air pollution and noise pollution because of the mode of private traffic. Problems of urban heat island because lack of energy concept and air circulation concept by

urban planning. Corruption and passive behaviors. Lack of information and knowledge.

especially in coastal regions

housholds etc.

CLIMATE CHANGEIN VIETNAM

03

Typical disaster in Vietnam Sea level rising 1m

Total rainfall MRI - AGCM 20km Resolution

Present day1979 - 2003 End of 21st Century 2075 - 2099 Change = (F - P)/ P(%)

Present day1979 - 2003 End of 21st Century 2075 - 2099 Change = F - P

Yearly Temperature MRI - AGCM 20km Mesh

NUFFIC, NFD, GFD, CCI, DIPECHO, IFRC, ACCRN, Rockef. F, OXFAM, IIED, WORLD VISION, CARE, LIVE AND LEARN, SAVE THE CHILDREN, ADP/GEF, CtC, PLAN, GreenBiz, WU, YU, RC

NGOGIZ, AUSAID, BTC, DANIDA, JICA,UN agencies, SIDA, FAO, EU, CA,Norw. MFA, NDF, FINLAND, CIDANETHERLAND, NORAD, FINIDA,USAID, SECO/SDC, GIZ, DFID

MULTI. BILAT. DONORBANKSWB, ADB, AFD, KFW

DONOR NGO

ACADEMIA CONSULTANCY

ACADEMIA, PROF. INST., CONSULTANCY

ISET, ICEM, URSPROF. INSTITUTIONVUSTA, PUSTA, NISTPASSIMHEN, INSTITUTE OF GEOPHYSICS

NATIONAL UNIVERSITYFOR NATURAL SCIENCES

NETWORKS

STAKEHOLDERS FOR CC

ASIA NETWORK: climate change adaptation, policy making, capacity building and information sharingAPAN: climate resilience of vulnerable human system, ecosystem, and economiesACCCRN: cities’ resilience to CC impacts with sectors flood/ drainage, disaster risk reduction, water resources, housing and healthC40: addressing CC with sectors: adaptation and water, energy, finance and economic development, measurement and planning, SWM, sustainable communities, transportationNational Platform for DRR and CCA: building of the country’s resilience to the impacts of natural disasters and CCNGO-CCWG: CCA, CC awareness and behavior change, CC mitigationNGO-DRRWG: Hazard reduction, Disaster risk management

INTERNATIONAL NW.WUF, ASIA NETWORK, APAN, ACCCRN, PEMSEA, UNFCCC, C40

NATIONAL NW.National Platform for DRR and CCAPartnerships for Disaster Mitigation (NDM-Partnership)VUF, NGO-CCWG, NGO-DRRWG, VUSTA

URBAN CLIMATE RESILIENCE COMMUNITY OF PRACTICE (UCR-CoP)

Thematic groups: Capacity building, sharing resources, advocacyNetwork: includes 40 national and interna-tional organizations, individual experts and practitioners with main members: NISTPASS, ISET, UDA, ACVN, ADB, VIAP

ADMINISTRATION: MINISTRIES - CITIES - DISTRICT

POTENTIAL THEMATIC GROUPS

MULTILATERAL DONORSUNDP: giving advice for policy development, international negotiation, support partnership for disaster mitigation, partnership for both CCA and DRR, emergency relief (in collaboration with VNRC and FRC, RCS)UNEP: strengthening capacity for women and children to adapt with CCFAO: environmental smart agriculture, integration of CC in rural development planningUNIDO: cleaner production NDF: capacity building through investment and technical assistance on climate change issuesEUROPEAN UNION; support partnerships (CCWG, DRR-WG)BITELERAL DONORSJICA: technical assistance, investment in structural works/projects GIZ: technical assistance on urban drainage and flooding at national and city levels, capacity building on climate change and disaster risk, establishment of regional climate change scenariosAUSAid: building community resilience, assisting government at the national and provincial levels to understand the impacts of climate change, support-ing low carbon growthUSAid: investment and technical assistance in water and sanitation, strength-ening resilience and response to disasters, investment in energy efficient technologiesSIDA: improve awareness through education program on climate change and training courses on evaluating risks; build eco-system risk evaluation framework, offer technical consultancy on resource management linked with climate changeNETHERLANDS: provide technical assistance in constructing flood control works, dealing with urban flooding and managing water resources, improve community awareness, advise to policy development by creating a long-term development plan for the Mekong Delta in the context of climate change and rising sea levels.DEVELOPMENT BANKS: WB, ADB, AFDResearch funds for CC & DRR in Vietnam Make funds available for projects involving public housing (house construc-tion), the environment (waste treatment, etc.) and energyInvestment in construction works to respond to climate change, disaster risksTA for pilot projects + proposals for big investment projectsSmall grants for small scale/pilot projectsINTERNATIONAL & NATIONAL NGOs: Contribute to capacity building through raising community awareness on climate change, disaster risk, community health…Developing dedicated adaptation and mitigation projects, as well as introducing initiatives to raise awareness and encourage behaviour change and advocating for pro-poor climate policies

REMARKS TO STAKEHOLDERS AND CURRENT PROJECTS IN CC

National Agencies: � Well development of laws, policies, strategies, action plans but lack of CC knowledge, lack of M&E tools� Criteria for selection of prioritized projects are not yet based on the province/city’s performance toward CC resilience or in socio-economic development performance. “Give-and Receive Mechanism” is the main problem everywhere.Local agencies (provincial, city/district and commune)� Mainly concentrate on hard solutions rather than soft ones (e.g: dykes, roads construction).� Lack of strategic priorities, scattered investment.� Lack of tools (database, technical knowledge) and funds to implement the many NTPs.International donors:� Big investment projects, inadequate to management capacities, which are source of corruption, little efficiencies.� Big ODA – loans to the country but grants to the province/cities; Create passive mentalities “waiting for central aids”. This together with poor performance assessment system has been hindering peoples to proactively response to any problems.INGOs/NGO:� Limited fund, focusing on small scale projects and soft solutions.� Efficient and effective but difficult to be scaled up as lack of concensus from Government agencies.Private sector (Trading/production):��/RZ�DZDUHQHVV��ORZ�SDUWLFLSDWLRQ��SRWHQWLDO�IRU�UHVRXUFHV�FRQWULEXWLRQ�Communities:��/RZ�DZDUHQHVV��ORZ�SDUWLFLSDWLRQ��+DYLQJ�LQGLJHRXV�NQRZOHGJH�

OVERVIEW OF STAKEHOLDERS FOR CC

04

National Steering Committee on Climate Change (NSCCC)

Central Committee for Flood & Storm Control (CCFSC)

National Committee for Search & Rescue (NCSR)

MARDDirectorate of Water Resources- Agency Dyke mngt and FSC/ Standing office of CCFSC

DMC

MONRE

Agency of Hydro-Meoteorological and CC/ Standing Office of NCCC

MPI

Dept. Science - Education and Natural

MOIC

Dept. Telecomunication

MOF MOIT MOET Vietnam Fatherland Font MOD

CEN

TRAL

PPC

Provincial Committee on Climate Change Provincial Committee for Flood & Storm Control Provincial Committee for Search & Rescue

OTHERMINISTRIES

DONRE

MOC

DOC DARD DPI DOF DOIT DOET DOIC Provincial

Military

Command

Other Departments

PRO

VIN

CE

Standing office of NCSR

Standing Office of PCCC

Standing Office of PCFSC

Direction

Focus on Flood and Storm control, disaster management

Focus on Climate Chage

Neutral

Support, interaction

LEGEND

Focus on drainage

Mass Organization, civil society

People's Committee

Women's Union

Red Cross

Fatherland font Division of Economy (in chargeof FSC)

Division of Urban Management

(responsible for Urban

Infrastructure

Division of Environment

(in charge of CC)

CIT

Y/ D

ISTR

ICT

State Administrative Organizations

Dept. student Affairs

Dept. Public

Finance

Standing Oĸce

of PCSR

UDA Vietnam Red Cross

Vietnam Women's Union

Women's UnionRed Cross

Fatherland Font

NGOs/LNGOs

PROJECTS ON CC

Source: urbanclimatevn.wordpress.com05

HANOI CITYINTRODUCTIONHanoi is Vietnam’s capital and second-most populous city, and is an important contributor to the national economy. It has a long history (marking its 1000-year anniversary in 2010) a rich culture, and priceless architectural structures, which are impor-tant not only to the country’s citizens, but to the tourism indus-try. The Government’s city plan for 2030 and its vision toward 2050 envision Hanoi as a modern, dynamic capital city, a proud symbol for Vietnam, serving effectively as its epicenter of government, culture, science, and education, and as a tourism and international transaction center in the greater Asia-Pacific Region.

The most characteristic problem of Hanoi is its population growth (around 3.5 percent per year) and territorial expansion, which is increasingly straining the city’s antiquated infrastruc-ture, some of which dates back to the early 20th century. From a small city core of some hundreds hectars and less than 50.000 inhabitants at the beginning of the 20th century, the city grew to 1000 km2 with more than 2 millions inhabitants in 1998. Hanoi’s expansion in August 2008, which tripled the size of the city, while a positive step for the growth and administration of the city, added to the urgency and complexity of developing a comprehensive disaster preparedness and response system. The population of Hanoi is expected to grow from nearly 6.5 million people today to 10 million people by 2030.

Airal photography of Hanoi

Capital general construction master plan until 2030 and vision toward 2050Imo development in Hanoi

Hanoi city map 1831

Hanoi city map 1885

Hanoi city map 1898

HAZARDSHanoi is vulnerable to all kinds of natural hazards, including earthquakes, windstorms, river floods, extreme precipitation, droughts, landslides, and extreme temperatures, which are expected to worsen as a consequence of climate changes and environmental degradation.From all hazards, flooding is the most urgent problem. The unusually heavy rain in Octo-ber and November of 2008 accounted for almost one third of the total rainfall in Hanoi that year. The water level of the inner rivers rose over the warning level 3, and the water level in all the reservoirs in the area exceeded the designed flood level. The resulting widespread flood and inundation damaged 54,356 ha of winter crops, 9,407 ha of aquatic land, and 2,718 ha of late winter rice crops. Nearly 100,000 households were affected. Five hundred and twenty pumping machines from 112 pumping stations had to be evacuated; 55 pumping stations had to be fixed; 32 km of irrigated and drained channels were blown apart or filled with sediment; more than 200 items of irrigation works were damaged; the banks of the Nhue River overflowed in several areas; and more than 5,000 m of electric cables were damaged.Hanoi is a city with many lakes and ponds which are traces of ancient rivers. In old Hanoi alone there are more than 100 lakes and ponds covering a total area of over 1000 ha. Several of these bodies of water have important roles in term of history, culture, natural landscape, biodiversity, and inundation regulation. Rapid urbanization and population growth during the 1990s and 2000s have encroached upon and endangered thelakes and ponds in Hanoi. About 65 percent of the area covered by rivers, lakes, and ponds in Hanoi has been filled in. The remaining area has been embanked/concretized. These activities have significantly reduced the critical water regulation role played by natural bodies of water. Between 1986 and 1996 in the four inner districts of old Hanoi alone, the water surface area including rivers, lakes and ponds was reduced by over 50 percent. Hanoi’s system of sewage collection and treatment has not been strategically built, but rather has been based mainly on the natural rivers, lakes, ponds, and channels. This, together with the mass development of industries which have surpassed the city’s capac-ity for sewage treatment, has exacerbated the city’s water pollution.Most rivers, lakes, and ponds in Hanoi have been severely contaminated. It is estimated that the level of water pollution will double by 2020 if no effective solutions are found. To Lich River – the main sewage facility for old Hanoi – receives 150,000m3 of sewage/day. Kim Nguu River receives 120,000 m3 of sewage/day. Besides providing drainage, the rivers and channels in Hanoi have also received part of the waste generated by the people, industries and handicraft villages. Nearly all the lakes and ponds in Hanoi have become points of sewage discharge, without any sanitation treatment.It is reported that every day Hanoi discharges 500,000 m3 of sewage, of which 400,000 m3 comes from human activity. Three sewage treatment facilities in Hanoi (BacThang Long, Van Tri plant and Kim Lien, Truc Bach stations) can treat only 5 to 7 percent of the city’s sewage. In addition to these treatment facilities there are few small facilities such as waste water treatment plants No. 1 and 2 with a total capacity of 1,500m3/day built in the Nam Son complex waste treatment area in Soc Son district; only 20 to 30 percent of the sewage discharged from industrial establishments is treated; only eight out of 48 hospi-tals and health centers under the management of the City People’s Committee have sewage treatment systems; none of the 1,310 handicraft villages in the city treat their sewage.

Inundation potential from sea level rise - 1m scenario for Hanoi Inundation Topology & water body

Relative flood potential of Hanoi Diverge and slowing down flood

October 2008, almost the whole Hanoi city was under water

Storm in Hanoi from 1945 to 2009

VULNERABLE COMMUNITYAfter an expansion in August 2008, Hanoi has grown to an area of 3,324.92 km2 with a total population of 6.449 million people (GSO, Population Census 2009). This has made Hanoi the largest city of Vietnam in term of area and the second largest in term of population. Hanoi currently has 10 urban districts, 18 rural districts, one town and 577 administrative units at the commune level including 401 rural communes, 154 wards and 22 townships (see Administrative map in the annex attached).

According to the Hanoi Department of Police, by October 30, 2008 there were 1,547,573 households in Hanoi. The population density was about 1,900 persons/km2. The corresponding figures for the three target areas (Van Chuong, Linh Nam and Vong Xuyen) are 40,000, 4,000 and 2,119 persons/km2 respectively. The population is not evenly distributed, concentrated mainly in four districts of the inner city, namely Hoan Kiem, Ba Dinh, Hai Ba Trung and Dong Da, followed by Thanh Xuan, Cau Giay and Tay Ho. These areas are abundant with offices, institutions, shopping and recreation centers. The wards in old Hanoi, especially in the inner city, have the highest density rate, whereas in the mountainous communes the rate is very low. The excessive concentration of population in the center has caused several problems such as environmental pollution, traffic jams, overload of public facilities, etc.

Population, especially children and the elderly, in the low lying land along the rivers are vulnerable to natural disasters. It is necessary to raise awareness among these communities of the potential risk of disasters and improve capacity of CSFSR.

The poverty incidence in Hanoi is not among the highest in the country, averaging 8.43 percent as of March 2009, according to the new poverty line32 set by Hanoi PC for the period of 2009-2013. Using the national poverty line33 the poverty rate in Hanoi would be less than 5 percent, compared to the national average of 11 percent. The highest poverty rate as well as the highest absolute number of poor people are concentrated in the rural mountainous areas of My Duc (22,65 percent), followed by Bavi, Soc Son, Ung Hoa, and Chuong My districts. These are among the 12 districts having poverty rates of over 10 percent. Of the 117,825 poor households in Hanoi with a total population of 406,232 people, 45,000 people are from ethnic minority groups. Hanoi has set a target of reducing poverty by 2 percent and helping people in the eight communes with a poverty rate of 25 percent to get out of poverty by the end of 200934.

Poverty Land useAdministration & population density

Clean water supply

Community Facilities Drainage plan

Transportation

ASSETS IN RISKConcerning vulnerable sectors, results of the overlaying map layers showed that among the economic sectors in Hanoi, agriculture is most severely affected by natural disasters and even more in the future, considering the Country climate change scenarios produced by MONRE. In order to reduce or minimize agricultural losses, besides installation of an early warning system and upstream reforestation, research and study on crop varieties that are resistant to flood or drought, and study on transformation of cropping patterns is required. Transport is also affected significantly. Flood and inundation may cause transport stagnation and destroy roads, pavements, bridges, etc. Vehicles can also be damaged if the city is flooded. Recently, Hanoi’s urban transport system has experienced a very high rate of growth. From 1996 to the present, the annual growth rate of motor vehicle traffic alone is 8 to 13 percent for motorbikes and 5 to 8 percent for cars. Currently, Hanoi has 287,000 cars and 3.4 million motorbikes, in addition to vehicles coming in and out daily without registration that account for 30 percent of the total transport means operating in Hanoi. It is projected that by 2020, personal vehicles will increase by 15 percent. The infrastructure system including beltways, roads, bridges, etc. has been upgraded and expanded constantly. Traffic lights have been established to better direct the traffic flows. However the rate of infrastructure development has not kept up with the growth of vehicular traffic. Over the past five years, Hanoi has developed 5 to 10 km of new roads each year. The land area designated for transportation in inner Hanoi comprises less than 7.5 percent of the total land assigned for urban construction and meets approximately 40 percent of the city’s transportation requirements. The density of roads in the inner city is 4.06km/km2 as compared to the standard of 10 to 13km/km2. In the suburbs the number is 0.74km/km2.Hanoi’s road infrastructure system is still poor. Roads are small and often intersected. Hanoi has 955 km of roads (both inner city and suburban) 80 percent of which are less than 11m wide. Hanoi has 580 transport junctions, however only few have overpasses for pedestrians. The slowly developing road system is being overloaded by the rapid increase in the amount of traffic. Traffic jams are common during both peak and off-peak hours. Flooding exacerbates the situation.Recently Hanoi has been developing new residential areas, unfortunately these still lack basic services, such as schools, hospitals, and electricity and water supply systems. Residents in these areas often must travel long distances to take their children to school and then travel to different locations for work. This additional commuting has contributed to traffic jams. There are 124 recognized permanent bottlenecks which cause traffic jams in Hanoi, impacting the economy of the city and the health of its residents. Each hour of travel delay can cause losses of billions dong16 including benzyl cost, waste of productive work time, and a toxic exhaust from vehicles. Various measures have been taken to solve the problem with little success. In addition, commercialization of highways is common, with people preferring to live in houses which face roads or highways for business purposes. Passenger vehicle emissions and dust from construction has created severe air pollution in Hanoi. On average, each year the city produces 80,000 tons of smoke, 9,000 tons of SO2, 19,000 tons of NO2, and 46,000 tons of CO. In general, transportation contributes 85 percent of CO and 95 percent of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs). Motor vehicles participating in road transportation are the biggest source of emission causing air pollution in urban areas of which such toxic substances as CO, NOx, gas smell (HmCn, VOCs), leaden dust, Benzen and PN 2,5 dust are the main source of pollution.The energy sector can also be affected. Several electric transformers were flooded and had to be turned off during the heavy rain in October 2008, and after that unfortunate event, several transformers had to be moved to a higher location. When there is a severe drought, several hydro power plants run at minimum capacity and there is a shortage of electricity for production as well as livelihood. The infrastructure system can be damaged or destroyed by extreme events.Schools, hospitals and other community facilities in old Hanoi can easily be affected by extreme climate events. The building code needs to be revised to include resilient construction standards for heavy rains, windstorms, earthquakes, fire protection, search and rescue, etc. Houses, especially the ones that are temporary or are built on the margin of river banks, are also very vulnerable to flood, erosion, strong wind, storms and fire. In new Hanoi there will be 116 newly established urban areas with a total area of about 28,000 ha31. Several areas are already in place and many are in the process of site clearance or feasibility studies. In addition, several old low-storey buildings in the inner city have been replaced with multi-storey buildings. The high rate of urbanization, and low percentage of green areas together with a badly organized sewage system has exacerbated the inundation problem in old Hanoi.Productive zone:According to the Master Plan of Industrial Zone, Clusters and Points by 2010, and Vision 2020 in Hanoi there will be one high-tech area in Hoa Lac with a total area of 1,586 ha; 11 industrial zones with a total area of 2,000 ha; 49 industrial clusters with a total area of 3,707 ha; and 177 industrial points with a total area of 1,330 ha. In October 2009, the establishment of 18 industrial zones with a total area of 3,500 ha, was approved in Hanoi, however in reality only 11 have been being constructed and are operating. The numbers for industrial clusters and points are 43/49 and 63/177 respectively. The Land Use Map shows that industrial zones, clusters and points are distributed evenly in various suburban districts in the North and the West and some urban districts of Hanoi. The existence of industrial zones in the core urban areas is a significant source of air and water pollution in the city.Clean water supply systemCurrently Hanoi maintains a stable supply of 688.000 m3 of water/day, giving 95 percent of urban residents access to clean water at an average quantity of 120 liters/person/day. The rate of safe water access for Hanoi’s rural dwellers is over 80 percent. According to the Ministry of Health Care standards, however, only 30 percent of these have access to clean water. There are 229,675 wells serving 927,300 rural people, accounting for 11 percent of the total rural population, of which only 2.5 percent meets the requirements of the Health sector. There are 531,430 drilled wells serving 2,295,000 rural people or 52.5 percent of the total rural population of which 11 percent meet the Health sector requirements. Eighty-nine operating water supply plants provide clean water for 600,000 people accounting for 15.1 percent of the rural population having access to clean water by health sector standards.Several gaps have been recognized in Hanoi and will be the focus of priority actions for resilience. Among those gaps are the following: Waste and waste water management systems, even if improved and upgraded as planned, will still likely fail to fully address pollution needs and will likely have ancillary effects on the drainage system; infrastructures, such as drainage systems, pumping stations, dykes (especially in new Hanoi) and road networks, even with planned improve-ment, seem unable to cope with major extreme events; “soft measures” are the most lacking: raising awareness at ward and commune levels, developing weather forecasting and climate projection capacities, and training on emergency and rescue activities, prevention of hazards and basic climate change resilience activities--especially no regret measures--in many cases are not even planned.The LRAP team was invited to evaluate the efficacy and effectiveness of those measures in addressing vulnerability in Hanoi (and eventually propose additional measures or delete some of the suggested ones) and then to identify priority of action among the suggested measures.To control water surface pollution the team proposed improving main drainage rivers namely the Tolich, Lu, Set, Kim Nguu, Tich, Nhue and Day rivers; compre-hensively managing river basins; controlling sources of waste; dredging river beds; protecting main lakes such as West, Hoan Kiem, Thien Quang, Van Chuong, Kim Lien, and Linh Quang lakes from encroachment and contamination by urban water and solid waste; completing the projects of the improving urban water drainage system; and completing processing stations for old urban areas (Yen So, Thong Nhat, Phu Do, Yen Xa).To control underground water pollution the team proposed limiting exploitation of underground water in the South and increasing the use of surface water; and applying new technologies for processing nitrogen and arsenic.To address solid waste problems the team suggested classifying waste at the source, using technology to limit burying, strictly controlling industrial and medical solid waste, and planning solid waste management.To control air pollution the team proposed improving urban traffic infrastructure, gradually reducing individual means of transport while increasing the use of public transportation by improving the urban public traffic, moving industrial zones out of the core areas, and promoting clean production in polluted craft villages.To control flooding the team proposed improving the ecosystem on riverside, improving watersheds, stabilizing riverbeds, protecting and concretizing river banks, and strengthening embankments and dikes in flooding areas near the Day and Tich rivers.

WARD SELECTIONThrough the rapid vulnerability assessment conducted by the Hanoi Working Group on Climate Change in February 2009, the following areas were identified as the most vulnerable:

1) PhucTho and Thach That Districts in the north – main vulnerability cause: river flooding; most affected area in the districts: basins in “Van Coc” and “VuongN-gao” areas and rural areas;

2) Thanh Tri and Thuong Tin Districts in the southeast – main vulnerability cause: river flooding and inunda-tion and lack of infrastructures, such as efficient pumping systems; most affected area in the districts: residential areas (closer to old Hanoi) and rural areas; /; and

3) ThanhOai, PhuXuyen and UngHoa Districts – main vulnerability cause: drought and rainfall shortage and lack of infrastructures such as rainfall storage, pump-ing for irrigation; most affected area in the districts: rural areas.

The selection was guided by several criteria: the three areas have high degree of current and expectedfuture hazards, i.e. VongXuyen to flood in rural areas and Van Chuong and Linh Nam to inundation, the socio-economic and political importance, i.e. Van Chuong and Linh Nam are at the core of old Hanoi, the com-mitment of the local leaders, i.e. all the three areas have been very cooperative and hosted several meet-ings with the LRAP team and also showed high com-mitment to build resilience, and last but not least, the availability of thedata and information.

Particular attention has to be given also to old Hanoi, where inundation and water logs still highly affect buildings, cultural heritage, economic and social cent-ers, utilities and in particular the poor, leaving in temporary houses or in the lower lands of the Districts.

The self-assessment found that Hanoi is more vulner-able to extreme temperature and precipitation changes than to changes in sea level. Extreme temperatures affect health care facilities (since they cause an increase in disease), transportation, water management, tourism, and recreation. Extreme precipitation change may affect all sectors. In general all sectors, except industry, have a low level of natural disaster preparedness and response capability.

Hanoi target area Linh Nam hazard map

Linh Nam land use map

Van Chuong ward map

INTRODUCTIONHa Tinh City is the administrative, political and socioeco-nomical center of Ha Tinh province, situated in 180°- 18024’ North, 105°53’ - 105°56’ East, 360 km from Hanoi.The greater area of Ha Tinh city consists of the core city with 10 wards and a rural suburb with 6 communes. The land area of the inner city is 2,377ha and the suburb is 3,156 ha. Like Tam Ky, Ha Tinh is also a case, where political wish the planning orientation dominates, only because of the administrative title of this city. Huge area is foreseen for urban development, all in low areas and should be filled. Therefore considerable environment shifts and changes will be expected, with unpredictable consequences.Especially the new development in the suburb, south of the river will bring inadequate cost at least in the next decades. This development will force the hard embank-ment of the river in both sides.The north expansion is the most risky part, because here is lowest part, full effect of tidal and local flooding. All this orientation is problematic, since the economic strategy of Ha Tinh province is to concentrate in the Vung Ang industrial zone. When Vung Ang develops its own administrative and service center in Ky Anh and Ky Trinh, the importance of Ha Tinh city will be reduced. It is no reason to plan such an extension of Ha Tinh city in the next few decades.

CITY OF

HA TINH

Special protecƟonlandscape protecƟon

Development zone

Stable core

Ha Tinh master plan 2025 Ha Tinh administration Planned extention Vung Ang industrial zone

Airal photography of Ha Tinh

HAZARDSHa Tinh is one of the city with highest climate risk in the MoC list. It is affected by all main hazards, such as flooding, storm, sea level rising, drought and salination.FLOODING: The inner city is naturally framed by a system of rivers, what already shows its close relationship with water and all its chances and challenges. Most of the surface of the city is formed by river sedimentation. Big areas are still used for cultivation of water rice. The meander forms of the rivers and remaining Oxbows reveal, that the rivers are very shallow; the delta still very young and flooding should be natural phenomenon. Ha Tinh city belongs to zone with lot of rain as well as heavy rain occurrence, so it has average rainfall of 2,661mm/year and extreme rainfall of 657mm/day. Though the basin of Ha Tinhs river is not very big, the city is still threated by flooding, due to its very low topography. The average level of the city ground is low (0.5-3m). Average ground level is between 2-3m in residential zones, 1m in rice fields and between 0.7-1m along the Rao Cai river. This level is in the nature not safe for flooding. Max water level from Rao Cai River is 2.8m, higher than most of the areas in the city. There is additional problem of hard embankment of the rivers, riverbank erosion, and sedimentation in river mouth. By breaking of the dyke in crises time, almost the whole city could be flooded. Ke Go lake is a big water reservoir, but could cause serious flooding in crisis time. Ha Tinh experiences strong influence from tidal phenomenon. High tides together with heavy rain often cause river flooding, and salt intrusion in dry season up to 24km expanded in land. Low areas along the rivers are most influenced.With the build of dams and dykes, the city is at the moment relatively safe against riverine flooding. In the last years, there were only small scale flooding within short time occurred. However the flooded area and number of affected peoples was considerable. The consequences due to pollution of those flooding is still not yet enough evaluated. In the other side, it will be only the question of time, the city drainage may collapse especially in flooding times, causing local flooding in large scale.One positive side of the sprawl development in the case of Ha Tinh city is, that a lot of void and green spaces can remain within the city. With a good planning and appropriate management, the problem of flooding can be controlled by using these spaces, while providing landscape and recreation for the inhabitants. Though the area along the water is declared as landscape protection zone, it is not really “room for water”, but only a stable corset. There is instable relationship between the dykes systems and the protection of the river mouth zone. Embankment will lead to the fill of the mangroves and river mouth. Underground water level is between 0.4-1m, which is very sensitive with pollution. Deeper ground water layers are salted.Due to increased drought with seawater intrusion, in combination with dyke system, the areas along rivers in Ha Tinh was more and more saline. People have changed the production from planting to sea species aquaculture. This production is extremely influenced by drought and flooding. STORM AND TYPHOON:Ha Tinh city has north central climate zone with 2 clear seasons: winter dry and cold, from November-April and summer wet and hot, from May to October. Ha Tinh city is influenced by various winds: main wind south west and north east (Laos wind from south west in summer, winter wind from north east). Heavy wind from north west, south east. But due to special regional geographic characters, the city of Ha Tinh seems to be a special climatic zone, much less influenced by the Laos wind than the surrounding areas (Vinh – Nghe An province, Ky Anh district, and Quang Binh province etc.). The influence of this wind is negligible. The cold north east wind has full effect in Ha Tinh. But the cold in this region (min. 7ºC) is not a real hazard. In the last 10 years, the Ha Tinh city had little problems with storm, typhoon. Though there were occurrence of storm Nr.4 in 2000, storm Nr.5 in 2001, typhoon in 2004, and storms Nr.5,6 in 2006 in Ha Tinh province, but only 1 storm Wu Kong in 2000 hit directly the city. Since the geography of the city is rather flat, the south east and east part of the city will be most affected by storm and typhoon.

Existing nature Planned nature Natural protection zone

Storm in Ha Tinh province from 1945 to 2009In scenario of sea level rise 1m, Ha Tinh is in threated zone The total basin of Ha Tinh about 1100km2

October 2013 the city was under water. especially street:Phan Dinh Phung, Hai Thuong Lan Ong, Nguyen Du, Ly Tu Trong, Nguyen Cong Tru, Phan Dinh Giot

Flooding zones in Ha Tinh city

No. Wards Area (ha)

Flooding area (ha)

Flooding depth (m)

Flooding duration

(h)

No. of affected people

No. of flooding

times per year

1 Bac Ha 115 40 0.3-0.4 2-3 3,800 2-3

2 Nam Ha 109 30 0.4-0.5 4-5 2,500 3-4

3 Tan Giang 105 30 0.3-0.4 2-3 2,300 2-3

4 Tran Phu 146 70 0.5-0.6 4-5 2,000 3-4

Total 475 170 10,600

DEMOGRAPHYThe population of Ha Tinh city in 2012 is 95,740 people, of which 69,250 are living in inner city and 26,490 are in suburb. Average population density of Ha Tinh city is 1,691 persons/km2 .In general, there is no extreme moving from rural area to city. Population density relatively low, even in the city center. No concentration of urban poor in slums or similar areas. In general no extreme vulnerability in demographic sense in current situation, but can be worse in future.With the current stage of information and desk review, there is very difficult to identify the problems and vulnerable zones and groups in Ha Tinh city. It is also not easy to identify concentrated zone of sensitive communities. The available data is also from 2007, too far away to allow accurate conclusions. We need more information in the provincial and local workshops. But some ideas about selecting of vulnerable zones could be made already:1- zones along the rivers 2- zones with local flooding in the past3- resettlement zones for development projects in the past, especially for the Thach Khe iron mines4- Residential areas in the planned expansion of the city.5- Dai Nai ward is one of the ward recommended by grass root climate change experts.

ASSETS AT RISKProduction sites: There is no real production in the Ha Tinh city, however the few ones already cause pollution because of insufficient technology. In the future, this can change when the iron is explored in Thach Khe. Thousands inhabitants will be resettled. Thach Khe has no direct development connection with Ha Tinh city, more with Vung Ang. But the workers will come from Ha Tinh city. The effect from Thach Khe can spread out everywhere through the water circulation, not only toward the sea, but also back to inland, because of tidal effects.Houses: In 2007, the city has more than 10,000 houses, 63% solid, average 2,2 stores. 20,57m2 house floor/person, 250m2 living area/person. The situation is improved since the last 7 years and now, most of the inner city houses are solid, average about 3 stores.Urban services and facilities: Ha Tinh city has a wide range of urban facilities, such as hospitals, schools, high schools, administrative institutions, markets, train station etc. The scattering of important urban services and built assets over large area in linear form instead of concentration in a city center can reduce the risk of a total collapse by disaster but increase the cost for energy, landfill and infrastructure. Drainage: Ha Tinh has no separate system for runoff water drainage and waste water discharge. There is no waste water treatment therefore increased pollution for surface water and groundwater.Drainage in general is insufficient. Drainage system of Ha Tinh city cannot function during flooding time, because the water level of the rivers is higher than city. Main drainages are along main roads, cover only 57% roads, total length 43,15km (2007). Solid waste and sanitation: 70% of solid waste is collected daily (120m3). Solid waste landfill and cemeteries are too near the residential zones and technical not safe. Only 66% of city households have septic tanks.Traffic: Ha Tinh city has about 180ha road, 18% of surface area. The roads are relatively systematic planned, but at current situation still incomplete. Most remarkable problem is drainage, pavement and planting. One problem is that all the different parts of the road belong to the management of different departments, with no real coordination. In general the roads are not yet planned for climate crises case.

Important BuildingsImportant services

Important roads

Matrix of environmental impacts

Activities Soil Water Air noise

Socio economic

Eco system

Solid waste

Disasters Total

Urban development in the north and east sides

2 3 3 2 3 3 2 18

Urban development in the south and west sides

2 2 2 1 1 2 0 10

Urban life 2 3 2 1 1 3 0 12

Land use change and new urban construction

3 1 0 1 2 0 0 7

Migration and resettlement

0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2

Transportation and traffic activities and Ho Do seaport

1 2 2 0 0 1 1 7

Mining industry in Thach Khe

3 3 3 3 2 3 3 20

Industry in the north side of city

1 3 3 2 0 2 0 11

Traditional villages activities

0 0 1 2 0 0 0 3

Infrastructure construction

2 2 1 1 2 1 1 10

Water resources exploitation

2 2 0 0 0 0 0 4

Solid waste management

1 2 1 0 0 0 0 4

Total 19 23 18 15 11 15 7 108

0- Not significant impact; 1- Light impact; 2- Heavy impact; 3 - Very heavy impact

Administrative centers Service and trade centers

Settlement in core zone and suburb Urban and rural settlement in core zone Population density in core zone

QUANG NGAI CITY

INTRODUCTIONQuang Ngai city is the political, economic, cultural, scientific, technical and security - defense centerof Quang Ngai province, located in the geographical coordinates of 15005' - 15008' N and 108034' - 108055' E, about 889km from Hanoi.Quang Ngai city is in the middle of the Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh city, a traffic hub of the central region and central highlands. The city has 8 urban wards and 2 suburb communes with a total natural land area of 3717 km2.

The most remarkable characteristic of Quang Ngai is its association with Dung Quat Economic Zone and the Oil raffinery Plant No. 1. This economic zone is one of the most importanteconomic zone in Vietnam. Thanks this zone, Quang Ngai province had developed from one of the poorest province to a leading economic force in the central region. The city of Quang Ngai has profited a lot from Dung Quat. In other side, it is forced to develop to the northern part of the Tra Khuc river, in order to control the economic zone. In the master plan,the city will be developed almost symetricalin both sides of Tra river, with the northern part almost merged with the Dung Quat Economic Zone. This orientation is extremly risky, since the north part is very low and flooded annually.

The second development direction is toward the sea associated with My Khe and Nghia An beach resorts, Sa Ky port and the coastal economy line of Quang Ngai province.Quang Ngai city will be divided into 4 basic functional areas: downtown area, river banks and sea area, eco-park area and marine area.

In 2015,Quang Ngai city will have a total area of about 6,289ha and will increase to 14,230ha in 2030. (4 times of the existing urban surface) Urban area will be expanded to 10,179ha. Alone the down-town area will be over 4,000ha in 2030 with expected population of about 194,000 persons. The river bank area will be fully exploited for development of high-density urban areas and construction of health centers of high quality.

Unlike Ha Tinh, where the plan could be consider genuine political will without appropriate economic base, the planned development of Quang Ngai has more chance to be realized. The bigger could be the consequences of such planning, because almost all the new areas are in risky zone.

Quang Ngai city in its relation to Dung Quat industrial zone New development strategy with symetric expansion in both sides of the river

HAZARDSThe existing city of Quang Ngai is not classified as a high risk city by MoC, because it has comparing to other places in the central regions less impacts from climate events. Most of natural disasters often occur in rainy season, which is in the period from September to December. Heavy rains associates with flood season, heavy storm and typhoon, flash flood, inundation, and landslides.The natural system consists of following components:1- River system – permanent water channels2- sand banks and riverbeds: frequent flooding area by high water3- river delta: flooded by more extreme events4- Collins and higher grounds5- sand dunes and sea influenced area6- Sea and beachThe whole green and blue area is one organic system. The Tra Khuc river needs a lot of roomIn the new planning, the river is embanked and fixed with dykes. It is cut from the rest of the delta. The green areas are reduced and without connection. By such a wild river, this kind of artificial intervention can lead to fatal consequences.FLOODING: Quang Ngai is like Tam Ky, situated in the middle central climate zone, with clear dry and rainy season. Heavy rains often occur in the period from September to December, accounting for 70-80% rainfall in the year .Quang Ngai city is located South of the Tra Khuc river. Tra Khuc river is one of the wildest river in the central region, with large catchment area ( about 4300km2, 4 times of the catchment area of Ha Tinh) and high water velocity.The river originates from KonPlong – Kon Tum (1300-1500m high) and goes almost straight to the sea. In rainy season, the water can raise very fast and the riverbank regions are always in changing, with massive sedimentation and erosion.The city area is a mix between thin layers of flat land and small round hills. The average elevation is between 4-9m, in some part only 0,4m about sea level. Since the building of the dyke along Tra Khuc river, the city has almost no problem with riverine flooding in normal times. But as expected, the dyke increased the probability of local flooding, because the water can not be drained.Every year, there are 5-7 floodings in the city. More serious one were in 1999, 2003, 2007, 2009, 2013. In extreme rainfall 1999, 2013, the water level of Tra Khuc River was more than 8,3m, higher than most areas in the city. That means, that the drainage system was totally collapse.And the dyke is not save in extreme event. On Nov. 15th 2013, the south part of the dyke is broken in a heavy rain. Many parts of the city was flooded, also in the core center. Tausends of vehicles were blocked in Quang Ngai. Houses, schools and other important urban facilities were flooded.In general we can say, that all areas under 8m will suffer under drainage problem in extreme flooding events and therefore can be flooded locally, even without the break of dykes. Other zones under 3m will be threated by local flooding even under normal condition, when the drainage pumps can not get all runoff water t o the river.In dry season, drought and salt intrusion, very hot in May often occurred.STORM, TYPHOON:During September -November, sometimes there are 3-4 typhoons with strong wind occurred.During period of 1964-2010, there were 22 storms/typhoons, of which most serious ones are No. 2 in 1989, Chan Chu in 2006 and No. 9 in 2009.The nearer to the beach, the higher is the storm risk.

2013, all most the whole city was under water

TT Type of natural disasters

Degree of hazardsRanksVery

highhigh medium low

1 Typhoon, storm X I2 Flood, inundation X

3 River and seabank erosion

X

II4 Landslide inmountainous area

X

5 East -northwind X

6 Cyclones, strongwind, lʈc, sét

X

7 Flash flood X

III8 Sea level rise X9 drought X10 Slat intrusion X11 Hotdry wind X

IV12 Extreme cold X13 Ice rain X14 Frog X

Allocation of rain intensityIn scenario of sea level rise 1m, Quang Ngai is in threated zoneThe total basin of Quang Ngai about 3400km2

The total basin of Tam Ky about 900km2

Flood map of quang ngai province. the city is in flooded zone

The planned nature with dykes along the riverThe existing natural system

Storm in Quang Ngai from 1945 to 2009

VULNERABLE COMMUNITYQuang Ngai city has population of 113,571 inhabitants. 85% of the populations are living in urban area and 15% are in rural area. Quang Ngai city has population density of 3,055 persons/km2, which is twelvefold average population density of the province. In 2013, there are 753 poor households with 2,102 people, that poverty rate accounts for 2.59%. Until now, there is no special research on vulnerable groups in Quang Ngai. With the existing low density and the extremely large extension planning, vulnerable groups do not seem to concentrate in some small zones.

ASSETS AT RISKTraffic:Though the existing city of Quang Ngai is relatively high comparing to the surrounding regions and therefore less vulnerable by flooding, but it is like an island on a lower area. All the connections to other regions run through lower land. In flooding time, the city is almost isolated.Solid waste management system: Quang Ngai city has quite complete solid waste collection and treatment system. Around 80-90% of solid waste generated are collected and treated at Nghia Ky landfill. The old landfill of 10 ha has no leaches collection system. Newly constructed sanitary landfill nearby (located in territory of 2 communes: Nghia Ky commune, Tu Nghia district and Hanh Dung commune, Nghia Hanh district) has designed area of 20ha and usage duration of 15 years. In 2010, 3 clusters and leaches collection system have been constructed and stared operation.

Current allocation of urban and rural settlement

Existing urban service, concentrated in the higher ground in city center

Planned allocation of urban and rural settlement

Orientation for urban areas, mostly in risky zone allong the river Allocation of important urban service facilities, also in the most risky areas

Master plan of Quang Ngai city

TAM KY CITY

Old part of the city along the national road

Panorama of Tam Ky city

New planned development toward the coast

Proportion of new development comparing to existing city

Tam Phu new city project

Airal photography of Tam Ky

INTRODUCTIONTam Ky is located at the 15° 34’ 0’’ N and 108° 29’ 0’’ E, about 70km from Da Nang city .

9 urban wards and 4 suburb communes

Total natural land area of 9,282ha.

First emergence as small local center of the Ha Dong province (since 1471).

Later remained a small town between the national road and the rail way, with no significant economic or socio cultural role.

Since 1997, Tam Ky has became the administrative center (thi xa) of the Quang Nam province, when Da Nang, as the socio economic and political center of the province, was separated from Quang Nam province to become a central level city and Hoi An as the second strong center also got a special status.

Since 2013, Tam Ky is classified as a city. With this status, Tam Ky is forced to develop its own economic base. 2013, Tam Ky ordered Nikken Seikei to make the general spatial planning for the city until 2025. This plan is now almost approved.

The development strategies of Tam Ky are:

1- Extension of surface to get to higher scale

2- Development toward the sea to become a seaside tourism city

3- Extension of administrative facilities of provincial level to become a real administrative center

4- Developing of own industrial zones

In general, this artificial ambition, which based more on political will than socioeconomic or environ-mental consideration will lead to a chain of severe consequences, including more vulnerability in all kinds of hazards. The biggest problem will be in the extended areas, which are likely in more risky zones and have no real capability to realize the plan.

HAZARDSTAM KY is classified by MoC as a high risk city concerning climate threats. It is strongly influenced by all main hazards in Viet nam in general and in Middle-Middle climate zone in particular.FLOODING:Flooding is the main hazard in Tam Ky. Almost every year, part of the city was flooded several times. Flood can be a result both of rain and river water and from tidal activities. These two elements often come together. In general, the rivers cannot serve as drainage in flooding time. Heavy rains often occur in the period from September to December with monthly rainfall ranging from around 300mm to more than 1,000mm. Extreme rain events can reach 600mm in one rain. The basin of the rivers in Tam Ky is about … km2. But flooding can also be threated by the water discharge of the Phu Ninh lake.There are two main low lands: one along the coast and one in the middle of the city, in the east of the old city. They are natural water catchment and retention areas. Almost the whole area with dark colors (see map) was regu-larly flooded. Even in the center up to 1m flood level, especially in the VWUHHWV��3KDQ�%ʐL�&KkX��3KDQ�&KkX�7ULQK��7UɞQ�+ɃQJ�ĉɘR��7UɞQ�4Xt�&iS�2007, 12/13 wards and communes of Tam Ky was flooded, 6,7 billions VND loss. 2009, the whole city was under water, 6 persons died, almost 98 billions VND loss (almost 40% of the total income of city government, more than total tax income) Though the new city development is oriented in the higher sand dunes, but the extension of the city in general will lead to the reduction of low land and natural water retention areas. Especially the connection roads between old and new city could become damns across the natural water runoff flow and cause severe local flooding, even not in extreme events.SEA LEVEL RISING:By the very realistic scenario of 1m sea level rising, significant part of the city will be affected, especially the coastal zone and the low land. This rising in addition with storm surge, rainfall will cause much more prob-lem than it is today, since almost the whole drainage system will be collapsed.STORMS, WIND: Tam Ky is influenced by typical cold north-east, stormy south-east, and hot dry south-west wind like other cities in central region. Because of its com-plex topography, the influence of different winds is also very complex. Depend on the orientation of the slopes; we have a complex allocation of sites affected by different winds.In general, the coastal area is most affected by storm, while the old city part is more or less protected by the primary and secondary sand dunes.The development toward the sea with resorts along the coast and city center on the top of the sand dunes will increase the vulnerability by storm and typhoon. DROUGHT, SALT PENETRATION AND HIGH TEMPERATURE:The hot, dry summer can cope with hot wind from south west to make extreme hot and dry climate in Tam Ky. This high temperature can damage buildings and infrastructures, increase energy costs, diminish working capa-bility and cause fire in the city and stress for its inhabitants. In period of drought, salt penetration will be regular threat. Though salt penetration more problems for the agriculture and aquaculture causes, it also can influence the ground water and fresh water resource of the city. It also can change the physical condition of building soil for the city. Solutions to reduce salt penetration like damns could bring more flooding.

Slope orientation 0-90°

Slope orientation 90-180°

Slope orientation 180-270°

Slope orientation 270-360°

In scenario of sea level rise 1m, Tam ky is in threated zone The total basin of Tam Ky about 900km2

October 2008, almost the whole city of Tam Ky was under water 6WRUP�LQ�4XDQJ�1DP�IURP������WR�����

Topography and allocation of flood risk

Frequently flooded zone in city center

Soil map of Tam Ky

Sites with mineral assetsTOTAL NATURAL RISK MAP

VULNERABLE COMMUNITYThe population of Tam Ky city in 2012 is 110,700 people, of which 83,700 are living in inner city and 27,000 are in suburb. Inner city communities are more vulnerable:The density of the residential area is almost equal in the city and in the suburb. This means, an expansion in the rural area will lead to filling of field and not increasing of density in existing ones. Though the density is almost the same, but the inner city settlements have typical city structures, organizing in dense blocks, defined by streets. The suburb settlements are rural structures, with connection to rice field, defined by ground level. With this characteristic, urban settlements are less natural than rural ones and therefore more vulnerable in natural disasters. The 4 wards An My, An Xuan, Phuoc Hoa and An Son have highest population density due to its small land area and large population . These wards also have a lot of administrative facilities, which could cause more problems for the surrounding communities, since they are raised individually on higher ground level.Special vulnerable groups:There is a statistic about the allocation of most vulnerable groups: disable peoples, poor household, housholds affected by unrealized planning projects, housholds lacking of infrastructures like fresh water supply, electricity, sanitation etc. made by ACVN and the peoples commitee of Tam Ky in a social mapping in the whole area of Tam Ky in 2011. Based on this information, we can allocate the zones with highest concentration of vulnerability factors.But since such condition could change rapidly, this could not be the fix result, but only an approach. Important is the implementation of a mechanism to continue the data collection to update this social vulnerability map.

Affected by unrealized plan Illegal housing Sensitive groups Instable housing Local flooding

Lack of lighting Lack of water supply Lack of electricity No waste collection Bad roads TOTAL SOCIAL RISK MAPS

Built land in rural and urban contextExisting built land Allocation of population density

VULNERABLE ASSETSNatural assets:There are no valuable mineral assets in Tam Ky city, except some building materials, gathering along river banks or in river beds. The most valuable natural assets in Tam Ky are soil, water and landscape.The soil in Tam Ky city is a complex mix formed by river and sea activities. The river zone is alluvial soil, fertile and suitable for planting and agriculture. The sea zone is sand dunes, dry and poor soil, which is not so good for building construction because of low bearing capacity. There is no real consideration of soil condition in the decision about suitable land for development in the general planning. This can lead to a waste of resource by using valuable agriculture lands for city develop-ment.Fresh water is another resource, which is not appropriately taken into account. Under-ground water in Tam Ky is very near surface and therefore easy to be pollutted. Deeper water sources are salted and unusable. Since the city bases on water supply from mountain-ous areas in the west, it does not care so much about the fresh water in the city area. But the pollution of this water source can cause long term consequences.Landscape, especially along the rivers is important natural asset in Tam Ky. With future city development and the trend to employ hard engineering solutions such as damns, dykes, embankment, this landscape could be harmed like everywhere in Vietnam, which will lead to further climate resiliencies problems.Manmade assets: Infrastructure: existing urban roads concentrate in old quarter, have problem with pavement and planting. Since Tam Ky city belongs to a very hot area, espe-cially in dry summer days influencing by Laos wind, therefore, an appropriate street planting and urban green is very important. Like most of other cities in Vietnam, Tam Ky city also do not apply proper technology for street tree planting. Many parts of the roads system are affected by flooding, especially under Climate change. There is no evaluation about this cost.Especially new planed roads across the low land will be affected by flooding, or cause more serious flooding, when it is raised above the flooded level.There is still no evaluation about the risk of railway and train station.Electricity supply and telecommunication system is Tam Ky is in general not save against flooding and was damaged almost in every extreme flooding events.Drainage: In general the drainage is not very efficient. There is no separation between run off and waste water drainage, no purification system. In normal time, waste water will be lead directly into the sea, which will be in conflict with the touristic development along the coast. In flooding time, the waste water cannot be discharged to the sea, and will pollute a big area of the city, inclusive the groundwater. Especially the drainage system in Hoa Thuan ward is almost unfunctionable, causing several flooding per years.Urban service facilities: Tam Ky has a wide range of administrative facilities, concentrating in one place in the center of the city. While those facilities are most easy to manage, since they are in governmental hand, there is no regulation about climate appropriate design of such buildings, such as permeable pavements, roof water collection, planting, drainage, material, energy consumption etc. Many of those facilities stay under direct impact of flooding.The development of touristic zones along the coast, which is a very risky zone, affected both by storms and sea waves, especially when sea level rises. In the past extreme flooding, all important connections in innercity and interregional was blocked. Schools, markets and other administrative facilities are not accessible.Productive sites: Until now, Tam Ky did not have much productive facilities. But in the plan, there will be two industrial zones in the west and north east of the city. The one in the north is planned on lower land and could be risky.Houses: Population and housing survey in 2009 shows that there were 30,940 households living in Tam Ky city, and all of them have houses, of which 99.1% are private houses. However, poverty rate in all 4 communes and some wards are multifold higher com-paring to the remaining wards.Cultural, historical sites: The Ky Anh underground catacombs (427ha) is a big historical zone in Tam Ky. Those it is on higher land, but with the future city development can reduction of water retention areas, even this zone could be affected by local flooding. In that case, the consequence will be fatal.

Most important projects

Allocation of urban services

Strategic structure

WARD SELECTION

INTEGRATED RISK MAP

Total natural risk map

Total social risk map