Update to the 1992 Dry Creek Watershed Flood Control Plan CESI/RBF RR/KM FEMA CTP HYDROLOGY.
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Transcript of Update to the 1992 Dry Creek Watershed Flood Control Plan CESI/RBF RR/KM FEMA CTP HYDROLOGY.
Update to the 1992 Dry Creek Watershed Flood Control Plan
CESI/RBF
RR/KM
FEMA CTP HYDROLOGY
Purpose of the Plan Update• To develop updated hydrologic model that
can adequately evaluate the flood damage reduction potential of achievable projects,
• Asses the impact of the development that has occurred with realistic consideration of the effectiveness of local developer installed detention basins,
• Identify plausible multiple objective regional flood reduction and/or mitigation measures that could be expected to be met with broad support,
• Provide a list of local, cost effective, flood damage reduction projects, and
• Prepare a funding plan consistent with Plan Update project recommendations and current development projections
Update to the 1992 Dry Creek Watershed Flood Control Plan
New Modeling• Major Revisions to the Previous (1992) Plan Model
– Watershed Boundary Changes
Finding Mitigation in the Urbanized Dry Creek Watershed
New Modeling• Major Revisions to the Previous (1992) Plan Model
• Watershed Detail Substantially Increased. 170 watersheds became 1,250+ watersheds.
Finding Mitigation in the Urbanized Dry Creek Watershed
New Modeling• Major Revisions to the Previous (1992) Plan Model
– HEC-HMS replaces HEC-1 for individual hydrograph development portion of modeling.• Integrated GIS functionality• Adds greater Flexibility in Future
– DRY CREEK TOOLBOX
Update to the 1992 Dry Creek Watershed Flood Control Plan
Baseline Comparison1992 Estimated Imperviousness of the Watershed = 17.8%.
Dry Creek Watershed Imperviousness
1992
Finding Mitigation in the Urbanized Dry Creek Watershed
Baseline ComparisonCurrent Estimated Imperviousness of the Watershed = 22.0%.
Dry Creek Watershed Imperviousness
Current
Finding Mitigation in the Urbanized Dry Creek Watershed
Baseline ComparisonFuture General Plan Build-out Estimated Imperviousness = 27.0%.
Dry Creek Watershed Imperviousness
Future GP Build-out
Finding Mitigation in the Urbanized Dry Creek Watershed
Baseline ComparisonThe development area of the watershed has increased from 35,900 acres to 44,400 acres, and will increase to 58,700 acres at General Plan build-out.
Timeline Condition Acreage of Development
(acres)
Rural Residential Portion
(acres)
1992 35,900 9,000
Current 44,400 12,300
General Plan
Build-out
58,700 17,200
Finding Mitigation in the Urbanized Dry Creek Watershed
Historical Flooding in the Watershed
• Documented Recent Major Floods:Feb 1986 (50-100 yr)
Jan 1995 (200-yr)
Dec 1995 (2-yr)
Jan 1997 (10-yr)
Feb 1998 (10-yr)
Dec. 2005 (10-yr)
Finding Mitigation in the Urbanized Dry Creek Watershed
Historical Flooding in the Watershed
• JAN 1995 – 2-day event – 358 Structures Flooded within Roseville.– Rainfall Matched 200-year intensities for a 6-hour and 24-hour
storm event.– Between 3.9 inches and 7.6 inches of rain in Dry Creek Watershed– End of strong (5-year) El Nino/beginning of weak La Nina event
Finding Mitigation in the Urbanized Dry Creek Watershed
Historical Flooding in the Watershed
• What to Avoid!
Update to the 1992 Dry Creek Watershed Flood Control Plan
Historical Flooding in the Watershed
Comparison of Pacific Pressure (El Nino effect)
Update to the 1992 Dry Creek Watershed Flood Control Plan
1986 JAN
1997
JAN
1995
DEC
2005
DEC
1995
JAN
2010
New Modeling• Major Revisions to the Previous (1992) Plan Model
– Hydraulic Routing Model as a Hydrologic Component (HEC-RAS)
Update to the 1992 Dry Creek Watershed Flood Control Plan
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Dry Creek Watershed Study UpdateCalibration
Dry Creek Watershed Study UpdateCalibration
Dry Creek Watershed Study UpdateTechnical Analysis Status
• Raw Precipitation Values published in SWMM
Dry Creek Watershed Study UpdateTechnical Analysis Status
• Raw Precipitation Values published in SWMM
Dry Creek Watershed Study UpdateCalibration
VERNON GAGE - DEC 25 2005 to JAN 13 2006
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
10000
DATE
Flo
w (cf
s) Calib HMS
Gage Measured
Cal RAS
VERNON GAGE - SMALL EARLY EVENT
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
38711.54167 38712.54167
DATE
Flo
w (cf
s) Calib HMS
Gage Measured
Calib RAS
VERNON GAGE PEAK - DEC 31 2005
0
5000
10000
38711.54167 38712.54167
DATE
Flo
w (cf
s)Calib Predict Gage Measured
HEC-RAS
Dry Creek Watershed Study UpdateCalibration
Dry Creek Watershed Study UpdateCalibration
Dry Creek Watershed Study UpdateCalibration
Dry Creek Watershed Study UpdateCalibration
Dry Creek Watershed Study UpdateCalibration
Dry Creek Watershed Study UpdateCalibration
Dry Creek Watershed Study UpdateCalibration
Dry Creek Watershed Study UpdateCalibration
New Modeling• Major Revisions to
the Previous (1992) Plan Model– Storm Centering:
Analysis of all 1200+ storm centers and 4 different potential storm angles at each storm centering location, yielded 7 storm combinations that can control peak flows for the various locations in the watershed.
DRY CREEK TOOLBOX
Dry Creek Watershed Study UpdateTechnical Analysis Status
• Raw Precipitation Values published in SWMM
Dry Creek Watershed Study UpdateTechnical Analysis Status
• Raw Precipitation Values published in SWMM
NOAA 14 AP 6 vs SWMM for Gage 1632
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1
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Time (minutes)
Pre
cip (in
)
NOAA 14 High
NOAA 14 Median
NOAA 14 Low
SWMM 100-year
1632-JAN 1995
1632-DEC 1995
1632-JAN 1997
1632-DEC 2005
NOAA 14 AP 6 vs SWMM for Gage 1632
0
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0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00
Time (days)
Pre
cip (in
)
NOAA 14 High
NOAA 14 Median
NOAA 14 Low
SWMM 100-year
1632-JAN 1995
1632-DEC 1995
1632-JAN 1997
1632-DEC 2005