University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC WRAP Regional Modeling Center WRAP...

University of California Riverside, ENVIRON Corporation, MCNC

WRAP Regional Modeling Center

WRAP Regional Haze CMAQ 1996 Model Performance and for Section 309

March 27, 2003, Denver, CO

Gail TonnesenUniversity of California Riverside



CMAQ DomainCMAQ Domain

Clean boundary conditions and initial conditions using EPA defaults with some updates to BC based on clean IMPROVE sites PM data.



CMAQ Description: April 2001 releaseCMAQ Description: April 2001 release• Domain:

– 85 columns, 95 rows, 18 layers, 36km grid cells horizontally– Lambert-Conformal Projection

• Emissions: based on NEI with many updates:– MOBILE6, EMFAC, Biogenics: BEIS2, Point, Road Dust, Wild Fire

(no Ag or Rx), Point for Mexico, no fugitive dust

• Meteorology:– From EPA MM5 1996 simulation, processed with MCIP v.1– 23 layer MM5 averaged to 18 layers.

• Chemistry: CB-IV with extensions– SO2 oxidation into sulfate aerosol– VOC oxidation into secondary organic aerosol– Coupled with RADM aqueous chemistry

• Advection scheme is PPM



Emissions ProcessingEmissions Processing

• SMOKE is used for emissions processing.

• Ported SMOKE to Linux

• Quality Assurance:

– SMOKE QA reports

– Post processing to total emissions subcategories for all layers and all hours.



Evaluation OverviewEvaluation Overview

• IMPROVE database:– Raw Dataset

• Analysis period:– Year 1996– total of 104 days available ambient data– Raw: ~53 stations

• Evaluation species– SO4, NO3, Bext, PM2.5, PM10, OC, EC



IMPROVE & Protocol Sites for EvaluationIMPROVE & Protocol Sites for Evaluation

No 1996 IMPROVE Data with 1996 IMPROVE Data



CASTNET Sites for EvaluationCASTNET Sites for Evaluation

No 1996 CASTNET Data with 1996 CASTNET Data



CMAQ to IMPROVE Species MappingCMAQ to IMPROVE Species MappingCompound IMPROVE Species CMAQ Mapping

SO4 SO4 ASO4J + ASO4I

NO3 NO3 ANO3J + ANO3I

OC 1.4*(OC1+OC2+OC3+OC4+OP) AORGAJ + AORGAI + AORGPAJ + AORGPAI + AORGBJ + AORGBI

EC (LAC) EC1+EC2+EC3-OP AECJ + AECI

SOIL 2.2*Al + 2.49*Si + 1.63*Ca + 2.42*Fe + 1.94*Ti

A25I +A25J

PM2.5_Measured

(PM25)

MF 1.375*(ASO4J + ASO4I) + 1.29*(ANO3J + ANO3I) + (AORGAJ + AORGAI + AORGPAJ + AORGPAI + AORGBJ + AORGBI) + (AECJ + AECI) + (A25J + A25I)

PM2.5_Recon (RCFM)

1.375*SO4 +1.29*NO3 + EC + OC + SOIL

Same as PM2.5_Measured

CM MT-MF ACORS + ASEAS + ASOIL

PM10 MT 1.375*(ASO4J + ASO4I) + 1.29*(ANO3J + ANO3I) + (AORGAJ + AORGAI + AORGPAJ + AORGPAI + AORGBJ + AORGBI) + (AECJ + AECI) + (A25J + A25I) + (ACORS + ASEAS + ASOIL)

Bext_Reconstructed

(1/Mm)

10 + 4.125*f(RH)b*SO4 + 3.87*f(RH)*NO3 + 4*OC + 10*EC + SOIL + 0.6*CM

10 + 4.125*fRH*(ASO4J + ASO4I) + 3.87*fRH*(ANO3J + ANO3I) + 4*(AORGAJ + AORGAI + AORGPAJ + AORGPAI + AORGBJ + AORGBI) + 10*(AECJ + AECI) + (A25J + A25I) + 0.6*(ACORS + ASEAS + ASOIL)



Modeling Evaluation ProcedureModeling Evaluation Procedure

• Analysis procedures:– Compute daily averaged model level-one

concentration.

– Extract species information & concentration from IMPROVE datasets

– Identify monitoring sites within model domains (convert lat/lon into grid cell)

– Match model predictions with IMPROVE datasets

– Generate scatter plots and time-series plots of model results vs. IMPROVE datasets.



Results from Analysis ProgramResults from Analysis Program((complete results at: www.cert.ucr.edu/rmc)complete results at: www.cert.ucr.edu/rmc)

• Time series data• Scatter plots

– All Site and All Days– All Site for One Day– All Days for One Site– All Days for Defined Sub-regions

• Statistical analysis– Regression (r-squared)– Mean normalized bias (MNB) and error (MNE)

o

op

C

CC

NMNB

1100(%)

o

op

C

CC

NMNE

1100(%)



Annual Time-Series Plots – SOAnnual Time-Series Plots – SO44

Bryce Canyon, UT Grand Canyon, AZ



Annual Time-Series Plots – NOAnnual Time-Series Plots – NO33




Annual Time-Series Plots – OCAnnual Time-Series Plots – OC




Annual Time-Series Plots – EC Annual Time-Series Plots – EC




Annual Time-Series Plots – SOIL Annual Time-Series Plots – SOIL




PM2.5 mass composition at Grand Canyon Nat’l Park, PM2.5 mass composition at Grand Canyon Nat’l Park, AZ - SummerAZ - Summer



PM2.5 mass composition at Grand Canyon Nat’l PM2.5 mass composition at Grand Canyon Nat’l Park, AZ - WinterPark, AZ - Winter



1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

NO

3S

OIL

RC

FM

SO

4P

M2

5E

C

OC

PM

10

CM

-100

400

900

1400

1900

(%)

Month

CMAQ_Mean Normalized Bias

NO3

SOIL

RCFM

SO4

PM25

EC

OC

PM10

CM



Grand Canyon NP

0

10

20

30

40

50

OBS Best CMAQ Best OBS All CMAQ All OBS Worst CMAQ Worst

Ext

inct

ion

(Mm

^-1)

Average of bCM

Average of bSOIL

Average of bEC

Average of bOC

Average of bNO3

Average of bSO4

bRAY

Best 20% All days Worst 20%



Petrified Forest NP

0

10

20

30

40

50

OBS Best CMAQ Best OBS All CMAQ All OBS Worst CMAQ Worst

Ext

inct

ion

(Mm

^-1)

Average of bCM

Average of bSOIL

Average of bEC

Average of bOC

Average of bNO3

Average of bSO4

bRAY

Best 20% All days Worst 20%



Conclusions for 1996 Model Conclusions for 1996 Model Performance EvaluationPerformance Evaluation

• Model over predicts most species in the winter.• Model performance is best in summer.• Model does not get the peaks on the correct day:

– Precedent from SAMI longterm regional O3 model

– Should consider “unpaired in time & space” evaluation.

• Coarse mass is under predicted– Missing windblown dust emissions inventory.

• Many upgrades planned for Section 308 modeling.



Sensitivity RunsSensitivity Runs

• EPA modeling showed strong seasonality in NH3 emissions:– We reduced winter NH3 emissions by 50%

– This reduced the NO3 over prediction to be consistent with other species.

– Still need to explore winter vertical mixing.

• Western BC were too high– Reduced western BC based on IMPROVE data at clean

western sites.



Sensitivity to 50% NH3 change

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