Universal laws & the case of cholera
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Transcript of Universal laws & the case of cholera
Universal Laws &the Case of Cholera
John P. McCaskey
The Case of Cholera
Venise, 1493
100s 200s 1500s 1600s 1700s
Lugduni Batavorum: 1592.
1493
Lugduni Batavorum: 1746
1592
1746
A.D. 40
• Diarrhea• Vomiting• Flatulence• Turning of the intestines• Ejection both upwards and
downwards of bile that resembles water at first, but then looks as if meat had been washed in it, sometimes white, sometimes black or variegated.
1820s 1830s 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s 1880s 1890s 1900s 1910s 1920s
18191829
C. accidentalisC. spontanea
Summer cholera Infants cholera Cholera with fever Cholera without fever Cholera from
poisoning Cholera from eating
something undigestible
Contagious cholera Non-contagious
cholera Indian /Asiatic cholera “True” cholera
C. spontaneaC. accidentalis
Epidemic C.C. Morbus=
1820s 1830s 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s 1880s 1890s 1900s 1910s 1920s
1825
C. spontaneaC. accidentalis
Epidemic C.C. Morbus ≠ ?
1820s 1830s 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s 1880s 1890s 1900s 1910s 1920s
1832
=
Epidemic CholeraCholera Morbus
Broad Street Pump Epidemic
1820s 1830s 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s 1880s 1890s 1900s 1910s 1920s
1854
C. spontaneaC. accidentalis
1820s 1830s 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s 1880s 1890s 1900s 1910s 1920s
Epidemic CholeraCholera Morbus
Asiatic CholeraBilious CholeraEuropean CholeraCholera InfantumCholera Morbus
1870
C. spontaneaC. accidentalis
1820s 1830s 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s 1880s 1890s 1900s 1910s 1920s
Epidemic CholeraCholera Morbus
Asiatic CholeraBilious CholeraEuropean CholeraCholera InfantumCholera Morbus
Robert KochLouis Pasteur
Cholera OutbreakCairo
1883
C. spontaneaC. accidentalis
1. Is cholera produced by a specific infectious material that comes only from India?
7. Can the infectious material be found in vomit, or also in blood, urine, sweat, and breath?
16. Is evidence of the comma bacillus diagnostically valuable?
“True cholera”(wirklich,
echt)
1894
1820s 1830s 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s 1880s 1890s 1900s 1910s 1920s
Epidemic CholeraCholera Morbus
Asiatic CholeraBilious CholeraEuropean CholeraCholera InfantumCholera Morbus
Asiatic Cholera Cholera:Cholera InfantumCholera Morbus
1910
2015
1914
A Universal Exceptionless Scientific Law
A person kept away from the bacterium Vibrio cholerae cannot get cholera.
The Case of Tides
http://www.dec.ny.gov/lands/66641.html http://www.amusingplanet.com/2012/03/tides-at-bay-of-fundy.html
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/high-low-tide-blackpool.jpg https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/high-low-tide-blackpool.jpg
Principia (1687), Proposition LXVI
1687 1882Isaac Newton
William Thomson (Lord Kelvin)
1882William Thomson (Lord Kelvin)
A Universal Exceptionless Scientific Law
Maximum amplitude of tides occurs when earth, sun and moon align.
Ohm’s Law
http://ruralmissouri.coop/09pages/09JanLightBulbMakers.html
http://airborn.com.au/photo1/davercon.jpg https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:3_Resistors.jpg
18731827
Georg Ohm James Clerk Maxwell
1873 James Clerk Maxwell
A Universal Exceptionless Scientific Law
In a resistor, current increases when voltage increases.
http://www.batesville.k12.in.us/physics/phynet/e%26m/current/labs/images/complete_circuit.gif
Cholera is a malady with vomiting, diarrhea, intestinal griping, no urination, spasms in the leg.
Cholera is an intestinal infection caused by Vibrio cholerae.
Tides are regular rising and falling of sea levels that occur about twice a day.
Tides are regular rising and falling of sea levels caused by gravitational forces.
Dew is moisture on the ground after nights when there was no rain.
Dew is droplets that appear on exposed objects in the morning or eveningdue to condensation.
Electrical resistance is a material’s opposition to the passage of electricity.
The resistance of a device is the ratio of voltage across it to current through it.
Cholera can be prevented by eliminating Vibrio cholerae.
Greatest amplitude of tides occurs when sun, moon, and earth align.
Nominal Definition
Definition by Formal Cause
Universal Statements
In a resistor, current increases when voltage increases.
Dew will not form on surfaces warmer than the surrounding air.
Boundaries can be changed.
Personal and discretionary
Good, bad, better, worse
Evolve and mature
Boundaries differ in stability.
Concepts are Organic
Boundaries can be changed.
Personal and discretionary
Good, bad, better, worse
Evolve and mature
Boundaries differ in stability.
Concepts are Organic
ConceptualBoundaries
Clarity
Stability
Commu-nication
Inter-personal RelationsComplete
-ness
. . .
Consistency
Parsimony
Concepts are Organic
ConceptualBoundaries
Clarity
Stability
Commu-nication
Inter-personal RelationsComplete
-ness
. . .
Consistency
Parsimony
Essentialized definitions• eliminate fuzziness • promote stability• enable universal laws
Clarity
Stability
epistemeCommu-nication
Inter-personal Relations
Consensus is• only one desideratum• not necessary• also organic
Boundaries can be changed.
Personal and discretionary
Good, bad, better, worse
Evolve and mature
Boundaries differ in stability.
Scientific Knowledge
• Discretionary• Subjective• Arbitrary
• Intrinsic• Goal-Directed• Normative• Good / Bad
Objective
Philosophers of sciencecommonly concedethat early philosophersof science werehopelessly confused.
1973
Philosophers of sciencecommonly concedethat early philosophersof science werehopelessly confused.
1973The Problem of Induction
All swans are white.
All emeralds are green.
Every spring exerts a force proportional to displacement.
Every red-hooded tanager (piranga rubriceps) has a red head.
Particular & universal propositions
Particular things & universal terms
Two Conceptions of Induction
?Induction is a proceeding from particulars to a universal.
Socratic Induction
Scholastic Induction
Prosecuting a wrongdoer, even if your own father.What is piety?
That’s an example. What is piety itself? Doing what pleases the gods.
But gods disagree.
And there are many kinds of disagreement:
Disagreement over which number is greater.
Disagreement over which thing is larger.
Disagreement over which thing is heavier.
Disagreement over just and unjust.
Disagreement over beautiful and ugly.
Disagreement over good and bad.
Piety is what pleases all gods.But is it pious because it pleases the gods or does it please the gods because it is pious?
What is loved vs. what loves.
What is the difference?
What is led vs. what leads.
What is seen vs. what sees.
So . . . what is admired vs. what admires.
I don’t know which.
Let’s start over. Isn’t everything pious also just but not vice versa?
Yes.
Then p iety is a k ind of just ice. What kind?
Two things may be ascribed to Socrates: inductive reasoning and universal definitions.
Socratic Induction
A kind of inference that gains force the more it is like a complete enumeration, an argument that can be rendered as a syllogism.
A kind of inference inferior to deduction.
Positive instances determine reliability.
Particulars and universals are primarily propositions
A compare-and-contrast process for discovering properties that characterize all members of a kind, some of which are unique to the kind, some of which even define the kind.
Not an inference and not inferior to deduction.
Breadth and depth of comparisons determine reliability.
Particulars and universals are primarily things, concepts, or terms.
Scholastic Induction
Socratic Induction
Ampliation takes place at the propositional level.
Ampliation takes place at the conceptual level.
Tradition of Socratic Induction
Cholera is a malady with vomiting, diarrhea, intestinal griping, no urination, spasms in the leg.
Cholera is an intestinal infection caused by Vibrio cholerae.
Tides are regular rising and falling of sea levels that occur about twice a day.
Tides are regular rising and falling of sea levels caused by gravitational forces.
Dew is moisture on the ground after nights when there was no rain.
Dew is droplets that appear on exposed objects in the morning or eveningdue to condensation.
Electrical resistance is a material’s opposition to the passage of electricity.
The resistance of a device is the ratio of voltage across it to current through it.
Cholera can be prevented by eliminating Vibrio cholerae.
Greatest amplitude of tides occurs when sun, moon, and earth align.
Nominal Definition
Definition by Formal Cause
Universal Statements
In a resistor, current increases when voltage increases.
Dew will not form on surfaces warmer than the surrounding air.