Universal approximators for direct policy search in multi ......Francesca Pianosi Rodolfo...

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Universal approximators for direct policy search in multi-purpose water reservoir management: A comparative analysis Matteo Giuliani Emanuele Mason Andrea Castelletti Francesca Pianosi ⇤⇤ Rodolfo Soncini-Sessa Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy (e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]). ⇤⇤ Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK (e-mail: [email protected]). Abstract: This study presents a novel approach which combines direct policy search and multi-objective evolutionary algorithms to solve high-dimensional state and control space water resources problems involving multiple, conflicting, and non-commensurable objectives. In such a multi-objective context, the use of universal function approximators is generally suggested to provide flexibility to the shape of the control policy. In this paper, we comparatively analyze Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Radial Basis Functions (RBF) under dierent sets of input to estimate their scalability to high-dimensional state space problems. The multi-purpose HoaBinh water reservoir in Vietnam, accounting for hydropower production and flood control, is used as a case study. Results show that the RBF policy parametrization is more eective than the ANN one. In particular, the approximated Pareto front obtained with RBF control policies successfully explores the full tradeospace between the two conflicting objectives, while the ANN solutions are often Pareto-dominated by the RBF ones. Keywords: radial basis functions; artificial neural networks; direct policy search; multi-objective optimization; environmental engineering 1. INTRODUCTION The optimal operation of water resources systems is a wide and challenging application domain for optimal control methodologies and tools. Most of the operation prob- lems involving water resources systems can be formulated as Markov decision processes (MDP, see White (1982)) and solved via Dynamic Programming or Reinforcement Learning (Powell, 2007; Busoniu et al., 2010). For exam- ple, water reservoir operations are a sequence of release decisions, made at discrete time instants, over a system af- fected by stochastic disturbances (i.e., inflows). Similarly, well field operations are a sequence of pumping rate deci- sions, made at discrete time instants and dierent points in space, over a system aected by stochastic disturbance (i.e., groundwater recharge). Although DP family methods can be applied under mild assumptions, such as the disturbance process is time- independent and the objective functions must be time- separable, they suer from a well known dual curse which prevents them from being employed to solve large-scale control schemes: i) the curse of dimensionality (Bellman, 1957), namely the computational cost of DP grows expo- ? Matteo Giuliani was partially supported by Fondazione Fratelli Confalonieri. Emanuele Mason was supported by the Integrated and sustainable water Management of the Red-Thai Binh Rivers System in changing climate. nentially with state, decision, and disturbance vectors; and ii) the curse of modeling (Tsitsiklis and Van Roy, 1996), meaning the use of in-line model-based computations that make impossible the direct, model-free use of exogenous information into the controller and the use of process- based simulation models (e.g., hydrodynamic and ecolog- ical). Yet, when adapted to the water resources domain, DP-based approaches suer from another curse that might overly aect the computational requirements: DP methods are inherently single-objective, while the management of water resources very often involves multiple, incommensu- rable objectives. The only way to turn DP into a multi- objective algorithm is to re-formulate the multi-objective control problem as a family of parametric single-objective problems and reiteratively running a single-objective opti- mization for dierent values of the parameters to approx- imate the continuous Pareto front of the original multi- objective problem. This remarkably aects the compu- tational requirements, as the number of single-objective problems to solve grows exponentially with the objectives number and most of the water resources problems involves more than four or five objectives (e.g., Castelletti et al., 2013a). Approximate DP methods have been developed to over- come the above limitations. However, most of them (e.g., model predictive control, chance-constrained con- trol) maintains the DP structure, computing approxima- Proceedings of the 19th World Congress The International Federation of Automatic Control Cape Town, South Africa. August 24-29, 2014 978-3-902823-62-5/2014 © IFAC 6234

Transcript of Universal approximators for direct policy search in multi ......Francesca Pianosi Rodolfo...

Page 1: Universal approximators for direct policy search in multi ......Francesca Pianosi Rodolfo Soncini-Sessa ⇤ Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Politecnico

Universal approximators for direct policy

search in multi-purpose water reservoir

management: A comparative analysis

Matteo Giuliani

⇤Emanuele Mason

⇤Andrea Castelletti

Francesca Pianosi

⇤⇤Rodolfo Soncini-Sessa

⇤ Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering,Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy (e-mail: [email protected];

[email protected]; [email protected];[email protected]).

⇤⇤ Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK(e-mail: [email protected]).

Abstract: This study presents a novel approach which combines direct policy search andmulti-objective evolutionary algorithms to solve high-dimensional state and control space waterresources problems involving multiple, conflicting, and non-commensurable objectives. In sucha multi-objective context, the use of universal function approximators is generally suggested toprovide flexibility to the shape of the control policy. In this paper, we comparatively analyzeArtificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Radial Basis Functions (RBF) under di↵erent sets ofinput to estimate their scalability to high-dimensional state space problems. The multi-purposeHoaBinh water reservoir in Vietnam, accounting for hydropower production and flood control,is used as a case study. Results show that the RBF policy parametrization is more e↵ective thanthe ANN one. In particular, the approximated Pareto front obtained with RBF control policiessuccessfully explores the full tradeo↵ space between the two conflicting objectives, while theANN solutions are often Pareto-dominated by the RBF ones.

Keywords: radial basis functions; artificial neural networks; direct policy search;multi-objective optimization; environmental engineering

1. INTRODUCTION

The optimal operation of water resources systems is a wideand challenging application domain for optimal controlmethodologies and tools. Most of the operation prob-lems involving water resources systems can be formulatedas Markov decision processes (MDP, see White (1982))and solved via Dynamic Programming or ReinforcementLearning (Powell, 2007; Busoniu et al., 2010). For exam-ple, water reservoir operations are a sequence of releasedecisions, made at discrete time instants, over a system af-fected by stochastic disturbances (i.e., inflows). Similarly,well field operations are a sequence of pumping rate deci-sions, made at discrete time instants and di↵erent pointsin space, over a system a↵ected by stochastic disturbance(i.e., groundwater recharge).Although DP family methods can be applied under mildassumptions, such as the disturbance process is time-independent and the objective functions must be time-separable, they su↵er from a well known dual curse whichprevents them from being employed to solve large-scalecontrol schemes: i) the curse of dimensionality (Bellman,1957), namely the computational cost of DP grows expo-

? Matteo Giuliani was partially supported by Fondazione Fratelli

Confalonieri. Emanuele Mason was supported by the Integrated and

sustainable water Management of the Red-Thai Binh Rivers System

in changing climate.

nentially with state, decision, and disturbance vectors; andii) the curse of modeling (Tsitsiklis and Van Roy, 1996),meaning the use of in-line model-based computations thatmake impossible the direct, model-free use of exogenousinformation into the controller and the use of process-based simulation models (e.g., hydrodynamic and ecolog-ical). Yet, when adapted to the water resources domain,DP-based approaches su↵er from another curse that mightoverly a↵ect the computational requirements: DP methodsare inherently single-objective, while the management ofwater resources very often involves multiple, incommensu-rable objectives. The only way to turn DP into a multi-objective algorithm is to re-formulate the multi-objectivecontrol problem as a family of parametric single-objectiveproblems and reiteratively running a single-objective opti-mization for di↵erent values of the parameters to approx-imate the continuous Pareto front of the original multi-objective problem. This remarkably a↵ects the compu-tational requirements, as the number of single-objectiveproblems to solve grows exponentially with the objectivesnumber and most of the water resources problems involvesmore than four or five objectives (e.g., Castelletti et al.,2013a).Approximate DP methods have been developed to over-come the above limitations. However, most of them(e.g., model predictive control, chance-constrained con-trol) maintains the DP structure, computing approxima-

Proceedings of the 19th World CongressThe International Federation of Automatic ControlCape Town, South Africa. August 24-29, 2014

978-3-902823-62-5/2014 © IFAC 6234

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tions of the Bellman function and solving single-objectiveproblems. In this paper, instead, we combine the directpolicy search (DPS, see Rosenstein and Barto (2001))with multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs),in order to solve high-dimension state and control spaceproblems and find an approximation of the entire Paretofront, and the associated control policies, in a single op-timization run. DPS, also known as parameterization-simulation-optimization in the water resources literature(Koutsoyiannis and Economou, 2003), is a simulation-based approach where the control policy is first param-eterized within a given family of functions and then theparameters optimized with respect to the objectives ofthe control problem. The selection of a suitable class offunctions to which the control policy belong to is a keyoperation, as it might restrict the search for the optimalpolicy to a subspace of the decision space that does notinclude the optimal solution. In the water reservoir liter-ature, a number of parameterizations have been proposed(see Lund and Guzman, 1999, and references therein).However, they are based largely on empirical or experi-mental successes and are designed, mostly via simulation,for single-purpose reservoirs (Lund and Guzman, 1999).In a multi-objective context similar rules can not easilyinferred from the experience and the use of universalfunction approximators (Tikk et al., 2003) is generallypreferred. In principle, universal approximators should becapable of accurately estimating any unknown continuousfunction under very mild assumptions. In practice, theoptimal training of the approximator, and thus its accu-racy, strongly depends on the parameters domain, on thedimensions of the input (state) and output (control) sets,and on the size of the training dataset available (Kurkovaand Sanguineti, 2001).In this paper, we comparatively analyze two among themost commons universal approximators: Artificial NeuralNetworks (Hornik et al., 1989) and Radial Basis Func-tions (Liao et al., 2003). In particular, we assess theire↵ectiveness under di↵erent sets of input to estimate theirscalability to high-dimensional state space problems. Themulti-objective optimization of the policy parameters isperformed using the self-adaptive Borg MOEA (Hadkaand Reed, 2013), which has been shown to be highlyrobust across a diverse suite of challenging multi-objectiveproblems, where it met or exceeded the performance ofother state-of-the-art MOEAs (Hadka and Reed, 2012). Asa study site for the analysis we used the HoaBinh waterreservoir system, a multi-purpose regulated reservoir in theRed River basin (Vietnam). The Red River Basin is thesecond largest basin of Vietnam and the HoaBinh reservoiris regulated to maximize hydropower production and floodcontrol in Hanoi.

2. DIRECT POLICY SEARCH

Water reservoir operation problems generally require totake sequential decisions ut at discrete time instants (t =1, 2, . . .) on the basis of the current system conditionsdescribed by the state vector xt 2 Rn

x . The controlsut 2 Ut(xt) ✓ Rn

u are determined by a control policy ⇡and alter the state of the system according to a probabilis-tic transition function p(xt+1|xt,ut). The combination ofstates and controls defines a trajectory ⌧ over the horizonH, which allows the evaluation of the policy ⇡ as follows:

J⇡ = E[R(⌧)|⇡] =Z

R(⌧)p⇡(⌧)d⌧ (1)

where R(⌧) defines the objective function of the problemand p⇡(⌧) is the distribution over trajectories ⌧ . DP familymethods estimate the expected long-term cost of a policyfor each state xt at time t by means of the value functionV ⇡t (xt), which is defined over a discrete grid of time and

state variables. The optimal policy ⇡⇤ is then derived asthe one maximizing the value function.Direct policy search (DPS, see Rosenstein and Barto(2001)) directly operates in the policy space and avoids thecomputation of the value function. DPS is based on the pa-rameterization of the policies ⇡✓ and the exploration of theparameter space ⇥ with the aim to find a parameterizedpolicy that optimizes the expected long-term performance(assumed to be a cost), i.e.

⇡⇤✓ = argmin

⇡✓

J✓ (2)

where the policy ⇡✓ is parameterized by parameters ✓ 2⇥. Finding ⇡⇤

✓ is equivalent to find the correspondingoptimal policy parameters ✓⇤. Problem (2) is dynami-cally constrained by the transition function of the sys-tem p(xt+1|xt,ut). However, DPS does not provide anytheoretical guarantee on the optimality of the resultingoperating policies, which are strongly dependent on thechoice of the class of functions to which they belong (Sec-tion 2.1) and on the ability of the optimization algorithmto deal with non-linear models and objectives functions,complex and highly constrained decision spaces, and manyconflicting objectives (Section 2.2).Di↵erent DPS approaches have been proposed in the lastdecades and they di↵er in the methods used for the gen-eration of the trajectories as well as for the update andevaluation of the policies (for a review, see Deisenrothet al., 2011, and references therein). In this paper we usea DPS method with the following features:

• Model-based approach: dealing with natural systems,learning a policy through experiments on the realsystem is not possible, as it is time consuming andmight require to acquire experience in dangerousstates of the system. A dynamic model replaces thereal system to perform simulations, based on whichthe policy is determined.

• Stochastic trajectory generation: the dynamic modelof the system is used as simulator for sampling thetrajectories ⌧ . The system evolves according to theprobabilistic transition function p(xt+1|xt,ut) due tothe presence of stochastic disturbances (e.g., reservoirinflow). In particular, we assume the average valueover the time series is equivalent to the expected valueover the probability distribution of the disturbances(Pianosi et al., 2011). The value of the objectivefunction is approximated via simulation over a suf-ficiently long historical or synthetically generated re-alization of the disturbances. Deterministic trajectoryprediction, instead, does not sample the simulatedtrajectories but analytically predicts the trajectoriesdistribution p✓(⌧).

• Episode-based exploration and evaluation: the qualityof a parameter vector ✓ is evaluated as the expectedreturn computed on the whole episode, with theparameter vector ✓ that changes at the start ofthe episode. Conversely, step-based exploration and

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Algorithm 1 Stochastic model-based, episode-based,multi-objective DPS.

Initialization:Random generation of a population {✓1, . . . , ✓P }Iterations: repeat until stopping conditions are met- generation of the trajectory ⌧ i via model simulationaccording to the probabilistic transition functionp(xt+1|xt,ut) and following the policy ⇡✓i (withi = 1, . . . , P )- compute J1

✓i

, . . . , Jq✓i

, with i = 1, . . . , P- generation of a new population by selection, crossoverand mutation with respect to the best individuals (i.e.,the solutions non Pareto-dominated)

evaluation assesses the quality of single state-controlpairs changing the parameters at each time step,but it requires the evaluation of the value function.Moreover, episode-based methods are not restrictedto time-separable cost functions, which can dependon the entire trajectory ⌧ .

• Multi-objective: although most of DPS approachesrelies on gradient-based single-objective optimiza-tion (e.g., Peters and Schaal, 2008), water reser-voir problems are generally framed in complex socio-economic contexts requiring to consider multiple,non-commensurable operating objectives. The single-objective formulation (eqs. 1-2) is replaced by a vec-tor of q objective functions J = [J1, . . . , Jq]. Multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) can beadopted in DPS problems to obtain an approximationof the Pareto front in a single run of the algorithm.

A tabular version of the stochastic, model-based, episode-based, multi-objective DPS approach is reported in Algo-rithm 1. In the next two sections the universal approxi-mators and the MOEA algorithm considered in this studyare described.

2.1 Universals approximators

In the literature, a number of parameterizations of waterreservoir operating rules have been proposed. However,most of them are based on empirical or experimentalsuccesses and were designed, mostly via simulation, forsingle-purpose reservoirs (Lund and Guzman, 1999). Incomplex multi-objective problems, the adoption of univer-sal approximators is generally preferred as it provides moreflexibility to the shape of the control policy. In this paper,we define the parameterized policy ⇡✓ using ArtificialNeural Networks (e.g., Hornik et al., 1989) and gaussianRadial Basis Functions (e.g., Liao et al., 2003). The policyinput vector �t includes the system state xt, with theresulting policy characterized by a closed feedback loop.Moreover, �t includes a time index to identify the day ofthe year. Additional variables might be considered, suchas past observations of the stochastic disturbances.

Artificial Neural Networks

Using ANN to parameterize the policy, the k-th compo-nent in the control vector ut (with k = 1, . . . , nu) is definedas:

ukt = ak +

NX

i=1

bi,k i(�t · ci,k + di,k) (3)

where N is the number of neurons (·) (i.e., hyperbolictangent sigmoid function, which ensures universal approx-imation properties (Hornik et al., 1989)), �t 2 RM thepolicy input vector, ak, bi,k, di,k 2 R, ci,k 2 RM theANN parameters. The parameter vector ✓ is thereforedefined as ✓ = [ak, bi,k, ci,k, di,k], with i = 1, . . . , N andk = 1, . . . , nu, and belongs to Rn

✓ , where n✓ = nu(N(M +2) + 1).

Radial Basis Functions

In the case of RBF policy, the k-th release decision in thevector ut (with k = 1, . . . , nu) is defined as:

ukt =

NX

i=1

wi,k'i(�t) (4)

where N is the number of RBFs '(·) and wi,k the weight ofthe i-th RBF. The weights are formulated such that theysum to one (i.e.,

PNi=1 wi,k = 1) and are non-negative (i.e.,

wi,k � 0 8i, k). The single RBF is defined as follows:

'i(�t) = exp

2

4�MX

j=1

((�t)j � cj,i)2

b2j,i

3

5 (5)

where M is the number of input variables �t and ci,bi arethe M -dimensional center and radius vectors of the i-thRBF, respectively. The centers of the RBF must lie withinthe bounded input space and the radii must strictly bepositive (i.e., using normalized variables, ci 2 [�1, 1] andbi 2 (0, 1]). The parameter vector ✓ is therefore definedas ✓ = [ci,j , bi,j , wi,k], with i = 1, . . . , N , j = 1, . . . ,M ,k = 1, . . . , nu, and belongs to Rn

✓ , where n✓ = N(2M +nu).

2.2 Multi-objective evolutionary algorithms

Multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) are it-erative search algorithms that evolve a Pareto-approximateset of solutions by mimicking the randomized mating,selection, and mutation operations that occur in nature(Coello Coello et al., 2007). These mechanisms allowMOEAs to deal with challenging multi-objective prob-lems characterized by multi-modality, nonlinearity, anddiscreteness (see Nicklow et al. (2010) for an extensivereview of MOEAs applications in water resources).In this paper, we use the self-adaptive Borg MOEA (Hadkaand Reed, 2013), which employs multiple search operatorsthat are adaptively selected during the optimization, basedon their demonstrated probability of generating qualitysolutions. In addition to adaptive operator selection, theBorg MOEA assimilates several other recent advances inthe field of MOEAs, including an "-dominance archivingwith internal algorithmic operators to detect search stag-nation, and randomized restarts to escape local optima.The flexibility of the Borg MOEA to adapt to challenging,diverse problems makes it particularly useful for address-ing DPS problems, where the shape of the operating ruleand its parameter values are problem-specific and com-pletely unknown a priori.

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3. CASE STUDY DESCRIPTION

The Red River Basin (Figure 1) is the second largestbasin of Vietnam, with a total area of about 169,000 km2,of which 48% in China, 51% in Vietnam, and the restin Laos. Of three main tributaries, the Da River is themost important water source, contributing for 42% of thetotal discharge at SonTay. Since 1989, the discharge fromthe Da River has been regulated by the operation of theHoaBinh reservoir. With a storage capacity of 9.8 billionm3, the HoaBinh reservoir is the largest reservoir in use inVietnam and accounts for 15% of the national electricityproduction. The dam operation also contributes to floodcontrol, especially to protect the densely populated cityof Hanoi. Two operating objectives are formulated: i)hydropower Jhyd, defined in eq. (6a) as the daily averageenergy production (kWh/day) at the HoaBinh hydropowerplant, which depends on the reservoir level hHB

t and theturbined flow qTurb

t+1 ; ii) flooding Jflo, defined in eq. (6b)as the daily average excess level (cm2/day) in Hanoi withrespect to the flooding threshold h = 950 cm.

Jhyd =1

H

H�1X

t=0

Gt+1(hHBt , qTurb

t+1 ) (6a)

Jflo =1

H

H�1X

t=0

max(hHanoit+1 � h, 0)2 (6b)

The reservoir is modeled by a conceptual water-balanceequation, the hydropower plant by a physically-basedmodel, and flow routing from the reservoir to the city ofHanoi by a lumped, data-driven model. The constraintsof the problem are embedded in the model (Piccardiand Soncini-Sessa, 1991), thus guaranteeing the feasibilityof the designed solutions. The state variable xt is thereservoir storage and the control ut is the release decision.The system is a↵ected by a stochastic disturbance vectorqt+1, comprising the inflow to the reservoir qt+1 andthe lateral flows in the Thao and Lo Rivers qlatt+1 =qThaot+1 + qLo

t+1 which contribute to the flow in Hanoi. Themodeling time step is 24 hours. In the adopted notation,the time subscript of a variable indicates the instantwhen its value is deterministically known. A data-drivenfeedforward neural network provides the level in Hanoigiven the HoaBinh release and the tributaries’ discharges.Further details about the model of the HoaBinh systemcan be found in Castelletti et al. (2012).

3.1 Experiment Setting

The operating policy of the HoaBinh reservoir is param-eterized using ANN and RBF with di↵erent settings interms of policy input and number of neurons/basis, asfollows:

A) 3 inputs (i.e., sin(2⇡t/365), cos(2⇡t/365) and xt) with4 neurons/basis, n✓ = 21 and 28 for ANN and RBF,respectively;

B) 4 inputs (i.e., sin(2⇡t/365), cos(2⇡t/365), xt and qt)with 6 neurons/basis, n✓ = 37 and 54 for ANN andRBF, respectively;

C) 5 input (i.e., sin(2⇡t/365), cos(2⇡t/365), xt, qt andqlatt ) with 8 neurons/basis, n✓ = 57 and 88 for ANNand RBF, respectively;

"

h a i l a n dh a i l a n d

Lo River

Red River

Chai River

Yuan River

Thao River

Da River

Ga m R

iver

105°0'0"E

105°0'0"E

25°0

'0"N

25°0

'0"N

20°0

'0"N

20°0

'0"N0 200100

Km

Sub-basin

Hoa Binhreservoir

Tach Bareservoir

Yen Bai

Vu Quang

VIETNAM

CHINA

LAOSBURMA

Gauging stationHydropower plant

Legend

Hanoi

Fig. 1. The Red River basin with the HoaBinh reservoirconsidered in this study.

We include time t among the policy inputs by means of theterms sin(2⇡t/365) and cos(2⇡t/365), to take into accountthe time-dependency and cyclostationarity of the systemand, consequently, of the control policy (Pianosi et al.,2011). Moreover, the past observations of the inflows qtand qlatt allows to improve the control ability of the policyenlarging the information on the system condition. Thenumber of neurons/basis increases with the number ofpolicy inputs and was fixed via trial-and-error. The di-mensionality of the problem increases moving from settingA to settings B and C, where DP family methods cannotbe applied as the state vector comprises the time index,the reservoir storage, and the additional states required tomodel the inflows qt and qlatt .Since the Borg MOEA has been demonstrated to be rela-tively insensitive to the choice of parameters, we use thedefault algorithm parameterization suggested by Hadkaand Reed (2013). Each optimization was run for 200,000function evaluations. To improve solution diversity andavoid dependence on randomness, the solution set fromeach formulation is the result of 10 random optimizationtrials. In total, each optimization comprises 2 million sim-ulations over the horizon 1962-1969 and requires approxi-mately 5 hours on a 2 processors Intel Xeon E5-2660 2.20GHz with 96 GB Ram. The performance of the resultingpolicies is then computed over the validation horizon 1995-2004, with the final set of Pareto-optimal policies foreach input settings defined as the set of non-dominatedsolutions from the results of all the optimization trials.

4. APPLICATION RESULTS

Figure 2 reports the approximated Pareto front obtainedwith the two universal approximators (i.e., ANN and RBF)for the three input settings simulated over the validationhorizon (1995-2004). The arrows show the direction ofpreference for each objective, with the ideal solution in thetop-left corner of each panel. The approximated Paretofront obtained with RBF policies outperforms the oneobtained with ANN policies over all the input sets. Ingeneral, RBF policies allow a better exploration of thetradeo↵ between Jflo and Jhyd, with the RBF compro-mise solutions Pareto-dominating the corresponding ANN

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Jflo (cm2 / day)

Jhyd (

kWh

/ day

)

x 107

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6(A) 3 policy inputs

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6(B) 4 policy input

200 400 600 800

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6(C) 5 policy input

ANNRBF

ANNRBF

ANNRBF

Fig. 2. Pareto front approximations with di↵erent settingsin terms of control policy input.

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

relea

se (m

/s)

3

50 100 150 200 250 300 3501day

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

stora

ge (M

m )3

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

relea

se (m

/s)

3

50 100 150 200 250 300 3501day

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

stora

ge (M

m )3

(a) Maximum of Jhyd (b) Minimum of Jflo

Fig. 3. Yearly patterns of the HoaBinh storage and releaseover the validation horizon (1995-2004) under the bestANN (red) and RBF (blue) policy for hydropowerproduction (panel (a)) and flood control (panel (b))for input setting C.

solutions. At the two extremes of the Pareto front, theperformance of ANN and RBF is similar. ANN policiesindeed attain the same maximum of hydropower produc-tion of RBF policies (see the top-right part of each panel),with a limited improvement in experiment setting A. Thisis confirmed in Figure 3a, which shows that the yearlypatterns of the reservoir storage and release under theANN and RBF policies attaining the maximum of Jhyd arerather similar (input setting C). Conversely, although bothANN and RBF attain approximately the same minimumvalue of the flooding objective of Jflo (see the bottom-left part of each panel in Figure 2), RBF policies are ableto obtain this performance at higher levels of hydropowerproduction. The reason can be inferred from Figure 3b,which shows that the best RBF policy for flood control(blue) stores more water in the summer period than the

Table 1. Metrics values of the approximatedPareto front shown in Figure 2.

Gen. Distance "-indicator Hypervolume

A) ANN 0.0824 0.476 0.199RBF 0.0207 0.183 0.491

B) ANN 0.0952 0.533 0.0921RBF 0.0113 0.0998 0.579

C) ANN 0.0787 0.531 0.110RBF 0.000713 0.0797 0.658

best ANN policy (red) and therefore can continuouslyguarantee some hydropower release, while the ANN policyoften generates very low releases in this period.The quality of the two approximate Pareto fronts in Figure2 is further analyzed by means of three formal metrics,namely generational distance, additive "-indicator, andhypervolume, which respectively account for convergence,consistency, and diversity (Knowles and Corne, 2002; Zit-zler et al., 2003). In principle, these metrics should becomputed with respect to the optimal Pareto front. Inpractice, since the computation of the optimal Pareto frontvia DP might be impracticable due to the dimensional-ity of the state and objective function vectors, its bestapproximation (also called reference set) is considered.This latter is constructed by selecting all the solutionsnon Pareto dominated obtained in any optimization tri-als. Table 1 reports the three metrics evaluated for thedi↵erent approximated Pareto front shown in Figure 2.The values of the metrics confirm the superiority of theRBF parametrization of the control policies over the ANNone. Hypervolume values of RBF approximations are threeto six times greater than the ones obtained by ANN.Similarly, the "-indicator values for RBF are significantlylower than the ones for ANN, due to multiple gaps in sometradeo↵ regions. Finally, also the generational distanceconfirms that RBF solutions outperform the ANN ones.The superiority of RBF over ANN policies may be ex-plained by the di↵erent definition of the parameter spacein which the solutions are searched for. In the case of RBF,the parameter space is the Cartesian product of the subsets[�1, 1] for each center cj,i and (0, 1] for each radius bj,i andweight wi,k. In the case of ANN, instead, parameters haveno direct relationship with the policy inputs. In this work,the domain �10000 < ak, bi,k, ci,k, di,k < 10000 has beenused as in Castelletti et al. (2013b). Although this largedomain should guarantee flexibility to the ANN structureand prevents that any Pareto-optimal solution be excludeda priori, it makes the search more di�cult and slow downconvergence. It is worth noting that the di↵erence in thenumber of parameters (i.e., 21 for ANN and 28 for RBFwith setting A, which increases to 57 for ANN and 88 forRBF with setting C) seems instead to play a minor role.

5. CONCLUSIONS

The paper presents a comparative analysis of two uni-versal approximators, namely Artificial Neural Networksand Radial Basis Functions, in multi-objective Direct Pol-icy Search problems. The regulation of the multi-purposeHoaBinh water reservoir in Vietnam is used as a casestudy. The combination of DPS with the Borg MOEAshows the potential to overcome the limitation of dynamicprogramming family methods. The proposed method suc-cessfully solves high-dimensional state and control space

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problems and finds an approximation of the entire Paretofront, and the associated control policies, in a single opti-mization run. The comparison of ANN and RBF controlpolicy parameterizations suggests the superiority of RBF,which successfully explores the full tradeo↵ space betweenthe two conflicting objectives. This result can be probablyexplained by the smaller parameters space of RBF withrespect to the one of ANN. Although accurate tuning andpreconditioning of ANN policies improve the performance(Castelletti et al., 2013b), they require a priori informationabout the shape of the optimal policy. RBF policies attaingood results without any preconditioning, thus represent-ing a potentially e↵ective, case-independent option.Future research will focus on estimating the sensitivity ofeach parameterization to the underlying architecture (e.g.,comparison of ANN and RBF with equal number of pa-rameters and varying number and type of neurons/basis).Moreover, we will extend the comparative analysis byincluding other approximators, such as fuzzy systems orsupport vector machine, and by testing the scalability ofeach control policy approximation also with respect to thedimension of the output (control) vector.

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