Textbook Sample

Unit 1

Population

Unit One Population

Part I Pre-reading TaskI. Group Discussion

How do you understand the term “overpopulation”?

To what extent do you think a country’s economic development is impacted by its

population?

II. Pair Work

Work in pairs and discuss the problems brought about by the explosion of the world population.

Part II Text

Five Myths about the World’s PopulationNicholas Eberstadt

The world’s population hit 7 billion people this past week, according to United Nations

estimates, launching another round of debates about “overpopulation,” the environment and

whether more people means more poverty. As we mark this demographic milestone, let’s dispense

with some of the most common misconceptions surrounding the number of humans on the planet.

1. The world is overpopulated.

Sure, 7 billion is a big number. But most serious demographers, economists and population

specialists rarely use the term “overpopulation”—because there is no clear demographic

definition.

For instance, is Haiti, with an annual population growth rate of 1.3 percent, overpopulated? If

2

it is, then was the United States overpopulated in 1790, when the new country was growing at

more than 3 percent per year? And if population density is the correct yardstick, then Monaco,

with more than 16,000 people per square kilometer, has a far greater problem than, say,

Bangladesh and its 1,000 people per square kilometer.

Back in the 1970s, some scholars tried to estimate the “optimum population” for particular

countries, but most gave up. There were too many uncertainties (how much food would the world

produce with future technologies?) and too many value judgments (how much parkland is ideal?).

Even considering resource scarcity isn’t all that helpful. During the 20th century’s population

explosion — when we went from 1.6 billion people to more than 6 billion — real prices for rice,

corn and wheat fell radically, and despite recent spikes, real prices for food are lower than 100

years ago. Prices, of course, are meant to reflect scarcity; by such reasoning, the world would be

less overpopulated today than a century ago, not more.

2. Rapid population growth keeps poor countries poor.

In 1960, South Korea and Taiwan were poor countries with fast-growing populations. Over

the two decades that followed, South Korea’s population surged by about 50 percent and Taiwan’s

by about 65 percent. Yet, income increased in both places, too. Between 1960 and 1980, per capita

economic growth averaged 6.2 percent in South Korea and 7 percent in Taiwan.

Clearly, rapid population growth did not preclude an economic boom in those two Asian

“tigers” — and their experience underscores that of the world as a whole. Between 1900 and 2000,

as the planet’s population was exploding, per capita income grew faster than ever before, rising

nearly fivefold, by the reckoning of economic historian Angus Maddison. And for much of the last

century, the countries with faster economic growth tended to be the ones where population was

growing most rapidly, too.

Today, the fastest population growth is found in so-called failed states, where poverty is

worst. But it’s not clear that population growth is their central problem: With physical security,

better policies and greater investments in health and education, there is no reason that fragile states

could not enjoy sustained improvements in income. 

3. For all its ethical problems, China’s one-child policy boosts its economy.

China’s economic boom has coincided with the promulgation of its one-child policy, which

has used state muscle in an effort to limit births. Both this restrictive policy and the Chinese tilt

3

toward pro-market reforms began in the late 1970s, and since then China’s per capita income has

risen more than eightfold. But that doesn’t mean the two are linked.

Just before the one-child policy was enacted, China’s total fertility rate (births per woman per

lifetime) was about 2.7; today it is believed to be around 1.6, or roughly 40 percent lower.  But

between the late 1960s and the late 1970s, China’s total fertility rate fell from about 5.9 to 2.9

births per woman per lifetime — a sharper drop. Yet China’s per capita economic growth was

much slower back in the decade of 1968-78. 

China’s fertility trajectory in the one-child era does not look strikingly different from those of

many other East Asian and Southeast Asian societies. Much poorer countries, such as Burma, have

very low fertility rates nowadays, even without state birth restrictions. Thus the demographic

impact of China’s policy remains uncertain. But some Chinese demographers suggest that it is

responsible for much of the surplus of baby boys in China in the past generation; if so, a growing

army of essentially unmarriageable young men is hardly auspicious for social stability or

economic progress.    

4. If your population declines, your economy does, too.

Between the 1840s and 1960s, Ireland’s population collapsed, spiraling downward from 8.3

million to 2.9 million. Over roughly that same period, however, Ireland’s per capita gross

domestic product tripled.

More recently, Bulgaria and Estonia have both suffered sharp population contractions of

close to 20 percent since the end of the Cold War, yet both have enjoyed sustained surges in

wealth: Between 1990 and 2010 alone, Bulgaria’s per capita income (taking into account the

purchasing power of the population) soared by more than 50 percent, and Estonia’s by more than

60 percent. In fact, virtually all of the former Soviet bloc countries are experiencing depopulation

today, yet economic growth has been robust in this region, the global downturn notwithstanding.

A nation’s income depends on more than its population size or its rate of population growth.

National wealth also reflects productivity, which in turn depends on technological prowess,

education, health, the business and regulatory climate, and economic policies.  A society in

demographic decline, to be sure, can veer into economic decline, but that outcome is hardly

preordained.

5. The world will have 10 billion people by 2100.

4

No one can know how many people will be alive in 2100 because demographers have no

techniques for accurately projecting our long-term population. The United Nations did predict a

population of 10.1 billion in 2100 earlier this year — but that was just its “medium variant”

projection; it also put out a “high variant” projection (exceeding 15 billion) and a “low variant”

(6.2 billion, lower than the world’s population today).

Further complicating matters, we are seeing unprecedented declines in birth rates in some

low-income countries. In just two decades, for example, total fertility in Oman is estimated to

have fallen by 5.4 births per woman, from 7.9 in the late 1980s to 2.5 in recent years. And just a

few years ago, the United Nations’ “medium projection variant” for Yemen in 2050 exceeded 100

million — now it is down to 62 million.

It would probably take a catastrophe of biblical proportions to prevent global population growth

over the next several decades. But we do not know with confidence just how big the world’s population

will be in 2030, much less 70 years after that.

(1100 words)

New Words

auspicious /ɔ:'spiʃəs/ adj. (formal) showing sins that sth is likely to be successful in the future

吉利的；吉祥的； promising

biblical /'biblikəl/ adj. connected with the Bible; in the Bible 有关《圣经》的；《圣经》中的

coincide /,kəuin'said/ v. ～with 1. (of two or more events) to take place at the same time （两件或更多的事情）同时发生

2. (of ideas, opinions, etc.) to be the same or very similar 相同；相符；极为类似

fertility /fə'tiliti:/ n. the state of being fertile 富饶；丰产；能生育性；可繁殖性；想象力丰富

fragile /'frædʒail / adj. weak and uncertain; easily destroyed or spoilt 不牢固的；脆弱的notwithstanding

/,nɔtwiθ'stændiŋ/

prep. (formal) (also used following th noun it refers to) without being

affected by sth; in spite of sth （亦用于其所指名词之后）虽然；尽管optimum /'ɔptiməm/ adj. the best possible; producing the best possible results 最佳的；最适

5

宜的preclude /pri'klu:d/ v. (formal) to prevent sth from happening or sb from doing sth; to make

sth impossible 使行不通； 阻止； 妨碍； 排除～sth/～sb from doing sth

preordained

/,pri:ɔ:'deind/

adj. (formal) already decided or planned by God or by fate 命中注定的；上天安排的 predestined; ～ to do sth

promulgation

/,prɔməl'ɡeiʃən/

n. Noun form of promulgate

v. to announce a new law or system officially or publicly 宣布；颁布；发布（新法律或法制）

prowess /'prauis/ n. (formal) great skill at doing sth 非凡的技能；高超的技艺；造诣radically /'rædikəli/ adv. radical

adj. concerning the most basic and important parts of sth; thorough and

complete 根本的； 彻底的； 完全的reckoning /'rekəniŋ/ n. the act of calculating sth, especially in a way that is not very exact 估

计；估算；计算robust /rəu'bʌst/ adj. (of a system or an organization) strong and not likely to fail or

become weak （体制或机构）强劲的；富有活力的scarcity /'skεəsəti/ n. If there is a scarcity of sth, there is not enough of it and it is difficult

to obtain it 缺乏； 不足；稀少 shortage

adj. scarce

soar /sɔ:/ v. if the value, amount or level of sth soars, it rises very quickly 急升；猛增

spiral /'spaiərəl/ v. to move in continuous circles, going upwards or downwards 螺旋式上升（或下降）；盘旋上升（或下降）

surge /sə:dʒ/ v. (of prices, profits, etc) to suddenly increase in value （物价、利润等）急剧上升；飞涨；激增n. a sudden increase in the amount or number of sth; a large amount of

sth (数量的)急剧上升；激增；大量；一大批 ～(in/of sth)

tilt /tilt/ n. an attempt to win sth or defeat sb (意欲赢得某物或战胜某人的 )企图；尝试 have a ～at sth

6

trajectory /'trædʒiktəri/ n. (technical) the curved path of sth that has been fired, hit or thrown

into the air （射体在空中的）轨道，弹道，轨迹，流轨unprecedented

/,ʌn'presidəntid/

adj. that has never happened, been done or been known before 前所未有的；空前的；没有先例的

variant /'vεəriənt/ n. a thing that is a slightly different form or type of sth else 变种；变体；变形 ～ (of/on sth)

veer /viə/ v. (of a conversation or way of behaving or thinking) to change in the

way it develops (说话、行为或思想)偏离；改变；转变yardstick /'jɑ:dstik/ n. a standard used for judging how good or successful sth is （好坏或成

败的）衡量标准；准绳

Phrases and Expressions

much less and certainly not 更不用说；更何况 even/still less

dispense with to get ride of sth or stop using it because you no longer need it 摒弃；省掉；不用

per capita for each person 没人的；人均的For all in spite of 尽管；虽然spiral downward to decrease rapidly急剧减少

Notes:

1. About the author

Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist and a demographer by training, is also a senior

adviser to the National Board of Asian Research, a member of the visiting committee at the

Harvard School of Public Health, and a member of the Global Leadership Council at the World

Economic Forum. He researches and writes extensively on economic development, foreign aid,

global health, demographics, and poverty. He is the author of numerous monographs and articles

on North and South Korea, East Asia, and countries of the former Soviet Union. His books range

from The End of North Korea (AEI Press, 1999) to The Poverty of the Poverty Rate (AEI Press,

2008).

2. Haiti

7

Haiti is the the most populous full member-state of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM)-

bloc and also the poorest country in the Americas as per the Human Development Index.

3. Monaco

Monaco, officially the Principality of Monaco, is a sovereign city state on the French Riviera.

Its area is 1.98 km2 (0.76 sq mi), with a population of 35,986, making Monaco the second

smallest and the most densely populated country in the world, as of 2012. The state has no income

tax and low business taxes, and is well-known for being a tax haven. Monaco boasts the world's

highest GDP nominal per capita at $172,676, and GDP PPP per capita at $186,175. Monaco also

has the world's highest life expectancy at almost 90 years, and the lowest unemployment rate at

0%, with over 40,000 workers who commute from France and Italy each day. For the third year in

a row, Monaco in 2011 had the world's most expensive real estate market, at $56,300 a square

meter. According to the CIA World Factbook, Monaco has the world's lowest poverty rate, and the

highest millionaires and billionaires per capita in the world.

4. Bangladesh

Bangladesh, officially the People's Republic of Bangladesh, is a sovereign state located in

South Asia. The capital (and largest city) is Dhaka, which is the hub of all cultural, political and

religious affairs. It is the ninth most populous country and among the most densely populated

countries in the world. A high poverty rate prevails, although the United Nations has acclaimed

Bangladesh for achieving tremendous progress in human development. The country is listed

among the Next Eleven economies.

5. Angus Maddison

Angus Maddison (6 December 1926 – 24 April 2010) was a British economist and a world

scholar on quantitative macroeconomic history, including the measurement and analysis of

economic growth and development. He was Emeritus Professor at the Faculty of Economics at the

University of Groningen (RUG).

6. Burma

Burma, officially the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, is a country in South Asia and

Southeast Asia. At 676,578 km2 (261,227 sq mi), it is the 40th largest country in the world and the

second largest country in Southeast Asia. Burma is also the 24th most populous country in the

8

world with over 58.8 million people. It is a resource rich country. However, since the reformations

of 1962, the Burmese economy has become one of the least developed in the world.

7. Ireland

Ireland is an island to the northwest of continental Europe. It is the third-largest island in

Europe and the twentieth-largest island on Earth. To its east is the larger island of Great Britain,

from which it is separated by the Irish Sea. Politically, the island is divided between the Republic

of Ireland, which covers just under five-sixths of the island, and Northern Ireland, a part of the

United Kingdom, which covers the remainder and is located in the northeast of the island. The

population of Ireland is approximately 6.4 million. Just under 4.6 million live in the Republic of

Ireland and just under 1.8 million live in Northern Ireland.

8. Bulgaria

Bulgaria, officially the Republic of Bulgaria, is a parliamentary republic in Southeast Europe.

It borders Romania to the north, Serbia and Macedonia to the west, Greece and Turkey to the

south, as well as the Black Sea to the east. Bulgaria is a very mountainous country due to its

location in the Balkan Peninsula. With a territory of 110,994 square kilometres (42,855 sq mi),

Bulgaria ranks as the 14th-largest country in Europe.

9. Estonia

Estonia, officially the Republic of Estonia, is a state in the Baltic region of Northern Europe.

With a population of 1.34 million, it is one of the least-populous members of the European Union,

Eurozone and NATO. Estonia has the highest GDP per person among former Soviet republics.

Estonia is listed as a "High-Income Economy" by the World Bank, as an "advanced economy" by

the International Monetary Fund and the country is an OECD member. The United Nations lists

Estonia as a developed country with a Human Development Index of "Very High". The country is

also ranked highly for press freedom, economic freedom, democracy and political freedom and

education.

10. Soviet bloc

The communist nations closely allied with the Soviet Union, including Bulgaria, Cuba,

Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland, and Romania, whose foreign policies depended

on those of the former Soviet Union. It did not include communist nations with independent

foreign policies, such as China, Yugoslavia, and Albania. The Soviet Union used its military force

9

several times in the Soviet Bloc to ensure that the countries' governments followed Soviet

preferences: in East Germany in 1953, in Hungary and Poland in 1956, and in Czechoslovakia in

1968, for example.

11 Oman

Oman, officially called the Sultanate of Oman, is an Arab state in southwest Asia on the

southeast coast of the Arabian Peninsula. It is an absolute monarchy in which the Sultan of Oman

exercises ultimate authority but its parliament has some legislative and oversight powers. In

November 2010, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) listed Oman, from among

135 countries worldwide, as the nation most-improved during the preceding 40 years. According

to international indices, Oman is one of the most developed and stable countries in the Arab

World.

12. Yemen

The Republic of Yemen, commonly known as Yemen, is a country located in the Middle East,

occupying the southwestern to southern end of the Arabian Peninsula. Yemen has a land area of

555,000 square kilometers and a population of approximately 24 million (2010). Its capital and

largest city is Sana'a. Yemen's territory includes over 200 islands, the largest of which is Socotra,

about 415 km to the south of mainland Yemen, off the coast of Somalia. It is the only state in the

Arabian Peninsula to have a purely republican form of government.

Part III Pre-class Work1. Reading Comprehension

1) According to the author, the fact that the number of people around the world arrived 7 billion

this past week brings forward another round of debates about the following issues except

_____.

A. whether more people means more poverty

B. whether policies should be carried out to limit the growing number of people

C. whether the world is overpopulated

D. environment

2) Why most serious demographers, economists and population specialists rarely use the term

“overpopulation”?

10

A. because they don’t think 7 billion is a big number

B. because there is no clear demographic definition

C. because there were too many uncertainties

D. because there were too many value judgments

3) From the author’s point of view, which one is not the contributing subject when some scholars

gave up estimating the “optimum population” for particular countries?

A. the amount of food produced with future technologies

B. the ideal parkland area

C. resource scarcity

D. per capita energy consumption

4) The author claims fragile states could enjoy sustained improvements in income with the

followings except_____. 

A. greater investments in health and education

B. better policies

C. more population

D. physical security

5) China’s one-child policy_____

A. directly contributed to China’s economic boom in the late 1970s.

B. has a favorable demographic impact.

C. indeed helps lower China’s total fertility rate.

D. has nothing to do with much of the surplus of baby boys in China in the past generation.

6) The author uses Ireland, Bulgaria and Estonia as examples to argue that_____.

A. the contraction of population will lead to economic downturns.

B. the contraction of population may not lead to economic downturns.

C. the contraction of population will lead to economic surges.

D. a nation’s income depends on its population size or its rate of population growth.

7) The following statements are related to the 5th misconception. Which one is true?

A. Demographers have developed effective techniques for accurately projecting the world

population in 2100.

B. There will be 10.1 billion people alive in 2100.

C. The population of some low-income countries is experiencing dramatic declines.

D. The Bible will help prevent global population growth over the next several decades.

11

8) What is the author’s attitude towards the misconceptions about world population?

A. Postive

B. Negative

C. Reserved

D. Not evident

2. Word-building

1) Give the corresponding nouns of the following.

estimate dispense surge average preclude

coincide sustain soar predict collapse

2) Give the corresponding verbs of the following.

contraction fertility surplus restriction investment

reckoning reasoning spike explosion promulgation

3. Observe how these words are formed and make your own discoveries of rules of word-

building.

enact enslave enable enrich enlarge

enforce entitle encage enclose entrust

stability feasibility visibility reliability inability

sustainability variability dependability flexibility permeability

4. Translate the following terms in the fields of materials science and engineering into

Chinese.

1. island structure

2. ground state

3. ionic bond

4. valence electron

5. symmetry elements

6. coordination number

7. atomic planar density

8. dislocation line

9. grain boundaries

10. dislocation slip

12

11. dislocation density

12. immiscible solid solution

13. point defect

14. neutral atom

15. supersaturated solid solution

16. homophase boundary 

17. habit plane

18. surface adsorption

19. structure of melt

20. surface tension

Part IV Oral Work1. Questions to help comprehension and appreciation

1) What is exactly the “demographic milestone” according to the author? About what it launches

a round of debates? What are the five common misconceptions discussed by the author?

2) Is the world overpopulated? Why the term “overpopulation” is rarely used? What examples

the author put forward to argue against this misconception? Why some scholars gave up

trying to estimate the “optimum population” for particular countries? What happened during

the 20th century’s population explosion?

3) What are the examples the author put forward to argue against the second misconception?

According to the author, what fragile states could do to enjoy sustained improvements in

income?

4) What happened in China since the one-child policy and its tilt toward pro-market reforms in

the late 1970s? Does this mean the two are linked? Why?

5) What are the examples the author put forward to argue against the fourth misconception?

What else a nation’s income depends on besides its population size or its rate of population

growth?

6) Can demographers predict the accurate population of the world in 2100? Why? What are

“medium variant” projection, “high variant” projection and “low variant” projection?

2. Discussions

Do you agree with the author’s arguments against the five misconceptions of the world

population? Why or why not? Can you think of any other misconceptions related to the world

population?

3. Please retell the content of Paragraph 6-8.

PartV Exercise1. Translate the following phrases

1) into English

13

年人口增长率 人口密度急剧下降 经济繁荣计划生育政策 人口过剩人口激增 社会安定人均收入 人身安全2）into Chinese

low variant high variant

medium variant sharp population contractions

fertility rate resource scarcity

optimum population the global downturn

sustained surges value judgments

2. Use the proper form of the given words to complete the sentence.

coincide notwithstanding preordained auspicious scarcity

unprecedented reckoning tilt spiral radically

1. It was almost without _________ in local history.

2. The pilot can _________ the helicopter forward, backward, or to either side.

3. Provided there is no downward _________ in prices, it believes the economy will eventually

heal itself.

4. As workers compete for _________ jobs and firms underbid each other for sales, wages and

prices will come under pressure.

5. _________ a brilliant defense, he was found guilty.

6. There is no _________ cure for cancer.

7. However, some analysts _________ the company will be broken up and sold piecemeal to its

rivals.

8. The similarity between these two essays is too great to be _________.

9. Some people believe that fate has _________ whether they will is happy or unhappy.

10. Firework was first played to dispel ghosts and evil spirits and hanker for _________ and

happiness.

3. For each of the following blanks, choose the one that best fits into the passage.

14

A great deal of attention is being paid today to the so-called digital divide--the division of the

world into the info (information) rich and the info poor. And that 1 does exist today. My wife and

I lectured about this looming danger twenty years ago. What was less 2 then, however, were the

new, positive 3 that work against the digital divide. 4 , there are reasons to be 5 .

There are technological reasons to hope the digital divide will narrow. As the Internet

becomes more and more 6 , it is in the interest of business to universalize access-after all, the

more people online, the more potential 7 there are. More and more 8 , afraid their countries will

be left 9 , want to spread Internet access. Within the next decade or two, one to two billion people

on the planet will be 10 together. As a result, I now believe the digital divide will 11 rather than

widen in the years ahead. And that is very good news because the Internet may well be the most

powerful tool for 12 world poverty that we've ever had.

Of course, the use of the Internet isn't the only way to 13 poverty. And the Internet is not the

only tool we have. But it has 14 potential.

To 15 advantage of this tool, some poor countries will have to get over their outdated anti-

colonial prejudices 16 respect to foreign investment. Countries that still think foreign investment

is a/an 17 of their sovereignty might well study the history of 18 (the basic structural foundations

of a society) in the United States. When the United States built its industrial infrastructure, it didn't

have the capital to do so. And that is 19 America's Second Wave infrastructure-20 roads, harbors,

highways, ports and so on-were built with foreign investment.

1.A. divide B. information C. world D. lecture

2.A.obscure          B.visible           C.invisible         D.indistinct

3. A. forces  B.obstacles        C.events             D. surprises

4.A.Seriously         B.Entirely          C.Actually        D.Continuously

5.A.negative  B.optimistic       C.pleasant          D. disappointed

6.A.developed  B.centralized      C.realized          D.commercialized

7.A.users           B.producers       C.customers       D. citizens

8.A.enterprises B.governments   C.officials          D. customers

9.A.away       B. for              C. aside              D. behind

10.A.netted       B. worked          C. put               D. organized

11.A.decrease   B. narrow          C.neglect            D. low

15

12.A.containing   B.preventing      C.keeping           D. combating

13. A. win            B. detail            C. defeat            D. fear

14.A.enormous    B.countless        C.numerical       D. big

15.A.bring           B. keep            C. hold              D. take

16. A. at              B. with            C. of                D. for

17.A.offence        B.investment      C.invasion          D. insult

18.A.construction   B. facility          C.infrastructure  D. institution

19. A. why           B. where           C. when              D. how

20.A.concerning     B.concluding     C.according       D. including

4. Translate the following sentences into English.

1) 这位久经沙场的老将能把最强壮的运动员拖得筋疲力尽。（robust）2) 这些使他转向了全新的方向，写出他最发人深省的著作。（veer）3) 我估计我们离开工厂有数英里。（reckoning）4) 政府正在实行某些彻底的社会改革。（radical）5) 我们既然没有时间，今天就免去泛读课。（dispense）6) 追溯一切成功的政策，看来都有其预兆。（preordained）7) 科学技术专家这样广泛地参加经济、社会决策活动，是我国几千年历史上从来没有过的。（unprecedented）

8) 她的身体或许柔弱，但她柔和的面孔后面，有一种她独有的坚强意志。（fragile）5. Translate the following paragraph into Chinese.

When the droplets hit the surface, they spread out as a thin film and cooled rapidly. This

cooling process was termed “splat” cooling. More recently, continuous thin ribbons of metal

glasses, about 0.0015 in, in thickness, have been produced. Metal glasses include complex iron-

nickel-boron-phosphorus alloys. The metal glasses combine high strength and good ductility with

some excellent physical property, including ferromagnetic behavior, that warrant their continued

development.

VII. Writing SkillsBegin with a point, or thesis---the First step in writing

16

The first step in writing is to discover what point will be made in the essay and to write the

point out as a single sentence. This point will be the central idea of the essay. This central idea is

usually presented as a thesis statement in an essay’s introductory paragraph.

A good thesis statement does two things. First, it tells readers an essay’s topic. Second, it

presents the writer’s attitude, opinion, idea, or point about that topic. For example, look at the

following thesis statement:

Owning a pet has several important benefits.

In this thesis statement, the topic is owning a pet; the writer’s main point is that owning a

pet has several important benefits.

Try to analyze the thesis statements below.

1. Our company president should be fired for three main reasons.

2. Celebrities are often poor role models because of the way they dress, talk and behave.

3. The twentieth century produced three inventions that dramatically changed the lives of all

Americans.

4. Living in the city has certain advantages over living in the suburbs.

VIII. Autonomous Learning Scheme

IX. Supplementary Reading

A. Sustainable population, minus the control

Empowering women will naturally restore balance.

17

By Robert Engelman / July 10, 2009

In an era of warming climates and cooling economies, Malthusian limits to growth look to be

not just real but hard upon us. More people once meant more innovation. Now it just seems to

mean less for each: Less water for cattle herders in the Horn of Africa. Less land for farmers from

the Philippines to Guatemala. Less atmosphere to absorb the heat-trapping gases the global

economy exhales. Less energy and food. And if the world's economy doesn't bounce back, fewer

jobs.

This predicament brings back an old sore topic: human population and what, if anything, to

do about it. Not that any immediate respite is possible. There are nearly 6.8 billion of us today and

more on the way. To make a dent in these problems in the short term without throwing anyone

overboard, we'll need to radically reduce individuals' footprint on the environment through

improved technologies and, for the well-off, a downshift in lifestyle.

Raw population growth is worrisome enough. Rising consumption rates make it more so. As

nations develop, their consumption – and its environmental harm – rises. The average American

consumes many times the resources the average African does. Americans are just 4.5 percent of

world population, but there are 1.2 billion people in industrialized countries. And another 2.4

billion people in China and India are clambering up the consumption ladder. Today's rapid growth

in consumption on top of rapid population growth is a one-two punch that has the environment

reeling.

One obvious need is to cut individual consumption rates – somehow. But until the world's

population stops growing, there will be no end to the consumption squeeze. With the 9 billion

people demographers project by 2050, even a global average lifestyle such as South Africa's could

be unsustainable. Acting on both population and individual consumption consistently and

simultaneously is the key to long-term environmental sustainability. For the sake of the poor, let

alone the rest of the world, we'd be better off if population ended its growth soon and moved

gradually to a level lower than today's.

For most of the public, slowing population means "population control," as in China. But the

concept of "control" is, for good reason, anathema to most people. As it happens, it's actually more

effective to address population based on our right to decide for ourselves if and when to have

children. The basis for action is something that also makes sense for other reasons: Make

18

unintended childbirth as rare as possible. The benefits ripple out from women's lives in particular

to all of humanity and to nature.

The idea is hardly new. At a United Nations Conference in Cairo in 1994, almost all the

world's nations agreed to reject population control and instead help every woman bear a child in

good health when she wants one.

That approach, which powerfully supports reproductive liberty, might sound counterintuitive

for shrinking population growth, like handing a teenager the keys to the family car without so

much as a lecture. But the evidence suggests that what women want is not more children but more

for the fewer children they can reliably raise to healthy adulthood. Left to their own devices,

women collectively "control" population while acting on their own intentions. Governments can,

and should, get out of the way, merely helping assure that family-planning services are safe,

inexpensive, and available to those who seek them.

More than 200 million women in developing countries are sexually active without using

effective contraception even though they do not want to be pregnant anytime soon, according to

the Guttmacher Institute, a reproductive-health research group. The result: Some 80 million

pregnancies around the world are unintended, a number similar (though not strictly comparable) to

the one by which world population grows every year.

In the US, which spends about 17 cents per dollar of economic activity on healthcare, nearly

half of all pregnancies is unintended. Yet in all nations in which a choice of contraceptives is

available, backed up by safe abortion services, women have one or two children. Combine such

services with education for girls and decent opportunities for women, and average global fertility

would fall below two.

True, old-style population control seems at first glance to have helped slow population

growth in China. But most of the drop in Chinese fertility occurred before the one-child policy

went into effect in 1979, and given fertility trends elsewhere in Asia, it's likely the drop would

have continued without coercion. Many developing countries – from Thailand to Colombia to Iran

– have experienced comparable declines in family size by focusing on making schooling and

family-planning services as accessible as possible.

With President Obama in the White House and Democrats dominant in Congress, the US

government is at last supporting the kind of development abroad and reproductive health at home

19

most likely to encourage slower population growth. Like nearly all other politicians, however, Mr.

Obama doesn't talk about population or its connection to problems from health and education all

the way to food, energy security, and climate change. The topic is still too sensitive, despite the

recent upsurge in attention.

Bringing population back into the public conversation is risky, but people increasingly

understand that the subject is only one part of most of today's problems and that "population

control" can't really control population. Handing control of their lives and their bodies to women –

the right thing to do for countless other reasons – can. There is no reason to fear the discussion.

Robert Engelman is vice president for programs at the Worldwatch Institute and is author of

"More: Population, Nature, and What Women Want." A Error! Hyperlink reference not valid. of

this essay first appeared in the magazine Scientific American.

http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2009/0710/p09s01-coop.html/%28page

%29/2

B. Human side of population control

KOCHI: When the reverend Thomas Robert Malthus observed a couple of centuries ago that

population finds its level based on fertility rates, famine and diseases, he could not have imagined

that the last two factors, namely famine and diseases, could be eradicated in such a spectacular

manner as has been realized in recent times. In such a changed context, the fertility factor if

unchecked could trigger a population explosion far surpassing possible growth in livelihood, thus

making life difficult and progress impossible. Hence the need to control population by downsizing

the family.

Such need was most keenly felt in independent India which had a fast-growing population

living at subsistence level. Hence the justification for state intervention in controlling fertility to

adjust to the new realities. And it was India that took initiative first among the countries in 1952

under the visionary leadership of Jawaharlal Nehru, towards adopting population control as a state

objective.

At the same time, social norms were changing. Joint family system gave way to nuclear

20

families, and women began to work for money. It became difficult for working couples to look

after more children. And all of a sudden a competitive culture burst upon society. Children�

demanded attention, not only in material terms but equally so in emotional terms. Their

educational and healthcare demands have made each child a precious project to be taken up with

delicate care.

If children are God’s gift to parents, what they make out of the children has to be their return

gift to God. And it becomes difficult for parents to give themselves to their children if their

number exceeds a critical level; and two is considered by most parents as the optimum.

Therefore, if population control is a state objective, then family downsizing is a keenly felt

need of the people.

That means there is no quarrel between the state and the citizen. What the state thinks at the

macro level, the people want at their personal level. To go by a saying in Malayalam, what the

doctor has prescribed and what the patient had eagerly desired happen to be the same. So, what the

state is required to do is to create the needed ambience to help people achieve their goal of two-

child family.

That being so, why the state and its spokespersons often take self-righteous stands and

become indignant and intolerant whenever they fancy that people might transgress their own self-

accepted ‘norm’ unless under constant threat of penalties? And why is the strident tone often

adopted by state agencies and even well-meaning lawyers to express their disapprovals in the

matter?

This habitual intolerance is exemplified in the recommendations of the Kerala Law Reforms

Commission headed by V R Krishna Iyer for the purpose of protecting the interests of women in

the state. It had recommended that any movement, campaign or project which would stand�

against the said norm would attract penalty. And there are lawyers who would uphold this kind of

recommendations, unmindful of the fact that they have become anachronistic and redundant in the

context of states like Kerala. (See the article on the subject that appeared in TNIE on 7/11/11.)

Kerala is the one state in India which has recorded decadal growth in population below 10

percent. Its growth rate was 9.43 percent during 1991-2001 and still lower at 4.86 percent in 2001-

11, matching with developed countries in the world (e.g. USA: 7.26 percent and China: 5.43

percent). The growth percentages at pan-India level were 21.54 in 1991-2001 and 17.64 in 2001-

21

11. Then why this legal activism in Kerala?

In the article cited above, there are justifying references to judgments upholding state

cruelties to employees who had ‘violated’ the two-child norm. There is mention of a Supreme

Court order upholding the termination of services of an air- hostess because she became pregnant

for the third time in violation of her service rules. Instead of declaring the rule draconian and

unconstitutional, the court upheld her termination of service on the grounds that, paraphrased, she

was unfair to the country by adding to its burgeoning population!

It may be observed that India’s decadal population growth has come down from 24.8 percent

(in 1961-71) to 17.64 percent now. (The improvement was better in the case of southern India and

the adjacent states of Maharashtra and Orissa). This reflects people’s realization of the benefits

from smaller families and not from any imposed norm. Compulsory sterilization attempted by the

Government during the Emergency misfired because it went against the grains of the people; in

fact it only caused to harden their attitudes although for a short while. (If China lifts its dictatorial

grip on its population, that moment there could be a backlash and the population may grow

berserk for a while.)

Therefore, it is time the state plainly recognized the premises that family size is the

prerogative of the parents, that people are increasingly realizing the benefits of the small-sized

family, that they would self-adjust accordingly and that the government’s role be limited to

educating/sensitizing the people about its macro implications and providing conducive ambience.

Of course, there are rural pockets in India especially in the North where this realization is yet to

strike roots - areas marked by higher fertility and mortality indicators.

According to a recent report of the National Health Survey covering 284 districts in the

country, there are severely handicapped districts in places like UP where the crude birth rates and

death rates are several times higher than in neighbouring districts. For instance, while the birth rate

in Bageshwar district in Uttarakhand is 14.7 children per population of 1000, it is 40.9 in

Shrawasti in the neighbouring UP. If the death rate in Dhemaji district in Assam is 4.5 per

population of 1000, it is 12.6 in Shrawasti. Rudraprayag in Uttarkhand reported infant mortality

rate of 19 per 1000 live births; it is 103 in Shrawasti.

Obviously places like Shrawasti need government’s special attention in the form of education

and healthcare. Once this is ensured and development takes place, people could be expected to be

22

sensitized about their family’s welfare in the modern sense; and family downsizing will naturally

follow. Surely, crude pressure from the state will not yield the desired results from under-

developed areas such as Shrawasti.

To summarise, family sizing is primarily the family’s concern.

In the modern context, people increasingly realize the benefit of small families, and they will

adjust themselves accordingly, thereby ensuring national interests too in the process. No

developed country in Europe or America had to apply state pressure to bring about the desired

result.

(The writer is former Executive Director, IDBI. The views in the article are the author’s

own).

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/human-side-of-population-control/221229-60-122.html

X. Appreciation1. Every man is the master of his own fortune.----Richard Steele

2. The proper function of man is to live, not to exist.----Jake London

3. Few things are impossible in themselves; and it is often for want of will, rather

than of means, that man fails to succeed.——La Rocheforcauld, French writer

4. All happy families are like one another; each unhappy family is unhappy in its

own way.

5. The future is simply infinite possibility waiting to happen. What it waits on is

human imagination to crystallize its possibilities.          

6. Some of the world’s greatest feats were accomplished by people not smart enough

to know they were impossible.　7. Every new day begins with possibilities. It’s up to us to fill it with the things that

move us toward progress and peace.            

8. Limitations live only in our minds. But if we use our imaginations, our

possibilities become limitless.   

23

24