UNFCCC GUIDELINES IN REPORTING VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION BYNON-ANNEX I PARTIES TO IMPLEMENT

THE CONVENTION

CGE Hands-on Training Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for the Latin America and the

Caribbean Region

14-18 August 2006Asuncion, Paraguay

Arthur W. RolleMember of the CGE

rollearthur@gmail.com

Outline

• General Information• Definitions under Convention and IPCC• Reporting Obligations• Methodological Approaches• V & A reporting, tools• Examples from Bangladesh study• Cooperation• Tasks of V & A Group

A. General

Each non-Annex I Party shall, in accordance with Article 12, paragraph 1 (b), communicate to the COP a general description of steps taken or envisaged by the Party to implement the Convention, taking into account its common but differentiated responsibilities and its specific national and regional development priorities, objectives and circumstances.

Non-Annex I Parties may provide information on programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change by addressing anthropogenic emission by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, and measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change, following the provisions in these guidelines.

Taking into account Article 4, paragraph 7, and, as appropriate, Article 4, paragraphs 3 and 5, of the Convention, the extent to which developing country Parties will effectively implement their commitment to communicate this information will depend on the effective implementation by the developed country Parties of their commitments under the Convention relating to financial resources and transfer of technology.

Principles (Article 3, paragraph 2) of the ConventionThe specific needs and special circumstances of developing country Parties, especially those that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change , and of those Parties, especially developing country Parties, that would have to bear a disproportionate or abnormal burden under the Convention, should be given full consideration.

 Commitments (Article 4, paragraph 1(f)) under the ConventionTake climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in their relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions, and employ appropriate methods, for

example impact assessments, formulated and determined nationally, with a view to minimizing adverse effects on the economy, on public health and on the quality of the environment, of projects and measures undertaken by them to mitigate or adapt to climate change;

B. Programmes containing measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate

change

Definitions under the Convention

Climate change – change change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods

Adverse effects – changes in the physical environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition, resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on human health and welfare

Definitions under the IPCC

Vulnerability - degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climatic variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity

Adaptation - adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities

Sensitivity - degree to which a system is affected (adversely or beneficially) by climate-related stimuli, e.g. rainfall and temperature.

Adaptive capacity - ability of a system to adjust to climate change including climate variability and extremes to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences

Reporting obligations under the Convention

Non-Annex I Parties shall, in accordance with Article 12, paragraph 1(b) and (c), of the Convention, provide to the COP information on the general steps taken or envisaged towards formulating, implementing, publishing and regularly updating national and, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change, and any other information they consider relevant to the achievement of the objective of the Convention and suitable for inclusion in their communications.

•Such programs would, inter alia, concern the energy, transport and industry sectors as well as agriculture, forestry and waste management. Furthermore, adaptation technologies and methods for improving spatial planning would improve adaptation to climate change

Reporting obligations under the Convention

Non-Annex I Parties should provide information on their vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change, and on adaptation measures being undertaken to meet their specific needs and concerns arising from these adverse effects.

• Adverse effects of climate change will be felt on coastal systems; agriculture and food security; water resources; human health; ecosystems; biodiversity; tourism; human settlement, industry and transportation, etc

Reporting obligations under theMarrakech Accords

1. Decision 2/CP.7: Capacity building in developing countries (non-Annex I Parties)

  The COP invites Parties to provide information through

national communications and other reports to enable the SBI to monitor progress in the implementation of the framework for capacity building in developing countries.

The initial scope of needs and areas for capacity building includes information on vulnerability and adaptation assessments and capacity building for implementation of adaptation measures.

Reporting obligations under theMarrakesh Accords

2. Decision 4/CP.7: Development and transfer of technologies (decisions 4/CP.4 and 9/CP.5).

  Framework for meaningful and effective actions to enhance

the implementation of Article 4, paragraph 5, of the Convention : technology needs and needs assessments, technology information, enabling environments, capacity building and mechanisms for technology transfer.

Implementation of technology needs and needs assessments includes encouraging Parties to make available information on the results of their needs assessments in their national communications and other related reports and channels … identification of adaptation technology priorities.

Reporting obligations under theMarrakesh Accords

3. Decision 5/CP.7: Implementation of Article 4, paragraphs 8 and 9, of the Convention (decision 3/CP.3 and Article 2, paragraph 3, and Article 3, paragraph 14, of the KP).

  Part I: Adverse effects of climate change: Paragraph 1: The COP

insists that action related to adaptation follow an assessment and evaluation process, based on national communications and/or other relevant information, so as to prevent maladaptation and to ensure that adaptation actions are environmentally sound and will produce real benefits in support of sustainable development.

Paragraph 3: COP encourages non-Annex I Parties to provide information, including in their national communications, and/or any other relevant information sources, on their specific needs and concerns arising from the adverse effects of climate change.

Reporting

Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to:

provide information on the scope of their vulnerability and adaptation assessment, including identification of vulnerable areas that are most critical

include a description of approaches, methodologies and tools used, including scenarios for the assessment of impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation climate change, as well as any uncertainties inherent in these methodologies

provide information on their vulnerability to the impacts of, and their adaptation to, climate change in key vulnerable areas. Information should include key findings, and direct and indirect effects arising from climate change, allowing for an integrated analysis of the country’s vulnerability to climate change

provide information on and, to the extent possible, evaluation of, strategies and measures for adapting to climate change, in key areas including those which are of the highest priority

Reporting (2)

Where relevant, Parties may report on the use of policy frameworks, such as national adaptation programmes, plans and policies for developing and implementing adaptation strategies and measures.

National adaptation programmes of action (NAPA) could be used in this analysis for least developed countries and other frameworks, e.g. adaptation policy framework, mainstreaming adaptation into development planning, etc. 

Summary of GuidelinesOld guidelines (decision 10/CP.2) New guidelines (decision 17/CP.8)

• Objectives

• National circumstances • National circumstances

• Inventory of emissions/removals • National GHG inventory

• General description of steps • General description of steps– programmes containing measures to facilitate

adequate adaptation– programmes containing measures to mitigate climate

change

• Other information • Other information– transfer of technologies

4/CP.7)– research and systematic observation (5/CP.5)– education, training and public awareness (Article 6)– capacity-building (2/CP.7)– information and networking

• Financial and technological •Constraints and gaps needs and constraints

Methodological approaches

Non-annex I Parties may use appropriate methodologies and guidelines they consider better able to reflect their national situation for assessing their vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, provided that these methodologies and guidelines are consistent, transparent and well documented.

Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to use, for the evaluation of adaptation strategies and measures, appropriate methodologies they consider better able to reflect their national situation, provided that these methodologies are consistent, transparent and well documented.

IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations (1994), UNEP handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies (1998), and International Handbook on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments (1996).

Compendium of Decision Tools to Evaluate Strategies for Adaptation to Climate Change (1999)

An example of how to address methodological Issues

• Choosing climate change and sea level rise scenarios

• Modelling impacts of chosen climate change scenarios on droughts, floods, cyclones, etc

• Identifying possible adaptations

• Prioritising adaptation actions

Climate Scenarios

Year Sea Level Rise (cm)

Temperature Increase (ºC)

Precipitation Fluctuation Compared to 1990 (%)

2030 30

2050 50

V & A Reporting

• Includes three elements:• Assessments• Action• Cooperation

Factors that increase vulnerability to climate change

geography Where most elevation under 10 m

climate Subject to severe natural disasters

populationGrowth significant

economy GDP low

Literacy Low literacy rate

Human Health Life expectancy

Tools used for vulnerability assessment

• Historical records • Comprehensive state-of-the-

science climate simulation models• Sensitivity analyses designed to

explore our vulnerability to future climate change.

vulnerability indicators

Adaptive Capacity

Adaptive Capacity

Impacts Low High

high vulnerable communities

development opportunities

low residual sustainability

Tools for reducing vulnerability

• Mitigation (land use planning, retroffiting, building codes and public education);

• Preparedness (establishing early warning systems, developing hazard plans and storing emergency supplies);

• Response (rescue efforts, and provision of food, shelter and medical aid);

• Recovery (restoration and reconstruction of the community through community repairs, gradual restoration of structure and infrastructure, and replacement of capital stock

Example-Adaptation measures to increased freshwater flooding

Key Risks and Adaptation Measures

Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement

Physical adaptations

Elevated land as flood refuge or flood shelters

Practiced throughout the country

Flood refuge Needs evaluation

Institutional Adaptations

Improved flood warning and forecasting

Proved effective. Needs more cooperation and to be location specific

Evacuation of vulnerable people and valuables

Limited capacity exists. Costly, especially for the very poor

Example-Adaptation measures for disasters in coastal areas

Key Impacts and Measures Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement

Physical adaptations

Cyclone shelters Already proven. Highly socially acceptable

Mangrove greenbelts Started. Needs evaluation

Institutional Adaptations

Forecasting and dissemination Flood and cyclone forecasting should be location specific

Involvement of CBOs and volunteers

Should continue

Example-Adaptation measures in agriculture

Adaptation Measures Current State of Implementation & Requirements for Improvement

Improved irrigation efficiency Poor. Needs institutional support

Crop diversification Efforts have met with limited success

Institutional Adaptations

Training programmes and dissemination

Dissemination is poor. Activities need enhancing

Research and development of new (salinity and drought resistant) crops

Research needs enhancing

Cooperation

• Cooperate in scientific and technical research and promote the maintenance and the development of systematic observation systems;

• Promote capabilities to participate in international and intergovernmental efforts;

• Cooperate in and promote at the international level, and, where appropriate, using existing bodies, the development and implementation of education and training programs, including the strengthening of national capacity building, in particular human and institutional capacities and the exchange or secondment of personnel to train experts in this field, in particular for developing countries, and facilitate at the national level public awareness of, and public access to information on, climate change;

• Cooperate in the promotion of environmentally sound technologies, know-how, practices and processes pertinent to climate change.

Tasks of V & A GroupIn order to undertake the work programme of the

CGE in accordance with the Terms of reference annexed to decision 3/CP.8, the V&A Thematic Group has to:

• Identify and assess technical problems and constraints affecting the preparation of vulnerability and adaptation assessments.

• Identify and assess the difficulties encountered by NAI Parties in the use of the guidelines and methodologies for the preparation of vulnerability and adaptation assessments.

• Analyze and review national vulnerability and adaptation assessments in terms of methodological issues, technical problems and constraints in preparing and reporting.

Tasks of V & A Group (Cont..)

• Provide technical advice and support through hands-on training workshops on the preparation and reporting of national vulnerability and adaptation assessments.

• Review existing activities and programmes (multilateral and bilateral) which facilitate and support the preparation of vulnerability and adaptation assessments.

• Provide recommendations/advice on how to improve the preparation and reporting of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change.

• Obtain information, through questionnaires, from Parties on the progress of the preparation of vulnerability and adaptation assessments and how this process will assist the Parties in their sustainable development. The result of the analysis of the questionnaires would provide an indication of the future work.

I THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION