UNESCO Desire – Net project E-learning course Energy and sustainable development: The global...

UNESCO UNESCO Desire – Net projectDesire – Net project

E-learning courseE-learning course Energy and sustainable development:Energy and sustainable development:

The global energy framework 2The global energy framework 2

Giovanna AnselmiGiovanna AnselmiEnea – Ufficio di PresidenzaEnea – Ufficio di Presidenza

[email protected]@sede.enea.it

UNESCOUNESCORome, 2006 4Rome, 2006 4thth December December

GENERAL COURSE OUTLINEGENERAL COURSE OUTLINE

MODULE AENERGY

FRAMEWORK2

- GLOBAL ENERGY FW 2- IMPACT OF THE OIL SHOCK 2- RES ROLE & E. SCENARIOS -THE EXTERNALITY OF ENERGY PRODUCTION F.F.F.

- WITHE CERTIFICATES - G I S - L C A & APPLICATIONS- GLOBAL CHALLENGES 2- EU FUNDING FOR RES PROMOTION

MAINQUESTIONS

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GENERAL COURSEGENERAL COURSE OUTLINEOUTLINEMODULE BENERGY,

ENVIRONMENT &SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT2

- SUSTAINABLE DEVELOP. 2- ENERGY AND S. D. : ALTER- NATIVE TECHNOLOGIES- S.D. & THE KYOTO PROTOCOL

- TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLL. AND RELATED INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELLING- SUSTAINABLE DEVELOP. 2.1

MAINQUESTIONS

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TO DAY LECTURE OUTLINETO DAY LECTURE OUTLINE

Energy Trendsin Reference and

Alternative Scenarios

Investments in Energy Supply

Infrastracture

CO2 Emission &RES Role

Main Problems

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Global Primary Energy Demand is pejected toGlobal Primary Energy Demand is pejected to increase by 53%

between 2004 and 2030 (average annual rate of 1.6%).

Energy Trends in Reference Scenario

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Over 70% of this increase comes from developing countries.

The power generation sector contributes close to one-half of the global increase.

Demand grows by one-quarter in the period to 2015 alone.

The increase in demand amounts toalmost 6 billion toe, or 53% of current demand.

TAB: 1 WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND (Mtoe) - Source: WEO 2006TAB: 1 WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND (Mtoe) - Source: WEO 2006


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7GRAPH: 1 WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND GRAPH: 1 WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL - Source: WEO 2006- Source: WEO 2006


8GRAPH: 2GRAPH: 2 FUEL SHARES IN WORLDWORLD FINAL ENERGY DEMANDDEMAND - Source: WEO 2006- Source: WEO 2006

Energy Trends in Alternative Scenario

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World primary energy demand in 2030 is about 10%, or 1 690 Mtoe, lower in the Alternative Policy Scenario than in the R S

§ The impact of new policies is felt throughout the period

The policies analysed halt the rise in OECD oil imports by 2015

§

In 2015, the difference between the two scenarios is 4%, or 534 Mtoe

§

§


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OECD countries and developing Asia become more dependent on oilimports in 2030 compared to today, but markedly less so than in theR S

§

§

§ Global oil demand reaches 103 mb/d in 2030 in the Alternative Policy Scenario – an increase of 20 mb/d on 2005 levels but a fall of 13 mb/d in the period

Gas demand and reliance on gas imports are also reduced below the levels of the Reference Scenario


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TAB:2 WORLD ENERGY DEMAND IN THE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO 2005 - 2030 TAB:2 WORLD ENERGY DEMAND IN THE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO 2005 - 2030 Source WEO 2006Source WEO 2006

Energy-related CO2 emissions are cut by 6.3 Gt, or 16%, in 2030 relative to the Reference Scenario and already 1.7 Gt, or 5%, by 2015.

CO2 EMISSIONCO2 EMISSION


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§

OECD emissions peak by around 2015 and then decline.§

Emissions in Japan and the European Union in 2030 are lower than 2004 levels.

§

§

Global emissions nonetheless continue to rise, from 26 Gt in 2004 to 32 Gt in 2015 and 34 Gt in 2030.

GRAPH 3: CHANGE IN ENERGY RELATED COGRAPH 3: CHANGE IN ENERGY RELATED CO22 EMISSION BY REGION IN REFERENCE EMISSION BY REGION IN REFERENCE & ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO 2004 - 2030 – Source WEO 2006& ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO 2004 - 2030 – Source WEO 2006


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GRAPH 4: CUMULATIVE ENERGY RELATED COGRAPH 4: CUMULATIVE ENERGY RELATED CO22 EMISSION IN THE REFERENCE & EMISSION IN THE REFERENCE & ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO 2005 - 2030 – Source WEO 2006ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO 2005 - 2030 – Source WEO 2006


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- to improve efficiency in energy production and use- to increase reliance on non-fossil fuels - to sustain the domestic supply of oil and gas within net energy- importing countries


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Why an Alternative Policy Scenario?

The Alternative Policy Scenario analyses how the global energy market could evolve if countries were to adopt all of the policies related to energy security and energy-related CO2 emissions. The aim is to understand how far those policies could take us in dealing with these challenges and at what cost.

THE POLICIES INCLUDE EFFORTS:


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THE MAIN POLICY MEASURES came into operation in

- January 2005: the EU Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Scheme

- February 2005: the Kyoto Protocol

- January 2006: the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development

and Climate (AP6)- March 2006: the European Commission Green Paper addressing energy security (EC, 2006)

- May 2006/Japan: New National Energy Strategy on energy security

TAB: 2TAB: 211 SELECTED POLICIES INCLUDED IN A. S. - Source: WEO 2006 SELECTED POLICIES INCLUDED IN A. S. - Source: WEO 2006


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?

The

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POTENTIAL IMPACT OF BREAKTHROUGHSCarbon Capture and StorageSecond-generation biofuels Plug-in hybrids and other advanced technologies

Technological Developments

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

ONLY Technologies that have yet been demonstrated on a commercial basis are included in the Alternative Policy Scenario


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POTENTIAL IMPACT OF BREAKTHROUGHS

CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE

The introduction of CCS in the power sector would reduce emissions by 2Gt in 20303 100 TWh of electricity would then be generated from coal and natural gas plants equipped with CCSSome 70% of new coal-fired capacity and 35% of new gas-fired plants would be equipped with CCS over the projection periodCCS in coal plants would account for more than 80% of the

captured emissions.


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SECOND-GENERATION BIOFUELS

Enzymatic hydrolysis

Gasification of woody ligno-cellulosic feedstock

Integration of biomass gasification and combined-cycle technology

Biofuels use in road transport would double


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PLUG-IN HYBRIDS AND OTHER ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES

Sales of hybrid vehicles would make up 60% of new light-duty vehicles sales

Plug-in hybrids would enter the LDV market

in comparaison to the Alternative Policy Scenariothose measures combined would avoid the combustion of more than 7 mb/d of oil, saving 1 Gt of CO2 in 2030

Investments in Energy Supply Infrastracture/EuE

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ENHANCING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY

feed-in tariff mechanisms

portfolio quota, with or without accompanying tradable certificate

tax incentive

integration of intermittent renewables in the electricity grid

INCREASING PUBLIC FUNDING OF R&D and DEPLOYMENT


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The world’s remaining economically exploitable energy resources are adequate to meet the projected increases in demand through to 2030 Energy exports from non-OECD to OECD regions rise by 47% Cumulative investment in energy-supply infrastructure amounts to just over $20 trillion (in year-2005 dollars) over 2005-2030 The power sector requires more than $11 trillion, equal to 56% of total energy investment needs Capital expenditure amounts to $4.3 trillion in the oil sector and $3.9 trillion in the gas sector Half of all the energy investment needed worldwide is in developing countries

In Reference Scenario -1


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TAB: 3 CUMULATIVE INVESTMENT IN ENERGY SUPPLY INFRASTRUCT /R.S. TAB: 3 CUMULATIVE INVESTMENT IN ENERGY SUPPLY INFRASTRUCT /R.S. 2005-2030 2005-2030 bilion $/year 2005. Source: WEO 2006. Source: WEO 2006


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GRAPH: 5 CUMULATIVE INVESTMENT IN ENERGY SUPPLY INFRASTRUCT/ GRAPH: 5 CUMULATIVE INVESTMENT IN ENERGY SUPPLY INFRASTRUCT/ R.S. BY FUEL & ACTIVITY 2005- 2030 - Source: WEO 2006R.S. BY FUEL & ACTIVITY 2005- 2030 - Source: WEO 2006


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The stated prices must be high enough to stimulate sufficient investment in new supply infrastructure

Many factors may impede required investments:a worsening of the investment climate changes in government attitudes to foreign investment changes in capacity expansionsthe adoption of more stringent environmental regulations less favourable licensing and fiscal conditions



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The reductions in energy demand, energy imports and energy- related CO2 emissions induce different investment pattern:

Consumers invest more to purchase energy/efficient equipments Energy suppliers/producers invest less in new energy- production and transport infrastructure

Over 2005-2030, the investment required by the energy sector – ranging from end-use appliances to production and distribution is $560 billion less (in year-2005 dollars) than in Reference Scenario

In Alternative Scenario -1


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GRAPH: 6 CHANGE IN CUMULATIVE DEMAND & SUPPLY-SIDE INVESTMENT - AS GRAPH: 6 CHANGE IN CUMULATIVE DEMAND & SUPPLY-SIDE INVESTMENT - AS 2005- 2030 - Source: WEO 20062005- 2030 - Source: WEO 2006


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INVESTMENT IN ELECTRICITY CHAIN-1INVESTMENT IN ELECTRICITY CHAIN-1


The avoided investment throughout the electricity chain – from the producer to the consumer – is $1.1 trillion Savings on the supply side total is $2.1 trillion An additional $1 invested on demand-side electricity avoids more than $2 in investment on the supply side In OECD countries, the ratio is $1 invested to $1.6 avoided In developing countries, at $1 in investment to more than $3 in supply costs avoided


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INVESTMENT IN ELECTRICITY CHAIN-2INVESTMENT IN ELECTRICITY CHAIN-2


Demand-side investment in APS across all regions amounts to about $950 billion more in 2005-2030, as consumers purchase more efficient equipment for the related economic sectors:

Industry and agriculture: motors, pumps, compressor systems, irrigation, pumping

systems Residential & Services Sectors: heating, ventilation, air- conditioning, lighting home & office appliances (refrigerators, washing machines, televisions) , hot water systemsCumulative network investment is $1 630 billion lower than in

R. S


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POLICIES TO PROMOTE RENEWABLE ENERGY AND NUCLEAR POWER


- Additional total investment for generating plants of $600 bilion

is foreseen

-Total new fossil-power plant investment is $1 030 billion lower

- In developing countries stay most of the avoided net investment

- Their savings amount to some $680 billion


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TAB 4: CHANGE IN CUMULATIVE ELECTRICITY INVESTMENT 2005-2030 bilion $/year 2005 – Source: WEO 2006



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DEMAND-SIDE INVESTMENT INVESTMENT


Additional demand-side investment amounts to $2.4 trillion Industry invests an extra $360 billion Investmeent in Transport increases by $1.1 trillion Investment in the residential and services sectors (including agriculture) is more than $920 billion higher than in RS In OECD consumers need to invest $1.5 trillion, 2/3 of the additional global investment in end-use equipment In non-OECD:

33% of 926 bilion for Residencial & Services Sectors 42% of 362 bilion for Industrial Sector


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TAB: 5 ADDITIONAL DEMAND-SIDE INVESTMENT 2005-2030 bilion $/year 2005 – Source: WEO 2006



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GRAPH: 6 DEMAND-SIDE INVESTMENT & FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY REGION 2005-2030 – Source: WEO 2006


Investments in Energy Supply Infrastracture

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SUPPLY-SIDE INVESTMENT -1 -1


-The worldwide investment requirement is $17.3 trillion- In developing countries and transition economies amounts to $1.8 trillion - The reduced investment in OECD countries is $1.1 trillion- Reduced electricity-supply investment accounts for more than two-thirds of the overall fall-The capital for transmission and distribution networks is $1.6 trillion lower thanks to lower demand and to the wider use of distributed generation


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o The capital intensity of renewables, nuclear power and some

forms of distributed generation remain higher than that of fossil

fuels

o Total fossil-fuel investment continues to rise o Total investment worldwide in oil and gas is $800 billion, or

10%, lower than in the R. S. because there is less demand & less

need to expand production


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GRAPH:7 CUMULATIVE GLOBAL INV. IN ELECTRICITY SUPPLY INFRASTR. 2005-2030 – Source WEO 2006



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The greatest impact of investment reductions will be in exporting countriesReduced investment in oil exploration and development in MENA makes up a significant part of the decrease in non-OECD oil investmentReduced investment for gas-transportation/infrastr. contributes the largest share of the $360 billion global reduction in gas investmentInvestment needs in the coal industry are reduced by 22%, from $560 billion in the R.S. to around $440 billion

MAIN PROBLEMSMAIN PROBLEMS

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Energy consumption trends going up

Energy technology enhancement

Oil price volatility

Energy supply security

Environment harm

Investment needs & Infrastructures

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTIONTHANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

PLEASE DO YOUR QUESTIONS NOWPLEASE DO YOUR QUESTIONS NOW

OROR

SEND THEM AFTERWORDS BY EMAIL TO:SEND THEM AFTERWORDS BY EMAIL TO:

[email protected]@sede.enea.it

UNESCO Desire – Net project E-learning course Energy and sustainable development: The global...

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