Income consumption curve,price consumption curve, engles law
Understanding the Price Curve
Transcript of Understanding the Price Curve
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Understanding the Price Curve
MFTransparency Webinar Series
Chuck Waterfield CEO
MicroFinance Transparency September 2012
Promoting Transparent Pricing in the Microfinance Industry
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Section 1: Quick overview of MFT’s Phase I / II
Section 2: What is a “transparent price”?
Section 3: Curves, not averages!
Section 4: The cost curve drives the price curve
Section 5: Where does the curve start?
Section 6: Profits come from being “off of the curve”
Section 7: Moving beyond Portfolio Yield to True Price
Section 8: Rating transparency
AGENDA
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This webinar is being recorded and will be available on our website.
The webpage will also include links to supplemental reading for each of the 8 topics we cover today and answers to questions you type that we don’t have
time to answer verbally.
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Overview of MicroFinance Transparency’s Progress Report: Phase I / II
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A Successful “Phase I”
• Results of Phase I • More than 500 MFIs participating
• Pricing data on over 2,000 products
• True prices on loans going to over 50 million clients
• True prices on over US$12 billion in outstanding portfolio
• 17 countries published, 8 unpublished, 2 boycotted
• Pricing transparency has shifted from a “rare practice” to an “expectation for all”
• Microfinance is the first industry of any kind in the world to practice global, voluntary disclosure of true pricing.
A Successful “PHASE 1”
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• Data Collection, Standardization, Publication • Quarterly refreshing, new countries, partnership
approach
• New data platform, downloadable data
• Training & Capacity Building • More videos & webinars planned, additional software &
analysis tools in development
• Development of Educational Materials • 150 materials on the website, more planned
• Consultation to Regulators & Policymakers
Transition to “PHASE 2”
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Please visit and explore our new website
Let us know what additional
changes you would like to see.
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What is a “transparent price”?
What price DO we charge?
How should we DEFINE price?
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Do we really have non-transparent pricing?
Here’s an example of what a client
faces in shopping for a loan
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Which loan would you pick? Zero Interest
Loan Interest and
Fees And Savings Interest
Only
Loan amount: $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000
Loan term: 10 weeks 10 weeks 10 weeks 10 weeks
Interest Rate: 0% 15% “flat” 12% “flat” 40% decl
Upfront fee: 5% 2% 1% 0%
Security deposit: 0% 0% 20% 0%
APR 49% 47% 49% 40%
Transparency Index
0 32 25 100
TCC $50 $50 $33 $42
Nominal Annual Interest Rate ----------------------------------
Full APR
Full Transparency = 100
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(Total Cost of Credit)
• No!! TCC only works for exactly identical products • TCC is flawed even for products that seem very similar.
• TCC is deceptive for comparing dissimilar products
• Why? • A client doesn’t buy a loan.
• A client rents a variable amount of money for a variable amount of time.
• We shouldn’t use a “purchase price”, we need to use a “rental price”
“Should we use TCC with clients?”
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(Annual Percentage Rate) The APR indicates the cost for you to borrow $1.00
for one year. It is a unit rental cost.
An APR of 30% means it would cost you 30 cents to borrow $1.00 and keep the entire $1.00 for one full
year.
The APR is an essential figure for you to compare the true cost of different loans.
What is the APR?
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• Interest: Certainly!
• What else? Everything that is a compulsory requirement for receiving the loan.
• Fees: Any compulsory fees must be included • Training fees? Yes, if the training is a requirement for the
loan. The full-price is then for “credit-plus-training”
• Insurance fees? Yes, if insurance is a requirement. The client can then compare: “Loan-only for 34% APR, loan-and-insurance for 38% APR”
• Compulsory Deposits (“Savings”): Yes! We’ll see later.
“What costs should we include?”
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Cardinal Rule in analyzing micro-loans:
Never use averages
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Using the MIX Data
Can download stats for multiple institutions, countries, and years. Then just
filter the info and generate some graphs… and avoid averages!
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Average Price
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Responsible Pricing Range
Too Low!
Too High!
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Why is there a price curve for
micro-loans?
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In the Philippines, we find a curve not only for prices, but also for Operating Costs.
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Common industry benchmark of 15-20% OpCost Ratio is appropriate for larger loans
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But smaller loans generate an Op Cost Ratio well in excess of 20%
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Cost Components that Affect Pricing
Component
Financial Costs 10%
Loan Loss 2%
Operating Costs 20%
Profit 3%
Total Price 35%
Cost Components that Affect Pricing
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Realizing that there is a Cost Curve
Efficiency 1 2 3
Operating Cost per Loan
$50
Loan Size $500
Operating Cost Ratio 10%
Realizing that there is a cost curve
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Realizing that there is a Cost Curve
Efficiency 1 2 3
Operating Cost per Loan
$50 $50
Loan Size $500 $250
Operating Cost Ratio 10% 20%
Realizing that there is a cost curve
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Realizing that there is a Cost Curve
Efficiency 1 2 3
Operating Cost per Loan
$50 $50 $30
Loan Size $500 $250 $100
Operating Cost Ratio 10% 20% 30%
Realizing that there is a cost curve
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Efficiency - Cost per Borrower
These MFIs are actually VERY efficient “per borrower”, but this still is high
relative to the loan amount
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Is there a dramatic curve in every country like we see in the Philippines?
No. Not when we look at the MIX data.
Some countries are more like “sloped lines”.
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Where do the curves start?
Let’s study the operating cost curve relative to the economy
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It’s pretty “flat” out here, above 100%
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It gets more interesting over
here….
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Most of the Bolivian MFIs are way off to the right… > 100%
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Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia not
present at 100%
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Only Mexico, Brazil, Colombia and
Philippines at 5%
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Gradual slope until about 25% GNI
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Significantly steeper from 25% down to 10%...
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Nearly a vertical line below 10%...
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As loans approach 0% GNI, the cost ratio approaches infinity
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Conclusion: As microfinance loans get more and
more “micro” we approach the limits of what we can viably deliver.
If we expect clients to cover the costs, we charge a higher-and-higher price.
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Are there curves for the other cost components?
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Cost Components that Affect Pricing
Component
Financial Costs 10%
Loan Loss 2%
Operating Costs 20%
Profit 3%
Total Price 35%
Let’s look at Bolivia
Cost Components that Affect Pricing
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Financial Expenses range between 2% and 5%, with a flat-average of 3%, not
correlated to loan balance.
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Loan Provision is a consistent 1% to 2%, not correlated to loan balance.
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Operating Cost Ratio is by far the largest component, ranging from 10% to 30% and
is highly correlated to loan balance.
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Prices and Profits
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Peru has a PRICE curve, but doesn’t have a PROFIT curve. “High prices” do not
mean “high profits”.
In Most Countries, Profits not Correlated to Loan Size
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Mexico MFIs with > US$1M in profit in 2010
* From MIX data
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MFI’s Costs
Defining a Responsible Price
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+ MFI’s Choice of Profit
MFI’s Costs
Defining a Responsible Price
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= Price Set by the MFI
+ MFI’s Choice of Profit
MFI’s Costs
Defining a Responsible Price
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What Price Can the Poor Afford?
= Price Set by the MFI
+ MFI’s Choice of Profit
MFI’s Costs
Defining a Responsible Price
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The Profit/(Loss) Component is the Choice of Management
When prices are unknown, profit levels are an intentional choice of management.
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Comparing MFT prices and
portfolio yield
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What happens if an MFI has two
or more products?
Of different sizes?
Different purposes?
Do they charge the same price
on all products? Almost never.
Global Portfolio Yield Isn’t Enough
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With declining balance interest all clients have same
true price.
Flat interest can vary price paid by
each client
Fees can change price to each client
Security Deposits can affect different clients differently
So does product-specific portfolio
yield approximate the true price?
Almost never.
Product-Specific Portfolio Yield Generally Isn’t Enough
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Why Portfolio Yield Isn’t Enough
MFI
Average loan
balance per
borrower
Yield on
portfolio
(nominal)
Initial Loan
Size
BancoSol 2,713 19.82% 5,155
MIX (31-12-2009)
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Average Original Loan Amount (US$)
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Average Original Loan Amount (US$)
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Largest product has a
APR ranging from
18% to 25%
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This product has a
APR ranging from
12% to 19%
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This product has a
single APR of 25%
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This product with
just a few clients has
a APR ranging from
11% to 13%
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And what is always quoted for BancoSol
is “Their price is 20%.” That is their
weighted average price, but no clients
actually pay 20%.
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First, it depends on what level you are analyzing • Institution-Level: Global Portfolio Yield • Product-Level: Product Portfolio Yield for each product • Client-Level: The APR of that specific loan
Second, it depends on what you include in the price: • Portfolio Yield: Only interest and some fees • MFT’s “APR”:
• Includes all costs the client pays in the contract (interest fees, insurance, taxes)
• Also includes the hidden cost of a Compulsory Deposit
What price is a loan?
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“The full cost of a loan must include not only
interest and fees, but also Compulsory Deposits, that
we often call “savings”
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“I believe it should be what the client pays – interest and fees. The
Total Cost of Credit is the real cost. Savings is a benefit, not a cost.”
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“Savings does have some perceived benefit – the
client leaves with cash in their pocket. But when
borrowing and saving at the same time, that savings
affects the price of the loan”
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“Let’s look at a simple example, following a loan to a client, to understand
why.”
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“Here’s a loan…. AND we help you SAVE”
(savings is a requirement of this loan)
$1000
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$1000
$200
$800
Loan Term = 10 months Loan Amount = $1000
Compulsory deposit = 20% Interest Rate = 2.5% per month (flat) or $25 per
month
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After 1 month
% interest
% interest + principal
$100 $700
$200
Part of the loan interest paid is for the part of the loan that is
in “savings” $5
$20
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After 6 months – Amounts are equal
% interest
% interest + principal
$200
$200 $100
$5
$20
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After 8 months - none of original loan left
% interest
% interest + principal
Loan payments are now coming out of
her business assets, as all the loan that
went to the business is repaid
$200
$0 $100
$5
$20
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So client may be forced to liquidate
stock in order to repay the loan
$200
Negative $!!
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At end of loan – savings are repaid to client
$200
$0
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But what has client actually paid? Using TCC – Total Cost of Credit
Loan repayments = $1000
PRINCIPAL
Interest paid on loan = $200
Interest paid on savings = $50 Av. Loan Balance for business = $350
INTEREST
TCC = $250
With Savings
Interest paid on loan = $250
INTEREST
TCC = $250
Without Savings
Av. Loan Balance for business = $550
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But what has client actually paid? Using APR – Annual Percentage Rate
Loan repayments = $1000
PRINCIPAL
Interest paid on loan = $200
Interest paid on savings = $50 Av. Loan Balance for business = $350
INTEREST
Total APR = 75%
With Savings
Interest paid on loan = $250
INTEREST
Total APR = 51%
Without Savings
Av. Loan Balance for business = $550
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Summary
• The client did leave with cash after the loan was repaid.... but it DID increase the cost of the loan. The client paid interest on the “savings” as well as the “business” portion of the loan. And she did not have the benefit of ACCESS to that savings during the loan.
• Voluntary Savings is a valuable service, but:
• When clients are in a time when they need a LOAN, they need a LOAN...
• When clients are in a period where they want to SAVE, we should help them SAVE (voluntarily)...
• Blurring SAVING and LOAN at the same time, and charging
INTEREST on the SAVINGS, increases the true cost of the loan, and does so in a hidden way.
Summary
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Rating MFIs on their Pricing Transparency
SECTION 8:
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• Product Transparency Index • The relation of nominal interest rate to Full APR
• Institutional Transparency Index • Weighted average of all Product Transparency Indices
• Contract and Repayment Schedules • Do they communicate the price clearly to the client?
• Transparent communication to all stakeholders • What prices are communicated in other public materials? • What prices are communicated to the press?
Transparent Communication
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Summary of our main points
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Prices are far from transparent Zero Interest
Loan Interest and
Fees And Savings Interest
Only
Loan amount: $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000
Loan term: 10 weeks 10 weeks 10 weeks 10 weeks
Interest Rate: 0% 15% “flat” 12% “flat” 40% decl
Upfront fee: 5% 2% 1% 0%
Security deposit: 0% 0% 20% 0%
APR 49% 47% 49% 40%
Transparency Index
0 32 25 100
TCC $50 $50 $33 $42
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Savings DOES affect cost. And APR shows that cost, while TCC does not
Loan repayments = $1000
PRINCIPAL
Interest paid on loan = $200
Interest paid on savings = $50 Av. Loan Balance for business = $350
INTEREST
Total APR = 75%
With Savings
Interest paid on loan = $250
INTEREST
Total APR = 51%
Without Savings
Av. Loan Balance for business = $550
![Page 105: Understanding the Price Curve](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022012101/6169edd711a7b741a34cee4f/html5/thumbnails/105.jpg)
Most prices are correlated to costs
![Page 106: Understanding the Price Curve](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022012101/6169edd711a7b741a34cee4f/html5/thumbnails/106.jpg)
Countries with deeper penetration have steeper curves
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What Price Can the Poor Afford?
= Price Set by the MFI
+ MFI’s Choice of Profit
MFI’s Costs
Defining a Responsible Price
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We can move beyond portfolio yield and study pricing more accurately
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Questions and Answers
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Promoting Transparent Pricing in the Microfinance Industry
MicroFinance Transparency is an NGO registered in the USA