Understanding the Energy Crisis · PDF file“A typical large power plant” ABOUT:...
Transcript of Understanding the Energy Crisis · PDF file“A typical large power plant” ABOUT:...
Understanding Energy Crisis in The World
What is a Quadrillion?
Reality vs Promises
(Science vs. Political Science)
Understanding the Energy Crisis
How Much Energy Does The
World Use?
Where Does it Come From?
What are our options for the Future?
Can Renewable Energy save us?
Projected World Wide Energy
Needs
What is this?
How much is it?
“Let’s Define New Unit of Energy”Energy=Power x Time
“1 Unit” =1000 Megawatts of electric power for 1 yr
“A typical large power plant”
ABOUT: 0.1 Quadrillion BTU’s
2200 Megawatt thermal energy for one year
9 million Megawatt-hrs electricity
15 million barrels of oil or ~50 super tankers per yr
3 million tons of coal ~ 36500 car loads per yr (train/day)
90 billion cubic ft of Natural gas per yr (~1 cubic mile)
1 ton Uranium per yr (about a 15”x15”x15” cube)
Energy for about 300,000 People in US for a year
World Wide Energy Needs
All Energy-Not just Electrical
~7200
“Units”Today-
~5630
“Units”
Growth 2%
~100 units/yr
2 a week!
“Approx Units” 1900 1150 1300 300 300 50
World Energy Consumption by
Source
~5630
Total Units
Today
Renewables
Today! <1%
What about The Japan/United States
Consumption?
Sources?
Future Needs?
Use about 1000 Units!
Understanding the Energy Crisis
Total Energy domestic/Imported
230 units
120 units
30 units ea
~10 units (<1%)
Imported oil
30
300 units
~1000 “units” used today
Growth rate ~2%/year or
20 “units”
30
80 units
200 units
Canada 19%
Mexico & S.Ara. 10%/ea
Venezuela&Nig. 9%ea
Solar, Wind,
bio-mass
World Energy use by fuel type
Renewables 6% of
total (hydro, wood,
included.
Growing yes, but,
Percent shrinking?
Where is Crude Oil Consumed
(USA)
Personal Cars(About 10% of total energy) ~33%
Trucking ~20%
Planes and Ships ~10%
Chemical Products(over 4000) ~12%
Industrial Heat ~10%
Heat, Light, Electric Power ~8%
Miscellaneous ~7%
Nearly everything in our lives is made from oil, made by machinery and systems
dependent on oil, and transported by oil Power.
Ammonia, Anesthetics, Antihistamines, Artificial limbs, Artificial Turf, Antiseptics,
Aspirin, Auto Parts, Awnings, Balloons, Ballpoint pens, Bandages, Beach
Umbrellas, Boats, Cameras, Candles, Car Battery Cases, Carpets, Caulking,
Combs, Cortisones, Cosmetics, Crayons, Credit Cards, Curtains, Deodorants,
Detergents, Dice, Disposable Diapers, Dolls, Dyes, Eye Glasses, Electrical Wiring
Insulation, Faucet Washers, Fishing Rods, Fishing Line, Fishing Lures, Food
Preservatives, Food Packaging, Garden Hose, Glue, Hair Coloring, Hair Curlers,
Hand Lotion, Hearing Aids, Heart Valves, Ink, Insect Repellant, Insecticides,
Linoleum, Lip Stick, Milk Jugs, Nail Polish, Oil Filters, Panty Hose, Perfume,
Petroleum Jelly, Rubber Cement, Rubbing Alcohol, Shampoo, Shaving Cream,
Shoes, Toothpaste, Trash Bags, Upholstery, Vitamin Capsules, Water Pipes,
Yarn,……
Products from Oil
Let’s Look at Renewables!
They’ve been a goal for a long time!
They get a lot of political play; it’s politically correct!
They would reduce Greenhouse gases vs coal/oil
They won’t run out!
Can they save us?
Can they eliminate dependence on foreign oil?
State of the Union (Who said it? When?)
I urge the energy measures that I have proposed be made the first
priority of this session of the Congress. …..They will prevent the
injustice of windfall profits for a few as a result of the sacrifices of the
millions of Americans.
This must be the year in which we organize a full-scale effort to provide
for our energy needs through the 21st century. Let this be our national
goal: the United States will not be dependent on any other country for
the energy we need
….we plan to spend $10 billion in Federal funds over the next 5 years.
That is an enormous amount. But during the same 5 years, private
enterprise will be investing as much as $200 billion-- and in 10 years,
$500 billion--to develop the new resources, the new technology, the new
capacity America will require for its energy needs in the future.
Richard Nixon’s State of Union Address 1974
State of Union Address (Who said it? When?)
… our country finally has a national energy policy:
The windfall profits tax on crude oil has been enacted, and a massive
investment in the production and development of alternative energy
sources; Solar energy funding has been quadrupled, solar energy tax
credits enacted…. Ethanol production has been dramatically increased,
an amount that could enable ethanol to meet the demand for 10 percent
of all unleaded gasoline;
..it is essential that the Nation reduce its dependence on imported fossil
fuels and complete the transition to reliance on domestic renewable
sources of energy,…
…first step towards widespread introduction of renewable energy sources
and established an ambitious national goal for the year XXXX of
obtaining 20 percent of this Nation's energy from solar and renewable
sources. As a result of these policies and programs… investments in
renewable energy sources have grown significantly.
Jimmy Carter State of Union Address 1980
Renewable energy about 6% of Total
Distribution of
the 6%
i.e. Niagara Falls,
Hoover Dam, Bonneville
Dam, etc 58%
Wood stoves, etc
i.e. Lock 7, NYSEG
Mechanicville, etc
Wind farms
(double this by 2008)
Ethanol
Solar Heat
“For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over
public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.”
—Richard Feynman
Energy Density is very low!
One elephant and 100,000 mice have about the same biomass. Which
do you want to try to harness to move a railcar? It’s possible, but how
practical?
It’s the ENTROPY!
Why so little progress?
Area Required for “one unit” of power
Wind 3000 turbines 40-70 square miles
Solar Photovoltaic 40 square miles
Bio Mass Ethanol 6000 square miles
Bio Mass Wood 12000 square miles
Bio gas 800 million chickens!
Oil/Coal About 1 square mile
Nuclear 0.3 square miles
Taxila Wahcantt 800 sq miles
Rawalpindi 1000 sq miles
Conservation (a must!-part of assumed growth of only 2%)
Renewables (Solar, Wind, Ethanol, Hydro, Geothermal, Bio-mass)
Domestic Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
How to replace Foreign oil “300 units”
(Plus 20 new “units” in demand per year)
Options
Conservation: Must be part of any plan
Some conservation in 2% growth
Doing pretty good! (Next chart) We need to do more!
Cars about 90 units. 10% increase in CAFÉ
saves 9 units when all cars converted (~10yrs)
Reduce our standard of living? Competitive economy
requires abundant energy
World energy demand is growing! (Without us!)
Conserve yes, but can’t save out of the crisis!
Energy Use and Cost
More Cars
TV’s
Electronics
Central air
Computers
Population Growth
Flat, with
“Standard of Living” vs Energy Use
4,000 8,000 12,0000.3
1.0
India
China
Pakistan
Russia
Germany
Australia
Canada
UK
France Japan
U.S.
Annual Electricity Use kWh/Capita
0.6
80% of the world’s
population is
below 0.8 on the
UN’s Human
Development
Index (HDI)
Prosperity
Education
Life span
Electrical Energy Use vs Quality of Life
Why growth in demand?
China, India, Brazil(CIB) 3 billion people
United States 300 million (1/10th)
China, India, Brazil ~1200 kwh/capita
USA ~12000 kwh/capita
When CIB usage goes from 1200 to 2400 kwh/capita,
we would have to go “0” to keep world demand constant!
CONCLUSION: Conservation yes! But we can’t
save our way out of this!
Wind PowerFuel is free, renewable, non-polluting, it’s relatively simple!
But: Wind Power is Intermittent (20 to 40% capacity factor)
40 to 70 square miles (3000 turbines) for 1000 MW
But land may still be useable-pasture/crops/factories…
Diffuse energy creates integration/synchronization issues
Often not produced where needed-transmission
Not grid friendly, need storage or Coal/Nuclear backup!
Is it environmentally acceptable? On mountain peaks?
Near population?
Do as much as possible when feasible and economical.
Maple Ridge Wind Farm
195 Turbines
320 MW installed capacity
$550 Million cost
22000 Acres/34 sq miles
1.6 MW per turbine
Lewis County, Tug Hill Plateau 1600 to 2000 feet elev
Delivers about 0.1 “Unit” on average
Solar Power (World total installed about “16 units”-delivers about “4 units”)
Lots of it, fuel is free, conceptually simple, passive
But: Photovoltaic very costly per megawatt, high maintenance
Solar Thermal costly-need mirrors + heat sink (in the desert?)
Doesn’t work night/cloudy days, capacity factor less than 25%
Energy density extremely low- 40 square miles for 1000MW
Prime locations Southwest desert-far from users
Not Grid friendly, need storage or coal/nuclear backup
Home owners get 30% Fed tax credit
Best use-small scale passive home heating, hot water, remote areas
Solar Photovoltaic
Germany
6 MW
.006 “Units”
Nevada “planned”
6.3 MW
.0063 units
HYDROELECTRIC
Ideal for electric generation, very cost effective, no carbon
dioxide emission, relatively simple.
But: Water distribution diffuse but nature concentrates for us
Not many remaining opportunities to exploit
Environmental concern? – damming of wild rivers?
Useful storage option where available-i.e. pump station
It’s great, use as much as possible, but will be
limited to about 5% of total needs (can we use
tides?)
GEOTHERMAL
Great source of zone heating and electric power where
available. (Like Iceland)
Large heat source deep in earths core, hard to get at,
hard to extract large quantities
Few accessible supplies-need both hot rocks and water
There is a 50 degree F heat sink 10 feet down! How to use it?
Do whenever feasible, but NOT readily available
Possibilities? Maybe!
Nesjavellir Iceland
0.12 “Units” Plus hot water heating
Geothermal Plant
It’s an attractive concept!
It’s Renewable-can be replenished
Plants take Carbon Dioxide back out of the air
But: Uses a lot of land, Competes food supplies
One acre of corn provides 40 or 50 gallons of Ethanol
May use more energy than produced?
One “unit” takes area greater than Rhode Island
Burning wood, converting corn or soy beans into ethanol, use
vegetation to make diesel fuel, algae into diesel!
Biomass
Not a good solution!
OIL/GASOLINE Provides 95% of Transportation, supports many Industrial
Products, Transportation infrastructure is in place
But: High carbon dioxide emission
Cost rising rapidly
Supplies limited- peak oil? Oil shale possibility-costly
We need to import large amounts, economy vulnerable
We’re vulnerable to “blackmail with many dollars going to
our “enemies”
Use for Transportation and Industrial Production.
Drill-will need all we can get-Increase supplies!
NATURAL GASProvides most of the home and commercial heating(cheapest
option), infrastructure in place, domestic supply, easily
transported. High energy content.
But: Upward pressures on price/demand
Rapid growth in use for electrical generation; a more
expensive option
Usable for transportation, but need major infrastructure
Available supplies should be used for home and
commercial heating. Avoid excessive cost growth!
Prairie States Plant Illinois-Planned
1.6 “Units” A newer clean coal plant
New Coal Plant
Nuclear Power
Provides 20% of our electric power; safe, clean, green, Equals
coal with lowest electricity fuel cost.
But: No new plants for 20 years
Waste storage an issue-political?
New plants have high initial construction cost
Public acceptance
Nuclear must be a major source of future energy . Can also be used for producing water and hydrogen. Can
breed new fuel when needed!
North Anna ESP SiteTypical Nuclear Power Plant
Country # Under
Constructio
n
# Planned or
Proposed
Argentina 1
Brazil 1
Bulgaria 1
Canada 1 4
China 4 27
Czech
Republic
2
Egypt 1
Finland 1
France 1
India 9 24
Indonesia 2
Iran 1 4
Israel 1
Country # Under
Construction
# Planned or
Proposed
Japan 2 12
N. Korea 1 1
S. Korea 8
Pakistan 1
Romania 1 3
Russia 4 9
Slovakia 2
So. Africa 1
Turkey 3
Ukraine 1
USA 1
Vietnam 2
Total 24 113
World Nuclear Association, world-nuclear.org
New Nuclear Plants
Uranium Supply
World Reserves! View of Options
Oil-Use 2500 Units of Oil = ~40 billion Barrels/yr
Reserve is ~1300 billion Barrels =~35 to 50 years
Oil sand/shale maybe ~ 30 years more-expensive?
Coal-Use 1800 Units= 3 millions tons of coal
Reserve is ~ 900 billion tons = 200 to 300 years
Natural Gas-Use 1300 Units = 3Trillion Cubic Meters
Reserve is ~ 180 trillion Cubic Meters=60 to 80 years
Uranium- Use 400 Units
Reserve is ~ 200yrs to >>1000’s yrs (with breeding)
Total use is 5000 “Units” per year
SummaryCoal must remain be a major source of our electricity.
Fix the CO2
Nuclear energy must become big player-Open Yucca, reprocess
Oil will be in Short Supply! Costs going up!
Use for transportation/industrial products
Natural gas should be used for home and commercial heating
Wind do as much as practical, develop storage
New capacity likely less than the “20 unit”/yr growth? (60,000 turbines/yr)
Solar and geothermal when economical-will be small players!
Biomass is wrong approach except in special situations
Conclusion
Do renewables when cost effective. They can reduce CO2
Renewables will not be major player in reducing oil dependence
Solar –costly, diffuse-best use-home heating/hot water
Wind viable, can help, but limited and not grid friendly
Bio-mass small player, doesn’t make sense
Making renewables focus is not reality
Obscures the hard choices
Coal & Nuclear will be the major players-do them right!
Oil / Gas will be scarce, prices will go back up! Domestic Drilling
BACKUP SLIDES
USA Energy Source/Use (%)Note: 1% is about 10 of our new “Units”
Natural Gas Production and Price
Goal/Purpose of talk
1. Educate public about our energy crisis; how big is the problem,
how world energy demand effects it, …Put it terms that are
more understandable
2. Show what options are valid/which are not, based science, not
politics!
3. Put current political posturing/pandering on energy in
perspective
4. Briefly discuss pros and cons of the different options
Petroleum, coal, wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, et al
5. This is not a pro nuclear talk, but conclusion is that we should
pursue most options but coal and nuclear are only viable
solutions for foreseeable future.
About 5000 Total “Units”
1 TW approx 400 “units”
World Energy Consumption
Approx
No. EQ
Units
2000
1600
1300
350
150
Barrel of Crude Oil
Understanding the Energy Crisis