UnderstandingPrecisionAdoptionthroughTwoDecadesoftheCropLife PurdueSurvey

BruceErickson,EducationandDistanceOutreachDirector,AgronomyDepartment,PurdueUniversity

JamesLowenberg-DeBoer,ElizabethCreakProfessorofAgri-TechAppliedEconomics,HarperAdamsUniversity

1

Precision Dealer Survey Specs• Conducted yearly 1997 to 2009, then every other year. • Topics:

• Precision technologies used by the retailers in their business• Precision products and services offered to customers• Retailers’ estimation of farmer use of precision practices• Profitability, technology investment, constraints to adoption• Added more data questions in 2017

• Use U.S. CropLife magazine contact list• Respondents include cooperatives, independents, multi-location

regional companies

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• HighlightspublishedinJuneCropLife magazinetheyearofsurvey

• Fullreportspostedonline:http://agribusiness.purdue.edu/precision-ag-survey

Retailer Use of Precision Technology in 2017• GPS Guidance and

sprayer section control is standard practice

• Satellite and aerial imagery used by about half for internal purposes.

4

GPS guidance systems with automatic control (autosteer) for fert/chem application 78%

Auto sprayer boom section or nozzle control 73%

GPS guidance systems with manual control (light bar) for fertilizer/chemical application 55%

Satellite/aerial imagery for internal dealership purposes 52%

Smart scouting using an app on a mobile device to record field situations and locations 44%

Field mapping with GIS to document work for billing/insurance/legal purposes 43%

UAV or drone for internal dealership purposes 34%

GPS to manage vehicle logistics, tracking locations of vehicles, and guiding vehicles tothe next site 34%

Telematics to exchange information among applicators or to/from office locations 24%

Soil electrical conductivity (EC) mapping 22%

Sprayer turn compensation 22%

Other soil sensors for mapping, mounted on a pickup, applicator or tractor (example:pH sensor) 9%

Chlorophyll/greenness sensors mounted on a pickup, applicator or tractor (CropSpec,GreenSeeker, OptRx, etc.) 9%

Retailers Adopted GPS Guidance Rapidly for Internal Business Use (% of Retailers)• Lightbars

rapidly adopted starting in late 1990s

• Autosteerrapidly adopted starting in about 2004

• Both are easy to use and have short run benefits

24%

42% 44%

56%61%

64%67% 68%

73%

79%

66% 65% 63%

55%

5% 6%

20%27%

37%

53% 63% 61%

83%78%

4% 2% 3% 5%4% 4%

6% 5%8%

11%16%

20%

37%34%

2% 3% 1% 3% 3%7%

15%20%

9%

39%

53%

74% 73%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

GPSguidanceGPSguidancewithmanualcontrol/lightbarGPSguidancewithautocontrol/autosteerGPSforlogisticsTelemetry- field-homeofficeGPS-enabledsprayerboom/nozzlecontrol

Retailers Slower to Adopt Sensing Technologies• Return for sensing

technologies more complicated—no return until data is turned into a decision

• Percent of retailers -Note % scale compared to previous slide

6

12%

19% 20%

24% 18%20%

20% 19%

27%

35%32%

41%43%

16%18%

22%20%

28%30%

30%

39%

51% 52%

6%8%

11%

6%9%

13%

13% 12%14%

22%16%

24%

4%7%

6%

9%

3% 3%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Fieldmapping(GIS)forlegal/billing/insur.

Satellite/aerialimageryforinternaluse

Soilelectricalconductivitymapping

UAVs

Chlorophyll/greennesssensors

Othervehicle-mountedsoilsensorsformapping

Ag Retailers Slower to Offer Data Gathering Technologies to Customers (% of Retailers)

• Data collection technologies are foundation of data-driven farming

• Intensive soil sampling services have become almost standard practice.

• After many years over 50% offer satellite imagery

• 2020 numbers are their projections

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33%

45%

38%36%

44%

52%47%45%45%

40%

53%52% 52%57%

67%

82%85%

29%

38%37%34%

41%

50%42%33%

39%

35%

47% 44%47%

49%

57%

78%83%

24%29% 23%

18%24%

30%28%29% 27%26%

34% 39%36%

42%

51% 57%

67%

15%20%

15%11%

16%23% 22%24%

23%19% 24%

29%29%

27%

41%

48%

12% 13%15%

19%15%

26%

23%

25%

33%

48%

59%

71%

24% 23%

28%36% 39%

14% 13%

19%

34%

45%

32%

59%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

GridorzonesoilsamplingFieldmapping(withGIS)YieldmonitorandotherdataanalysisYieldmonitorsales/supportSatellite/aerialimageryGuidance/autosteersales&supportSoilECmappingUAVordroneimagery

Soil Sampling←More dealers sample in grids

than zones

←If zones, soil mapping units or yield maps most common method for delineation

←If grids, 2.5 acres most common size

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54%

67%

47%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Traditional,wholefieldapproach

Gridpattern

Managementzones

41%

32%

14%

13%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

SoilMappingUnit

YieldMap

ElectricalConductivity

Other

1%

8%

64%

27%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

<1acre

1acre- 2.49Acre

2.5acre

2.51acre- 5acre

%ofRespondents

Dealer Offerings of Variable Rate Technologies• % of Retailers• VRT is the action side

of data technologies for data-driven farming

• Most dealers offer VRT services.

• Farmer up take of VRT has been slower

• 2020 are projections

9

81% 84%

20%

32%32%29%

50%45%

41%43%

47%43%

56%56% 54% 54%

69%

9%15% 14%

16%20%

26%23%22%

25%25%

33% 39%42% 42%

64%

33% 37%34%33%

36%33%

44%44% 45% 45%

59%

67%70%

10%12%12% 14%16% 13%

23%23%

22% 22%

27%

17%

42%

3% 3% 4% 3% 2%6% 5% 6%

9% 6%

15%18%

23% 24%

50%

56%

66%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

VRTfertilizerapplication

VRTFertilizer,singlenutrient

VRTFertilizer,multiplenutrient

VRTlimeapplication

VRTpesticideapplication

VRTseedingprescriptions

Farmer Adoption Estimated by Retailers in their Market• % acres in the

retailer’s market area, not % farmers

• GPS guidance becoming standard

• For yield monitor data always a question of use

• 2020 are projections

10

14% 16%20%

22%26%

32% 33%

43%

3% 4% 6%

7% 9% 9%

13%15%

18% 19%

33%

6%

22%

12% 13% 15%19% 21%

17% 18%22%

27%30%

34%37%

41%

45%

62%

3% 4%2%

9%17%

3%4%

3%10%

4% 6%

11%15% 21%

30%

34%

52%

60%

72%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Yieldmonitorw/GPS

Satelliteoraerialimagery

UAVordroneimagery

Gridorzonesoilsampling

SoilECmapping

Chlorophyll/greennesssensorsforNmanagement

Guidance/autosteer

Farmer VRT Adoption Estimated by Retailers• % acres, not %

farmers, in the retailer’s market area

• Substantially higher estimates than USDA and other sources

• Farmer interest in VRT seeding remarkable

• 2020 are projections11

38%

54%

8%

7%

9% 11%13% 15% 15%

19% 22%

27% 26% 27% 31%

5%

6% 7% 8%10% 10%

13%16% 18%

22% 24%

32%

8% 9%11%

15%16%

18% 16%22%

24%

33% 33%31%

41% 40%51%

2% 3%

4%5% 6%8% 7%

10%9%

10%13% 13% 14%

3%

13%

2% 2% 4%3% 3% 4% 5%

7%9% 10%

13%

30%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

VRTnutrientapplication

VRTsinglenutrientapplication

VRTmultiplenutrientapplication

VRTlimeapplication

VRTpesticideapplication

VRTseedingprescription

Nutrient Management and Hybrid/Variety Selection Dominate Decisions Based on Farm Data• 58% of retailers

manage and/or archive yield, soil test and other data for farmers.

• 17% pool that data within their customer base.

• 10% pool that data beyond their customers

• Only 13% of retailers do not help customers with farm data

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17%

18%

29%

20%

31%

25%

33%

23%

37%

55%

85%

44%

39%

34%

40%

39%

45%

38%

42%

37%

30%

10%

29%

32%

28%

32%

22%

27%

27%

30%

25%

11%

3%

10%

11%

9%

7%

8%

3%

3%

4%

2%

5%

1%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Nitrogendecisions

PandKdecisions

Limingdecisions

Overallhybridorvarietyselection

Variablehybridorvarietyplacementinfield

Overallcropplantingrates

Variableseedingrateprescriptions

Pesticideselection(herbicides,insecticides,or…

Croppingsequence/rotationdecisions

Irrigationdecisions

Other

%ofrespondents

Noanswer Noinfluence Someinfluence Majorinfluenceondecision

Retailer Survey: Cost Savings from Precision Ag

Retailer Survey: Yield Gains from Precision Agriculture

Profitability of Precision Service Offerings• % of Retailers• VRT fertilizer

related services usually profitable

• Sensing services (e.g. UAV, satellite/aerial imagery, soil EC, chlorophyll sensors) less profitable

11%

6%

5%

7%

27%

19%

19%

17%

26%

30%

23%

5%

22%

31%

23%

29%

26%

13%

5%

4%

4%

6%

9%

9%

14%

16%

29%

12%

5%

8%

0%

6%

20%

10%

45%

21%

11%

20%

25%

32%

37%

39%

36%

27%

27%

28%

33%

42%

27%

27%

44%

31%

68%

80%

69%

42%

39%

35%

31%

22%

14%

38%

61%

38%

27%

44%

24%

20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Fieldmapping(withGIS)

VRTfertilizerorlimepresc

VRTfertilizerappl

VRTlimeappl

VRTpesticideappl

VRTseedingpresc

Yieldmonitorsales/support

Yieldmonitorandotherdataanalysis

Satellite/aerialimagery

UAV

Guidance/autosteersalesandsupport

Gridorzonesoilsampling

SoilECmapping

Chlorophyll/greennesssensors

Precisionplanterequipsales

Telematicsequipsales

Profit/costmapping

%ofrespondentswhooffertheservice

Don'tknow Notbreakingeven Breakingeven Makingaprofit

Informing the Precision Work Force

• Interviewees showed low levels of knowledge in many critical areas

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Dealer Barriers to Adoption• General

downward trend• Biggest drops in

cost of equipment and demonstrating value

17

72%

51%47%

49%

37%

35%

43%45%

37%40%

35%

28%

40%

61%57%

51%

55%

43%

48%51%

43%

38% 36%

44%

36% 41%

63%

44%46% 42%

36%

42%41%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2004 2008 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

%ofR

espo

nden

tsth

atAgreeorS

tron

glyAg

ree

Thecostoftheequipmentrequiredtoprovideprecisionserviceslimitsourprecisionofferings

Thecostoftheemployeeswhocanprovideprecisionservicesistoohighforprecisionagtobeprofitable

Thefeeswecanchargeforprecisionservicesarenothighenoughtomakeprecisionservicesprofitable

Ourcompetitorspriceprecisionagriculturalservicesatlevelsthatarenotprofitableforus

Demonstratingthevalueofprecisionservicestoourgrowersisachallenge

Dealer Barriers to Adoption

• Uptick in difficulty to find employees

18

47%49%

44%

50%47%

62%

22%19%

23%19% 18% 20%

24%

46%

37%

28%

38%

29%31% 31%

65%62%

54% 54%

45%

56%

50%

29%33%

30%

32%27% 29%

28%

35%

45%49%

41%35%

41% 41%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2004 2008 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

%ofR

espo

nden

tsth

atAgreeorS

tron

glyAg

ree

Itisdifficulttofindemployeeswhocandeliverprecisionagriculturalservices

Lackofmanufacturersupportforprecisionserviceslimitsourabilitytoprovidesuchservices

Creatingaprecisionprogramthataddssignificantlymorevalueforthegrowerthanatraditionalagronomicprogramisdifficultforus

Theequipmentneededtoprovideprecisionserviceschangesquickly,increasingmycosts

Theequipmentrequiredtodeliverprecisionservicesistoocomplexformanyofmyemployeestouse

Incompatibilitiesacrosstypesofprecisionequipmentandtechnology(differentdataformats,inabilitytoshareinformation)limitmyabilitytoofferprecisionservices

CropLife-Purdue Survey Summary:

• GPS guidance technologies have been adopted rapidly by retailers

• Information-intensive technologies more complicated, adoption is slower

• Many ag retailers offering farm data management & archiving• Few ag retailers offer farm data analysis• Creating a profitable data driven ag input supply business is

challenge for retailers

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