Understanding Climate Change, It’s Impact and corrective

measures

3/12/09

Presentation flow

• What is climate change - CC

• Global impact

• Impact on India

• Measures to curb CC

• Mirchi position and actionables

• Key definitions

• Summary of COPs

What is Climate Change

• It is a change in the statistical distribution of weather over periods of time that range from decades to millions of years.

• Simply put - It refers to the change in modern climate

• Currently the gravest climate change is increasing GLOBAL WARMING

Indicators of climate change• Glaciers – thickness and expanse varies with

CC• Vegetation - type, distribution and coverage

varies with CC.• Ice cores - The air trapped in bubbles in the ice can

also reveal the CO2 variations of the atmosphere• Pollen Analysis – change in texture with change in

climate • Insects – mutations to adapt to climate changes

• Sea level changes – the most obvious of them all

Very obvious in fact ….Aral Sea

68,000 Sq Kms 28,000 Sq Kms 17,000 Sq Kms

North Pole is shrinking…• The North Pole is melting for the first time in 55 mn yrs.

• The Ice cap is shrinking @ 6% per yr.

The melting ice is causing an increase in sea levels

• Bangladesh is drowning• A million people get displaced each year due to increasing sea

levels• If not checked , it is predicted that the 1 meter increase in sea level

will inundate 15% of the country and displace 13 mn people

• EU is at risk• 14% of the pop stays on the coastline stays within 500 mts of the

sealine• Economic assets worth Euro 1000 Bn • Annual expenditure to protect infrastructure and human capital –

Euro 3.2 Bn

• Australia • It is predicted that 1 mt increase in vertical sea level will cause the

sea coast to recede by 100 mts• 85% of pop lives within a hrs drive from the coast

Reasons to worry

• 12 of the 13 warmest yrs on record occurred since 1995

• 500 hrs lesser sunshine in North China compared to 50 yrs ago

• 12% increase in Glacier speeds due to accelerated melting

• Sea level has increased 50 mm since 1992

• Ozone hole is 8.5 mn square miles now

• Global snow cover has shrunk by 10% since the 1960s

• Rainfall has increased by 5-10% over the 20th century in the Northern Hemisphere, but has decreased in North and West Africa and parts of the Mediterranean.

• The North Pole sea-ice has thinned by 40% in recent decades in summer and autumn, and decreased in extent by 10-15% since the 1950s in spring and summer.

• The Northern Hemisphere has seen earlier plant flowering, earlier bird arrival and earlier emergence of insects

Reasons to worry

Should India be worried too?

• 7500 kms of densely populated and low lying coastline

• Economy very dependent on natural resource base , thus cannot afford negative environment change

• Has many mountain ranges, rivers and long coastline – all of which can spell disaster if disturbed

• Himalayan glaciers are shrinking at 10-15 mts per yr.

• A 10-year study in and around the Bay of Bengal points to the sea rising 3.14 mm a year in the mangrove swamps of the Sunderbans delta against a global average of 2 mm, threatening the low-lying area which is home to about 4 million people.

• A trend of sea level rise of 1 cm per decade has been recorded along the Indian coast. The major delta area of the Ganga, Brahmaputra and Indus rivers, which have large populations reliant on river resources, will be affected by changes in water regimes, salt water intrusions and land loss.

The damage has already started

• Extreme temperatures and heat spells have already become common over Northern India, often causing loss of human life

The damage has already started

And it will get worse.. By 2050…

• Glaciers – Ganges expected to lose 2/3rd of its July-Sept flow – 1/3rd of India’s irrigated land would be impacted – 500 mn people would face water shortage

• Temperature – Mean winter temp is expected to increase by 3.5 degrees and

summer temp by 2.2 degrees– Higher temperatures also mean faster melting of Himalayan

glaciers and as the melting season coincides with the monsoon season, any intensification of the monsoon is likely to contribute to flood disasters in the Himalayan catchment

• Rainfall– Sharp decline in summer ( which forms 70% of the total) rainfall– Winter monsoon expected to reduce by 10-20%

• Sea level- expected to increase by 50 cms

• Agriculture – It will be adversely affected not only by increase/decrease of

temp but also by shifts in the timing. Higher temperatures reduce the total duration of a crop cycle, leading to a lower yield per unit area

• Health – Increased temperatures can increase the range of vector-borne

diseases such as malaria, particularly in regions where minimum temperatures currently limited the spread of such diseases

And it will get worse.. By 2050…

So what is being done?

In 1992,nations finally admitted that there indeed is a problem !!

United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC or FCCC)

• International environmental treaty produced at the Earth Summit held in Rio in 1992

• Objective - To stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system

• Does not have any mandatory limits on greenhouse gas emissions for individual countries and contains no enforcement mechanisms.

• The treaty was legally non-binding • The treaty however provides for updates (called

"protocols") that would set mandatory emission limits. • It entered into force on March 21, 1994. As at October

2009, UNFCCC had 192 parties – INDIA is part of this treaty

Driving principal – “Common but differentiated responsibility”

• Evolved from the notion of the ‘common heritage of mankind’ and therefore the need to protect it

• Recognizes differences between developed and developing States – In the contributions to global environmental problems– Differences in their respective economic and technical capacity

to tackle these problems

• The Framework Convention on Climate Change states - “Parties should act to protect the climate system on the basis of equality and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities.”

Conferences of the Parties (COP)

• The UNFCCC along with the Intergovernmental panel on Climate change (IPCC), aims to gain consensus through meetings and the discussion with various stakeholders

• The parties to the convention have met annually from 1995 in Conferences of the Parties (COP) to assess progress in dealing with climate change.

• 1995 - COP 1 – Berlin 1995 – Voiced the concerns about the adequacy of countries'

abilities to meet commitments under the Convention.– Berlin mandate was issued , which established a 2-

year Analytical and Assessment Phase (AAP), to negotiate a comprehensive menu of actions for countries

• 1996 - COP 2, Geneva, Switzerland– Acceptance of the scientific findings on climate change made by

the Intergovernmental panel on Climate change (IPCC)– Rejected uniform "harmonized policies" in favor of flexibility– Called for legally binding mid-term targets.

Conferences of the Parties (COP)

1997 - COP 3, The Kyoto Protocol- A key milestone

– For the first time a legally binding limit based treaty was signed • Most industrialized nations and some central European economies

in transition agreed to legally binding reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of an average of 6 to 8% below 1990 levels between the years 2008-2012 and 90% below 1990 levels by 2050

• While 187 countries signed the protocol. 37 industrialized countries committed themselves to a reduction of greenhouse gases

• They agreed to reduce their collective greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2% from the 1990 level.

– The Protocol allowed for several “flexible mechanisms”, such as emissions trading , the clean development mechanism (CDM) and joint implementation to allow developed countries to meet their GHG emission limitations by purchasing GHG emission reductions credits from elsewhere, through financial exchanges, projects that reduce emissions in non-Annex I countries, from other Annex I countries, or from annex I countries with excess allowances.

The Kyoto Protocol

• The United States which in 1990’s contributed to 36% of all emmsions did not sign the Kyoto protocol

• 1998 - COP 4, Buenos Aires– Finalization of unresolved issues in Kyoto – Agreement not achieved - adoption of a 2-year "Plan of Action"

to devise mechanisms for implementing the Kyoto Protocol, • 1999 - COP 5, Bonn, Germany

– It was primarily a technical meeting, and did not reach major conclusions.

• 2000 - COP 6, The Hague, Netherlands– Introduction of the controversial proposal to allow credit for

carbon "sinks" in forests and agricultural lands, satisfying a major proportion of the U.S. emissions reductions.

– Disagreements over consequences for non-compliance by countries

– No resolution on how developing countries could obtain financial assistance to deal with adverse effects of climate change and meet their obligations to the plan

Conferences of the Parties (COP)

• 2001 - COP 6, Bonn, Germany– Some key aggrements were reached:– Flexible Mechanisms: Measures like emissions trading; Joint implementation

and Clean development mechanism were approved – No quantitative limit on the credit a country could claim from use of these

mechanisms – Carbon Sinks : Credit was agreed to for broad activities that absorb carbon from

the atmosphere or store it, including forest and cropland management, and re-vegetation, with no over-all cap on the amount of credit that a country could claim for sinks activities

– Financing: Three new funds were agreed upon to provide assistance for needs associated with climate change; a fund for climate change that supports a series of climate measures; a least-developed-country fund to support National Adaptation Programs of Action; and a Kyoto Protocol adaptation fund supported by a CDM levy and voluntary contributions.

• 2001 - COP 7, Marrakech, Morocco- The main decisions at COP 7 included:– Operational rules for international emission trading among parties were

established– Consequences for failure to meet emissions targets established– Accounting procedures for the flexibility mechanisms established

Conferences of the Parties (COP)

• 2002 - COP 8, New Delhi, India• 2003 - COP 9, Milan, Italy• 2004 - COP 10, Buenos Aires, Argentina• 2005 - COP 11/MOP 1, Montreal, Canada

– It was one of the largest intergovernmental conferences on climate change ever. The event marked the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol.

– Agreement hammered out at the end of the conference to "extend the life of the Kyoto Protocol beyond its 2012 expiration date and negotiate deeper cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions."

Conferences of the Parties (COP)

• 2006 - COP 12/MOP 2, Nairobi, Kenya• 2007 - COP 13/MOP 3, Bali, Indonesia

– Agreement on a timeline and structured negotiation on the post 2012 framework (a successor to the Kyoto Protocol) was achieved with the adoption of the Bali Action Plan

– The Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action was established as a new subsidiary body to conduct the negotiations aimed at urgently enhancing the implementation of the Convention now, up to and beyond 2012.

– These negotiations will take place during 2008 (leading to COP 14/MOP 4 in Poznan, Poland) and 2009 (leading to COP 15/MOP 5 in Copenhagen).

Conferences of the Parties (COP)

• 2008 - COP 14/MOP 4, Poznań, Poland• Delegates agreed on principles of financing for a

fund to help the poorest nations cope with the effects of climate change.

• They also approved a mechanism to incorporate forest protection into efforts

Conferences of the Parties (COP)

2009 - COP 15/MOP 5, Copenhagen, Denmark

• The overall goal in Denmark is to establish an ambitious global climate agreement for the period from 2012 when the first commitment period under the Kyoto protocol expires.

• President Obama and other world leaders have decided to put off the difficult task of reaching a climate change agreement in this COP.

• Focus on reaching a less specific “politically binding” agreement that would punt the most difficult issues into the future

• This “alternative” agreement being suggested by the developed world would require all nations to make their own commitments – as they deem appropriate

• These committements would be collected in one document and would go through more negotiations before becoming legally binding

Implications of these changes

• The burial of legally binding commitments by developed nations would endanger the entire process of guaranteeing emissions reductions where they matter most.

• The developing countries in need of financial assistance and technology would be held to their commitments, even beyond specific project-linked assistance. This would effectively shift the burden of legally binding commitments to the developing countries.

India's stance at Copenhagen • Preservation of the integrity of UNFCCC and Kyoto protocol• The developed countries need to take the lead with specific

quantitative commitments for emissions reductions (without carbon offsets) consistent with the recommendations of the IPCC

• Developed countries outside the Kyoto Protocol need to be brought into the ambit of similar commitments by suitable means

• All nations have a right to the economic and social institutions of their choice to combat global warming. Should not be bound by specific technologies/finance mechanisms etc.

• Technology transfer needs to be led by state-level interventions and green technologies need to be treated as global public goods. Finance must also be primarily routed through multilateral institutions under the aegis of the UNFCCC

Different worlds – different views

• Developed world countries– USA which remains the largest

emission country is yet to come on board

– While rejecting the Kyoto Protocol, effectively set itself against the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” by insisting that it would sign no emission reduction commitment unless the major developing economies were on board

– Japan is campaigning to scrap the Kyoto protocol itself

– South Korea, Canada and Australia also share similar views

• Developing world countries – Depends on the developed world for

technology and finance – wants this to continue

– Wants developed world to fulfill obligations first

Mirchis’ stance – some questions

• What will be our take on CC

• How do we communicate the same in a language that the average listener understands

• Tactical or long term impetus on the subject from a programming standpoint

• Creating awareness or generating change

Key definitions

• Flexible mechanisms• Emissions trading , • Clean development mechanism (CDM) • Joint implementation• Carbon sinks

Summary of key COPs

Thanks