Corrective Measures For Socio-Economic Impact Of COVID-19...

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Corrective Measures For Socio-Economic Impact Of COVID-19 On India Dr. Amit Mishra 1 , Ms Shraddha Verma 2 , Prof(Dr.) Somesh Kumar Shukla Abstract: The COVID-19 widespread has come about in over 2.9 million affirmed cases and over 203 Thousand deaths around the world. In India more than 26 Thousand are suffering and death toll to thousand, While recovered number is Six Thousand till April third weak. It has too started fears of an approaching financial emergency and subsidence. Social removing, self- isolation and travel confinements constrained a diminish within the workforce over all financial segments and caused numerous occupations to be misplaced. Schools have closed down, and the require of commodities and fabricated items has diminished. In differentiate, the require for restorative supplies has essentially expanded. The nourishment segment has moreover seen a extraordinary request due to panic-buying and stockpiling of nourishment items. In reaction to this worldwide episode, we outline the socio-economic impacts of COVID-19 in India and attempt to supply a few arrangements that will offer assistance to the country to recapture its pace of development in coming time. Keywords: Economy, economic impact, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Coronavirus Introduction: The COVID-19 widespread speaks to a genuine wellbeing danger to individuals around the world, and a noteworthy disturbance to existence . It is having a major affect on the worldwide and Indian economies. Each segment of the Indian economy is influenced. A few segments, such as the vitality, travel and neighborliness and benefit businesses, are being especially difficult hit. . The open wellbeing activities required to contain the spread of the infection, such as school closures, states of crisis, and social separating measures, whereas vital, are themselves progressing to altogether affect financial activity. Be that as it may, it‟s vital to emphasize that whereas the affect is expansive, it'll be transitory. Specialists around the world have taken striking and vital measures to contain the spread of the infection and to bolster individuals and businesses through an awfully challenging time. The financial costs of the lockdown are rising each passing day with the affect being felt over sectors. Alochana Chakra Journal Volume IX, Issue V, May/2020 ISSN NO:2231-3990 Page No:3162

Transcript of Corrective Measures For Socio-Economic Impact Of COVID-19...

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Corrective Measures For Socio-Economic Impact Of COVID-19 On India Dr. Amit Mishra

1, Ms Shraddha Verma

2, Prof(Dr.) Somesh Kumar Shukla

Abstract: The COVID-19 widespread has come about in over 2.9 million affirmed cases and over 203 Thousand

deaths around the world. In India more than 26 Thousand are suffering and death toll to thousand, While

recovered number is Six Thousand till April third weak.

It has too started fears of an approaching financial emergency and subsidence. Social removing, self-

isolation and travel confinements constrained a diminish within the workforce over all financial

segments and caused numerous occupations to be misplaced. Schools have closed down, and the

require of commodities and fabricated items has diminished. In differentiate, the require for

restorative supplies has essentially expanded. The nourishment segment has moreover seen a

extraordinary request due to panic-buying and stockpiling of nourishment items. In reaction to this worldwide episode, we outline the socio-economic impacts of COVID-19 in India and attempt to

supply a few arrangements that will offer assistance to the country to recapture its pace of

development in coming time.

Keywords: Economy, economic impact, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Coronavirus

Introduction:

The COVID-19 widespread speaks to a genuine wellbeing danger to individuals around

the world, and a noteworthy disturbance to existence . It is having a major affect on the worldwide and Indian economies. Each segment of the Indian economy is influenced. A

few segments, such as the vitality, travel and neighborliness and benefit businesses, are

being especially difficult hit. . The open wellbeing activities required to contain the spread of the infection, such as school

closures, states of crisis, and social separating measures, whereas vital, are themselves

progressing to altogether affect financial activity. Be that as it may, it‟s vital to emphasize that whereas the affect is expansive, it'll be

transitory. Specialists around the world have taken striking and vital measures to contain the

spread of the infection and to bolster individuals and businesses through an awfully

challenging time. The financial costs of the lockdown are rising each passing day with the

affect being felt over sectors.

Alochana Chakra Journal

Volume IX, Issue V, May/2020

ISSN NO:2231-3990

Page No:3162

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Beneath lockdown, financial action has moderated down altogether over most segments.

In fabricating, as it were nourishment preparing, pharmaceuticals and therapeutic hardware are

operational, whereas development and mining exercises have ended totally. Inside administrations, lion's share of exchange, transportation and neighborliness remains closed, whereas monetary, IT and government administrations stay in part operational. Indeed in control segment which can work, critical lessening in request owing to lockdown is having an unfavorable impact.

In a reaction to „flatten the curve‟ , governments have implemented border

shutdowns, travel confinements and isolate the inhabitants , which constitute the world‟s biggest economies, starting fears of an looming financial emergency and retreat. The

pandemic has set foot in India and is expected to lead the country towards a major slow down.

In an endeavor to get it the turmoil impact on the Indian economy, we summarize the impact of

COVID-19 on the country and the ways to overcame with its for making superior tomorrow for

our country.

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Economic Impact on Agriculture and strategies:

It is crucial to watch that indeed prior than the Corona Virus widespread started,

Indian budgetary framework utilized to be going through a

upward thrust in dinners costs. Information display that dinners expansion had started to

upward pushed from the mid of 2019, coming to, through first month of

2020, levels until presently accomplished in 2013-15 (Figure A). Information on

the discount rate files (WPI) for chosen edit bunches, on hand exclusively until February

2020, show that while WPI for suppers articles has been rising from Admirable 2019 onwards,

the upward push was once pushed with the help of a upward shake within the costs of

vegetables; interior vegetables, the charge of onions, watched through potato and tomato, drove

the WPI up Whereas onion consumptions have come down,

vegetable uses remained intemperate indeed in February 2020.

Figure A : Rates of food inflation in India, Jan 2012 to March 2020 (Source: Tradingeconomics)

Figure B WPI (% change) of agricultural commodities, yearly (Source: MOSPI)

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Agreeing to the Reserve Bank of India bimonthly financial scope explanation, dated March 27,

2020: “as respects expansion, the prints for January and February 2020 point out

that veritable impacts for the quarter are running 30 bps over projections, reflecting the onion

charge shock”. Be that as it may, the RBI‟s assessment is

that suppers swelling weights will drop, seeing that blend request is likely to debilitate due to

the reality of the Corona emergency. Buyer price indices (CPI) for suppers also point out a

comparable design of a upward pushed after Admirable 2019, with a few debilitating in January

and February 2020 (Figure C). The calculate is that on the off chance that expansion rises

in March 2020 and afterward, it'll be on apex of an as of now rising rate curve.

Figure C Consumer Food Price Index, India, January 2017 to February 2020 (Source: MOSPI)

The rabi wheat ,mustard, which got to come in with the help of April 2020,

the situation is expected to ease advance. Additionally, for beats, the

National Agrarian Agreeable Showcasing Alliance of India (NAFED) is recommended to

have offers of 2.25 MT as on March 19, 2020. Between 2014-15 and 2018-19, NAFED has made

an unparalleled record acquirement of 91.1 lakh MT of oilseeds and beats (61.3 lakh MT

of beats and 30.3 lakh MT of oilseeds) underneath the Cost Back Conspire, up through 1205 per

cent from the 7 lakh MT obtained between 2009-10 and 2013-14. Here once more, the deluge of

rabi beats into the market in April 2020 is expected to ease the situation further.

Within the case of milk, AMUL has cited that its obtainment from 35.9 lakh agriculturists all

through India is plans easily. In expressions of amount, this amounts to dispersing 1.60

lakh liters of milk each day all through India. As the lockdown continues,

AMUL anticipates request to decline.

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In different words, the common provide scenario of quintessential meals objects does no

longer show up to be too worrisome in India at this point. However, if the lockdown

proceeds past a month, the grant state of affairs will come to be tighter. Coupled with grant

bottlenecks, costs can also start to rise. Here, the fee curve may additionally start to appear

like a U-shaped curve, with a sharp fall in expenses in the preliminary days of the lockdown

changed by means of a sharp upturn in expenses in the later days.

Gathering and showcasing vegetation at the cultivate degree is in emergency all

through the nation, due to the truth are (a) disturbances within the acquirement of dinners grains

by utilizing authorities agencies; (b) disturbances within the arrangement of harvests from

the ranches by utilizing non-public dealers; (c) a shortage of individuals to collect the rabi edit;

(d) a shortage of drivers within the transportation segment; (e) barricades within

the movement of agricultural commodities all through the basic interstates; (f) closure

or confined operations of mandis; and (g) shutdowns within the retail agrarian markets.

These components have driven to a fiasco in a vary of plants as well: wheat, grapes,

watermelons, bananas, muskmelon, chana, cotton, chillies, turmeric, cumin, coriander, onion,

and potato.

The return of numerous vagrant individuals to their properties has assumed that gather operations are not

taking zone easily, and numerous agriculturists are being forced to depart the trim within

the field. Misfortunes to agriculturists will be the exceptionally best in such

cases. Whereas mechanical gatherers can be utilized, lockdown rules disturb their

free development. Encourage, in a few places, a shortage of drivers/operators for

these collectors has furthermore been detailed. As computing gadget reestablish retail outlets are closed

and mechanics develop to be inaccessible for work, save components

are notwithout trouble accessible, fundamental to numerous machines being cleared out unused. Within

the rice plants of Kerala, audits point out a shortage of vagrant laborers, which has driven to

these plants not paying for sufficient materials of paddy from agriculturists. Agriculturists have

both not gathered at all, or have collected and cleared out the item near to the areas. Labour shortages are

additionally being skilled in most milk processing plants, and warehouses.

Supply chains have been disturbed all through the us of a for a change of commodities. The

primary dependable notice on lockdowns appears to have been ill-thought out, primary to

the prohibition of a run of things to do from the posting of fundamentally objects

(this secured indeed cleaning cleanser and sterile cushions until March 30, 2020). In Figure D, I

have attempted to outline the outfit chain influences the utilize of a all inclusive flowchart of

the promoting channels of suppers grains/vegetables in provincial India.

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Figure D Representative marketing channels for vegetables in India, with potential bottleneck

(Source:Author‟s estimates from news reports)

Impact on Education:

The shape of training and learning, together with instructing and evaluation methodologies, was once the

first to be affected via these closures. Only a handful of non-public faculties ought to undertake on line

educating methods. Their low-income personal and authorities college counterparts, on the different hand,

have totally shut down for now not having get admission to to e-learning solutions. The students, in

addition to the overlooked possibilities for learning, no longer have get admission to to healthful

ingredients at some point of this time and are concern to monetary and social stress.

The greater concern, however, on everybody‟s idea is the impact of the disorder on the employment rate.

Recent graduates in India are fearing withdrawal of job presents from corporates due to the fact of the

contemporary situation. The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy‟s estimates on unemployment shot

up from 8.4% in mid-March to 23% in early April and the city unemployment charge to 30.9%.

Needless to say, the pandemic has changed the centuries-old, chalk–talk educating mannequin to one

driven

by technology. This disruption in the shipping of schooling is pushing policymakers to parent out how to

power engagement at scale whilst making sure inclusive e-learning options and tackling the digital divide.

One, instantaneous measures are fundamental to make sure continuity of studying in authorities faculties

and universities. Open-source digital gaining knowledge of options and Learning Management Software

need to be adopted so instructors can behavior educating online. The DIKSHA platform, with attain

throughout all states in India, can be similarly bolstered to make sure accessibility of studying to the

students.

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In this time of crisis, a well-rounded and nice instructional exercise is what is wanted for the capacity-

building of younger minds. It will increase capabilities that will pressure their employability,

productivity, health, and well-being in the a long time to come, and make certain the ordinary

development of India.

Impact on Healthcare:

The Covid-19 outbreak has severely impacted the income technology of hospitals throughout the

country; this is possibly to proceed until 1HFY21. The out-patient division (OPD) section of the

businesses in Ind-Ra‟s area is running at 20% of the in the past base case expectations, majorly

on account of the lockdown, coupled with the inhibitions of the established public to keep away

from going to hospitals as a precautionary measure.

Similarly, the in-patient division (IPD) section has been impacted by using the government‟s

notification to put off non-essential and optionally available surgeries. The phase is running at

round 25% of the base case assumptions and it is believed the style will proceed until 1QFY21.

Also, the clinical tourism has taken a hit, with nil income anticipated until 1HFY21.

The lower-than-expected FCF, alongside with non-deferrable constant costs, will have an effect

on the momentary liquidity of the phase and stretch the debt carrier insurance ratios (DSCR).

This will end result in the businesses relying rather on refinancing and father or mother support.

The money waft generations of the hospitals rated by means of Ind-Ra have been impacted in the

ultimate 30 days due to the decline in the scale of operations.

Fixed prices such as physician salaries, worker costs, and session charges, which make a

contribution 50%-60% to the ordinary fees for a hospital, may additionally now not be deferrable

for the healthcare segment, not like different sectors, as one of the important challenges for

hospitals is to continue their resources. Hence, the margin profiles are anticipated to be impacted

negatively in contrast to Ind-Ra‟s formerly base case expectations.

Hospitals‟ internet working capital cycle ought to elongate in FY21, majorly due to the troubles

pertaining to stock administration and greater debtor days. An make bigger in the procurement

fee of consumables such as drugs and sanitisers from the pharmaceutical zone for healthcare

businesses would have an impact on the margin profiles.

Active pharmaceutical substances (APIs), which shape the foremost component of uncooked

substances for drug manufacturing, are majorly imported from China (around 70%) due to the

low price of imports. Though the authorities has categorized pharma operations underneath

necessary services, the scale of operations has declined due to the lack of API imports from the

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Chinese markets alongside with the fall in consumption. However, this ought to end result in

incremental rate threat on the complete grant chain for the sector, the notice added.

Moreover, pharma gamers are exploring an choice supply of purchasing APIs in the meanwhile.

While it may additionally create increase possibilities for home API manufacturers, assembly the

required capacities and requirements would be a challenge. The decline in the scale of operations

of healthcare carrier companies has additionally resulted in a dip in the stock consumption

considering the fact that March 2020 and this is probable to continue to be low until 1QFY21

which would supply the tons wanted time for the pharma gamers to construct the required stock

levels.

Furthermore, any delays in restoring to unique capacities of the pharmaceutical quarter would

have an effect on the healthcare section due to excessive correlation amongst the two sectors.

Also, shifting beforehand the incremental increase in Covid-19 instances will be the key thing to

verify the quarter dynamics. Domestically, the costs required to check for Covid-19 signs and

symptoms are included with the aid of kingdom governments whereas for the Covid-19

tremendous cases, the present insurance plan schemes are overlaying the expenditure. For

beneath poverty line cases, Covid-19 advantageous humans will be blanketed underneath

Ayushman Bharat Health Insurance Scheme, a central authorities scheme. Though these

insurance plan schemes provide the required funding aid for the hospitals to raise on their redress

for Covid-19 patients, an make bigger in such sufferers in contrast to its money sufferers will end

result in accelerated debtor days and an elongated internet working capital. Chemicals Indian chemical venture sources raw texture from China, in any case most businesses

have adequate stock to cater to request within the near-term (at slightest for the cutting-edge

quarter) and with slow resumption of work in Chinese manufacturing

plants, give inconveniences are expected to

be settled. Moreover, rough subordinates as raw texture for chemical offices will be colossal for

the net edges given drop in oil costs. Household solid point and Agro-chemicals gamers

with vigorous allow chains and in reverse integration are conceivably to advantage.

Pharma

Indian pharmaceutical bunches are send out situated with over the top exposure to US and

Europe. These economies are expected to drowsy down with preparatory measures on exchange,

which need to have a cascading affect on domestic pharma producers. At the rise

to time uses of raw substances like APIs have quickened due to diminish in accessibility from

China which is the greatest source, affecting benefit of the segment. On a sublime note,

these raw substances are subsidiaries of unrefined oil and the modern massive drop in oil costs

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will pick up them within the medium-term as organizations normalise. India imports 69% of

its entire pharma-bulk capsules intermediates from China Players have sourced

their raw substances and made buffer offers for 2-3 months, previously of excursion term in

China. It is anticipated to have unbiased influence in wake of sufficient stock stock.

Auto ancillaries impacted due to excessive publicity in China, US and Europe

Affected by utilizing give chain issues, the remote cash devaluation in

addition likely to extend the raw texture fetched, as most of the organizations have 10-15 per

cent consequence substance. The undertaking is reeling underneath the strain

of diminish pay due to extend in car charge (owing to BS-VI move) and restriction within

the remaining one year. The endeavor is looking at the approaching scrappage scope which is

due to be presented by implies of the specialists within the near to future.

India imports 19 per cent of its car angles and 32 per cent of its tires necessities from China. The

inventories for these two portions are satisfactory for the brief term, however lack of

single crucial thing can harm OEMs. Neighborhood Indian auto-component makers can no

longer right presently capitalize on the void made with the help of China because it takes time

for OEMs to recalibrate their allow chain.

Material & clothing influenced due to intemperate reliance on China

Being trade situated and furthermore with intemperate trades reputation to

China, request viewpoint remains repressed. The organizations ought to no longer develop as

an substitute excursion spot for the world cloth venture due to the truth of reliance on inputs

from China like zippers, buttons etc. Withdrawals of key motivation plans like Stock Trade from

India Plot, proposes diminish pay viewpoint. Attire undertaking in India will advantage within

the long-term as client‟s leisure activity to move venture from China

to diverse rising universal areas like India. After an preparatory draw out due to COVID-

19 affect, shipments from China to the US have continued to customary levels. Feb/Mar‟20

has seen vigorous residential texture request in US due to more noteworthy than common

stocking through world retailers, as per our channel checks, expressed JM in its record and

brought this request is likely to decrease off in Q2CY20.

The sector‟s reliance on sends out is moo. India trades 1 per cent of total ready-made dress , it

produces annually to China. Due to rising costs, sourcing

of attire is exchanging to more charge areas such as India. COVID-19 flare-

up is expected to give additionally conceivable outcomes for the Indian Materials and

RMG segment. Be that as it may, for Material Cotton Yarn zone it said,

the range is especially based on trades as China‟s share is over the top at 27 % of entire send

out of cotton yarn. Diminish in India‟s sends out to China will put in expansion strain

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on domestic consumptions of cotton yarn, which is terrible for the segment. Successfully, this

will lead to diminish edges of cotton yarn players.

Metal - demand and charge pressures, however home probability intact

Request is expected to be descending for the Metals zone due to diminish universal boom which

may moreover have an impact on estimating vitality of steel stocks. As of now, imports from

China are at circular $6000 million while trades are underneath $1000 million,

which means a enormous chance for Indian gamers to cater to domestic request. In any case,

the infection unfurl nearby with Large scale headwinds ought to have

an impact on domestic metal utilization and include instability to metal prices.

Banking and finance - fall in international hobby yield is the concern

Drop in around the world bond yields recommends intemperate amplify in worldwide money

related & financial chance, which ought to be the finest conceivable trouble for Indian banks, indeed in

spite of the fact that Other Pay will spike for banks due to treasury picks up. Separated from

the quickened precise hazard, PSU banks are by and by show prepare basic exchange with

the ponder mergers, while befuddled resource stresses continue for Banks and NBFCs. The current Yes

Bank inconvenience has highlighted operational peril of little individual banks. Considering the

Gold costs, NBFCs with gold as collateral are tons higher situated than their peers.

FMCG & purchaser durables face constrained impact

In spite of the fact that there will be a minimal drop in prevalent utilization and request lull, the

sharp decay in unrefined will advantage the venture with markdown in bundling and

transportation costs. Companies have seen kept impact on account of give chain disturbances due

to the truth of stock build-up in development of season. Be that as it

may, amplified disturbance can have an have an impact on and related expense increments. “We

can expect secure increment in commercial venture while over the top valuation will be

a obstacle to function within the short-term”,

India imports forty five per cent certainly built contraptions of client durables from China.

In expansion, India also imports bulk of client durables components from it. Players have as of

now supplied stock, so influence will be felt exclusively within the course of the stopped of Q4

FY20. Item costs ought to upward bump in coming months (April-May 2020). The climb in

GST costs from 12 % to 18 % recently will furthermore extend costs of cellular handsets. India

had a really over the top reliance on China in case imports of Gadgets (counting cellular

handsets). It imported circular sixty seven per cent of its necessities in FY‟19. In spite of the fact

that India progressed from collecting to fabricating of low-

end computerized components, consequence reliance remains high.

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Oil & Gas - high quality for refiners whilst terrible for explorers

The essential demand outlook has debilitated which is

able decrease utilization from Businesses and Retail. The unrefined oil

rate rectification incorporates a mixed have an affect on on oil & fuel companies.

Upstream enterprises will see incomes contrarily affected on account

of diminish oil costs while downstream enterprises will advantage from diminish expenses of

refining and as a result Net Refining Edges and publicizing and showcasing edges will improve.

India trades 34 per cent of its total petrochemicals yield to China. Sends out to China would be

hit; finding modern markets at once is checked. Indian petchem is incapable to capitalise on

COVID-19 impact, due to over the top use. Petrochemicals costs and edges will be underneath so

also strain due to the virus. In case of Plastics, India imports forty four per cent of

its entire plastics necessity from China. It is progressing

to have sublime influence on domestic Plastic undertaking as markdown in reasonable Chinese

imports will pick up home manufacturers.

Amusement, aviation and tourism are appalling due to confine on open gathering

Fear of the infection unfurl and limitations situated will have

an impact on entire neighborliness locale which comprises of film holder working

environment collections, film dispersion pay, commercial benefits for film homes and media

businesses and also impact segments like excitement parks. Travel confinements are likely to

have cloth influence in near to time period due to flight

cancelations primary to diminish utilizations and distinctive related charges offsetting any

positive perspectives in gasoline enter costs. The closure of borders and limitations on visit will

have an influence on tourism and its associated sectors.

Gem and Jewellery:

India is very depended on China with appreciate to precious stone, because it trades 35 per cent

of its cleaned precious stones to China. Share of jewel sends out to the region has been declining

for a few time due to thought processes distinctive than COVID-19. In any case, rescheduling of

the Hong Kong Universal Gems Appear and consequential convulsions of COVID-19

will unfavorably have an impact on trades and hose the domestic endeavor in Q4 FY20.

Shipping and Logistics:

Over 90% of the universal interchange is by ocean. China is key utilization middle for bulk

capsules and holders. China cash owed for 70-75 per cent of press mineral exchange, 20-25 per

cent of coal interchange and 25-30 per cent for unrefined oil universally. The COVID-19 flare-

up is expected to protect the request and cargo costs moo within the fast time period for the

sector.

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Center for monitoring Indian Economy has stated that in April rate of unemployment in country

has reached 26.2 % . 14 Corers people have lost their work. Rural unemployment has also

reached 26.70%. The decrease in agricultural activities due to Corona Virus is a reason for this.

This should be seen as a chance for reverse migration. People should be provided work in their

villages only in small scale industries. Such short term and long term schemes should be initiated

by the Central and State Governments.

Mahatama Gandhi once said

“To become self reliant economy We shall have to make rural economy a developed one

because rural youth should become self dependent instead of migrating to cities”

The pandemic is possibly to influence the India’s Economy thru the following 4 vectors

Supply Disruptions:

Dependence on China for Imports of uncooked and intermediate materials.

Higher enter expenditures and decreased profibality, main to decline in potential

building.

Supply aspect disruption can also be transient as China revive manufacturing units.

Global & Domestic Demand:

Consumer spending to take a hit due to motion restrictions and worry of falling sick.

Reduced wealth impact due to falling share prices.

Hospitality and aviation sectors are impacted the most at a brief span of time.

Low profitability and manufacturing have an impact on enterprise sentiments and

investments

Loss of employment, in particular in the casual area and for contractual people , reduces

customer spending.

Demand on pinnacle few export locations (China, USA & Europe) accounting for 40

percentage of India‟s exports is severely hit.

Stress on banking and monetary sectors and parameters:

Banks:

Exposure to confused industries and MSMEs

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Rising patron mortgage default due to the fact of excessive unemployment and family

leverage.

Stress on banks have an effect on deposit growth.

Capital Market & Financial Parameters:

The inventory market has fallen 30 p.c given that pandemic started out spreading in the

west .

A sharp depreciation of rupee towards the dollor worsens change deficit as exports

contribution to GDP is low.

Rising bond yields make borrowing extra expensive, there by means of decreasing

financial institution margins.

Falling Oil Prices

Oil expenses have fallen sharply, Brent crude oil fell from US Dollor 68.5 per barrel on

three Jan to Less than One Dollor per barrel on 24 April.

Lower oil costs may want to be a boon for India;s twin deficit.

China’s slowdown is expected to significantly impact various industries in India

Expected 2 % slowdown in Chinese production shall provide an opportunity to Indian

industries close to 350 Million USD. In future it is estimated to rise. This will provide an

extension to Indian industries in the background of COVID 19.

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Possible consequences of COVID 19 on India’s outlook:

Scenario One: Optimistic situation with a V fashioned recovery:

The contagion is managed effectively via June 20 via nice authorities interventions than

economic system begins recuperating from 2d quarter of FY21 and gain speedy monetary boom

thereafter.

Scenario Second: Somewhat constructive with extreme have an effect on and a Ushaped

recovery:

Supply chain trouble multiplies and world demand declines sharply. In India, there is restrained

success in controlling the spread. The economic system resumes returned to existence and

witnessed normalcy from fourth quarter of 2021.

Scenario Second: Pessimistic state of affairs with a new low degree of normal:

In India, the sickness spreads unexpectedly main to a steep decline in demand and cuts in

production. The state of affairs eases in Q1 of Year 2022 after which the financial system

revives, however modestly now not unexpectedly with unequal restoration throughout sectors.

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Measures to be taken for lacking sectors amidst COVID-19 Background: Requirement of finance by Government of India due to lock down -2.0 According to the report given by ASSOCHEM India needs funds of Rupees 14 Lakh Corores to

bring economy back to normality in the background of COVID-19 after lock down 2.0. We here

by suggest few measures that would be taken to raise this fund .

1. C.S.R. could provide approx 50,000 Coreres Rupees to Government for coming back to

normal economic status.

2. A cut down may be made for some stipulated time to benefits/allowances given to Officers and Public representatives like MP‟s, MLA‟s and MLC,s etc., The amount shall

provide approx 32,000 Coreres Rupees.

3. A stay on government advertisements shall save Rupees 1 Lakh and 60,000 Coreres

Rupees. It shall include both Central and State Governments.

4. 20 percent reduction on salaries of CEO‟s/ Senior Level corporate officers, shall generate

a fund of 10,000 Corers Rupees.

5. 20 Percent of the amount generated by properties and investment returns owned by

different religious bodies like Temples, Mosques, Churches, Waqf Boards and

Gurudwaras etc may provide an additional 66,000 Coreres Rupees to the

government.

6. Approx 32,000 Corers INR from reduction in welfare funds of Parliamentarians and

legislative members.

7. Central government should bring a Corona Tax Free bond of approx 01 Lakh Corere

rupees to mobilize funds. State Government should do the same for an amount of 50,000

thousand crores rupees.

8. Reduction in price of Crude Oil has led to 200 Lakh Crores Rupees benefit to the

government.

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Suggested Steps for Government:

1. Government is continuous disinvesting from public limited companies like Air

India, BSNL etc, In hardships such public companies helps government and Indian

masses, Government should help them in structured manner instead of

disinvestment.

2. Some relief should be given to SSI for GST and import tax should be increased

so that domestic goods and services are availed more, So that our step towards

self reliant economies taken.

3. India and China have less dependencies on world trade. If India produces more

variety and volume of materials required for raw input than we can becoe a key

player in global trade.

4. Savings from China is 47& where as in India its 30%, If we increase our domestically

produced goods and services consumption than we can increase our savings, that will

provide us shield of economic safety.

5. India can be alternative to china in migration of industries from China due to its role

in this pandemic. Like help of 1600 Corers Rupee by Japan if its Companies migrate

from China to other Asian Place, We have a chance to grab this or more for

increasing production and employment within our nation.

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Conclusion: With fears of a new recession and financial collapse, times like these call for resilient and strong

leadership in healthcare, business, government and wider society. Immediate relief measures

need to be implemented and adjusted for those that may fall through the cracks. Medium and

longer term planning is needed for how the economy is rebalanced and re-energised following

this crisis. A broad socioeconomic development plan including sector by sector plans and an

ecosystem that encourages entrepreneurship so that those with robust and sustainable business

models can be allowed to flourish. It is prudent that governments and financial institutions

constantly re-assess and re-evaluate the state of play and ensure that the „whatever it

takes’ promise is truly delivered.

Till date government has been providing policy to the market but time has come now when

policies have to be drafted after being the circumstances of the market, so that India becomes

an alternative to China on world level. This shall lead to build up of a self reliant nation-

‘A SELF RELIANT INDIA’.

References:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/coronavirus

www.msn.com/en-in/news/newsindia/the-environmental-impact-of-covid-19/

https://www.peoplematters.in/article/talent-management/impact-of-covid-19

https://auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377123720300605

https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/how-covid-19-will-impact-2020-planting-

decisions

https://www.fb.org/land/impact-covid19-on-ag

https://www.financialexpress.com/money/how-covid-19-will-impact-

https://www.oneindia.com/international/covid-19-impact-400

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/covid-19-impact

www.livemint.com/news/india/mint-covid

www.sintechpumps.com/covid-19/covid-19-impact-on-indian-economy

www.zillow.com/pandemic-literature-review

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