Uncertainty of Climate Change Impact on the Flow ... · - Hydrological system AquaLog - Statistical...
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Uncertainty of Climate Change Impact Uncertainty of Climate Change Impact on on the Flow Characteristics the Flow Characteristics (Tepl (Tepl á á Vltava Vltava River River ) ) Jan Daňhelka Czech Hydrometeorological Institute e-mail: [email protected] 12 th Magdeburg Seminar Český Krumlov, 10 th to 13 th October 2006
Transcript of Uncertainty of Climate Change Impact on the Flow ... · - Hydrological system AquaLog - Statistical...
Uncertainty of Climate Change Impact Uncertainty of Climate Change Impact on on the Flow Characteristicsthe Flow Characteristics
(Tepl(Tepláá Vltava Vltava RiverRiver))
Jan Daňhelka
Czech Hydrometeorological Institute
e-mail: [email protected]
12th Magdeburg Seminar
Český Krumlov, 10th to 13th October 2006
• Climate change uncertainty
• Methods of modeling
• Results
• Medium range modelling
• Conclusion
OUTLINE
Arnell et al. (1999)
Kašpárek in Kalvová et al. (2002)
GCM
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN
rela
tive
chan
ge o
f mon
thly
pre
cipi
tatio
n
A2 50 A2 80 B2 50 B2 80
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN
abso
lute
cha
nge
of m
ean
mon
thly
tem
pera
ture
[°C]
A2 50 A2 80 B2 50 B2 80
Study catchment
- Hadley high and low scenario for 2050
- LARS-WG - 50y daily time series (MAP, Tmax, Tmin)
- Different duration of wet and dry spells (max 10 % change)
- Different reference period
- 1961 - 1990
- 1961 - 2003
- 100 random sets
- Hydrological system AquaLog
- Statistical evaluation
Methods
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
accumulted observed precipitation [mm]
accumulated simulated precipitation [mm]
LARS-WG
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Temperature [°C]
Observed Tmin Simulated Tmin Difference (OBS-SIM)
LARS-WG
0
5
10
15
20
25N
OV-
65
DEC
-65
JAN
-66
FEB-
66
MAR
-66
APR
-66
MAY
-66
JUN
-66
JUL-
66
AUG
-66
SEP-
66
OC
T-66
Dai
ly fl
ow [m
3 .s-1
]
Observed Simulated
Hydrological model - AquaLog
RESULTS
1000
1020
1040
1060
0 1a 1b 2a 2b 3a 3b 4a 4b
prec
ipita
tion
[mm
]
0
1
2
3
4
0 1a 1b 2a 2b 3a 3b 4a 4b
Ave
rage
Tm
in [°
C]
Annual peakflow occurrence
Flood return period
355 d.p.
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
exceedance (%)
m3 .s
-1
Recent climate
High climate change scenario
1961-90 1961-2003
Low flows
Coclusion
- uncertainty modeling of climate change impact is necessary(deterministic modeling could lead to wrong results)
- flow exceedance curves are going to change
- mainly low flows simulation shows the need for probability approach
- Flood season - more summer dominance (more research needed)
Thank You for Your Attention
Jan Daňhelka
Czech Hydrometeorological Institute
hydro.chmi.cz/ihc_ips4
