Un Vistazo al Comercio Marítimo en Centro América
Transcript of Un Vistazo al Comercio Marítimo en Centro América
Un Vistazo al Comercio Marítimo en Centro América
Robert West
+1 617 309 0521
28 de Agosto 2019
Antigua, Guatemala
Soc. Port. de Buenaventura
1
27 Years of industry experience…
Outsourcing of labor intensive engineering services at hourly rates 45 % - 65 % lower than U.S commercial rates.
Specialized consulting for infrastructure with an emphasis in ports and harbors.
Processing Big Data to provide international trade business intelligence to increase your market share, with two successful products, DuPort Data for ports DuTradeData for enterprises
2
Clients & Collaborators
Commonwealth Trading Partners
JHConsultants
3
The world economic outlook is . . .
Strong & steady
Source: IMF July 2018 World Economic Outlook
2016 2017 2018 2019
Real GDP (%) 3.2 3.8 3.9 3.9
Inflation Not an issue in generalEurope More stable, but still a museumChina Continued strength, but slowerUSA 2.3% but ?????
REPICA – Dominican Republic 2018
4
The world economic outlook now is . . .
“Still Sluggish Global Growth”
Source: IMF July 2019 World Economic Outlook
2017 2018 2019 2020
Real GDP (%) 3.8 3.9 3.2 3.5
Inflation “Subdued” in generalEurope More stable, but still a museumChina Continued strength, but slowerUSA 2.3% but ?????
5
Reasons for caution
• World TEU trade growth in 2018 was 4.0%• We had predicted 6.5%• 2019 should improve to 4.8% - response to tariffs
• Latin America• Real GDP = 0.6% in 2019, then 2.3% in 2020• TEU trade = 6.0%
• Caribbean and Central America economic outlook• Caribbean = 3.4% in 2019• Central America = 3.9% in 2019, perhaps 4.0% in 2020
6Sources: HIS Markit, IMF, Duaga
Big picture
• North America and Europe are pulling the train, for now, but they are slowing down (quickly, in the case of the US)
• China exports will soon slow to NA because of the trade war
• Hence, exports from Latin America to China have slowed
• Asia’s incomes are still very low and not big enough to fill the shoes of a slowing NA and EU
• LAC has not developed a manufacturing base and an internal consumption market – this should be a long term strategic goal for the region
In the short term, the economic outlooksare fairly positive – some optimism
8Sources: IMF July 2018, LatinFocus, TradingEconomics,BBVA, FocusEconomics. DUAGA Nicaragua Central Bank,The World Bank, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Colombia 2.0% 1.8% 2.5% 3.0%Chile 1.7% 1.5% 3.5% 3.2%Costa Rica 4.2% 3.2% 3.4% 3.5%Dom Rep 6.6% 4.6% 5.0% 4.0%Mexico 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3%Panamá 5.7% 5.5% 5.0% 5.2%Peru 3.9% 2.7% 3.8% 3.7%USA 1.6% 2.1% 2.8% 2.4%Argentina -1.8% +2.9% +2.0% 3.2%Brazil -3.5% +1.0 % +2.3% 2.5%Nicaragua 4.7% 4.9% 1.0% ?Venezuela -16.5% -14.0% -15.0% -6.0%
Po
siti
veW
eak
2016 2017 2018 2019
In the short term, the economic outlooksare lower than forecast at REPICA, 2018
9Sources: IMF July 2019, LatinFocus, TradingEconomics,BBVA, FocusEconomics. DUAGA Nicaragua Central Bank, The World Bank, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Colombia 2.7% 3.0% 3.2%Chile 4.0% 3.1% 3.1%Costa Rica 3.4% 2.8% 2.8%Guatemala 2.8% 2.6% 2.7%Mexico 2.2% 1.5% 1.8%Panamá 5.0% 4.9% 4.8%Peru 3.8% 3.6% 3.7%USA 2.8% 2.6% 1.9%Argentina +2.0% 1.3% 2.1%Brazil +2.3% 1.4% 2.3%Nicaragua -3.8% -5.2% -0.9%Venezuela -15.0% -24.6% -3.8%
Po
siti
veW
eak
2018 2019 2020
3.0%3.2%3.5%2.8%2.3%5.2%3.7%2.4%3.2%2.5%1.0%-6.0%
2019 –Last Year
Central America economic growth outlook
10
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panama
Central AmericaReal GDP Growth Forecast
2019 2020
BCIE foresees 3.0-3.4% for 2019 and 2020, not including Panama.
Sources: The World Bank, BCIE
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
Costa Rica Panama Nicaragua El Salvador Honduras Guatemala
2018 TEUs and Growth %
Container volume is dominated by Panama, 2018
11
-0.4%
0.2%
1.2% 10.0%2.0%
10.0%
Source: CEPAL
Biggest traders are at each end of the isthmus
12Opportunity for short-sea shipping
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
Costa Rica Nicaragua El Salvador Honduras Guatemala
2018 TEUs
Source: CEPAL
Short sea shipping in the regionPacific
13APL’s Mexico - Central America Service
ONE – Cen Amer & DR
14
HOUSTON
Short sea shipping in the region
15
PORTS - Drivers of expansion
8/30/2019
Economic Growth
Trade Growth
Maritime Trade
Bigger Ships
Bigger & Better Equipment
4.1%/yr in emerging economies
8-10%/yr in value terms ($$$)
5-7 %/yr in volume terms (TEUs)
24,000 TEUs (MSC). Lower costs
Faster, more TEU/hour
Fewer port callsMore transshipment
PORTSSource: IMF
Dark clouds of the trade war
• Cost to the world economy could be $585 billion• US-China tariffs could hit 4+ million TEUs of trade
• All kinds of products
• TransPacific TEUs will grow 4% in 2019• Slower in 2020 if tariffs remain, which is likely
Bloomberg, Aug 19 201917
US Agriculture exports to China
18Source: American Farm Bureau Federation
2017 2018 2019 2020
$19.5 $9.1 $5.0 $0.0?
Billions of USD
+$12-16bn in one-time hand-out to farmers
H1/2019
Grains ($647)
Cotton ($245)
Tobacco ($158)
Dairy ($100)
Livestock ($87)
Non-Ag Prods ($32)
Oilseeds ($19)
These products are in over-supply.
Prices are falling.
This could be a buying opportunity forCentral America.
The trade war may be good for Central America, in some ways
19
• China tariff on cars and parts (September 2019)
• Good for Nicaragua as an alternate source
• Central America may get agricultural products at low prices from the US
• China investment in CA may start to pay off
• Costa Rica (SJO)
Central America & the Caribbean
20
• The CAC region has a GDP of almost $00 billion (2017)
• 19th largest economic in the world
• Great potential for growth if:
• Formalize large sectors: Construction, Agriculture and Trade
• Education – formal and vocational
• Make it easy to start small businesses
• Build stronger connections with multinationals
Source: McKinsey & Co.
New port capacity in CA+DR
MOIN - new+.8 million TEUs
Central America = 25 portsPacific 11Caribbean 14
BLUEFIELDS - new+75,000 TEUs
CORTES+650,000
1.8 million TEUs
CAUCEDO+210,000
1.65 million TEUsv
QUETZAL - APMT+340,000 TEUs
Over 5.6 million TEU of new capacity planned, under development, or operational
RODMAN +1.550,000 TEUs
2 millionv
New COLON +1 million TEUs
Central America = 25 portsPacific 11Caribbean 14
BLUEFIELDS - 75,000 TEUs but multipurposeStart small – grow with the marketImproved logistics – lower costsDirect (truck) to Pacific centersProsperity to RAAS economyExports: African palm, meat, cocoa, seafood, fruits (bananas)Imports: Energy, consumer goods, general cargo, reefer, dry bulks
New Bluefields Port – Why it makes sense
Decisions when things are uncertain
Ports
Don’t be afraid to invest because
trade volumes will grow
Attract the private sector through PPPsfor money, credibility, and efficiency
Get on the LNG bandwagon if you are in a good location
What will happen?
Competing will become more difficult, but there can be “niche
winners” like Nicaragua
23
Conclusions – For us
24
• More pessimistic now• The US market will be weaker in
2020 – be cautious• Central America – pivot more to
Asia, but don’t forget the US because the US will eventually “get it right”
• Improve efficiency, and don’t build what is not needed
FINAL MESSAGE
25
THIS IS OUR HOME
LET’S SAVE IT
PALE BLUE DOT
Carl Sagan
26
February 14, 1990. from Voyager 1 at 6,000,000,000,kilometer