UK Wind Power Prospects Presentation to 2006 GIN Conference Dr David Toke, Senior Lecturer in...

12
UK Wind Power Prospects Presentation to 2006 GIN Conference Dr David Toke, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Policy, University of Birmingham: March 2006

Transcript of UK Wind Power Prospects Presentation to 2006 GIN Conference Dr David Toke, Senior Lecturer in...

Page 1: UK Wind Power Prospects Presentation to 2006 GIN Conference Dr David Toke, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Policy, University of Birmingham: March 2006.

UK Wind Power ProspectsPresentation to 2006 GIN

ConferenceDr David Toke, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Policy, University

of Birmingham: March 2006

Page 2: UK Wind Power Prospects Presentation to 2006 GIN Conference Dr David Toke, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Policy, University of Birmingham: March 2006.

Aalborg University   PlanEnergi   Universität Kassel   Birmingham University   Tallinn Technical University

Energi- og Miljødata   Institut für Solare Energieversorgungstechnik   EMD DeutschlandLABEiN Technological Centre in Bilbao   Warzaw Technical University

Page 3: UK Wind Power Prospects Presentation to 2006 GIN Conference Dr David Toke, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Policy, University of Birmingham: March 2006.

Onshore Wind Power Planning Myths

• Most schemes don’t get planning permission

• Increasing rate of planning refusals

• Small schemes are preferred by planning authorities

Page 4: UK Wind Power Prospects Presentation to 2006 GIN Conference Dr David Toke, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Policy, University of Birmingham: March 2006.

UK Onshore Wind Power Planning Decisions 1999-February 2006

Approved Refused Per Cent Approved

1999-end 2003

77 41 65

2004-Feb 2006

71 24 75

Total 1999-Feb 2006

148 65 70

Page 5: UK Wind Power Prospects Presentation to 2006 GIN Conference Dr David Toke, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Policy, University of Birmingham: March 2006.

Consented onshore wind as % of UK electricity

Projected consented onshore wind as % of UK electricity (based on current trends)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 20200.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Page 6: UK Wind Power Prospects Presentation to 2006 GIN Conference Dr David Toke, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Policy, University of Birmingham: March 2006.

Distribution of UK windpower (MW) Feb 2006

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

Eng N. Ire Scotland Wales Offshore

proposed

consented

operating

Page 7: UK Wind Power Prospects Presentation to 2006 GIN Conference Dr David Toke, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Policy, University of Birmingham: March 2006.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

operational consented in pipeline total

Projected % of UK electricity from existing or proposed windfarms (including estimated uptake of proposals)

offshore

onshore

Page 8: UK Wind Power Prospects Presentation to 2006 GIN Conference Dr David Toke, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Policy, University of Birmingham: March 2006.

Requirements for success

• Consistent planning framework

• Consistent financial support

• Grid subsidy for offshore windfarms

Page 9: UK Wind Power Prospects Presentation to 2006 GIN Conference Dr David Toke, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Policy, University of Birmingham: March 2006.

Offshore – caught between two funding stools

• Income from ‘secure’ 15 year contract:£50/MWh

• Income from ‘annual’ contract: £70/MWh

• END 2004 prices

Costs (£/MWh) of offshore and onshore windfarms at

different internal rates of return (IRR)

02040

6080

5% IRR 11%IRR

£/M

Wh offshore

onshore

Page 10: UK Wind Power Prospects Presentation to 2006 GIN Conference Dr David Toke, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Policy, University of Birmingham: March 2006.

UK Prices for small CHP compared to power exchange

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

A B C D E F G

time zone

p/K

wh

small chp

pow er exchange

Page 11: UK Wind Power Prospects Presentation to 2006 GIN Conference Dr David Toke, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Policy, University of Birmingham: March 2006.

EU Directive for fair prices for small generators?

Page 12: UK Wind Power Prospects Presentation to 2006 GIN Conference Dr David Toke, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Policy, University of Birmingham: March 2006.

Conclusion

• An RO target of 25 per cent by 2020 is feasible based on

• A) current wind power planning trends and subsidising offshore grid connection costs

• B) David Cameron being persuaded not to believe that the only good wind turbine is the one on his roof

• C) Reform of BETTA to help small generators


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