UK CCSC September 2007 UK CCSC September 2007 Marine Environmental Impacts Jerry Blackford, Nancy...
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Transcript of UK CCSC September 2007 UK CCSC September 2007 Marine Environmental Impacts Jerry Blackford, Nancy...
UK CCSC September 2007
UK CCSC
September 2007
Marine Environmental Impacts
Jerry Blackford, Nancy Jones, Steve Widdicombe, Dave Lowe, Carol Turley, Andy Rees and others…
ModellingModelling
Regional scale impacts of distinct CO2 additions in the North Sea.J C Blackford1,* & N Jones1
R Proctor2 & J Holt2
1 Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK.2 Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, 6 Brownlow Street, Liverpool, L3 5DA, UK.
AbstractA coupled hydrodynamic – ecosystem – carbonate system model applied to the North West European shelf seas is used to simulate the consequences of distinct CO2 additions such as those that could arise from a failure of geological sequestration schemes. The choice of leak scenario is guided by only a small number of available observations and requires several assumptions; hence the simulations reported on are engineered to be worse case scenarios. Only the most extreme scenarios are capable of producing perturbations that are likely to have environmental consequences beyond the immediate vicinity of a leak and these only in restricted areas. We show that, given the available evidence, the environmental impact of a sequestration leak is likely to be insignificant when compared to the expected impact from continued non-mitigated atmospheric CO2 emissions and the subsequent acidification of the marine system. We also conclude that far more research, including both leak simulations and assessment of ecological impacts is necessary to fully understand the impact of CO2 additions to the marine system.
Submitted to Marine Pollution bulletin, Under Review
Modelling
Scenario SiteInput
duration days
Depthm†
Input concentration
Daily input per metre squared
Daily input to model environment
Total input
mmol .m-3.d-1 Carbong.m-2.d-1
CO2
g.m-2.d-1
Carbontonnes.box-1.d-1
CO2
tonnes.box-1.d-1
Carbontonnes
CO2
tonnes
Seepage - low
North 365 7.7 0.50.046 0.168 2.25 8.23 823 3018
South 365 1.6 2.42
Seepage - high
North 365 7.7 50.04.6 16.8 225.0 823.0 82307 301791
South 365 1.6 242.0
Short term leak - low
North 1 138.0 50.0082.800 303.600 4057.2 14876.4 4057 14876
South 1 28.5 242.00
Short term leak - high
North 1 138.0 500.00828.000 3036.000 40572.0 148764.0 40572 148764
South 1 28.5 2424.00
Long term leak
North 365 138.0 50.0082.800 303.600 4057.2 14876.4 1480878 5429886
South 365 28.5 242.00
Scenarios
Modelling
Modelling leak scenarios: ok warning dangerOA
Modelling
Modelling leak scenarios: ok warning dangerOA
Timing of leak relative to tidal cycle could be crucial
North Site
South Site
Modelling: Predicted sensitivities
Pelagic: Functionally Fast
Benthic: Functionally Slow
Oxic
Redox
Anox
ReSeeding Mixing
Recovery is a big issue for the benthic system, not the pelagic
Sediment Biogeochemical response.
4 pH treatments: 8.0, 7.3, 6.5 and 5.6
2 sediment types: Muddy silt and fine sand
Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Norwegian Institute for Water Research
Water pump for circulation
Control box
pH & temp sensor
CO2 gasRegulator
LAN / internet connection
Natural seawater
Acidified seawater
Impact of pH on a range of species:
Psammechinus miliaris (Sea urchin, hard bottom)Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis (Sea urchin, hard bottom)Brissopsis lyrifera (Sea urchin, burrows in muddy sediment)Echinocardium cordatum (Sea urchin, burrows in sandy sediment)Ophiura ophiura (Brittlestar, sediment surface)Amphiura filiformis (Brittlestar, burrows in sediment)Nereis virens (Polychaete worm, burrows in sediment)Mytilus edulis (Bivalve)Callianassa subteranea (Burrowing shrimp) Upogebia deltuara (Burrowing shrimp)
Impact of pH :
Benthic diversityNutrient fluxPredator / prey interactions
Sand Mud
NI = -101.9 + 33.99pH
5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0
175
225
200
150
125
100
75
50F = 17.02; p = 0.001
NI = -149.4 + 28.86pH
5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0
175
225
200
150
125
100
75 F = 69.49; p = 0.000
2 weeks 20 weeksS = -13.35 + 5.626pH
F = 41.24; p = 0.000
25
35
30
20
155.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0
S = -32.80 + 6.814pH
15
25
20
10
5
05.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0
F = 31.10; p = 0.000
n.s.
J = 0.2297 + 0.071pH
5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.5 F = 14.48; p = 0.001
S = -0.66 + 4.427pH
40
50
45
35
25
20
30
5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0
F = 5.57; p = 0.030
S = -58.95 + 12.05pH
F = 61.27; p = 0.000
20
40
30
10
05.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0
NI = -289.5 + 71.62pH
5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0
200
400
300
100
0F = 20.50; p = 0.000
300
500
400
200
100
NI = -67.0 + 51.10pH
F = 3.75; p = 0.069
5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0
n.s.n.s.
2 weeks 20 weeks
pH and macrofaunal diversity
numberof
species
numberof
indvs
evenness
Biodiversity is impacted
7.5
2.0
3.0
2.5
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0
NO2 = -2.862 + 0.5081pH
-0.5 F = 15.81; p = 0.001
Seawater pH
5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0
60
100
80
40
20
0
SiO = -70.84 + 18.56pH
F = 7.41; p = 0.014
SiO = -61.94 + 16.31pH
60
100
80
40
20
05.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0
F = 8.85; p = 0.008
NH4 = 350.9 – 39.60pH
200
300
250
150
100
50
0
5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0
F = 5.13; p = 0.036
NH4 = 104.5 – 13.17pH
40
6050
302010
0-10-20
5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0
NO3 = 108.5 + 19.00pH
5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0
20
60
40
0
-20F = 35.90; p = 0.000
5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0
10
30
20
0
-10
-20
NO3 = -41.73 + 7.496pH
F = 18.77; p = 0.000
5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.00
NO2 = -1.573 + 0.278pHN
itri
teN
itra
teA
mm
on
ium
Sil
ica
te2 weeks 20 weeks
F = 11.75; p = 0.003
F = 53.83; p = 0.000
Sand
NH4 = 351.1 – 42.73pH
5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0
F = 30.72; p = 0.000
20
40
30
10
0
NH4 = 85.15 – 9.453pH
5.5 6.0 7.06.5 8.0
F = 18.72; p = 0.001
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.00
NO2 = -1.429 + 0.2496pH
5.5 6.0 7.06.5 7.5 8.0
F = 42.65; p = 0.000
ns
80
160
120
40
0
ns ns
2 weeks 20 weeksMud
ns ns
Seawater pH
pH and nutrient flux
Benthic function is affected
Impact on Benthic Physiology
Brissopsis lyrifera
Echinocardium cordatum
Ophiura ophiura
Amphiura filiformis
Muddy SedimentsSurface Dwellers
Sandy SedimentsDeeper Dwellers
Impacts on Cellular Processes in Sediment Dwelling Echinoderms.
Impact on Lysosomes
Lysosomal Neutral Red Retention
Damaged lysosomes exhibit pathological responses including enlargement and leakage – the greater the damage the faster the response
Damaged lysosomes exhibit pathological responses including enlargement and leakage – the greater the damage the faster the response
HealthyDamaged
Brissopsis Coelomocyte NRR
Dye Retention Time
Control
pH76
pH72
pH68
0 20 40 60 80 100
p 0.03
pH 7.6
pH 7.2
pH 6.8
Brissopsis Coelomocyte NRR
Dye Retention Time
Control
pH76
pH72
pH68
0 20 40 60 80 100
p 0.03
pH 7.6
pH 7.2
pH 6.8
Echinocardium Coelomocyte NRR
Retention Time
Control
pH76
pH72
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
p 0.000
Echinocardium
pH 7.6
pH 7.2
Echinocardium Coelomocyte NRR
Retention Time
Control
pH76
pH72
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
p 0.000
Echinocardium
pH 7.6
pH 7.2
Echinocardium
Impact on Gut PhysiologyControl pH 8
Brissopsis
pH 6.8pH 7.2pH 7.6
Ophiura
Impact on reproductive organsControl pH 7.6
pH 6.8pH 7.2
Experiments: example
regrowth
Regrowth Length
0
10
20
30
8 7.7 7.3 6.5
pH treatmentle
ngth
(m
m)
Arm Calcium Content
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
8 7.7 7.3 6.5pH treatment
% c
alci
um
established arm
regrowth
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
8 7.7 7.3 6.5
pH
um
ol/o
xyg
en
/da
y
Arm regeneration inAmphiura filiformisat low pH Hannah Wood
35 day exposure
stress response
Nutritional quality of regenerated arms ?
Long term, slow onset exposures
Policy & CommunicationsCarol: Presentation on CCS and OA to Jonathon Shaw (Minister for Marine, Landscape and Rural Affairs and Minister for the South East);Deborah Wells (Senior Private Secretary to Jonathon Shaw); Trevor Hutchings (Deputy Director, Fishing Industry Management Division - Defra), Diana Linskey (Deputy Director Marine Environment Division - Defra); Gail Clarke (Fishing Industry Management Division - Defra); Linda Gilroy (MP, Plymouth) during visit to PML - July 07 Steve: “Predicting the impact of seawater acidification on the marine environment” 2nd Meeting of the Scientific Group Intercessional Technical Working Group on CO2 Sequestration within the framework of the Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping Wastes and Other Matter, 1972, Oslo, Norway 16th-20th April 2007
Mel, Jerry, Steve: “Ocean Acidification and Carbon Capture and Storage” Defra Policy ‘Snapshot’ presentation, London 21st May 2007.
Steve: “Predicting the impact of leakage on the North Sea ecosystem” Carbon Capture and Storage Association, Environmental Impact Assessment Workshop, London 23rd August 2007.
Future
Carol: Planned outreach activities in next 3 months: presentations at Royal Soc on CCS organised by institutes of Biology Chemistry and Physics and at a workshop in Bergen
Jerry: Carbon Transportation and Storage, London, 4th December. www.iom3.org.events/carbon
Future Plans
Talking with BP re sensible leakage scenarios. Fine scale modelling, 1.8 km grid and ~50m
Experiment: Impact of acidification on the uptake of metals by marine organismsIn October 2007 an experiment will be conducted that addresses the following hypothesis:
H0: Seawater acidification will not affect the bioaccumulation of metals in 4 different marine organisms.
We will look at 2 elevated pH treatments plus controls. We will add organisms from 4 different taxa (annelid, mollusc, crustacean and echinoderm) to sediment from the Fal estuary which is naturally contaminated by metals. After a period of exposure we will analyse the organisms for metal bioaccumulation. Metals to be assessed are potentially:
Ag, As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn.