UFE 2009 ANALYSIS
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Transcript of UFE 2009 ANALYSIS
UFE 2009 Analysis1
UFE 2009 ANALYSIS
Compiled by Load Forecasting & Analysisfor the PWG Meeting of
August 25, 2010
UFE 2009 Analysis2
UFE Basics
Sources of UFE include:■ Generation Measurement Errors■ Load - Missing/Erroneous Usage Data
- Model Error - Load Profile ID Assignment Error - Theft
■ Losses - Model Error - Loss Code Assignment Error
Negative UFE indicates load/losses are overestimated
UFE (unaccounted for energy) is computed as follows:UFE = Generation – (Load + Losses)
UFE 2009 Analysis3
UFE Basics
Net Generation for Settlement Interval
Interval Data Energy Usage
Profiled Energy Usage Non-Interval Data
Non-Metered Accounts
Losses:Transmission &
Distribution
UFEGAP - - - - - - >
Net GenerationCompared toLoad Buildup
UFE 2009 Analysis4
SETTLEMENT SCHEDULE
UFE is computed for each 15-minute interval of a settlement run.
Initial Settlement (10 days after the trade day)
Final Settlement(59 days after the trade day)
True-up and Resettlement (6 months to up to several years after the trade day)
The latest resettlement in each interval is used in the analysis for Initial, Final and True-Up.
InitialFinalTrue-Up
Settlement
(if necessary)Resettlement
UFE 2009 Analysis5
LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK Day 2009Initial Settlement
SR01
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Per
cen
t
MW
H
Interval
July 13, 2009 - Initial Settlement
ERCOT Load
Percent UFE
UFE
Daily avg percent UFE = 1.14
UFE 2009 Analysis6SR02
LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK Day 2009Final Settlement
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Per
cen
t
MW
H
Interval
July 13, 2009 - Final Settlement
UFE
Daily avg percent UFE = 1.13
ERCOT Load
Percent UFE
UFE 2009 Analysis7SR03
LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK Day 2009True Up Settlement
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Per
cen
t
MW
H
Interval
July 13, 2009 - True Up Settlement
UFE
ERCOT Load
Percent UFE
Daily avg percent UFE = 1.11
UFE 2009 Analysis8
UFE MWh by Month in 2009Initial Settlement
SR04
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MW
h
Net UFE ABS UFE
ABS Annual UFE = 5,423,623 MWh
Net Annual UFE = 1,163,502
UFE 2009 Analysis9
UFE Cost by Month in 2009 Initial Settlement
SR05
-15,000,000
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Do
lla
rs
UFE Cost ABS UFE CostUFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)
ABS Annual UFE Cost = $187,694,834Net Annual UFE Cost = $47,804,618
UFE 2009 Analysis10
UFE MWh by Month in 2009Final Settlement
SR06
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MW
h
Net UFE ABS UFE
Net Annual UFE = 1,387,483
ABS Annual UFE = 4,300,430 MWh
UFE 2009 Analysis11
UFE Cost by Month in 2009 Final Settlement
SR07
-15,000,000
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Do
lla
rs
UFE Cost ABS UFE CostUFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)
ABS Annual UFE Cost = $149,139,315
Net Annual UFE Cost = $46,413,546
UFE 2009 Analysis12
UFE MWh by Month in 2009 True-Up Settlement
SR09
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MW
h
Net UFE ABS UFE
Net Annual UFE = 1,351,187
ABS Annual UFE = 4,290,717 MWh
UFE 2009 Analysis13
UFE Cost by Month in 2009 True-Up Settlement
SR09
-15,000,000
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Do
llar
s
UFE Cost ABS UFE CostUFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)
ABS Annual UFE Cost = $149,282,758
Net Annual UFE Cost = $44,857,873
UFE 2009 Analysis14
ABS UFE MWh by Month in 2009 Initial, Final and True Up Settlements
SR09a
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MW
h
Initial Final True Up
UFE 2009 Analysis15
ABS UFE Cost by Month in 2009 Initial, Final and True-Up Settlements
SR09b
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Do
lla
rs
Initial Final True UpUFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)
UFE 2009 Analysis16
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2009
SR10
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002 31,980 30,107 19,209 55,703 7,437
2003 32,489 30,824 19,282 59,992 7,546
2004 32,909 31,162 20,231 58,528 7,448
2005 34,155 31,901 20,482 60,272 8,452
2006 34,884 32,707 21,223 62,430 8,508
2007 35,008 33,324 21,701 62,250 7,470
2008 35,304 33,423 19,574 62,266 8,091
2009 35,192 33,070 21,343 63,518 8,694
2002 32,002 30,116 19,211 56,233 7,467
2003 32,517 30,850 19,292 59,996 7,562
2004 32,917 31,166 20,231 58,531 7,445
2005 34,161 31,911 20,486 60,270 8,454
2006 34,899 32,716 21,225 62,434 8,502
2007 35,016 33,332 21,715 62,265 7,471
2008 35,313 33,431 19,579 62,269 8,091
2009 35,199 33,079 21,351 63,534 8,695
2002 32,052 30,142 19,266 56,248 7,479
2003 32,532 30,865 19,310 60,095 7,571
2004 32,917 31,166 20,231 58,531 7,445
2005 34,162 31,912 20,490 60,274 8,453
2006 34,902 32,722 21,225 62,434 8,502
2007 35,016 33,330 21,712 62,265 7,471
2008 35,314 33,433 19,579 62,269 8,091
2009 35,200 33,079 21,351 63,534 8,696
INITIAL
FINAL
TRUE-UP
ERCOT LOAD (MW)
ERCOT LOAD (MW)
ERCOT LOAD (MW)
UFE 2009 Analysis17
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2009
SR11a
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002 -2,176 -2,228 -6,969 5,673 1,572
2003 -314 -400 -3,906 3,798 1,003
2004 67 -9 -4,558 4,559 792
2005 75 45 -5,537 3,538 881
2006 110 69 -2,957 4,543 877
2007 338 305 -4,000 6,666 900
2008 101 120 -10,954 4,511 1,375
2009 133 145 -3,603 5,589 782
2002 -1,624 -1,598 -5,954 3,427 1,147
2003 -6 -119 -3,172 3,728 891
2004 130 56 -3,929 4,302 721
2005 118 77 -4,199 3,163 750
2006 257 220 -2,288 3,351 707
2007 337 305 -3,068 3,972 644
2008 189 164 -4,593 4,479 901
2009 158 147 -2,802 5,103 621
2002 -456 -553 -3,371 3,803 898
2003 192 72 -2,886 4,065 857
2004 153 83 -3,879 4,299 719
2005 124 82 -4,155 3,190 750
2006 263 225 -2,296 3,332 706
2007 333 300 -3,076 3,975 643
2008 179 161 -4,853 4,513 919
2009 154 142 -2,797 5,128 621
UFE (MW)
UFE (MW)
INITIAL
FINAL
TRUE-UP
UFE (MW)
UFE 2009 Analysis18
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2009
SR11b
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002 2,321 2,257 0 6,969 1,348
2003 857 759 0 3,906 607
2004 606 472 0 4,559 515
2005 649 491 0 5,537 600
2006 673 528 0 4,543 574
2007 723 562 0 6,666 633
2008 918 644 0 10,954 1,029
2009 619 513 0 5,589 496
2002 1,696 1,601 0 5,954 1,038
2003 707 599 0 3,728 542
2004 550 414 0 4,302 484
2005 567 426 0 4,199 505
2006 574 449 0 3,351 486
2007 560 445 0 3,972 463
2008 673 491 0 4,593 628
2009 491 389 0 5,103 411
2002 838 771 0 3,803 559
2003 672 528 0 4,065 565
2004 551 413 0 4,299 487
2005 568 427 0 4,155 505
2006 574 450 0 3,332 488
2007 558 443 0 3,975 462
2008 683 497 0 4,853 640
2009 490 388 0 5,128 412
|UFE| (MW)
|UFE| (MW)
TRUE-UP
FINAL
|UFE| (MW)
INITIAL
UFE 2009 Analysis19
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2009
SR12a
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002 -7.0 -7.1 -24.1 16.8 5.1
2003 -1.3 -1.3 -12.7 9.4 3.2
2004 0.1 0.0 -11.5 13.9 2.4
2005 0.2 0.1 -18.9 10.3 2.6
2006 0.2 0.2 -8.8 11.1 2.5
2007 0.9 0.9 -14.6 14.4 2.5
2008 0.1 0.3 -36.9 11.8 4.3
2009 0.3 0.4 -12.4 15.4 2.3
2002 -5.3 -5.2 -20.6 9.5 3.8
2003 -0.2 -0.4 -10.3 9.4 2.7
2004 0.3 0.2 -9.9 13.1 2.1
2005 0.3 0.2 -14.7 9.3 2.2
2006 0.7 0.7 -7.0 9.2 2.0
2007 0.9 0.9 -11.2 13.2 1.8
2008 0.5 0.5 -11.1 10.2 2.5
2009 0.4 0.4 -8.0 14.0 1.8
2002 -1.7 -1.8 -14.8 10.5 2.9
2003 0.4 0.2 -7.9 9.9 2.5
2004 0.4 0.3 -9.8 13.1 2.1
2005 0.3 0.3 -14.6 9.2 2.2
2006 0.7 0.7 -7.0 9.1 2.0
2007 0.9 0.9 -11.3 13.2 1.8
2008 0.4 0.5 -11.8 10.1 2.6
2009 0.4 0.4 -7.9 14.1 1.8
INITIAL
FINAL
TRUE-UP
UFE as PERCENT of LOAD
UFE as PERCENT of LOAD
UFE as PERCENT of LOAD
UFE 2009 Analysis20
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2009
SR12b
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002 7.5 7.2 0.0 24.1 4.4
2003 2.8 2.4 0.0 12.7 2.0
2004 1.8 1.5 0.0 13.9 1.5
2005 1.9 1.5 0.0 18.9 1.7
2006 1.9 1.6 0.0 11.1 1.6
2007 2.1 1.7 0.0 14.6 1.7
2008 2.7 1.9 0.0 36.9 3.4
2009 1.8 1.5 0.0 15.4 1.4
2002 5.6 5.2 0.0 20.6 3.5
2003 2.2 1.9 0.0 10.3 1.6
2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1 1.4
2005 1.7 1.3 0.0 14.7 1.4
2006 1.6 1.4 0.0 9.2 1.3
2007 1.6 1.3 0.0 13.2 1.3
2008 1.9 1.4 0.0 11.1 1.7
2009 1.4 1.1 0.0 14.0 1.2
2002 2.7 2.5 0.0 14.8 1.9
2003 2.0 1.7 0.0 9.9 1.5
2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1 1.4
2005 1.7 1.3 0.0 14.6 1.4
2006 1.6 1.4 0.0 9.1 1.3
2007 1.6 1.3 0.0 13.2 1.3
2008 2.0 1.4 0.0 11.8 1.8
2009 1.4 1.1 0.0 14.1 1.2
INITIAL
FINAL
TRUE-UP
|UFE as PERCENT of Load|
|UFE as PERCENT of Load|
|UFE as PERCENT of Load|
UFE 2009 Analysis21
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2009
SR13a
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002
2003 356 -1,785 -88,773 511,652 17,737
2004 2,279 -57 -76,418 200,563 11,501
2005 4,224 386 -183,607 730,583 24,830
2006 4,131 596 -164,012 524,472 19,452
2007 6,522 3,033 -148,380 971,848 26,131
2008 6,266 1,120 -414,016 2,284,016 59,287
2009 1,364 752 -483,379 948,809 17,139
2002 -2,067 -1,841 -23,686 580,173 21,632
2003 2,663 -635 -132,426 824,621 22,931
2004 2,694 442 -92,510 164,969 10,532
2005 4,738 722 -220,201 596,968 21,409
2006 5,329 1,983 -118,425 452,539 16,076
2007 5,993 3,111 -115,711 649,964 20,154
2008 4,051 1,577 -1,624,294 1,687,088 40,720
2009 1,325 789 -411,979 899,806 14,822
2002 -1,777 -2,287 -121,635 933,143 13,866
2003 4,993 496 -86,677 904,970 24,964
2004 2,923 632 -92,408 168,849 10,577
2005 4,970 776 -212,732 603,737 21,679
2006 5,379 2,020 -116,067 455,747 16,094
2007 5,939 3,062 -115,201 645,980 20,101
2008 3,908 1,544 -1,748,888 1,692,783 42,155
2009 1,280 758 -422,098 892,565 15,035
INITIAL
FINAL
TRUE-UP
Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.
UFE Cost ($)
UFE Cost ($)
UFE Cost ($)
UFE 2009 Analysis22
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2009
SR13b
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002
2003 8,804 5,560 0 511,652 15,401
2004 6,887 4,055 0 200,563 9,489
2005 12,447 6,177 0 730,583 21,895
2006 9,886 5,543 0 524,472 17,254
2007 10,847 6,229 0 971,848 24,651
2008 15,831 7,876 0 2,284,016 57,477
2009 5,357 2,976 0 948,809 16,338
2002 5,664 3,579 0 580,173 20,978
2003 8,596 4,699 0 824,621 21,425
2004 6,297 3,630 0 164,969 8,862
2005 10,923 5,345 0 596,968 19,012
2006 8,615 4,670 0 452,539 14,582
2007 8,517 4,977 0 649,964 19,224
2008 11,799 6,100 0 1,687,088 39,183
2009 4,256 2,253 0 899,806 14,259
2002 5,251 3,780 0 933,143 12,955
2003 8,695 4,137 0 904,970 23,928
2004 6,329 3,605 0 168,849 8,964
2005 11,016 5,338 0 603,737 19,321
2006 8,620 4,688 0 455,747 14,617
2007 8,487 4,970 0 645,980 19,164
2008 11,949 6,160 0 1,748,888 40,615
2009 4,260 2,246 0 892,565 14,475
TRUE-UP
Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.
INITIAL
FINAL
|UFE Cost| ($)
|UFE Cost| ($)
|UFE Cost| ($)
UFE 2009 Analysis23
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2009
SR14a
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002
2003 -1.0 -1.0 -11.4 9.4 3.1
2004 0.1 0.0 -11.5 13.9 2.4
2005 0.2 0.1 -18.9 10.3 2.6
2006 0.2 0.2 -8.8 11.1 2.5
2007 0.9 0.9 -14.6 14.4 2.5
2008 0.2 0.3 -36.1 11.8 4.2
2009 0.3 0.4 -12.4 15.4 2.3
2002 -2.2 -2.1 -9.4 3.0 2.6
2003 -0.1 -0.3 -8.7 9.4 2.6
2004 0.3 0.2 -9.9 13.1 2.1
2005 0.3 0.2 -14.7 9.3 2.2
2006 0.7 0.7 -7.0 9.2 2.0
2007 0.9 0.9 -11.2 13.2 1.8
2008 0.5 0.5 -11.1 10.2 2.5
2009 0.4 0.4 -8.0 14.0 1.8
2002 -1.6 -1.8 -14.8 10.5 2.9
2003 0.4 0.2 -7.9 9.5 2.5
2004 0.4 0.3 -9.8 13.1 2.1
2005 0.3 0.3 -14.6 9.2 2.2
2006 0.7 0.7 -7.0 9.1 2.0
2007 0.9 0.9 -11.3 13.2 1.8
2008 0.4 0.5 -11.8 10.1 2.6
2009 0.4 0.4 -7.9 14.1 1.8
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
INITIAL
FINAL
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
TRUE-UP
Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.
UFE 2009 Analysis24
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2009
SR14b
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX STD DEV
2002
2003 2.6 2.3 0.0 11.4 1.9
2004 1.8 1.5 0.0 13.9 1.5
2005 1.9 1.5 0.0 18.9 1.7
2006 1.9 1.6 0.0 11.1 1.6
2007 2.1 1.7 0.0 14.6 1.7
2008 2.7 1.8 0.0 36.1 3.2
2009 1.8 1.5 0.0 15.4 1.4
2002 2.7 2.2 0.0 9.4 2.1
2003 2.1 1.9 0.0 9.4 1.5
2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1 1.4
2005 1.7 1.3 0.0 14.7 1.4
2006 1.6 1.4 0.0 9.2 1.3
2007 1.6 1.3 0.0 13.2 1.3
2008 1.9 1.4 0.0 11.1 1.7
2009 1.4 1.1 0.0 14.0 1.2
2002 2.7 2.5 0.0 14.8 1.9
2003 2.0 1.7 0.0 9.5 1.5
2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1 1.4
2005 1.7 1.3 0.0 14.6 1.4
2006 1.6 1.4 0.0 9.1 1.3
2007 1.6 1.3 0.0 13.2 1.3
2008 2.0 1.4 0.0 11.8 1.7
2009 1.4 1.1 0.0 14.1 1.2
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
TRUE-UP
Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.
INITIAL
FINAL
UFE 2009 Analysis25UFD01
Distribution of UFE MW Initial, Final, and True Up - 2009
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0P
erce
nt
of
Inte
rval
s w
ith
UF
E V
alu
es
UFE (MW)
Initial Final True Up
UFE 2009 Analysis26
Distribution of UFE as Percent of Load - 2009
UFD03
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
-6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Dis
trib
uti
on
of
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
Lo
ad
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load
Initial Final True-Up
UFE 2009 Analysis27
COMPARISON OF 2007 TO 2009
To provide a frame of reference, some 2009 values are compared to 2007 values. The 2008 values were not used in these comparisons due to major impacts on UFE related to Hurricane Ike.
UFE 2009 Analysis
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
Pe
rce
nt o
f In
terv
als
wit
h U
FE
Va
lue
s
UFE (MW)
UFE 2007 UFE 2009Initial Settlement
28
Distribution of UFE MW 2007 vs. 2009 - Initial Settlement
UFD04
UFE 2009 Analysis
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
Pe
rce
nt o
f In
terv
als
wit
h U
FE
Va
lue
s
UFE (MW)
UFE 2007 UFE 2009Final Settlement
29
Distribution of UFE MW 2007 vs. 2009 - Final Settlement
UFD05
UFE 2009 Analysis
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
Pe
rce
nt o
f In
terv
als
wit
h U
FE
Va
lue
s
UFE (MW)
UFE 2007 UFE 2009True Up Settlement
30
Distribution of UFE MW 2007 vs. 2009 – True Up Settlement
UFD06
UFE 2009 Analysis
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
-6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Dis
trib
uti
on
of
UF
E P
erc
en
t o
f L
oa
d
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load
UFE 2007 UFE 2009Initial Settlement
31
Distribution of UFE Percent of ERCOT Load2007 vs 2009 – Initial Settlement
UFD07
UFE 2009 Analysis
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
-5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Dis
trib
uti
on
of
UF
E P
erc
en
t o
f L
oa
d
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load
UFE 2007 UFE 2009Final Settlement
32
Distribution of UFE Percent of ERCOT Load2007 vs 2009 – Final Settlement
UFD09
UFE 2009 Analysis
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
-5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Dis
trib
uti
on
of
UF
E P
erc
en
t o
f L
oa
d
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load
UFE 2007 UFE 2009True Up Settlement
33
Distribution of UFE Percent of ERCOT Load2007 vs 2009 – True Up Settlement
UFD09
UFE 2009 Analysis34
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2009Initial Settlement plus95% Confidence Intervals
CIP01
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
Day of the WeekMedian 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun TueMon Wed Thur Fri Sat
UFE 2009 Analysis35CIP02
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2009Final Settlement plus95% Confidence Intervals
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
Day of the Week
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun TueMon Wed Thur Fri Sat
UFE 2009 Analysis36CIP03
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2009True-Up Settlement plus95% Confidence Intervals
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
Day of the Week
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun TueMon Wed Thur Fri Sat
UFE 2009 Analysis37CIP04
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2009Comparison of Medians for Initial & Final
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
UF
E P
erce
nt o
f E
RC
OT
Lo
ad
Day of the Week
Initial Final
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Note: True Up is omitted since the results for Final and True Up are similar.
UFE 2009 Analysis38
Seasonal Comparison - Spring 2009UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
SEA01
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
-4.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
ER
CO
T L
oad
(M
W)
UF
E P
erc
en
t o
f E
RC
OT
Lo
ad
Day of the Week
Initial Final Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Note: True Up is omitted since the results for Final and True Up are similar.
UFE 2009 Analysis39
Seasonal Comparison - Summer 2009UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
SEA02
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
-4.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
ER
CO
T L
oad
(M
W)
UF
E P
erce
nt o
f E
RC
OT
Lo
ad
Day of the Week
Initial Final Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Note: True Up is omitted since the results for Final and True Up are similar.
UFE 2009 Analysis40
Seasonal Comparison - Fall 2009UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
SEA03
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
-4.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
ER
CO
T L
oad
(M
W)
UF
E P
erce
nt o
f E
RC
OT
Lo
ad
Day of the Week
Initial Final Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Note: True Up is omitted since the results for Final and True Up are similar.
UFE 2009 Analysis41
Seasonal Comparison - Winter 2009UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
SEA04
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
-4.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
ER
CO
T L
oad
(M
W)
UF
E P
erc
en
t o
f E
RC
OT
Lo
ad
Day of the Week
Initial Final Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Note: True Up is omitted since the results for Final and True Up are similar.
UFE 2009 Analysis42SEA05
Seasonal Comparison of Medians – Initial SettlementUFE Percent of ERCOT Load - 2009
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
Lo
ad
Day of the Week
Spring Summer Fall Winter
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UFE 2009 Analysis43SEA06
Seasonal Comparison of Medians – Final SettlementUFE Percent of ERCOT Load - 2009
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
Lo
ad
Day of the Week
Spring Summer Fall Winter
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UFE 2009 Analysis44SEA07
Seasonal Comparison of Medians – True UpUFE Percent of ERCOT Load - 2009
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
Lo
ad
Day of the Week
Spring Summer Fall Winter
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UFE 2009 Analysis45
Sum of Dollars from Positive UFEacross the Week in 2009
UCT02
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Do
llars
Day of the Week
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UFE 2009 Analysis46
Sum of Dollars from Negative UFEacross the Week in 2009
UCT03
-600,000
-500,000
-400,000
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UFE 2009 Analysis47UCT04
Sum of Dollars from Absolute Value of UFE across the Week in 2009
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Do
llar
s
Day of the Week
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UFE 2009 Analysis48
Sum of Dollars from Net UFE across the Week in 2009
UCT05
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UFE 2009 Analysis49UCT06
SUM of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2009Positive and Negative UFE
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - September 30
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: October 1 - November 30
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: December 1 - February 28
UFE 2009 Analysis50
SUM of UFE Dollars – Spring 2009Positive and Negative UFE
UCT07
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
UFE 2009 Analysis51UCT08
SUM of UFE Dollars – Summer 2009Positive and Negative UFE
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - September 30
UFE 2009 Analysis52UCT09
SUM of UFE Dollars – Fall 2009Positive and Negative UFE
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: October 1 - November 30
UFE 2009 Analysis53UCT10
SUM of UFE Dollars – Winter 2009Positive and Negative UFE
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: December 1 - February 28
UFE 2009 Analysis54UCT11
SUM of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2009Absolute Value and Net UFE
-500,000
-250,000
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
-500,000
-250,000
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
Do
llar
s
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
-500,000
-250,000
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
-500,000
-250,000
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
UFE 2009 Analysis55
SUM of UFE Dollars – Spring 2009Absolute Value and Net UFE
UCT12
-500,000
-250,000
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
UFE 2009 Analysis56UCT13
SUM of UFE Dollars – Summer 2009Absolute Value and Net UFE
-500,000
-250,000
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
Do
llar
s
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
UFE 2009 Analysis57UCT14
SUM of UFE Dollars – Fall 2009Absolute Value and Net UFE
-500,000
-250,000
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
UFE 2009 Analysis58UCT15
SUM of UFE Dollars – Winter 2009 Absolute Value and Net UFE
-500,000
-250,000
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
UFE 2009 Analysis59
Mean of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2009Positive and Negative UFE
UCT16
-50,000
-25,000
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
-50,000
-25,000
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
-50,000
-25,000
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
-50,000
-25,000
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
UFE 2009 Analysis60UCT17
Mean of UFE Dollars – Spring 2009Positive and Negative UFE
-50,000
-25,000
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
UFE 2009 Analysis61UCT18
Mean of UFE Dollars – Summer 2009Positive and Negative UFE
-50,000
-25,000
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
UFE 2009 Analysis62UCT19
Mean of UFE Dollars – Fall 2009Positive and Negative UFE
-50,000
-25,000
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
UFE 2009 Analysis63UCT20
Mean of UFE Dollars – Winter 2009Positive and Negative UFE
-50,000
-25,000
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
UFE 2009 Analysis64
Mean of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2009 Absolute Value and Net UFE
UCT21
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Do
llar
s
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
UFE 2009 Analysis65UCT22
Mean of UFE Dollars – Spring 2009Absolute Value and Net UFE
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Do
llar
s
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
UFE 2009 Analysis66UCT23
Mean of UFE Dollars – Summer 2009Absolute Value and Net UFE
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
UFE 2009 Analysis67UCT24
Mean of UFE Dollars – Fall 2009 Absolute Value and Net UFE
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
UFE 2009 Analysis68UCT25
Mean of UFE Dollars – Winter 2009Absolute Value and Net UFE
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Do
lla
rs
Day of the Week
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
UFE 2009 Analysis69
2009 values were compared to 2007 values. The 2008 values were not used due to Hurricane Ike related impacts on UFE.
No extreme weather events occurred in 2009.
Advanced meters were first used in settlements beginning late 2009.
Mean and median UFE (MW) and UFE as Percent of Load declined from 2007 values.
Mean and median UFE Cost ($) and UFE Cost as Percent of Total Cost declined from 2007 values.
Standard deviation values are trending lower.
UFE 2009 Analysis Observations