UFE 2005 Analysis 1 UFE 2005 ANALYSIS Compiled by Load Profiling ERCOT Energy Analysis &...
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Transcript of UFE 2005 Analysis 1 UFE 2005 ANALYSIS Compiled by Load Profiling ERCOT Energy Analysis &...
1 UFE 2005 Analysis
UFE 2005 ANALYSIS
Compiled by Load ProfilingERCOT Energy Analysis & Aggregation
2 UFE 2005 Analysis
UFE Basics
Sources of UFE include:■ Generation Measurement Errors■ Load - Missing/Erroneous Usage Data
- Model Error - Load Profile ID Assignment Error
■ Losses - Model Error - Loss Code Assignment Error
Negative UFE indicates load/losses are overestimated
UFE (unaccounted for energy) is computed as follows:UFE = Generation – (Load + Losses)
3 UFE 2005 Analysis
UFE Basics
Net Generation for Settlement Interval
Interval Data Energy Usage
Profiled Energy Usage Non-Interval Data
Non-Metered Accounts
Losses:Transmission &
Distribution
UFEGAP - - - - - - >
Net GenerationCompared toLoad Buildup
4 UFE 2005 Analysis
DATA VERIFICATION IN THE SETTLEMENT PROCESS
UFE is computed for each 15-minute interval of a settlement run.
Initial
Final
Settlement
True-Up
Initial Settlement(posted on day 10 after the operating day)
Final Settlement(posted on day 60 after the operating day)
True-up Settlement (posted 6 months after operating day)
Resettlement statement (posted as needed)
5 UFE 2005 Analysis
Load Weighted Calculation of MCPE
Market Clearing Price for Energy (MCPE) is the highest price by Congestion Zone for a Settlement Interval for Balancing Energy deployed during the Settlement Interval.
In 2005 there were 5 congestion zones – E05, H05, N05, S05 and W05.
The load weighted MCPE is calculated for each 15 min. interval using the LCMZone cuts as follows:
MCPE_LWTD = ((LCMZone_E05_Mwh * MCPEL_E05) + (LCMZone_H05_Mwh * MCPEL_H05) +
(LCMZone_N05_Mwh * MCPEL_N05) + (LCMZone_S05_Mwh * MCPEL_S05) +
(LCMZone_W05_Mwh * MCPEL_W05)) / (LCMZone_E05_Mwh + LCMZone_H05_Mwh +
LCMZone_N05_Mwh + LCMZone_S05_Mwh + LCMZone_W05_Mwh)
6 UFE 2005 Analysis
LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK 2005Initial Settlement
SR01
ERCOT Load and UFE 2005 Peak Day - August 23, 2005Initial Settlement
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Interval
MW
H
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Per
cen
t
ERCOT Load
Percent UFE
UFE
7 UFE 2005 Analysis
LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK 2005Final Settlement
SR02
ERCOT Load and UFE 2005 Peak Day - August 23, 2005Final Settlement
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Interval
MW
H
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Per
cen
t
ERCOT Load
Percent UFE
UFE
8 UFE 2005 Analysis
LOAD AND UFE – ERCOT PEAK 2005True Up Settlement
SR03
ERCOT Load and UFE 2005 Peak Day - August 23, 2005True Up Settlement
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Interval
MW
H
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Per
cen
t
ERCOT Load
Percent UFE
UFE
9 UFE 2005 Analysis
UFE MWh by Month in 2005 Initial Settlement
SR04
UFE MWh by Month - Initial Settlement
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
MW
h
UFE ABS UFE
Annual UFE = 659,294 MWhABS Annual UFE = 5,681,893 MWh
10 UFE 2005 Analysis
UFE Cost by Month in 2005 Initial Settlement
SR05
UFE Cost by Month - Initial Settlement
-20,000,000
-10,000,000
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Do
lla
rs
UFE Cost ABS UFE Cost
Annual UFE Cost = $147,994,203ABS Annual UFE Cost = $436,150,285
UFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)
11 UFE 2005 Analysis
UFE MWh by Month in 2005Final Settlement
SR06
UFE MWh by Month - Final Settlement
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
MW
h
UFE ABS UFE
Annual UFE = 1,035,008 MWhABS Annual UFE = 4,965,437 MWh
12 UFE 2005 Analysis
UFE Cost by Month in 2005 Final Settlement
SR07
UFE Cost by Month - Final Settlement
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Do
lla
rs
UFE Cost ABS UFE Cost
Annual UFE Cost = $166,016,452ABS Annual UFE Cost = $382,752,259
UFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)
13 UFE 2005 Analysis
UFE MWh by Month in 2005 True-Up Settlement
SR08
UFE MWh by Month - True-Up Settlement
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
MW
h
UFE ABS UFE
Annual UFE = 1,082,561 MWhABS Annual UFE = 4,979,401 MWh
14 UFE 2005 Analysis
UFE Cost by Month in 2005 True-UP Settlement
SR09
UFE Cost by Month - True-Up Settlement
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Do
llar
s
UFE Cost ABS UFE Cost
Annual UFE Cost = $174,154,088ABS Annual UFE Cost = $386,005,370
UFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)
15 UFE 2005 Analysis
ABS UFE Mwh by Month in 2005 Initial, Final and True Up Settlements
SR09a
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
MW
h
Initial Final True Up
ABS UFE Mwh by Month - Initial, Final and True Up Settlements
16 UFE 2005 Analysis
UFE Cost by Month in 2005 Initial, Final and True-UP Settlements
SR09b
UFE Cost by Month - Initial, Final and True Up Settlements
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Do
lla
rs
Initial Final True UpUFE Cost = Σ(MCPE x UFE_Mwh)
17 UFE 2005 Analysis
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2005
SR10
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
2002 31,980 30,107 19,209 55,703
2003 32,489 30,824 19,282 59,992
2004 32,909 31,162 20,231 58,528
2005 34,155 31,901 20,482 60,272
2002 32,002 30,116 19,211 56,233
2003 32,517 30,850 19,292 59,996
2004 32,917 31,166 20,231 58,531
2005 34,161 31,911 20,486 60,270
2002 32,052 30,142 19,266 56,248
2003 32,532 30,865 19,310 60,095
2004 32,917 31,166 20,231 58,531
2005 34,162 31,912 20,490 60,274
ERCOT LOAD (MW)
TRUE-UP
INITIAL
FINAL
ERCOT LOAD (MW)
ERCOT LOAD (MW)
18 UFE 2005 Analysis
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2005
SR11a
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
2002 -2,176 -2,228 -6,969 5,673
2003 -314 -400 -3,906 3,798
2004 67 -9 -4,558 4,559
2005 75 45 -5,537 3,538
2002 -1,593 -1,575 -5,954 3,427
2003 -14 -126 -3,172 3,728
2004 130 56 -3,929 4,302
2005 118 77 -4,199 3,163
2002 -461 -556 -3,371 3,803
2003 191 71 -2,886 4,065
2004 153 83 -3,879 4,299
2005 124 82 -4,155 3,190
INITIAL
FINAL
TRUE-UP
UFE (MW)
UFE (MW)
UFE (MW)
19 UFE 2005 Analysis
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2005
SR11b
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
2002 2,321 2,257 0 6,969
2003 857 759 0 3,906
2004 606 472 0 4,559
2005 649 491 0 5,537
2002 1,666 1,579 0 5,654
2003 711 603 0 3,728
2004 550 414 0 4,302
2005 567 426 0 4,199
2002 838 771 0 3,803
2003 672 528 0 4,065
2004 551 413 0 4,299
2005 568 427 0 4,155
|UFE| (MW)
FINAL
INITIAL
|UFE| (MW)
|UFE| (MW)
TRUE-UP
20 UFE 2005 Analysis
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2005
SR12a
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
2002 -7.0 -7.1 -24.1 16.8
2003 -1.3 -1.3 -12.7 9.4
2004 0.1 0.0 -11.5 13.9
2005 0.2 0.1 -18.9 10.3
2002 -5.3 -5.2 -20.6 9.5
2003 -0.2 -0.4 -10.3 9.4
2004 0.3 0.2 -9.9 13.1
2005 0.3 0.2 -14.7 9.3
2002 -1.7 -1.8 -14.8 10.5
2003 0.4 0.2 -7.9 9.9
2004 0.4 0.3 -9.8 13.1
2005 0.3 0.3 -14.6 9.2
TRUE-UP
INITIAL
FINAL
UFE as PERCENT of LOAD
UFE as PERCENT of LOAD
UFE as PERCENT of LOAD
21 UFE 2005 Analysis
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2005
SR12b
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
2002 7.5 7.2 0.0 24.1
2003 2.8 2.4 0.0 12.7
2004 1.8 1.5 0.0 13.9
2005 1.9 1.5 0.0 18.9
2002 5.6 5.2 0.0 20.6
2003 2.2 1.9 0.0 10.3
2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1
2005 1.7 1.3 0.0 14.7
2002 2.7 2.5 0.0 14.8
2003 2.0 1.7 0.0 9.9
2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1
2005 1.7 1.3 0.0 14.6
|UFE as PERCENT of Load|
INITIAL
TRUE-UP
FINAL
|UFE as PERCENT of Load|
|UFE as PERCENT of Load|
22 UFE 2005 Analysis
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2005
SR13a
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
2002
2003 356 -1,785 -88,773 511,652
2004 2,279 -57 -76,418 200,563
2005 4,224 386 -183,607 730,583
2002 -2,067 -1,841 -23,686 580,173
2003 2,663 -635 -132,426 824,621
2004 2,694 442 -92,510 164,969
2005 4,738 722 -220,201 596,968
2002 -1,777 -2,287 -121,635 933,143
2003 4,993 496 -86,677 904,970
2004 2,923 632 -92,408 168,849
2005 4,970 776 -212,732 603,737
UFE Cost ($)
UFE Cost ($)
Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.
INITIAL
FINAL
TRUE-UP
UFE Cost ($)
23 UFE 2005 Analysis
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2005
SR13b
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
2002
2003 8,804 5,560 0 511,652
2004 6,887 4,055 0 200,563
2005 12,447 6,177 0 730,583
2002 5,664 3,579 0.2 580,173
2003 8,596 4,699 0 824,621
2004 6,297 3,630 0 164,969
2005 10,923 5,345 0 596,968
2002 5,251 3,780 0 933,143
2003 8,695 4,137 0 904,970
2004 6,329 3,605 0 168,849
2005 11,016 5,338 0 603,737
|UFE Cost| ($)
|UFE Cost| ($)
Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.
TRUE-UP
|UFE Cost| ($)
FINAL
INITIAL
24 UFE 2005 Analysis
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2005
SR14a
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
2002
2003 -1.0 -1.0 -11.4 9.4
2004 0.1 0.0 -11.5 13.9
2005 0.2 0.1 -18.9 10.3
2002 -2.2 -2.1 -9.4 3.0
2003 -0.1 -0.3 -8.7 9.4
2004 0.3 0.2 -9.9 13.1
2005 0.3 0.2 -14.7 9.3
2002 -1.6 -1.8 -14.8 10.5
2003 0.4 0.2 -7.9 9.5
2004 0.4 0.3 -9.8 13.1
2005 0.3 0.3 -14.6 9.2
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
TRUE-UP
Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.
INITIAL
FINAL
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
25 UFE 2005 Analysis
STATISTICAL SUMMARY - 2005
SR14b
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
2002
2003 2.6 2.3 0.0 11.4
2004 1.8 1.5 0.0 13.9
2005 1.9 1.5 0.0 18.9
2002 2.7 2.2 0.0 9.4
2003 2.1 1.9 0.0 9.4
2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1
2005 1.7 1.3 0.0 14.7
2002 2.7 2.5 0.0 14.8
2003 2.0 1.7 0.0 9.5
2004 1.7 1.3 0.0 13.1
2005 1.7 1.3 0.0 14.6
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
Note: UFE and |UFE| costs are not calculated for initial settlement in 2002 because LCMZONE cuts are not available to calculate the load weighted MCPE.
INITIAL
FINAL
TRUE-UP
26 UFE 2005 Analysis
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2005
SR15
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 30,500 30,611 20,857 41,503 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 29,659 30,020 21,583 41,296
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 30,506 30,615 20,859 41,504 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 29,662 30,022 21,587 41,298
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 30,507 30,615 20,859 41,504 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 29,666 30,024 21,589 41,303
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 28,017 28,822 20,879 36,156 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 28,432 28,645 20,482 41,265
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 28,020 28,825 20,882 36,156 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 28,435 28,647 20,486 41,266
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 28,022 28,827 20,885 36,158 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 28,437 28,649 20,490 41,268
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 33,461 32,193 20,758 52,001 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 41,322 41,587 26,123 58,184
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 33,462 32,196 20,759 52,001 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 41,326 41,590 26,126 58,186
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 33,464 32,196 20,758 52,003 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 41,324 41,588 26,126 58,183
MAY JUNE
JANUARY FEBRUARY
MARCH APRIL
27 UFE 2005 AnalysisSR16
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2005
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 41,751 41,802 27,202 57,457 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 43,054 43,126 28,730 60,272
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 41,761 41,821 27,261 57,461 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 43,073 43,148 28,797 60,270
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 41,759 41,821 27,262 57,458 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 43,076 43,149 28,798 60,274
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 40,527 39,923 25,246 59,591 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 31,770 30,493 20,954 52,186
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 40,533 39,931 25,247 59,594 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 31,774 30,495 20,959 52,191
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 40,533 39,931 25,247 59,594 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 31,774 30,495 20,959 52,191
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
ERCOT Total Load (MW) 29,708 29,803 21,293 42,574 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 31,330 30,687 20,972 48,136
FINAL FINALERCOT Total Load (MW) 29,712 29,807 21,293 42,580 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 31,334 30,689 20,972 48,141
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPERCOT Total Load (MW) 29,712 29,807 21,293 42,580 ERCOT Total Load (MW) 31,334 30,689 20,972 48,141
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
28 UFE 2005 AnalysisSR17
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2005
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE (MW) 154 47 -2,889 2,766 UFE (MW) 51 -78 -1,687 2,491
FINAL FINALUFE (MW) 60 -37 -2,467 2,806 UFE (MW) 227 123 -1,324 2,376
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE (MW) 34 -65 -2,489 2,782 UFE (MW) 194 90 -1,384 2,353
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE (MW) 44 46 -2,140 2,275 UFE (MW) -7 -5 -1,503 1,532
FINAL FINALUFE (MW) 219 222 -1,586 2,273 UFE (MW) 87 78 -1,228 1,521
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE (MW) 200 203 -1,603 2,257 UFE (MW) 66 54 -1,249 1,494
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE (MW) 469 344 -1,531 2,803 UFE (MW) -86 -150 -2,092 1,941
FINAL FINALUFE (MW) 167 77 -1,577 2,156 UFE (MW) -8 -123 -1,620 1,806
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE (MW) 157 68 -1,573 2,129 UFE (MW) -4 -118 -1,614 1,802
MAY JUNE
JANUARY FEBRUARY
MARCH APRIL
29 UFE 2005 AnalysisSR18
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2005
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE (MW) -411 -414 -3,038 1,795 UFE (MW) 55 -71 -2,076 2,554
FINAL FINALUFE (MW) -139 -144 -2,622 1,873 UFE (MW) 39 -71 -1,765 2,418
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE (MW) -127 -135 -2,608 1,884 UFE (MW) 71 -43 -1,737 2,470
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE (MW) -476 -337 -5,537 3,272 UFE (MW) 451 388 -1,590 3,450
FINAL FINALUFE (MW) -90 -73 -4,199 3,163 UFE (MW) 304 262 -1,419 2,960
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE (MW) -51 -38 -4,155 3,190 UFE (MW) 341 296 -1,361 2,989
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE (MW) 241 245 -1,603 2,251 UFE (MW) 394 342 -2,396 3,538
FINAL FINALUFE (MW) 130 142 -1,202 1,724 UFE (MW) 422 357 -1,717 2,998
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE (MW) 162 176 -1,181 1,720 UFE (MW) 435 363 -1,702 3,013
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
30 UFE 2005 AnalysisSR19
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2005
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE| (MW) 713 567 0 2,889 |UFE| (MW) 612 498 0 2,491
FINAL FINAL|UFE| (MW) 687 573 1 2,806 |UFE| (MW) 560 411 1 2,376
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE| (MW) 690 582 1 2,782 |UFE| (MW) 561 419 1 2,353
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE| (MW) 446 354 0 2,275 |UFE| (MW) 337 269 0 1,532
FINAL FINAL|UFE| (MW) 437 344 0 2,273 |UFE| (MW) 315 253 0 1,521
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE| (MW) 431 335 0 2,257 |UFE| (MW) 312 252 0 1,494
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE| (MW) 665 483 0 2,803 |UFE| (MW) 530 461 0 2,092
FINAL FINAL|UFE| (MW) 519 399 0 2,156 |UFE| (MW) 512 393 0 1,806
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE| (MW) 515 397 0 2,129 |UFE| (MW) 512 390 0 1,802
MAY JUNE
JANUARY FEBRUARY
MARCH APRIL
31 UFE 2005 AnalysisSR20
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2005
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE| (MW) 720 613 0 3,038 |UFE| (MW) 679 556 0 2,554
FINAL FINAL|UFE| (MW) 600 528 0 2,622 |UFE| (MW) 633 501 0 2,418
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE| (MW) 598 524 1 2,608 |UFE| (MW) 635 493 0 2,470
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE| (MW) 1,050 712 1 5,537 |UFE| (MW) 632 493 0 3,450
FINAL FINAL|UFE| (MW) 871 620 0 4,199 |UFE| (MW) 483 370 0 2,960
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE| (MW) 870 617 0 4,155 |UFE| (MW) 502 387 1 2,989
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE| (MW) 503 419 0 2,251 |UFE| (MW) 886 706 0 3,538
FINAL FINAL|UFE| (MW) 431 370 0 1,724 |UFE| (MW) 749 610 1 2,998
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE| (MW) 437 370 1 1,720 |UFE| (MW) 752 608 0 3,013
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
32 UFE 2005 AnalysisSR21
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2005
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE as % of Load 0.4 0.2 -12.7 9.2 UFE as % of Load 0.1 -0.3 -5.8 7.9
FINAL FINALUFE as % of Load 0.1 -0.1 -10.8 9.3 UFE as % of Load 0.7 0.4 -4.6 7.5
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as % of Load 0.0 -0.2 -10.9 9.2 UFE as % of Load 0.6 0.3 -4.8 7.4
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE as % of Load 0.2 0.2 -8.3 9.3 UFE as % of Load 0.0 0.0 -5.4 5.7
FINAL FINALUFE as % of Load 0.8 0.8 -6.3 9.2 UFE as % of Load 0.3 0.3 -4.4 5.7
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as % of Load 0.8 0.7 -6.3 9.1 UFE as % of Load 0.3 0.2 -4.5 5.6
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE as % of Load 1.3 1.1 -5.0 7.2 UFE as % of Load -0.3 -0.4 -5.1 4.6
FINAL FINALUFE as % of Load 0.4 0.3 -5.1 5.4 UFE as % of Load -0.2 -0.3 -4.5 3.9
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as % of Load 0.4 0.2 -5.1 5.3 UFE as % of Load -0.2 -0.3 -4.5 3.9
MAY JUNE
JANUARY FEBRUARY
MARCH APRIL
33 UFE 2005 AnalysisSR22
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2005
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE as % of Load -1.1 -1.0 -6.2 4.1 UFE as % of Load -0.1 -0.2 -4.9 5.2
FINAL FINALUFE as % of Load -0.4 -0.4 -5.1 4.3 UFE as % of Load -0.1 -0.2 -4.8 4.8
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as % of Load -0.4 -0.3 -5.1 4.3 UFE as % of Load 0.0 -0.1 -4.7 4.9
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE as % of Load -1.5 -0.9 -18.9 8.9 UFE as % of Load 1.3 1.3 -5.4 10.3
FINAL FINALUFE as % of Load -0.5 -0.2 -14.7 8.6 UFE as % of Load 0.9 0.9 -4.8 8.8
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as % of Load -0.4 -0.1 -14.6 8.7 UFE as % of Load 1.0 1.0 -4.7 8.9
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE as % of Load 0.8 0.8 -5.4 6.7 UFE as % of Load 1.1 1.2 -10.3 9.2
FINAL FINALUFE as % of Load 0.5 0.5 -3.7 5.8 UFE as % of Load 1.3 1.2 -6.5 8.3
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE as % of Load 0.6 0.6 -3.7 5.9 UFE as % of Load 1.3 1.2 -6.6 8.4
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
34 UFE 2005 AnalysisSR23
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2005
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE as % of Load| 2.3 1.8 0.0 12.7 |UFE as % of Load| 2.0 1.7 0.0 7.9
FINAL FINAL|UFE as % of Load| 2.3 1.9 0.0 10.8 |UFE as % of Load| 1.9 1.4 0.0 7.5
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as % of Load| 2.3 1.9 0.0 10.9 |UFE as % of Load| 1.9 1.5 0.0 7.4
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE as % of Load| 1.6 1.3 0.0 9.3 |UFE as % of Load| 1.2 1.0 0.0 5.7
FINAL FINAL|UFE as % of Load| 1.6 1.2 0.0 9.2 |UFE as % of Load| 1.1 0.9 0.0 5.7
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as % of Load| 1.6 1.2 0.0 9.1 |UFE as % of Load| 1.1 0.9 0.0 5.6
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE as % of Load| 1.9 1.6 0.0 7.2 |UFE as % of Load| 1.3 1.2 0.0 5.1
FINAL FINAL|UFE as % of Load| 1.5 1.2 0.0 5.4 |UFE as % of Load| 1.2 1.0 0.0 4.5
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as % of Load| 1.5 1.2 0.0 5.3 |UFE as % of Load| 1.2 1.0 0.0 4.5
MAY JUNE
JANUARY FEBRUARY
MARCH APRIL
35 UFE 2005 AnalysisSR24
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2005
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE as % of Load| 1.7 1.5 0.0 6.2 |UFE as % of Load| 1.5 1.4 0.0 5.2
FINAL FINAL|UFE as % of Load| 1.4 1.3 0.0 5.1 |UFE as % of Load| 1.4 1.2 0.0 4.8
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as % of Load| 1.4 1.3 0.0 5.1 |UFE as % of Load| 1.4 1.2 0.0 4.9
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE as % of Load| 2.8 1.8 0.0 18.9 |UFE as % of Load| 1.9 1.7 0.0 10.3
FINAL FINAL|UFE as % of Load| 2.2 1.6 0.0 14.7 |UFE as % of Load| 1.5 1.3 0.0 8.8
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as % of Load| 2.2 1.5 0.0 14.6 |UFE as % of Load| 1.5 1.3 0.0 8.9
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE as % of Load| 1.7 1.4 0.0 6.7 |UFE as % of Load| 2.8 2.3 0.0 10.3
FINAL FINAL|UFE as % of Load| 1.5 1.3 0.0 5.8 |UFE as % of Load| 2.4 2.0 0.0 8.3
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE as % of Load| 1.5 1.3 0.0 5.9 |UFE as % of Load| 2.4 2.0 0.0 8.4
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
36 UFE 2005 AnalysisSR25
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2005
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost ($) 3,221 270 -50,446 82,874 UFE Cost ($) 959 -552 -69,552 70,134
FINAL FINALUFE Cost ($) 2,148 -266 -41,158 73,848 UFE Cost ($) 2,688 865 -27,832 76,055
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 1,880 -410 -42,147 73,126 UFE Cost ($) 2,366 619 -37,311 75,277
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost ($) 982 359 -32,711 52,084 UFE Cost ($) 392 -46 -40,079 47,997
FINAL FINALUFE Cost ($) 3,062 2,041 -25,632 63,283 UFE Cost ($) 1,656 732 -32,201 50,187
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 2,832 1,848 -26,059 61,695 UFE Cost ($) 1,380 483 -33,125 48,314
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost ($) 9,703 2,709 -12,618 290,366 UFE Cost ($) 1,153 -1,292 -56,531 292,487
FINAL FINALUFE Cost ($) 5,218 532 -13,654 218,656 UFE Cost ($) 2,834 -1,035 -34,604 329,203
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 5,058 465 -13,789 214,026 UFE Cost ($) 2,930 -1,012 -34,370 328,174
MAY JUNE
JANUARY FEBRUARY
MARCH APRIL
37 UFE 2005 AnalysisSR26
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2005
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost ($) -4,102 -4,801 -66,998 226,208 UFE Cost ($) 7,601 -1,033 -36,643 234,594
FINAL FINALUFE Cost ($) 848 -1,530 -51,069 223,187 UFE Cost ($) 6,754 -998 -33,361 222,786
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 1,095 -1,408 -50,795 225,620 UFE Cost ($) 7,576 -579 -32,543 226,217
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost ($) -5,362 -4,276 -171,533 383,729 UFE Cost ($) 16,029 6,542 -52,820 304,390
FINAL FINALUFE Cost ($) 4,608 -881 -126,420 440,418 UFE Cost ($) 11,690 4,259 -39,982 280,905
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 5,636 -451 -125,062 447,178 UFE Cost ($) 12,672 5,051 -38,572 286,461
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost ($) 4,882 2,434 -88,388 159,282 UFE Cost ($) 14,377 5,220 -183,607 730,583
FINAL FINALUFE Cost ($) 2,572 1,202 -95,017 115,065 UFE Cost ($) 12,330 5,076 -220,201 596,968
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost ($) 3,094 1,533 -95,966 115,453 UFE Cost ($) 12,636 5,086 -212,732 603,737
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
38 UFE 2005 AnalysisSR27
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2005
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE COST| ($) 8,043 5,266 1 82,874 |UFE COST| ($) 6,256 3,952 0 70,134
FINAL FINAL|UFE COST| ($) 7,592 5,302 2 73,848 |UFE COST| ($) 5,727 3,425 1 76,055
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 7,577 5,307 4 73,126 |UFE COST| ($) 5,744 3,429 1 75,277
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE COST| ($) 5,263 3,880 2 52,084 |UFE COST| ($) 4,598 3,029 2 47,997
FINAL FINAL|UFE COST| ($) 5,309 3,663 1 63,283 |UFE COST| ($) 4,356 2,871 4 50,187
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 5,230 3,587 2 61,695 |UFE COST| ($) 4,299 2,825 5 48,314
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE COST| ($) 11,368 4,360 1 290,366 |UFE COST| ($) 8,827 6,061 0 292,487
FINAL FINAL|UFE COST| ($) 8,357 3,718 0 218,656 |UFE COST| ($) 8,832 4,953 6 329,203
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 8,257 3,743 0 214,026 |UFE COST| ($) 8,854 4,893 2 328,174
MAY JUNE
JANUARY FEBRUARY
MARCH APRIL
39 UFE 2005 AnalysisSR28
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2005
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE COST| ($) 12,243 8,805 1 226,208 |UFE COST| ($) 17,535 9,174 3 234,594
FINAL FINAL|UFE COST| ($) 11,065 7,259 0 223,187 |UFE COST| ($) 16,282 8,503 4 222,786
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 11,088 7,222 0 225,620 |UFE COST| ($) 16,548 8,387 8 226,217
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE COST| ($) 25,173 13,565 9 383,729 |UFE COST| ($) 20,009 9,684 4 304,390
FINAL FINAL|UFE COST| ($) 22,879 11,385 5 440,418 |UFE COST| ($) 15,554 7,261 2 280,905
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 23,086 11,508 7 447,178 |UFE COST| ($) 16,142 7,475 1 286,461
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE COST| ($) 8,704 5,310 1 159,282 |UFE COST| ($) 20,647 11,768 0 730,583
FINAL FINAL|UFE COST| ($) 7,174 4,835 3 115,065 |UFE COST| ($) 17,423 9,523 2 596,968
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE COST| ($) 7,297 4,860 5 115,453 |UFE COST| ($) 17,528 9,442 1 603,737
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
40 UFE 2005 AnalysisSR29
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2005
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.4 0.2 -12.7 9.2UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.1 -0.3 -5.8 7.9
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.1 -0.1 -10.8 9.3UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.7 0.4 -4.6 7.5
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.0 -0.2 -10.9 9.2UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.6 0.3 -4.8 7.4
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.2 0.2 -8.3 9.3UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.0 0.0 -5.4 5.7
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.8 0.8 -6.3 9.2UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.3 0.3 -4.4 5.7
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.8 0.7 -6.3 9.1UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.3 0.2 -4.5 5.6
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
1.3 1.1 -5.0 7.2UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
-0.3 -0.4 -5.1 4.6
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.4 0.3 -5.1 5.4UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
-0.2 -0.3 -4.5 3.9
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.4 0.2 -5.1 5.3UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
-0.2 -0.3 -4.5 3.9
MAY JUNE
JANUARY FEBRUARY
MARCH APRIL
41 UFE 2005 AnalysisSR30
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2005
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
-1.1 -1.0 -6.2 4.1UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
-0.1 -0.2 -4.9 5.2
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
-0.4 -0.4 -5.1 4.3UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
-0.1 -0.2 -4.8 4.8
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
-0.4 -0.3 -5.1 4.3UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.0 -0.1 -4.7 4.9
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
-1.5 -0.9 -18.9 8.9UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
1.3 1.3 -5.4 10.3
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
-0.5 -0.2 -14.7 8.6UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.9 0.9 -4.8 8.8
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
-0.4 -0.1 -14.6 8.7UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
1.0 1.0 -4.7 8.9
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.8 0.8 -5.4 6.7UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
1.1 1.2 -10.3 9.2
FINAL FINALUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.5 0.5 -3.7 5.8UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
1.3 1.2 -6.5 8.3
TRUE_UP TRUE_UPUFE Cost as % of Total Cost
0.6 0.6 -3.7 5.9UFE Cost as % of Total Cost
1.3 1.2 -6.6 8.4
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
42 UFE 2005 AnalysisSR31
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2005
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
2.3 1.8 0.0 12.7|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
2.0 1.7 0.0 7.9
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
2.3 1.9 0.0 10.8|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.9 1.4 0.0 7.5
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
2.3 1.9 0.0 10.9|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.9 1.5 0.0 7.4
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.6 1.3 0.0 9.3|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.2 1.0 0.0 5.7
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.6 1.2 0.0 9.2|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.1 0.9 0.0 5.7
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.6 1.2 0.0 9.1|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.1 0.9 0.0 5.6
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.9 1.6 0.0 7.2|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.3 1.2 0.0 5.1
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.5 1.2 0.0 5.4|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.2 1.0 0.0 4.5
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.5 1.2 0.0 5.3|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.2 1.0 0.0 4.5
MAY JUNE
JANUARY FEBRUARY
MARCH APRIL
43 UFE 2005 AnalysisSR32
STATISTICAL SUMMARY – MONTHLY for 2005
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.7 1.5 0.0 6.2|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.5 1.4 0.0 5.2
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.4 1.3 0.0 5.1|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.4 1.2 0.0 4.8
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.4 1.3 0.0 5.1|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.4 1.2 0.0 4.9
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
2.7 1.8 0.0 18.9|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.9 1.7 0.0 10.3
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
2.2 1.5 0.0 14.7|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.5 1.3 0.0 8.8
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
2.2 1.5 0.0 14.6|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.5 1.3 0.0 8.9
INITIAL INITIALMEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX
|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.7 1.4 0.0 6.7|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
2.8 2.3 0.0 10.3
FINAL FINAL|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.5 1.3 0.0 5.8|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
2.4 2.0 0.0 8.3
TRUE_UP TRUE_UP|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
1.5 1.3 0.0 5.9|UFE Cost| as % of Total Cost
2.4 2.0 0.0 8.4
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JULY AUGUST
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
44 UFE 2005 AnalysisUFD01
Percent Distribution of Total UFE (MW) Initial to Final - 2005
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-199
7
-150
0
-100
0-9
00-8
00-7
00-6
00-5
00-4
00-3
00-2
00-1
00 010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
010
0011
0012
0013
0014
00
UFE (MW)
Pe
rce
nt
of
Inte
rva
ls w
ith
UF
E V
alu
es
Initial Final
45 UFE 2005 AnalysisUFD02
Percent Distribution of Total UFE (MW) Final to True-Up - 2005
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-199
9
-149
8
-100
0-9
00-8
00-7
00-6
00-5
00-4
00-3
00-2
00-1
00 010
020
030
040
050
060
070
080
090
010
0011
0012
0013
0014
00
UFE (MW)
Pe
rce
nt
of
Inte
rva
ls w
ith
UF
E V
alu
es
Final True Up
46 UFE 2005 Analysis
2005 Distribution of UFE Percent of ERCOT Load
UFD03
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
-5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load
Dis
trib
uti
on
of
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
Lo
ad
Initial Final True-Up
47 UFE 2005 Analysis
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2005 Initial Settlement95% Confidence Interval
CIP01
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Day of the Week 2005
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun TueMon Wed Thur Fri Sat
48 UFE 2005 AnalysisCIP02
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2005 Final Settlement95% Confidence Interval
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Day of the Week 2005
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun TueMon Wed Thur Fri Sat
49 UFE 2005 AnalysisCIP03
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2005True-Up Settlement95% Confidence Interval
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Day of the Week 2005
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun TueMon Wed Thur Fri Sat
50 UFE 2005 AnalysisCIP04
UFE Percent of ERCOT Load 2005Comparison of MediansWith 95% Confidence Interval
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Day of the Week 2005
UF
E P
erc
en
t o
f E
RC
OT
Lo
ad
Initial Final True Up
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
51 UFE 2005 Analysis
Seasonal Comparison - Spring 2005UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
SEA01
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Day of the Week
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
ER
CO
T L
oad
(M
W)
Initial Final True Up Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
52 UFE 2005 Analysis
Seasonal Comparison - Summer 2005UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
SEA02
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Day of the Week
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
ER
CO
T L
oad
(M
W)
Initial Final True Up Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
53 UFE 2005 Analysis
Seasonal Comparison - Fall 2005UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
SEA03
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Day of the Week
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
ER
CO
T L
oad
(M
W)
Initial Final True Up Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
54 UFE 2005 Analysis
Seasonal Comparison - Winter 2005UFE Percent of ERCOT Load and ERCOT Load
SEA04
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Day of the Week
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
ER
CO
T L
oad
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
ER
CO
T L
oad
(M
W)
Initial Final True Up Total ERCOT Aggregated Load Adjusted for Losses
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
55 UFE 2005 AnalysisSEA05
Seasonal Comparison of Medians – Initial SettlementUFE Percent of ERCOT Load - 2005
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Day of the Week
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
Lo
ad
Spring Summer Fall Winter
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
56 UFE 2005 AnalysisSEA06
Seasonal Comparison of Medians – Final SettlementUFE Percent of ERCOT Load - 2005
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Day of the Week
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
Lo
ad
Spring Summer Fall Winter
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
57 UFE 2005 AnalysisSEA07
Seasonal Comparison of Medians – True UpUFE Percent of ERCOT Load - 2005
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Day of the Week
UF
E P
erce
nt
of
Lo
ad
Spring Summer Fall Winter
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
58 UFE 2005 Analysis
Percent UFE vs ERCOT LoadInitial Settlement - 2005
MPL01
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Pe
rce
nt
UF
E
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Total Aggregated Load
59 UFE 2005 Analysis
Percent UFE vs ERCOT LoadFinal Settlement - 2005
MPL02
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Pe
rce
nt
UF
E
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Total Aggregated Load
60 UFE 2005 Analysis
Percent UFE vs ERCOT LoadTrue-Up Settlement – 2005
MPL03
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Pe
rce
nt
UF
E
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Total Aggregated Load
61 UFE 2005 Analysis
Comparison of Median Percent UFEInitial, Final and True-Up Settlements - 2005
MPL04
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Pe
rce
nt
UF
E
Initial Final True Up
62 UFE 2005 Analysis
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs LoadInitial Settlement - 2005
MPL05
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Lo
ad
We
igh
ted
Av
era
ge
MC
PE
($
/MW
H)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Load
63 UFE 2005 Analysis
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Load Final Settlement - 2005
MPL06
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Lo
ad
We
igh
ted
Av
era
ge
MC
PE
($
/MW
H)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Load
64 UFE 2005 Analysis
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Load True Up Settlement - 2005
MPL07
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Lo
ad
We
igh
ted
Av
era
ge
MC
PE
($
/MW
H)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Load
65 UFE 2005 Analysis
Comparison of Median Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Load for Initial, Final and True-Up Settlements - 2005
MPL08
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
ERCOT Load (MW)
Lo
ad
We
igh
ted
Av
era
ge
MC
PE
($
/MW
H)
Initial Final True Up
66 UFE 2005 Analysis
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Percent UFE Initial Settlement - 2005
MPL09
-100.0
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
-19.0 -17.0 -15.0 -13.0 -11.0 -9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0
Percent UFE of Load
Lo
ad
We
igh
ted
Av
era
ge
MC
PE
($
/MW
H)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Percent UFE
67 UFE 2005 AnalysisMPL10
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Percent UFE Final Settlement - 2005
-50.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
-15.0 -12.0 -9.0 -6.0 -3.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0
Percent UFE of Load
Lo
ad
We
igh
ted
Av
era
ge
MC
PE
($
/MW
H)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Percent UFE
68 UFE 2005 AnalysisMPL11
Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Percent UFE True-Up Settlement - 2005
-50.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
-15.0 -12.0 -9.0 -6.0 -3.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0
Percent UFE of Load
Lo
ad
We
igh
ted
Av
era
ge
MC
PE
($
/MW
H)
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on MCPE vs Percent UFE
69 UFE 2005 Analysis
Comparison of Median Load Weighted Average MCPE vs Percent UFE forInitial, Final and True-Up Settlements - 2005
MPL12
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
-19.0 -17.0 -15.0 -13.0 -11.0 -9.0 -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0
Percent UFE of Load
Lo
ad W
eig
hte
d A
vera
ge
MC
PE
($/
MW
H)
Initial Final True UP
70 UFE 2005 Analysis
Sum of Dollars from Positive UFEacross the Week 2005
UCT02
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
71 UFE 2005 Analysis
Sum of Dollars from Negative UFEacross the Week 2005
UCT03
-700,000
-600,000
-500,000
-400,000
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
72 UFE 2005 AnalysisUCT04
Sum of Dollars from Absolute Value of UFE across the Week 2005
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Day of the Week
Do
llar
s
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
73 UFE 2005 Analysis
Sum of Dollars from Net UFE across the Week 2005
UCT05
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
74 UFE 2005 AnalysisUCT06
SUM of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2005Positive and Negative UFE
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Day of the Week
Do
llar
s
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: October 1 - November 30
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - September 30
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: December 1 - February 28
75 UFE 2005 Analysis
SUM of UFE Dollars – Spring 2005Positive and Negative UFE
UCT07
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
76 UFE 2005 AnalysisUCT08
SUM of UFE Dollars – Summer 2005Positive and Negative UFE
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - September 30
77 UFE 2005 AnalysisUCT09
SUM of UFE Dollars – Fall 2005Positive and Negative UFE
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: October 1 - November 30
78 UFE 2005 AnalysisUCT10
SUM of UFE Dollars – Winter 2005Positive and Negative UFE
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
SUM(+UFE) SUM(-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: December 1 - February 28
79 UFE 2005 AnalysisUCT11
SUM of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2005Absolute Value and Net UFE
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
80 UFE 2005 Analysis
SUM of UFE Dollars – Spring 2005Absolute Value and Net UFE
UCT12
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
81 UFE 2005 AnalysisUCT13
SUM of UFE Dollars – Summer 2005Absolute Value and Net UFE
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
82 UFE 2005 AnalysisUCT14
SUM of UFE Dollars – Fall 2005Absolute Value and Net UFE
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
83 UFE 2005 AnalysisUCT15
SUM of UFE Dollars – Winter 2005 Absolute Value and Net UFE
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
84 UFE 2005 Analysis
Mean of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2005Positive and Negative UFE
UCT16
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
Day of the Week
Do
llars
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
85 UFE 2005 AnalysisUCT17
Mean of UFE Dollars – Spring 2005Positive and Negative UFE
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
86 UFE 2005 AnalysisUCT18
Mean of UFE Dollars – Summer 2005Positive and Negative UFE
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
87 UFE 2005 AnalysisUCT19
Mean of UFE Dollars – Fall 2005Positive and Negative UFE
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
88 UFE 2005 AnalysisUCT20
Mean of UFE Dollars – Winter 2005Positive and Negative UFE
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
Mean (+UFE) Mean (-UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
89 UFE 2005 Analysis
Mean of UFE DollarsCompare All Seasons in 2005 Absolute Value and Net UFE
UCT21
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
90 UFE 2005 AnalysisUCT22
Mean of UFE Dollars – Spring 2005Absolute Value and Net UFE
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Spring: March 1 - April 30
91 UFE 2005 AnalysisUCT23
Mean of UFE Dollars – Summer 2005Absolute Value and Net UFE
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Summer: May 1 - Sept 30
92 UFE 2005 AnalysisUCT24
Mean of UFE Dollars – Fall 2005 Absolute Value and Net UFE
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Fall: Oct 1 - Nov 30
93 UFE 2005 AnalysisUCT25
Mean of UFE Dollars – Winter 2005Absolute Value and Net UFE
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
Day of the Week
Do
lla
rs
ABS (UFE) Net (UFE)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Winter: Dec 1 - Feb 28
94 UFE 2005 Analysis
Annual validation 2004 was suspended for residential premises.
PRR’s implemented: PRR488 Weather Responsiveness
Determination
PRR514 Twelve Month Window for Non-IDR Scaling
PRR536 lower IDR Mandatory Installation Threshold to 700 MW (or KVA)
PRR544 12-Month Window for Scaling NIDR to IDR ESI IDs .
Events that Influenced UFE in 2005
95 UFE 2005 Analysis
Improve Business Profile ID assignment process Improve models using Round 2 load research
data Increase the number of IDR’s Leverage AMI capability by increased use of TOU
metering and more frequent meter reads Evaluate Lagged Dynamic sampling techniques
and their application to the ERCOT System Continue to evaluate improvements to algorithms
for missing IDR and NIDR data estimation Continue to make improvements to loss
estimations – updated TDSP loss studies.
Next Steps