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IntroductionP R I V A T E B A N K I N G V I E W S

The investment views of private bankers

are often an important indicator of where

market sentiment truly lies.

And although investment heads don’t

spend their days gazing into crystal balls,

they still have to take a stance on how

different asset classes will develop in the

future.

In this report, we canvass the latest

quarterly and monthly investment views

from the CIOs and investment heads of

wealth management divisions from 20 of

Europe’s biggest private banks.

In three sections of this publication, we

present asset allocators’ stances on

equities, bonds and alternatives. After

each section, we have compiled a verdict

outlining where the consensus falls and

where the strongest feelings lie.

Last but not the least, we have mapped out

the most frequently mentioned words in

equities, bonds and alternatives, drawing a

summary of where the views of CIOs align.

We hope this report will help you to

find out what private banks

are really thinking about

the major asset classes

and will give you an

idea where the next

contrarian bet might be.

M A R G A R Y T A K I R A K O S I A N , C I T Y W I R E

bout

ses

be.

2 Equities • Views

4 Equities • Verdict

5 Bonds • Views

7 Bonds • Verdict

8 Alternatives • Views

10 Alternatives • Verdict

11 Summary

P H I L I P P B Ä R T S C H I • B A N K J . S A F R A S A R A S I N

Y V E S B O N Z O N • B A N K J U L I U S B A E R & C O

F L O R E N T B R O N È S • B N P P A R I B A S W M

R I C H A R D D E G R O O T • A B N A M R O

C A R L O S D Í A S N Ú Ñ E Z • S A N T A N D E R P B

H A N D I E P E R I N K • R A B O B A N K

M A N U E L A D ’ O N O F R I O • U N I C R E D I T

M A R K H A E F E L E • U B S G L O B A L W M

A R N E H A S S E L • B A R C L A Y S I N V E S T M E N T S O L U T I O N S

B O B H O M A N • I N G

EquitiesP R I V A T E B A N K I N G V I E W S


F R É D É R I C L A M O T T E • C A I N D O S U E Z W M

E N R I Q U E M A R A Z U E L A • B B V A

S T É P H A N E M O N I E R • L O M B A R D O D I E R P B

A L A N M U D I E • S O C I É T É G É N É R A L E P B

C H R I S T I A N N O LT I N G • D E U T S C H E B A N K W M

S T U A R T P A R K I N S O N • H S B C

C E S A R P E R E Z R U I Z • P I C T E T W M

C H R I S - O L I V E R S C H I C K E N T A N Z • C O M M E R Z B A N K

M A R K U S S T A D L M A N N • L L O Y D S B A N K P B

M I C H A E L S T R O B A E K • C R E D I T S U I S S E


Stocks continue to outperform bonds, but it is a very narrow market in which the 10 largest tech stocks are responsible for the rises in both the S&P 500 and the MSCI World this year.

THE SO CALLED ‘TRADE WAR’ IS MORE MYTH THAN REALITY,

ALTHOUGH CHINA SHOWS SIGNS OF

SLOWING GROWTH.

As we move closer to the end of the economic cycle, we will be making more room for value shares in our tactical asset allocation.

Most CIOs are positive on equities on the back of solid

fundamentals, economic growth, positive earnings results and

central banks’ moderate tightening policies. Growth is

largely favoured over value based on stronger company

earnings too. However, views diverge regionally, as

some consider US stocks too expensive – especially

in the tech space – while others like them despite

the high valuations. Trade tensions haven’t spooked

those looking towards emerging markets, where

Asia is the overwhelming favourite.

Given headwinds related to trade tensions, we favour a barbell strategy between defensive and growth stocks.

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company

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oked

re

BondsP R I V A T E B A N K I N G V I E W S












We maintain a cautious view

income assets, which we believe do

to the investor.

AS EXPECTED, 2018 SO FAR DOES

NOT RESEMBLE LAST YEAR WHEN IT COMES TO THE

BOND MARKET.

Market volatility has been increasing, and the use of core government bonds as safe havens could temporarily push down yields. It’s two steps forward, one step back.

The outlook for bonds is cautious

but not negative. The CIOs

anticipate that tightening is

set to continue, with four hikes

expected from the Fed. Although

still unloved, government bonds

are now considered potential

diversifiers in case of future

volatility. The outlook for credit is

mixed, with some investors feeling

positive while others are scaling

back their exposure.

The asset allocators

agree that EMD has

a solid long-term

future, despite the

current drop.

posure.

ocators

MD has

erm

te the

AlternativesP R I V A T E B A N K I N G V I E W S












New opportunities in global macro and long/short segments will emerge due to the expected

rising interest rates and the current rise in volatility.

HEIGHTENED M&A ACTIVITY

DRIVEN HEDGE FUND MANAGERS TO CONTINUE TO BENEFIT FROM RISING

OPPORTUNITIES IN MERGER ARBITRAGE.

As a less accommodative monetary policy environment in Europe nears, we have reduced corporate investment grade in our euro and CHF portfolios in favour of hedge fund exposures.

Volatility is back, and

diversification seems to be the

name of the game. This is the

consensus among those CIOs who

use hedge funds as part of their

strategic allocations. Currently,

event-driven and global macro

strategies are in the spotlight.

The view on real estate is mainly

neutral. Concerns about global

trade dampen the

outlook for metals,

while some asset

allocators consider

the oil price to be

tight.

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metals,

asset

nsider

to be

SummaryP R I V A T E B A N K I N G V I E W S

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