Two New Applications of Satellite Remote Sensing: Timely Updates to Emission Inventories and

Constraints on Ozone Production

Randall Martin, Dalhousie and Harvard-SmithsonianLok Lamsal, Matthew Cooper, Akhila Padmanabhan, Aaron van Donkelaar, Dalhousie U

Qiang Zhang, Tsinghua UniversityChris Sioris, Environment Canada

Kaley Walker, University of TorontoChris Boone, University of Waterloo

Peter Bernath, York UniversityBastien Sauvage, University of Toulouse

AGU Fall Meeting

17 December 2010

Bottom-Up Emission Inventories Take Years to CompileBottom-Up Emission Inventories Take Years to Compile

Bottom-up Anthropogenic NOBottom-up Anthropogenic NOxx Emission Inventory from Emission Inventory from Land Sources for 2006Land Sources for 2006

Based on EDGAR (2000), CAC (2005), NEI2005, BRAVO (1999), EMEP (2006), Zhang (2006), scaled to 2006

Changes in Tropospheric NOChanges in Tropospheric NO22 Column Reflect Column Reflect Changes in NOChanges in NOxx Emissions Emissions

Trend in Tropospheric NO2 Column over 1996-2002 from GOME

Richter et al., 2005

1996 - 2002

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Satellite

MAX

BGE

Discrepancy in Satellite NODiscrepancy in Satellite NO22 and Bottom-up NO and Bottom-up NOxx Trends Trends for Chinafor China

Does Not Account for Feedback of NOx Emissions on NOx Lifetime

Zhang et al., 2007

Satellite NO2 Column

Bottom-up NOx Emissions

Rel

ativ

e C

hang

e

SCIAMACHYSCIAMACHY• Launched in 2002 onboard Envisat

• UV-Vis-NIR spectrometer

• Retrievals include tropospheric NO2 column (Akhila Padmanabhan)

• Global coverage in >6 days

GEOS-ChemGEOS-Chem

• Global Chemical Transport Model• Global resolution of 1o x 1.25o

(Lok Lamsal)

Application of Satellite Observations for Timely Updates Application of Satellite Observations for Timely Updates to NOto NOxx Emission Inventories Emission Inventories

Use GEOS-Chem to Calculate Local Sensitivity of Changes in Trace Use GEOS-Chem to Calculate Local Sensitivity of Changes in Trace Gas Column to Changes in EmissionsGas Column to Changes in Emissions

E

Walker et al., ACP, 2010

Local sensitivity of column changes to emissions changes

Fractional Change in Emissions

Fractional Change in Trace Gas Column

Lamsal et al., GRL, submitted

Apply to regions where anthropogenic emissions dominate (>50%)

GEOS-Chem calculation of β for 2006

Insensitive to changes in anthropogenic CO and VOCs

Evaluate Hindcast Inventory Versus Bottom-upEvaluate Hindcast Inventory Versus Bottom-upHindcast for 2003 Based on Bottom-up for 2006 and Hindcast for 2003 Based on Bottom-up for 2006 and

SCIAMACHY NOSCIAMACHY NO22 for 2003-2006 for 2003-2006

Lamsal et al., GRL, submitted

HindcastBottom-up

Forecast Inventory for 2009 Based on Bottom-up for 2006 Forecast Inventory for 2009 Based on Bottom-up for 2006 and SCIAMACHY NOand SCIAMACHY NO22 for 2006-2009 for 2006-2009

Temporary Dataset Until Bottom-Up Inventory AvailableTemporary Dataset Until Bottom-Up Inventory Available

Lamsal et al., GRL, submitted

9% increase in global emissions

21% increase in Asian emissions

Models Explain Wave-1 Pattern in Tropospheric Ozone in Models Explain Wave-1 Pattern in Tropospheric Ozone in part by High Ozone Production Efficiency (>100 mol/mol) part by High Ozone Production Efficiency (>100 mol/mol)

of Upper Tropospheric NOxof Upper Tropospheric NOx

OMI

How well do Models Simulate Ozone Production Efficiency?

Sauvage et al., JGR, 2007

OPE in lower trop: <10 mol/mol [Trainer et al, 1993]OPE in middle trop: 50 mol/mol [Hudman et al., 2004]

Ozone Production Efficiency (OPE)Ozone Production Efficiency (OPE)

2NONO

3HNO

Convective outflow:

No HNO3,

some initial O3, NOx

3( )P O

Can estimate OPE using O3 and HNO3 concentrations

( )xL NO

3 3 3

x 3 3

P(O ) P(O ) ΔOOPE=

L(NO ) P(HNO ) ΔHNO

Testing the MethodTesting the Method

How does calculating OPE from concentrations compare to direct calculation from production rates?

Difference driven by loss of HNO3 (ie scavenging) OPE from concentrations is an upper limit estimate

OPE=140 /mol mol

3

3

ΔOOPE ?= ΔHNO

3

3

ΔOOPE= =190 /

ΔHNOmol mol

Using GEOS-Chem:

Cooper et al., JGR, submitted

Direct Calculation

ACE-FTSACE-FTS

• Launched in 2004

• Solar Occultation Instrument: 15 sunrises & sunsets / day

• Vertical Resolution <3 km

• Retrievals include O3 & HNO3

Ozone Production Efficiency from ACE-FTSOzone Production Efficiency from ACE-FTS• OPE given by slope • OPE = 200(+40, -64) mol/mol• Uncertainty sources:

• Slope error = ±7 mol/mol• ACE biases = ±10 mol/mol• Initial O3 = ±37 mol/mol• Loss of HNO3 = -50 mol/mol

• Comparable to tropical mean OPE from GEOS-Chem (140 mol/mol)

• First estimate of OPE using satellite data

3

3

HNOOOPE

OPE from ACE-FTS (11.5 km)

r=0.71

Cooper et al., JGR, submitted

Spatial Variation in Ozone Production EfficiencySpatial Variation in Ozone Production Efficiency

Whole Tropics Tropical Atlantic Tropical Pacific

ACE-FTS OPE (mol/mol)

200(+40,-64) 150(+17,-54) 250(+20,-54)

OPE from GC 141 93 196

O3 outflow (ppbv) 25±1 34±3 19±2

Number of Points 368 62 65

OPE from GEOS-Chem Production Rates (11 km)

Cooper et al., JGR, submitted

Two New Applications of Satellite Remote SensingTwo New Applications of Satellite Remote Sensing

Timely Updates to NOx Emissions• Intentionally simple approach• Fills the gap until bottom-up inventories become available• Continue developing simulation to relate NO2 to NOx Emissions

Satellite-based Estimate of Ozone Production Efficiency• Broadly consistent with current understanding• Develop representation of HNO3 scavenging • Higher observations frequency could yield spatially-resolved estimate