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Best Bets special edition

super Bowl XlViiFeBruary 3, 2013 NEW ORLEANS, LA

welcoMe to prop city!A breakdown of every major proposition bet offered for the big game, including the number of rushing yards Colin Kaepernick will gain.

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49ERS vs RAVENSSAN FRANCISCO’S FRANK GORE AND

BALtImORE’S RAy RICE pOWER thEIR tEAmS’ GROuND AttACKS

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C L I C K H e r e F o r a C C e S S t o D a I L Y N B a & C o L L e G e B a S K e t B a L L B e S t B e t S

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Joe Flacco has been on fire in the playoffs,posting a 114.7 passer rating while rack-ing up 284 passing yards per game to go along with 8 TDs and no interceptions.

C L I C K H e r e F o r m o r e S u p e r B o w L I N S I G H t , I N C L u D I N G t H e S t a t F o x F o r e C a S t e r p I C K

prediction:

The Baltimore Ravens fly south to do battle with the San Francisco 49ers in New Orleans. Media has spent countless hours speaking about the two brother head coaches, so I will let them continue and focus more on the ATS winner here. Both teams come into this game playing solid straight-up and against the spread. The Ravens have won 4 of 5 ATS and SU, the only blemish being the meaningless season finale in which they rested their starters for most of the game in Cincinnati. Both teams have six wins on the road while surrendering close to 21 points per game. The opening line had San Francisco -5 and is presently sitting at -3½ points, According to the Statfox Money Tracker, the betting public is correct when moving the money line in Baltimore games 73 percent of the time over the past three seasons.

raVens 30, 49ers 28

statFoX daVe’s super Bowl XlVii Best Bet:

BaltiMore (+3½) oVer san Francisco

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prediction:


Patrick Willis leads a San Francisco defense that is arguably the best unit that Joe Flacco and the Ravens have faced in months.

I can’t quite shake the fact that I’ve watched ev-ery Ravens game this season, and including the playoffs I’ve never come away saying, “Now there’s a great team.” The Wild Card win over the Colts was probably their best whole game since September. The second half of the AFC Cham-pionship was the best 30 minutes they played, though they got a major boost when New Eng-land’s only NFL-caliber cornerback (Aqib Talib) went down with a hammy. They’ve played good situational football, but can they contain Colin Kaepernick for 60 minutes? Can their weak offensive tackles keep the Niners off Joe Flacco? Can Flacco pick apart the best defense he’s seen in months? Can the Ravens defense rely on their physicality against a Niners offense that often pounds opponents into submission? I’d be sur-prised if the Ravens came within a possession.

49ers 28, raVens 17

statFoX Gary’s super Bowl XlVii Best Bet:

san Francisco (-3½) oVer BaltiMore




San Francisco has averaged more than 28 points per game since Colin Kaepernick replaced Alex Smith as the team’s quarterback. prediction:

The Over is 9-1 in the past 10 San Francisco games, as the Niners have put up 28.1 PPG dur-ing this stretch. It’s no coincidence that this stretch coincides with Colin Kaepernick replac-ing Alex Smith as the team’s quarterback. The Ravens are averaging 28.0 PPG in their past five games despite playing with game time tempera-tures of 51, 26, 49, 13 and 41 degrees. Not only is Ravens QB Joe Flacco on fire this postseason (114.7 passer rating, 284 passing YPG, 8 TD, no INT), but he has also been outstanding indoors over the past three seasons, completing 71-of-115 passes (62%) for 839 yards (7.3 YPA), 8 TD and just 1 INT. Kaepernick has averaged 7.8 yards per carry in dome games this season (132 yards on 17 carries), while completing 65% of his passes indoors. I expect both teams to score at least 27 points on Sunday.

raVens 31, 49ers 30

statFoX Brian’s super Bowl XlVii Best Bet:

total = oVer 47½



prediction:


With nine tackles, a pass defensed and a forced fumble against the Patriots, Bernard Pollard was arguably the Ravens’ best defender in the AFC title game.

Because the Ravens gave up 35 points to Denver in the Divisional round, the team’s post-season defen-sive performance doesn’t look as impressive on the surface as it does upon digging a bit deeper. Not only did the Broncos score in that game on both 90-yard punt and 104-yard kickoff returns, but the game last-ed five-plus quarters. So despite the fact that Balti-more had to go on the road in back-to-back weeks to play the only two NFL teams to average more than 30 points per game in 2012, the Ravens gave up a to-tal of just 34 points on defense (21 to Denver, 13 to New England) in more than nine quarters. San Fran’s regular-season output away from home with Colin Kaepernick was as follows: 31 points in a dome vs. the Saints, who had the worst defense in NFL history, but 14 of the 31 came on pick-sixes; 13 in a dome in an overtime game at St. Louis; 41 against Patriots, which was impressive, but it was aided by long returns, a bad New England defense and the fact that the Patri-ots turned the ball over four times; and 13 at Seattle.

raVens 20, 49ers 19

statFoX scott’s super Bowl XlVii Best Bet:

total = under 47½




With 23 catches for 369 yards and 3 TDs over his past four games, Anquan Boldin offers intriguing value at 16-to-1 to be named MVP of Super Bowl XLVII.

colin Kaepernick 7/4Joe Flacco 11/4Frank Gore 7/1ray lewis 7/1 ray rice 10/1Michael crabtree 14/1 anquan Boldin 16/1 Vernon davis 18/1 torrey smith 20/1 ed reed 33/1 aldon smith 40/1 dennis pitta 40/1 randy Moss 40/1

odds to win super Bowl XlVii MVp

An argument could be made that Anquan Boldin has been Baltimore’s Most Valuable Player in two of the team’s three post-season games, with his 145-yard effort against the Colts and his two fourth-quarter touchdown receptions against the Patriots. If San Fran has had a weakness in the playoffs, it’s been the team’s pass defense, which gave up 396 pass-ing yards to the Falcons. Expect Baltimore to attack through the air, and for Boldin to put up big numbers.

anQuan Boldin at 16/1Best Value:

patrick willis 50/1 terrell suggs 50/1 Bernard pollard 66/1 dashon Goldson 66/1 david akers 66/1 laMichael James 66/1 naVorro Bowman 66/1 Bernard pierce 75/1 Justin tucker 75/1 ted Ginn Jr. 75/1 alex smith 100/1 delanie walker 100/1 Field 22/1




Colin Kaepernick has surpassed 31 rushing yards in a game just three times in nine games since becoming San Francisco’s starting quarterback.

You have to go back to the 2006 regular season to find the last time the Ravens gave up more than 40 rushing yards to an opposing quarterback. Granted, there aren’t many QBs with the running ability Colin Kaepernick has displayed in recent weeks, but Balti-more did face both Michael Vick and Robert Griffin III this season when each player was healthy. Vick was held to 34 rushing yards on 10 carries in Week 2, and RGIII to 34 rushing yards on seven carries in Week 14. The Ravens will not allow Kaepernick to reach 50 rushing yards on Sunday.

KaepernicK under 50½ rush yards

QuarterBacK player props

Best Bet:

category Joe Flacco colin Kaepernickpassing yards over/under 250½ 232½ passing attempts over/under 34½ 27½ total completions over/under 20½ 17½ longest completion over/under 40½ 37½ td passes over/under 1½ (+105u) 1½ (-130u) interceptions over/under ½ (+130u) ½ (+110u) rushing attempts over/under 2 7½ rushing yards over/under 2½ 50½




After gaining only 48 yards on 19 carries in the AFC Championship Game against New England, Ray Rice will now face an even tougher San Francisco run defense. Best Bet:

Only four running backs all season reached 70 rush-ing yards against the 49ers: Ahmad Bradshaw, Mar-shawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson and Steven Jackson, who needed 29 carries and five quarters of a tie game to do so. Bernard Pierce has gotten 27 carries in three games this postseason, and figures to cut into Rice’s opportunities in the Super Bowl. Rice is averaging less than 3.9 yards per carry in the postseason and has yet to face a run defense as strong as San Fran’s.

rice under 69½ rushinG yards

runninG BacK player propscategory ray rice Frank Gore rushing yards over/under 69½ 82½ rushing attempts over/under 18½ 20½ yards on 1st attempt over/under 3½ 3½ (+110u)longest rush over/under 17½ 17½receptions over/under 3½ 1½ (+110u)receiving yards over/under 30½ 17½

category B. pierce l. James rushing yards over/under 32½ 25½ receptions over/under ½ (+115u) 1receiving yards over/under 5½ 9½




Randy Moss hasn’t averaged less than 12.5 yards per reception in any of his past six games. He’s had a catch for at least 20 yards in four of his past five games.

wide receiVer player propscategory a. Boldin M. crabtree receiving yards over/under 69½ 77½ yards on 1st catch over/under 11½ 11½ longest reception over/under 27½ 29½ receptions over/under 4½ (+125u) 6

category torrey smith randy Mossreceiving yards over/under 65½ 35½ yards on 1st catch over/under 14½ 10½ longest reception over/under 29½ 17½ receptions over/under 3½ (+115u) 2½

Best Bet:

Boldin has caught five or more passes in each of his past four games. He’s likely to be Joe Flacco’s go-to receiver on Sunday and should have little trouble surpassing what seems to be too low a total.

Boldin oVer 4½ receptions

Best Bet:

Considering that Moss averaged 15.5 yards per catch during the regular season and has a 14.2 yards-per-catch mark in the postseason, it doesn’t make sense that the over/under on his first catch is as low as this.

Moss oVer 10½ yards on 1st catch




Dennis Pitta has at least one catch of 20 or more yards in each of Baltimore’s three playoff games and is averaging 13.7 yards per catch in the postseason.

tiGht end player props

category ed dickson d. walker receiving yards over/under 15½ 20½ receptions over/under 1½ (+105u) 1½

category dennis pitta Vernon davisreceiving yards over/under 45½ 50½ yards on 1st catch over/under 9½ 11½ longest reception over/under 17½ 20½ receptions over/under 4 3½ (+115u)

Best Bet:

Excluding the Ravens’ meaningless regular-season finale, Dickson has been targeted multiplte times in a game only once since Thanksgiving. Any role he ends up playing in the Super Bowl will be as more of a blocker than a receiver.

dicKson under 1½ rec. & 15½ yards

Best Bet:

The Ravens will often use Pitta to stretch the mid-dle of the field, and he has at least one catch of 20 or more yards in five straight games, excluding the meaningless regular-season finale in which the Baltimore starters played only in the first quarter.

pitta oVer 17½ lonGest reception




player prop picK

Who will have more passing attempts: Flacco or Kaepernick?

Flacco -6½

Who will have more completions in the game? Flacco -3

Who will reach 10 completions first? Flacco (-200)

Who will throw the first TD Pass in the game? Flacco (-140)

Who will throw more TD Passes in the game? Flacco (-140)

Who will throw the first Interception in the game?

Kaepernick (+110)

Who will have more rushing yards: Rice or Kaepernick? rice -17½

Who will have more rushing yards: Rice or Gore? Gore -10½

Who will have more rushing yards: Gore or Kaepernick? Gore -30½

Who will have more rushing yards: Pierce or James? pierce -5½

Who will have more receiving yards: Rice or Crabtree? rice +45½

Who will have more receiving yards: Rice or Moss? rice +4½

Who will have more receiving yards: Rice or V. Davis? rice +17½

Who will have more receiving yards: Boldin or Crabtree? Boldin +7½

Who will have more receiving yards: Boldin or Moss? Moss +32½

Who will have more receiving yards: Boldin or V. Davis? Boldin -15½

Who will have more receiving yards: T. Smith or Crabtree?

crabtree -10½

Who will have more receiving yards: T. Smith or Moss? Moss +27½

Who will have more receiving yards: T. Smith or V. Davis? smith -12½

Who will have more receiving yards: Pitta or Crabtree?

crabtree -30½

Who will have more receiving yards: Pitta or Moss? Moss +9½

Who will have more receiving yards: Pitta or V. Davis? pitta +4½

player prop picK

Player to score the first TD in the game anquan Boldin at 8-to-1

Who will score a TD first: Rice or Gore? Gore (-155)

Who will score a TD first: Pitta or V. Davis? pitta (+145)

Who will catch a pass first: Rice or Crabtree? rice (+145)

Who will catch a pass first: Rice or Moss? rice (-140)

Who will catch a pass first: Rice or V. Davis? rice (-115)

Who will catch a pass first: Boldin or Crabtree? Boldin (eVen)

Who will catch a pass first: Boldin or Moss? Boldin (-200)

Who will catch a pass first: Boldin or V. Davis? Boldin (-150)

Who will catch a pass first: T. Smith or Crabtree? crabtree (-155)

Who will catch a pass first: T. Smith or Moss? Moss (+125)

Who will catch a pass first: T. Smith or V. Davis? smith (-115)

Who will catch a pass first: Pitta or Crabtree? pitta (+135)

Who will catch a pass first: Dickson or Walker? walker (-115)

Who will have more receptions: Rice or Crabtree? rice +2½

Who will have more receptions: Rice or V. Davis? rice (+105)

Who will have more receptions: Rice or Moss? rice -½ (-130)

Who will have more receptions: Boldin or Crabtree? Boldin +1

Who will have more receptions: Boldin or Moss? Boldin -2½

Who will have more receptions: Boldin or V. Davis? Boldin -1

Who will have more receptions: T. Smith or Crabtree? crabtree -2

Who will have more receptions: T. Smith or Moss? Moss +1

Who will have more receptions: T. Smith or V. Davis? smith (-115)

Who will have more receptions: Pitta or Crabtree? pitta +2

Who will have more receptions: Pitta or Moss? pitta -1 (-130)

Who will have more receptions: Pitta or V. Davis? pitta (-115)



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teaM prop picK

Team to score first in the game ravens +105

The first score of the game will be Field Goal or safety +120

First Ravens scoring play of the game Field Goal or safety +120

First 49ers scoring play of the game touchdown -150

Will there be a score in the first 7 min 30 seconds of the 1st quarter?

no +145

Ravens Total Team Points over 21½

49ers Total Team Points under 26

Will either team score 3 unanswered times in the game?

no +145

Will the team that scores last win the game? yes -190

Will there be a score in the first 5 minutes of the 1st quarter?

no -210

Will there be a score in the first 6 minutes of the 1st quarter?

no -150

Will there be a score in the final 2 minutes of the 1st half?

no +220

Team to score last in 1st half ravens -115

Will both teams have the lead during the 1st half? yes +130

Team to score last in the game ravens -105

Last scoring play of the game Field Goal or safety +135

Last scoring play of the 1st half Field Goal or safety -115

Ravens first touchdown of the game touchdown pass -175

49ers first touchdown of the game not a touchdown pass -115

Ravens first offensive TD of the game touchdown pass -190

49ers first offensive TD of the game rushing touchdown +105

teaM prop picK

Total QB sacks in the game under 4½

Total QB sacks by Ravens over 2

Total QB Sacks by 49ers under 2½

Team to record the first sack in the game ravens +110

Exact number of QB sacks in the game 4 sacks at 4-to-1

Longest successful field goal in the game over 44½

Exact number of successful field goals kicked in the game

3 field goals at 3-to-1

Team to make the longest successful field goal in the game

ravens -145

Team to make the shortest successful field goal in the game

ravens -115

Shortest successful field goal in the game over 24½

Length of first successful field goal in the game over 33½

Length of first successful field goal in the game

44-49 yards at 5-to-1

Team to make most successful field goals in the game

ravens -105

Team to kick the first successful field goal in the game

ravens -115

Team to commit the most turnovers in the game 49ers -115

The first turnover of the game will be Fumble +120

Total number of penalties made in the game by both teams

under 13½

Team to get the first penalty in the game 49ers +110

Team to call first coach’s challenge in the game ravens -115


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