Twitter Trends in 2009 Elections
Transcript of Twitter Trends in 2009 Elections
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Twitter Trends in Off-Year Elections:Virginia, New Jersey, Massachusetts
by Wyeth Ruthven@wyethwire [email protected]
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How Our Study Was Conducted
Indexed all Twitter accounts by theVirginia and New Jersey gubernatorial
campaigns, including accounts by the
candidates and senior campaign staff
Additionally analyzed institutional
accounts used to promote various
campaign messages. For example, the
Deeds campaign created @DeedsCountry
to promote rural outreach, and
@BobsThesis to raise awareness of
McDonnells graduate school thesis.
For Virginia and New Jersey, compiled all
campaign tweets between August 1st
November 3rd, 2009.
For Massachusetts Senate race, compiled
all campaign tweets from the Nov. 3rd
candidate filing deadline until the Jan. 19th
special election.
Using criteria comparable to thePearAnalytics Study, campaign tweets
were classified into categories:
News: Links to External Content: News
Media, Polls, Independent Blogs
Calls to Action: Requests for Donations,
Volunteers, Voter Registration, GOTV Self-Promotion: On-message tweets, Links
to Campaign Website, Campaign Ads,
References to Candidate Schedule
Personal Observations: Off-message
tweets, personal observations not related
to the campaign
Conversation: @Replies to other Twitter
accounts
Pass-Along Information: Retweets, Follow
Friday mentions and other actions that
show familiarity with Twitter as a medium
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Ruthven Study: Top Line Findings
Methodology: Surveyed 3,521 tweets by campaigns over 3-month period.
Findings
Self-Promotion: 55.10% of all tweets
Pass Along Value: 16.70%
News: 9.74%
Calls to Action: 8.01%
Conversational: 8.01%
Personal Observations: 3.15%
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Compare with Pear
Pear Analytics August 2009 Study
Methodology: Randomly sampled 2000
tweets taken from the public timeline at
30 minute intervals over 5 days
Findings
Pointless Babble: 40.55% of all tweets
Conversational: 37.55%
Pass Along Value: 8.70%
Self-Promotion: 5.85%
Spam: 3.75%
News: 3.60%
Source: http://bit.ly/PearStudy
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Findings: Massachusetts
Both Scott Brown and Martha Coakley ran more effective Twitter campaigns than their
counterparts in Virginia and New Jersey. They generated more followers over a shorter
period of time, and both campaigns effectively used Twitter to issue calls to action for
fundraising, volunteers and get-out-the-vote activities.
The Conversational Campaign: Both Scott Brown and Martha Coakley engaged their Twitter
followers in 2-way communication. Approximately one out of every five tweets by the
candidates was a direct communication with individual followers.
Post-Primary Pause: Coakleys overall lack of campaigning immediately following the primary
was also evident online. During the month after winning their respective party primaries,
Scott Brown made 232 tweets. Martha Coakley had only 77.
Twitter mirrored the surge of money, interest and votes for the Brown campaign. Followers
of @ScottBrownMA increased by 235% in the last week of the campaign, and by 604% since
January 1st.
Tweets about health care reform made up less than 5% of Coakleys Twitter feed and less
than 1% of Browns feed. Nevertheless, the candidates used health care tweets to draw very
sharp contrasts on the issue.
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Findings: Virginia & New Jersey
For most Twitter accounts, Self-Promotion accounted for the majority of tweets. The
exception was @CreighDeeds, where Personal Observations constituted a plurality (44.32%)
of tweets. In fact, Deeds devoted more tweets to his musical tastes (39 tweets) than his
transportation plan (1).
Calls to action are an effective way to engage Twitter in an interactive manner. The most
effective campaigns devoted 10-20% of tweets to calls for donations, volunteers, etc.
Multiple accounts led to message dilution. Campaigns that maintained more than one
account found that their messages did not reach a wide audience. For example, although the
Deeds campaign official Twitter feed had more than 3700 followers, only 3% of these also
followed any of the Deeds staff who were tweeting unique information about the campaign.
By contrast, the two campaigns with a single-account Twitter strategy (@JonCorzine and
@bobmcdonnell) had the greatest reach on Twitter as measured by combining number of
tweets and number of followers.
The single-account strategy is not without its drawbacks. As a best practice, @JonCorzine and
@bobmcdonnell would use special tags to distinguish tweets by staff and tweets by the
candidate. This practice, however, leads to a decline in authenticitythe candidates
personal voice is obscured by staff tweets.
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Findings: Virginia & New Jersey (contd)
Twitter remains largely a one-way medium for campaigns. However, staff are beginning to useconversational tweets to reach out to reporters and voters on Twitter. On the Deeds campaign,
conversational tweets accounted for 10% of all tweets on staff feeds, but only 4% of tweets on
candidate and campaign feeds. In New Jersey, 25% of tweets by @studentsforchris were
conversational, compared with only 3% by the Republican ticket overall.
Across multiple Deeds campaign Twitter feeds, tweets about Bob McDonnell's thesis exceeded
tweets about transportation policy by a ratio of 3-to-1. Similarly, the Christie campaign devoted
15% of tweets to the issues of property taxes and political corruption.
In New Jersey, both campaigns relied heavily on social media tools such as TwitPic and Flickr to
share campaign photos via Twitter. Approximately one out of every three tweets by the Corzine
and Christie campaigns was a link to a campaign photo.
Among Democratic candidates, Twitter mirrored campaign strategy with respect to support of
President Obama. @JonCorzine mentioned Obama 57 times on Twitter, compared with only 6
mentions by @CreighDeeds.
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MA-Senate Twitter Statistics
Twitter Followers News Calls to
Action
Self
Promotion
Observ-
ational
Conver-
sational
Pass
Along
Retweets
@ScottBrownMA 15827 5.54% 16.12% 43.32% 0.50% 18.14% 17.38%
@MarthaCoakley 4361 4.35% 13.61% 37.24% 0.76% 18.15% 25.90%
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MA: The Conversational Campaign
Share of Twitter feed devoted toconversations with followers:
Massachusetts
@MarthaCoakley: 18.15%
@ScottBrownMA: 18.14%
Virginia
@CreighDeeds: 5.68%
@bobmcdonnell: 0.35%
New Jersey
@JonCorzine: 0.40%
@ChristieforNJ: 3.45%
Unlike campaigns in Virginia and NewJersey, the Massachusetts Senate
campaign used Twitter as a 2-way,
conversational medium. Both Scott
Brown and Martha Coakley used @
replies to engage their followers in
conversation. Approximately one out ofevery five tweets in the Massachusetts
Senate race was a direct
communication to individual followers
of a candidates Twitter feed.
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MA: The Post-Primary Pause
0
50
100
150
200
250
Coakley
Brown
Primary Election Campaign (11/3-12/8)
@ScottBrownMA: 191 tweets
@MarthaCoakley: 167 tweets
First Month of General Election: (12/9-1/8)
@ScottBrownMA: 232 tweets@MarthaCoakley: 77 tweets
Last 10 Days Before Election Day (1/9-1/19)
@ScottBrownMA: 106 tweets
@MarthaCoakley: 153 tweets
Critics of the Coakley campaign accused thecandidate of fading from sight in the weeks
following the primary election, while Brown
campaigned aggressively with flurry of public
events and paid media. A similar disparity between
the campaigns was found on Twitter. A late push by
Coakley online failed to close the gap.
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MA: Browns Surge of FollowersTwitter mirrored the
surge of money, interest
and votes for the Brown
campaign. Followers
increased 235% during
the last week of the
campaign, and increased604% since January 1st.
Followers ofCoakleys
Twitter feed failed to
match this pace.
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MA Tweets: Health Care
@MarthaCoakley: 19 tweets (4.78%) @ScottBrownMA: 3 tweets (0.57%)
Despite the national attention focused on the impact of
the election on the fate of health care reform legislation,relatively few Tweets by the candidates mentioned the
issue. When health care reform was invoked on Twitter,
however, the candidates drew very strong contrasts.
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MA Tweets: Top Issues
@MarthaCoakley
Health Care: 19 tweets
Financial Reform: 5 tweets
Taxes: 5 tweets
Veterans: 4 tweets
Abortion: 2 tweets
Green technology: 1 tweet
@ScottBrownMA
Taxes/Spending: 13 tweets
Veterans: 8 tweets
Cap and trade: 4 tweets
Health Care: 3 tweets
Abortion: 1 tweet
National Security: 1 tweet
While media attention on the election focused on health care, other issues
played a prominent role in the online campaign. Fiscal policy was the top
issue featured in Scott Browns Twitter feed, while Martha Coakley
highlighted her support of financial services reform.
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VA-GOV Twitter Statistics
Twitter Followers News Calls to
Action
Self
Promotion
Observ-
ational
Conver-
sational
Pass Along
Retweets
@bobmcdonnell 7051 7.99% 20.14% 71.18% 0.69% 0.35% 2.43%
@CreighDeeds 3720 4.55% 7.95% 39.77% 44.32% 5.68% 0.00%
@DeedsCountry 351 2.38% 5.95% 65.48% 10.71% 3.57% 11.90%
@BobsThesis 100 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
@Joe_Abbey 675 1.14% 4.00% 55.43% 0.57% 16.00% 20.00%
@MoElleithee 792 28.03% 1.01% 38.89% 3.54% 5.30% 23.23%
@mikegehrke 712 15.26% 0.53% 10.00% 18.95% 12.63% 42.63%
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NJ-GOV Twitter Statistics
Twitter Followers News Calls to
Action
Self
Promotion
Observ-
ational
Conver-
sational
Pass Along
Retweets
@JonCorzine 4426 13.84% 4.17% 69.49% 0.00% 0.40% 12.10%
@ChristieforNJ 5008 4.26% 4.46% 81.74% 0.41% 3.45% 5.68%
@sheriffkim 123 4.55% 0.00% 72.73% 1.52% 0.00% 21.21%
@students4chris 252 0.00% 22.92% 37.50% 2.08% 25.00% 12.50%
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VA & NJ: Timing of Tweets
@CreighDeeds @bobmcdonnell
@JonCorzine @ChristieforNJ
Using data compiled byTweetStats.com, tweets
were analyzed by time of
day for the four official
gubernatorial campaign
feeds. The Virginia
campaigns had clear
spikes in tweets duringthe mid-morning hours.
This may indicate that
these campaigns
considered updating the
feed as a regularly
scheduled obligation.Tweets by New Jersey
campaigns more closely
resembled a bell curve,
indicating that tweets
arose organically during
the course of the day.
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Multiple Accounts = Message Dilution
@CreighDeeds+@Joe_Abbey = 117 mutual followers
@CreighDeeds+@MoElleithee = 117 mutual followers
@CreighDeeds+@mikegehrke = 116 mutual followers
@CreighDeeds+@Joe_Abbey+@MoElleithee+@mikegehrke = 82 mutual followers
Our study used the Twitter application www.whofollowswhom.com to sort mutual followers ofmultiple accounts. Although the Deeds campaign official Twitter feed had more than 3700
followers, only 3% of these also followed any of the Deeds senior staff who were tweeting
unique information about the campaign. Unless voters were willing to follow multiple Twitter
accounts, they were missing vital messages that the Deeds campaign wished to communicate
online.
A similar trend was found among the Christie campaign in New Jersey, which created a separate
Twitter account for running mate Kim Guadagno (@sheriffkim). Combined with @students4chris,
the three Christie campaign accounts only shared 27 mutual followers.
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Staff Tags on Tweets
General Staff DisclaimerSpecific Staff Tags
Campaigns relying on a single Twitter account used special tags to distinguish betweenTweets by the candidate and tweets by campaign staff.
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VA Tweets: Thesis vs. Transportation
Twitter Account Thesis Tweets Transportation Tweets
@CreighDeeds 0 1
@Joe_Abbey 18 7
@MoElleithee 57 20
@mikegehrke 12 8
@BobsThesis 24 0
@DeedsCountry 0 0
Total 111 36
The Deeds campaign focused considerable attention on Bob McDonnells 1989 Regent University
thesis. This focus was evident on Twitter as well. The Deeds campaign created a specialized
Twitter account (@BobsThesis) which focused exclusively on the thesis and media coverage of
the controversy. Across the multiple Deeds campaign Twitter feeds, tweets about the thesis
exceeded tweets about transportation by a ratio of 3-to-1.
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NJ Tweets: Taxes vs. Scandal
The Christie campaign focused on the high rates of property taxes in New Jersey. This focus wasevident on Twitter. @ChristieforNJ raised the issue of property taxes in a variety of contexts. The
Christie campaign integrated Twitter into its earned media campaign, tweeting about stops of
overtaxed municipalities during its Countdown to Change Bus Tour. The Christie campaign
placed a similar focus on government ethics, public corruption and a series of political scandals
taking place in New Jersey. Collectively, tweets about taxes and scandal made up 15% of the
Christie campaigns Twitter feed.
46 tweets mentioning taxes
15 tweets mentioning corruption
10 tweets mentioning ethics
4 tweets mentioning local scandals
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NJ: A Tweet is Worth 1000 Pixels
JonCorzine Photo Source ChristieforNJ
176 TwitPic 140
33 Flickr 1
10 yfrog 12
23 Misc. Photo Links 0
242 Total 153
Both the Corzine and Christie campaign used social media tools such as TwitPic and Flickr to sharecampaign photos via Twitter. The use of this technology by both campaigns led to an arms race in
which each side tried to dominate the medium. As a result, photos accounted for a disproportionate
share of the feed. Approximately one out of every three tweets by the Corzine and Christie
campaigns was a link to a campaign photo.
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The Obama Factor
@CreighDeeds : 6 mentions
Many pundits observed that Corzine repeatedly linked himself to President Obama, while
Deeds tried to both distance himself from among swing voters while embracing Obama among
surge voters. This disparity was evident on Twitter. In Massachusetts, President Obama was
deployed late in the campaign: the first Obama reference on @MarthaCoakley was made on
January 13th, just six days before the election.
@JonCorzine: 57 mentions @MarthaCoakley: 17 mentions
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Twitter Campaign Best Practices
One Account per Campaign: Campaigns should resist the temptation to create a new Twitteraccount for each issue or micro-campaign that they are running. Multiple accounts breed
message dilution. Staff should limit their own tweeting on campaign topics. Recurring issues
and themes can be highlighted by creating appropriate hashtags on a unified Twitter feed.
Preserve Authenticity: Campaigns should distinguish between candidate and staff tweets on
the Twitter feed. Twitter is a medium that thrives on authenticity. A staff-driven account will
lack authenticity. However, many candidates focus too much on personal observations and
forfeit the opportunity to communicate campaign messages. Balance is required.
Include Calls to Action: Campaigns should issue at least 3 call-to-action tweets per week, with
a goal of making such tweets 10-20% of the feed. Calls to action should be varied requests for
volunteers, fundraising, voter registration, etc.
Integrate but not overuse other social media: Sharing behind-the-scenes campaign photos
creates authenticity. Posting out-of-focus podium shots from every campaign rally does not.
Campaigns should amplify their Twitter feed with other social media such as photo-sharingsites. But photos should be used sparingly to avoid becoming a distraction.
Links to External Content: Campaigns should link frequently to news media, polls, and
independent blogs as sources of third-party validation. Creating a stream of campaign news
curated by the campaign itself will drive traffic to the Twitter feed and encourage voters to
follow the feed and retweet these links.