Truths we must tell ourselves to manage climate change ... · Carbon budgets O GtCO 2 1600 3200...

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Truths we must tell ourselves to manage climate change Robert Socolow Energy Technologies Area Seminar Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory February 15, 2018

Transcript of Truths we must tell ourselves to manage climate change ... · Carbon budgets O GtCO 2 1600 3200...

Page 1: Truths we must tell ourselves to manage climate change ... · Carbon budgets O GtCO 2 1600 3200 4800 AA few decades A few more decades 1oC, already 2oC 3oC More than a century If

Truthswemusttellourselvestomanageclimatechange

RobertSocolow

EnergyTechnologiesAreaSeminarLawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory

February15,2018

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Whatweproject,andhowfar

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Whatweproject,andhowfar

DestinyStudiesisthesystematicexplorationofhumanity’scollectivefuture.

Ithasthepotentialtotransformtoday’stoxicpublicdiscourseandmutedacademicdiscourse.

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CO2emissionsscenarios

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TheFreshmanSeminar151capsules

Reunions: 0 10 25 50 2046isalsoPU#300.

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“Timecapsulesforclimatechange,tobeopenedatyourreunions”

Student’stopics:SealevelriseandcitiesSolarradiationmanagementCarbondioxideremoval

SolarpowerBatteriesElectricCars

Eachstudentwroteabouttwoalternativefutures:Willtheelectriccardominateorfindonlyniches?Theyinterviewedpeoplewitharangeofviews:HowwilltheCatholicChurchdealwithgeoengineering?

“It’suptous.”

MuddLibraryPhotocredit:DeniseApplewhite

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Theclimatechangeproblem

Doingordinarythings,wearechangingtheplanet.Becauseourclimatescienceissounsettled,thebestandworstoutcomesofwhatwearedoingaredramaticallydifferent.High-carbonindustrializationinthedevelopingcountriesistheNumberOneproblem.(Note:politicallycharged.)

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Oursmallplanet

Ausefulapproximation:Thelong-termaveragetemperatureriseontheEarth’ssurfaceisproportionaltothecumulativeglobalemissionsofCO2.2oCisthemostdiscussedtarget.G=109.

Themultiplierfromemissionstotemperatureriserevealsthatourplanetissmall.Whenweasaspeciesdoordinarythings*globallywiththetechnologieswehave,weharmourselves.*Examplesofordinarythings:eatinghamburgers,commutingtowork,buildingwithconcrete,goingskiing.

1.WewishEarthwerelarger.

OGtCO2160032004800AAfewdecades Afewmore

decades1oC,already 2oC 3oC

Morethanacentury

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CarbonbudgetsOGtCO2160032004800

AAfewdecades Afewmoredecades

1oC,already 2oC 3oCMorethanacentury

Ifwewerenotconfrontingclimatechange,theeraoffossilfuels(coal,oil,andgas)couldlasthundredsofyears.

Whatif,in2018,wehadstillnotfiguredoutCO2?

40≈2oC

1600 1600

40

1940 2020 2100

“Hubbertpeak”equivalent

1600 1600 1600

≈3oC

Addonerectangle:40billiontCO2/yr*40yrs

1940 2020 21402060

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BudgetsdemandchoicesThebudgetconceptleadsinexorablytochoicesaboutwhichfossilfuelstoextractandwhichtoconsider“unburnable”:

When? Betteroptionssomeday?Whose? GeopoliticalstabilityUsedwhere? “Fairness”Forwhatpurpose? Whojudges?Whichfossilfuels? ThosewiththehighestH/Cratio?

2.Judgmentsaboutwhichfossilfuelsare“unburnable”havenoprecedents.

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Climatechangehasuncertain“tails”

Warming

Concen

tration

ThisFigurewaspreparedbyMartinManningforWorkingGroup1duringthepreparationoftheIPCCFourthAssessmentReport(2007),buttheIPCCdidnotpublishit.Idid,withManning’spermission,inClimaticChange,2011.

TheIPCCfacedachoice.

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Theuncertaintwitchinessoftheclimate

Warming

Concen

tration

Twitchyworld

Calmworld

TheIPCCchoice,2007

X

Later,intheFifthAssessmentReport(2012),thelackofconsensuswasnotdisguised:“Nobestestimateforequilibriumclimatesensitivitycannowbegivenbecauseofalackofagreementonvaluesacrossassessedlinesofevidenceandstudies.”

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Wecouldbelucky…orunlucky

Thefourreddots:

550ppm:50%chanceof3oC,but1/6chanceof2oC.Lucky!

450ppm:50%chanceof2oC,but1/6chanceof3oC.Unlucky!

Warming

Concen

tration

Twitchyworld

Calmworld

Thebestandworstoutcomesofouremissionsareverydifferent.However,awellknownclimatescienceleader,whenIsaid,“Wecouldbelucky,”replied:“Youmustneversaythat.”

*3.“TailsScience”mustgetgreaterpriority.

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1 meter 2 meters

4 meters 8 meters

Greenland ice sheet: 7 meters West Antarctic Ice Sheet: 5 meters

Reference pace for sea-level: +1 meter/century

Source: T. Knutson, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA. See: http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/climate_dynamics/climate_impact_webpage.html#section4

Sealevelrise:When?

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“Committedemissions”Futureemissionsinherentincurrentinvestments

Globalviewofelectricpowerfrom2012.Assumes40-yearlifeforpowerplants,updatedforretirementsandplant-lifeextensions.

Collaborator:SteveDavis.Source:DavisandSocolow,Env.ResearchLetters,2014

Remainingcommitment

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Remainingemissions,yearbyyear

Collaborator:SteveDavis.Source:DavisandSocolow,Env.ResearchLetters,2014

Globalremaining“committedemissions”fromthen-operatingpowerplants,1950–2012.(Assumesa40-yearlifetime.)

CHINA

Apreliminaryanalysisupdatedbyfouryears(to2016)shows355GtCO2ofremainingcommitments,thusacontinued4%/yeargrowth(DanTong,unpublished).

Total:300GtCO2

20121950

COALCHINAU.S.

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Committedemissionsfromnewbuildings

Shown:Yanjiao,China

Mostpower-plantelectronsgotobuildings.Lessdemandforheating,cooling,andappliances–fewerpowerplants.

*4.“Committedemissions”prioritizeslow-carbonindustrialization.

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Leapfrogging

Developingcountriesusedtobeunwillingtodosomethingbeforeitwasprovenintheindustrializedcountries.Theydidn’twanttobeguineapigs.Thisischanging.Forexample,Chinaisleapfroggingovertherestoftheworldwithhigh-voltagetransmission.

5.Thedevelopingworldwilldecidewhatkindofplanetweliveon.

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Onebillionhighemitters

Source:http://www.climatescienceandpolicy.eu/2009/11/afocus-on-individuals-can-guide-nations-towards-a-low-carbon-world/

1114

9 5

3 1

0.7 0.5

1.9 0.8

3.6 0.7

1.2billion“highemitters”in2030.

Binboundariesat2tCO2/yrand10tCO2/yrarethe2003percapitavaluesforBrazilandEU.Mosthighemittersarenot“rich.”

2003 2003-30

Collaborators:ShoibalChakravartyandMassimoTavoni.

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Wheredothehighemitterslive?

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

2030

2003

2-10

<2

0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00%

2030

2003

USA otherOECD China othernonOECD

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

2030

2003

>10

Morethanhalfofthe2030highemittersareprojectedtoliveoutsidetheOECD.

Thehigh-emitterlifestyleissimilaracrosstheworld.Bestpracticespioneeredinonecountrycanspread.

The“Paris”processcanhelp:participantsshowofftheirbestdishes.

6.“Paris,”apotluckdinner,canhelpdrivearacetothetop.

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Highemittersandabjectpoverty

Individual cap: without floor: 10.8 t CO2 with floor: 9.6 t CO2

1

The world’s poor do not need to be denied fossil fuels.

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“Solutions”

Therearestillmanyoptions.Isitalreadytimetodeclareawinner?Optionscanbemoredangerousthanclimatechange.

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Stabilizationwedges…in2004

2011KentuckyDerby,APPhoto/MattSlocum.https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/2011-kentucky-derby/7

Slidepair:courtesyofGretaShum,AndlingerCenter,PrincetonUniversity

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wind/solar

H2 for fuel CCS

nuclear

biological

efficient coal plants

gas for coal

end-use efficiency

storage!

Stabilizationwedges…in2018

MelbourneCup,TheForeignCorrespondents‘Club,HongKong.https://www.fcchk.org/event/melbourne-cup

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U.S.powerplants:Replacedbywhat?When?

Age:40.

Relicensing? Earlyretirement?

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WindPower:Low-OutputAnalysis(LOA)

A,B,C,andDmarkthefourlongestperiodswithwindpoweroutputbelow3GW,halfoftheannualaverage(6GW).Installedcapacity:17GW.

FigureandanalysiscourtesyofPedroHaro.

Windaccountedfor15%of2016ERCOT(roughly,Texas)electricityproduction.WindexpansioncouldbethwartedbyeventslikeA-D.

50%ofannualaverage

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OnlyDisalonglull.(A,B,orCareresponsestohighwinds.)

Windspeed(SanMarcos,TX)

FigureandanalysiscourtesyofPedroHaro.

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OnlyDisalonglull.(A,B,orCareresponsestohighwinds.)

FigureandanalysiscourtesyofPedroHaro.

Back-upwasprobablymostlynaturalgas.

Itseemsinevitablethatwindandsolarintermittencywillmakeusawareoftimeinnewwaysandwillincreaseourengagementwithnature.

*7.Solar-fossilandwind-fossilpackageswouldreducetheintermittencychallenge.Zero-carbonideologyisintheway.

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RapidSwitch:Howquicklycanchangeoccur?

Howquicklycansolarandwindgainmarketshare?Howquicklycancoallosemarketshare?

Whatlimitshowquicklysocialnormscanchange?Windandsolarintermittencywillmakeusawareoftimeinnewwaysandincreaseourengagementwithnature.Howstronglywillweresist?

Historyisuseful:Howquicklydidautomobilesdisplacehorses?Whyneitherfasternorslower?Whatgoeswrongwhenchangeisattemptedtooquickly?

8.“RapidSwitch”(thepaceofchange)isripeforacademicinquiry.

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Every“solution”isdangerous*.

EverystrategycanbeimplementedwellorpoorlyNuclearpower NuclearwarBiocarbon CompetingusesoflandGeoengineering Technologicalhegemony

“Cleancoal” Mining:workerandlandimpactsWindandsolar Unreliability Conservation Regimentation

Itisessentialtoidentifythe“conditionalities”thatmakeasolutionlessdangerous.

Riskmanagementreappears:Itispossibletoachieve2oCandregretdoingso.“Two-sidedreasoning”weighsboththethreatandthe“solutions.”

*IchoosethewordwithRioinmind.

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Conditionality for nuclear powerNuclearpoweriscoupledinevitablytonuclearweapons.Alas,inthepasttwodecades,nuclearweaponshavebecomemoredesired.Thus,aconditionforthedeploymentofnuclearpowertoaddressclimatechangeneedstobethatitleadsawayfrom,nottoward,nationalnuclearweaponsprograms.TheIrandealshowstheextenttowhichsovereigntymustbecompromisedtosevertheconnectionbetweennuclearpowerandnuclearweapons.ThelogicoftheIrandealpointstowardtheinternationalizationofnuclearpower–especiallythe“fuelcycle”–includingfortheU.S.

9.Anuclearwarisapoortradefortheslowingofclimatechange.

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Conditionality for biocarbon

Whatwillgowrongifwemoveheadlongtomaximizeglobalbiocarbonstockswithoutconditionalities?

Supposeyouwereaforesteroranagronomistinaworldwherethecarbonpricewasveryhigh.Youweretoldthatstoringcarbonwasyouronlyobjective.Whatwouldyoudo?Establishamonocrop?Pouronfertilizer?Beinventive.…

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Conditionality for biocarbon

Whatwillgowrongifwemoveheadlongtomaximizeglobalbiocarbonstockswithoutconditionalities?

Supposeyouwereaforesteroranagronomistinaworldwherethecarbonpricewasveryhigh.Youweretoldthatstoringcarbonwasyouronlyobjective.Whatwouldyoudo?Establishamonocrop?Pouronfertilizer?Beinventive.…

Now,changeroles.Youarethepolicymakerinthesameworld.Whatconditionalitieswouldyouplaceonthecarbonmarketforbiostocksintheinterestofelicitingactionsyouwouldwelcomeanddeterringoutcomesyouwoulddecry?

10.Thebiosphereisatriskat$100/tC02.

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GeoengineeringbyimitatingvolcanoesOnJune15,1991(threedaysafterthisphoto),Mt.Pinatuboinjected10milliontonsofsulfurintothestratosphere.

TheEarth’saveragesurfacetemperaturewas0.5oCcoolersixmonthslater,thenrebounded.

CoolingtheEarthdeliberatelybyperpetuallyinjectingsulfurparticlesintothestratosphereisanexampleof“geoengineering”(alsocalled“solarradiationmanagement”).

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EngineeredEarthInafullyengineeredplanet:

•  Theremaybenowayback.

•  Thereisnoobviouspoliticalprocessthatwillreconcilecontendinggoals.

•  Takingotherspeciesintoaccountwillcreateconflict;manyspeciesdependontheextremeeventswefindunpleasantandcostly.

11.Bewareofusinggeoengineeringtoremovehighsandlows;itwilleradicatetheevolutionarynichesofcountlessspecies.

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PatientEarth

“I will apply, for the benefit of the sick, all measures that are required, avoiding those twin traps of overtreatment and therapeutic nihilism.”

Hippocrates

*ModernversionoftheHippocraticoath,LouisLasagna,1964,http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/doctors/oath_modern.html

*12.Thelowestconceivablegreenhousetargets,achievableonlybycastingcautiontothewinds,arenotoptimal.

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Twelvetruths1.   WewishEarthwerelarger.2.   Judgmentsaboutwhichfossilfuelsare“unburnable”havenoprecedents.3.   *“TailsScience”mustgetgreaterpriority.

4.   *“Committedemissions”prioritizeslow-carbonindustrialization.5.   Thedevelopingworldwilldecidewhatkindofplanetweliveon.6.   “Paris,”apotluckdinner,canhelpdrivearacetothetop.

7.   *Solar-fossilandwind-fossilpackageswouldreducetheintermittencychallenge.Zero-carbonideologyisintheway.

8.   “RapidSwitch”(thepaceofchange)isripeforacademicinquiry.

9.   Anuclearwarisapoortradefortheslowingofclimatechange.10.  Thebiosphereisatriskat$100/tCO2.11.  Bewareofusinggeoengineeringtoremovehighsandlows;itwilleradicatethe

evolutionarynichesofcountlessspecies.12.  *Thelowestconceivablegreenhousetargets,achievableonlybycastingcaution

tothewinds,arenotoptimal.

Cansuchpointsofdeparture–andmanycomparableones–enableamoreconstructiveconversationaboutclimatechange?

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RememberwhatsupportingscienceinAmericalookedlike?

1st WH Astronomy Night for Kids 1st WH Science Fair

Honoring outstanding K-12 science teachers

Mathletes in the Oval Office

Visiting MIT’s Energy Lab

SlidefromJohnHoldren,December2017

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HomagetotheresearchcommunityItsvalues:Rigor,engagement,independence,globalreach,collegiality,irreverence,moralcompass.

Itsscholar-friends:JohnHarte,MarcRoss,ArtRosenfeld,FrankvonHippel,BobWilliams,StevePacala,andmanymore.

Itshomesforme:Harvard,LBNL,CERN,Yale,Princeton

Itsyoungpeople:undergrads,graduatestudents,post-docs.Theyreplenishthespirit(“it’suptous”).Theytakethebaton.

Whatwillbeintheirtalksin2068?


Decades of Dedication Cincinnati Zoo Gorillascincinnatizoo.org/system/assets/uploads/2019/10/Decades... · 2019-10-01 · Decades of Dedication – Cincinnati Zoo Gorillas Ron Evans

Decades of Dedication Cincinnati Zoo Gorillascincinnatizoo.org/system/assets/uploads/2019/10/Decades... · 2019-10-01 · Decades of Dedication – Cincinnati Zoo Gorillas Ron Evans

Decades Project

Decades Project

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WORLD’S MARINE … · Mass coral bleaching is driven by thermal stress • Small excursions above thresholds (1oC) result in bleaching • Basis

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WORLD’S MARINE … · Mass coral bleaching is driven by thermal stress • Small excursions above thresholds (1oC) result in bleaching • Basis

Across the Decades

Across the Decades

Decades & Designers

Decades & Designers

p z£Rô Rousectµ 1Oc eε≈1+εL Ï Ë Qe1 ε C=e ε−1≈(1+ε)−1=ε bIK ε 1Oc ε C≈ε 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Cauchy strain ε c Hencky strain

p z£Rô Rousectµ 1Oc eε≈1+εL Ï Ë Qe1 ε C=e ε−1≈(1+ε)−1=ε bIK ε 1Oc ε C≈ε 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Cauchy strain ε c Hencky strain

DANCING THROUGH DECADES

DANCING THROUGH DECADES

PEOPLE EVENTS HOW TO HAKE THE- O Prescribed ...ufdcimages.uflib.ufl.edu/UF/00/07/59/11/01132/00074.pdfeconomizing 7he 5Oc Dinner employed-by imper 3Oc writes Officers Cement SOUTH

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Decades Digipak

Decades Digipak

1970s decades project

1970s decades project

Decades Projects

Decades Projects

3oc mmontb omn - University of Nebraska–Lincoln · 2019. 2. 5. · nv5loricaV 3oc r mmontb omn rr VOL. XXXIV. PLATTSMOUTH, NEBRASKA, THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 3, 1916. NO. V i 1 i PREPARING

3oc mmontb omn - University of Nebraska–Lincoln · 2019. 2. 5. · nv5loricaV 3oc r mmontb omn rr VOL. XXXIV. PLATTSMOUTH, NEBRASKA, THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 3, 1916. NO. V i 1 i PREPARING

Four Decades - aicrp.icar.gov.in

Four Decades - aicrp.icar.gov.in

RMP 3 Decades

RMP 3 Decades

Decades Research

Decades Research

Experiment on Typhoon Intensity Chang in Coastal …typhooncommittee.org/docs/EXOTICCA/1oc/OC meeting... · 2015-10-22 · Experiment on Typhoon Intensity Chang in Coastal Area ...

Experiment on Typhoon Intensity Chang in Coastal …typhooncommittee.org/docs/EXOTICCA/1oc/OC meeting... · 2015-10-22 · Experiment on Typhoon Intensity Chang in Coastal Area ...

TUESDAY 15 - naturalresources.sa.gov.au · 2020 2050 Low global warming (0.4oC) High global warming (1oC) Low global warming (0.7oC) High global warming (2.9oC) ... selected using

TUESDAY 15 - naturalresources.sa.gov.au · 2020 2050 Low global warming (0.4oC) High global warming (1oC) Low global warming (0.7oC) High global warming (2.9oC) ... selected using

Decades of Disparity

Decades of Disparity

Decades Of Odisha

Decades Of Odisha