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Trends, Technologies, and Evolutions Metropolitan Networks
Transcript of Trends, Technologies, and Evolutions Metropolitan Networks
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 1
Metropolitan Networks: Metropolitan Networks:
Trends, Technologies, and EvolutionsTrends, Technologies, and Evolutions
Dr.Dr. Nasir GhaniNasir GhaniSenior Architect, Sorrento Networks IncSenior Architect, Sorrento Networks Inc
nghaninghani@@sorrentonetsorrentonet.com.com
Business Application SessionBusiness Application SessionIEEE ICC 2002IEEE ICC 2002
New York City, New York, May 1New York City, New York, May 1stst, 2002, 2002
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 2
OutlineOutline
�Background
�Emerging Trends
�Market Realities
�Solution Technologies
�Conclusions
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 3
BackgroundBackground� A brief “metro” taxonomy
• Spans very broad space: access/edge, metro/regional core• Interconnects end-user domains and long-haul• Entrenched legacy SONET/SDH (TDM) infrastructures
� Metro is becoming key operator focus• New and challenging paradigms give rise to opportunity• Complex setups, highest diversity (protocols, services)• Huge projected market size (> $4.0 billion by 2005):
Abundance of competing operators and vendors
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 4
Overall Network Taxonomy
BackgroundBackground
Metro Edge-Access Networks
10-50 km
Networked storage(Fibre Channel)
Mainframes(ESCON, FICON)
Circuit emulation(ATM, frame relay)
Legacy voice leased line(DS-n, OC-n/STM-n)
Cable videoxDSLCellular/wireless
(DS-n, OC-n/STM-n)Gigabit
EthernetEthernetLAN
Metro/Regional Core Networks
100-1000 kmOC-48/192 ITU-T G.709
Long-Haul Core Networks1000-10000 km
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 5
OutlineOutline
�Background
�Emerging Trends
�Market Realities
�Solution Technologies
�Conclusions
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 6
� Traffic growth remains strong• New services: LAN extension, VPN, SAN extension• Growth approx 80-120% per year, over 80% data by 2003
� Improving end-user access technologies• New technologies (DSL, cable, “next-gen” & fixed wireless)• Low-cost Gig Ethernet connectivity (fiber, cable, copper)
� Deregulation intensifies metro competition• Multiple players (RBOC/PTT, CLEC, ISP, cable, utility)• Long-haul builds complete, focus on expanding client base
Emerging TrendsEmerging Trends
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 7
Likely case
2000 200320022001 2004
Rel
ativ
e vo
lum
e
10
20
30
40
2005
North American Internet Traffic
Best case
Worst Case
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
'88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02e
Cost per gigabyte ($000)
Storage costs declining
02468
10121416
'95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01e '02e '03e
Disk drive capacity shipped (petabytes)
Storage consumption rising
Emerging TrendsEmerging Trends
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 8
� “Metro gap”: legacy bandwidth limitations• Single-channel fiber exhaust, stranded core capacity• Node terminal/fiber expansion very slow, unfeasible• Difficult to scale beyond OC-192 rates (10 Gbps)
� Additional limitations abound• Data “multi-layering” is very inefficient (ATM, FR):
Separate layers, limited service definitions• Legacy provisioning costs exceeding revenues• SAN services support is lacking (no standards)
Emerging TrendsEmerging Trends
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 9
Emerging TrendsEmerging TrendsHierarchical Metro Legacy Networks
Broadband DCS’s
Patch panels
Long-haul DWDMtransmission
WidebandDCS
OC-3/12 edgeSONET rings
OC-12 edge SONET rings
WidebandDCS
Patch panels
Telephony switchIP
OC-n interfaces
DS-n
DSLAM
Central office
Multiple “stacked” IOFSONET rings (OC-48/192)
Central office
Central officeLong-haul POP
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 10
OutlineOutline
�Background
�Emerging Trends
�Market Realities
�Solution Technologies
�Conclusions
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 11
Market RealitiesMarket Realities
� Extremely challenging fiscal conditions• Large equity/stock erosion, high operator debt levels• Mid-term “cap-ex crunch”, vendor/VC slow investment
� Operator survival strategy: evolution not revolution• Lower costs, grow revenues, maximize existing networks• Cautious upgrades, consolidation (incumbents, cable emerge)• Competition will spur spending (cost, differentiation)
� Equipment vendors must react• Lower prices, increase margins, diversify clients, profitability• “End-to-end” metro solutions, increased carrier selectivity
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 12
Source: Yahoo Finance
SteadyGrowth
SteadyGrowth
Market Stabilization
“Cap-Ex” Retrenchment
Accelerated Growth
The “Bubble” Legacy
Market RealitiesMarket Realities
Estimated spending(as per demand growth)Massive long-haul core
overbuilds, operators incur large debt
Debt reduction, market consolidation, focus on metro and edge/access
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041997 1998
Timeframe
Rel
ativ
e sp
endi
ng (U
.S. m
arke
t)
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 13
OutlineOutline
�Background
�Emerging Trends
�Market Realities
�Solution Technologies
�Conclusions
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 14
� New metro solutions are needed• Capacity/topology scalability (linear, ring, mesh)• Collapsed “multi-protocol” infrastructures• Rapid, flexible provisioning, “carrier-class” support• Access/core hierarchies remain (cost, operational reasons)
� Lowering operator cost is key• Initial first cost, achieve “pay-as-you-grow”• “Price-per-port” reduction vs. legacy TDM (>20%)• Reduced operations, maintenance, co-location costs
Solution TechnologiesSolution Technologies
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 15
� A case for metro/regional core DWDM• Scalability, service transparency, optical amplification• Superior gigabit economics, declining costs (≈20% / year)
� Static “1st/2nd generation” metro DWDM• Pt-to-pt transmission (fiber-relief), static add-drop (linear/ring)• Modular “right-sizing” lowers first cost, pair revenue/growth• Solid traction, strong growth (≈$2.0 billion by 2005)
� Later evolve to “3rd generation” dynamic DWDM• Intelligent control, “soft-optics” (switching, tuning, GMPLS)• High-capacity, rapid provisioning (shared rings, mesh)• Deployment will take time (maturity, cost, applications)
Solution Technologies: Metro CoreSolution Technologies: Metro Core
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 16
DWDM transmission
1st Generation
SONETOC-48/192
WDM
SONETOC-3/12
ADM
Point-to-point capacity expansion
FixedOADM
DCS
UPSR ring(16-32 λ)
Fixed filtering add/drop
2nd GenerationStatic linear/ring
1999-2004100’s Gb/s-Tb/s
Days
Dynamic OADM/OXC
3rd Generation
OXC
BLSR ring(40-80 λ)
Dynamic wavelength-provisioning ring/mesh
2004-201010-100’s Tb/s
Minutes-seconds
4th Generation
OPS/OXC
Circuit/packet nodes
Hybrid optical packet/circuit switching
2010+Petabitsms-ns
TimelineNetwork Capacity
Lambda Timescales
Solution Technologies: Metro CoreSolution Technologies: Metro Core
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 17
� Electronics for “fine-granularity” service control• Client diversity, “sub-rate” lambda grooming lowers costs• Optics will permeate (interfaces, capacity expansion)• Very large market (even exceeding metro core DWDM)
� New optical edge device (OED) solutions• “Re-optimize” use of existing capacity :
- “Next-generation SONET/SDH” (NGS)/MSPP- Ethernet switching, resilient packet ring (RPR)
• Add new capacity and improve utilization:Multi-service optics (xWDM-based solutions)
Solution Technologies: Edge/AccessSolution Technologies: Edge/Access
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 18
� “Next-generation SONET/SDH” (NGS)• Re-use TDM ubiquity, improve data/SAN support (VC, GFP)• Favorable as interim incumbent solution (familiarity)
� “Next-gen. Ethernet”: carrier-grade data transport• Ethernet switching uses MPLS QoS, protection schemes• RPR optimizes for “packet rings” (new MAC, CoS, protection)
� Multi-service optics: xWDM w. smart interfaces• Unamplified optics, optimized for small channel counts• CWDM optics further savings (lasers, filters, operations)• Add “thin mux” blades for TDM/data/SAN aggregation
Solution Technologies: Edge/AccessSolution Technologies: Edge/Access
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 19
Today’s Metro COToday’s Metro CO
ADMADMADMADM
ADMADM
RPR MAC
Ethernet RPREthernet RPR
OC-48OC-192
10/100 Eth
Gig Eth IP
Map all services to Ethernet packets
DWDM
IP
MultiMulti--Service ProvisioningService Provisioning
ATM
DCS ADM
E1,DS3/E3STM-n
ADM
NextNext--Gen SONET/SDHGen SONET/SDH
DCSDCSE1,DS3/E3
OC-n10/100/GE
10/100/GEGig Eth
Map all services to SONET/SDH frames
OC-48OC-192
DWDM
Map all services to transparent optics
MultiMulti--Service OpticsService OpticsGig EthSTM-n
FICON/ESCONFiber Channel
Cable videoTransponder
DWDM
FR
Solution Technologies: Edge/AccessSolution Technologies: Edge/Access
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 20
OutlineOutline
�Background
�Emerging Trends
�Market Realities
�Solution Technologies
�Conclusions
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 21
ConclusionsConclusions� Key metro market characteristics
• Broad domains, rising traffic, client/service diversity• Huge installed legacy base increasing costs:
Low scalability, service inflexibility, lengthy provisioning• Large market opportunity, very strong competition
� Future evolutions• Optics scalability/transparency, “future-proof” growth• Edge multiplexing for multi-service efficiency• Consolidation, highly cost-sensitized/staged migrations
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 22
� Mr. Andrew Knott, Vice President of Marketing, White Rock Networks Inc
� Mr. Atul Shinde, Co-Founder, Luminous Networks Inc
� Mr. Ronald J. Kline, Senior Analyst, Metro & Long-Haul Transport, RHK Inc
� Dr. Hasan Imam, Partner and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Wireline & Wireless Equipment, Thomas Weisel Partners, LLC
Invited Guest SpeakersInvited Guest Speakers
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Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 23
Further ReadingFurther Reading
� N. Ghani, J. Pan, X. Cheng, “Metropolitan Optical Networks”, Optical Fiber Telecommunications (OFT) IV, Academic Press, 2002, pp. 329-403.
� B. Van Steen, “Optical Networks: North American Metro Forecast Update,” RHK Metro Market Forecast Report, February 2002.