Trends in Travel and Implications - CUTR in Travel and Implications CUTR Webinar Series March 10,...

Trends in Travel and Implicationsp

CUTR Webinar SeriesMarch 10, 2011

St E P l i PhD Steven E. Polzin, PhD. Center for Urban Transportation ResearchUniversity of South Florida

Steven E. Polzin

BSCE University of Wisconsin MadisonMSCE & PhD Northwestern UniversityMSCE & PhD Northwestern University

Greater Cleveland Regional Transit Authority 1980-1984Dallas Area Transit Authority 1984-1988 Center for Urban Transit Research 1988-present

Numerous TRB and APTA committees Journal of Public Transportation, Editorial Board Transportation, Editorial Board HART Board 1999-2006, 2008 - presentHillsborough County Metropolitan Planning Organization Board 2003-2005Produced the long-range travel demand forecast model for the Congressional National Surface

Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission in 2007

2The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are not meant to represent positions of CUTR, USF, or HART.

Di l iDisclaimerWe haven’t been able to predictp Who will win the next election, Which movie or TV show will be popular, What will be the hot Christmas gift, or, Which stocks (if any) will do well this year.

The level of understanding and the amount of data di t l b h i h b b tt tregarding travel behavior has never been better, yet we

shouldn’t apologize for uncertainty regarding future travel forecastsforecasts.

But we should plan for uncertainty.

What Share of Travel is for Work?

Less Than 20%

4

What Share of Florida H h ld H NHouseholds Have No

Workers?

About 30%

5

What is the Average Commute time inCommute time in Florida?

6About 26 Minutes

What Share of Travel is on Transit in Florida?Transit in Florida?

About 1%

7

About 1%

liOutlineh f l h Theory of Travel Behavior

Trends and Future Travel Demand?

Key Implications

Social and Economic Interactions CreateSocial and Economic Interactions CreateSocial and Economic Interactions Create Social and Economic Interactions Create Demand for TravelDemand for Travel

Growth in Specialization in Growth in Time

Income

Knowledge

Employment

Consumption Person Travel

CommerceKnowledge Social relationships

Time use Communication

Polzin, CUTR 2010

Conceptual Framework for Thinking About Travel Demandp g

Legal/Political Climate Culture Technology Security Economy

Socio-Demographic ConditionsHousehold/Person Characteristics

Income/wealth levels and distribution Age/activity level

Business, Governance, Institutional Context

Scale of activity concentration Economic structure of service delivery

Travel Demand Local person travel Tourism/long trips

Culture/values Racial/ethnic composition Immigration status/tenure Gender Family/household composition

Travel Impacts:1. Change trip frequency2. Change destination3. Change Mode

Land Use Pattern

Freight Commercial Travel

Housing location

Transportation Supply/Performance

4. Change Path

Regional/national distribution Density Mix of land uses Urban form Urban design

C ti f d l t

Modal Availability

Modal Performance

o Costo Speed/congestiono Safety security Contiguousness of development o Safety, securityo Reliabilityo Convenienceo Image, etc.o Multi-tasking opportunities

Polzin, CUTR 2009

Wh t i Ch i ?What is Changing?Demographic

Othg p

• aging population• saturation of female labor force

participation• changing household composition

Other• environment/climate concerns• growing congestion • evolving technology impacting travelchanging household composition

• reduced immigration• slowing migration• exhaustion of suburbanization?

g gy p g• etc.

Economic• high unemployment• declining wealthdeclining wealth• polarization in income distribution• higher fuel prices and price uncertainty• globalization

hift f i i t i ff d bt

“Without data, you're just another person with an opinion."

• shift from incurring to paying off debt

I t l A l Ch i VMTIncremental Annual Change in VMT120 000

80,000

120,000

40,000

000)

0

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010Mile

s (0

00,0

-80,000

-40,000

-120,000

,

P C it VMTPer Capita VMT10,5003,500,000

10,000

,

3,000,000

, ,

9,500

2,000,000

2,500,000

al VMT

(000,000)

VMT

8,500

9,000

1 000 000

1,500,000

pita Ann

ua

Total V

MT

VMT

VMT per capita

8,000500,000

1,000,000

Per C

a

7,5000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

T ip Rate and LengthTrip Rate and Length1800

1568

1385 201400

1600

1800

+

1067

1054

1371 1449

151000

1200

400

ngth

perPerson 5+

1067

9.47 8 68 9.29 9.00

10.78

9.52

10

600

800

Trip Len

nnua

l Trips p

9.47 8.68 9.00

5

200

400

An

00

1977 1983 1990 Adj. 1995 2001 2008

NPTS and NHTS Work Trip WalkingNPTS and NHTS Work Trip Walking Mode Shares

19834.50% 19905%

6%

19695.00%

19774.60% 1983

4.10% 19901995

2 60%

19904.00%

20012.92% 2008

4%

to W

ork

Walk is 10.95% of all trips in 2008

% 19903.70%

2.60%

20012 81%

20082.82%

1995

3.03%

2%

3%

ent W

alki

ng

2.81%19952.30%

1%

2%

Perc

e

Work Trip "Usual Mode"

Work Trip Actual Mode

0%

p

Census/ACS Work Trip PercentCensus/ACS Work Trip Percent Walking Mode Share

10.40%

10%

12%

7.40%8%

10%

Wor

k

5.60%3.90%

2 90%4%

6%

Wal

king

to W

2009 ACS2.90%

2.86%2%

4%

Perc

ent

0%1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

h lVehicle Occupancies - NHTS2 20

1.90 1.902.00

2.20Work Trip All Trips

1.801.70

1 9

1.67

1.60

1.80

cy

1.401 30 1 30

1.59 1.64

1.40

Occ

upan

c

1.30 1.30

1.20 1.20 1.201.13

1.00

1.20

0.801969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

l d hCarpooling Mode Share

20.4% 19 7%

25%

19.7%

13 4%15%

20%

Wor

k

13.4% 12.2%

10 7%10%

15%

pool

ing

to

10.7%

5%

erce

nt C

arp

0%1970 1980 1990 2000 2008

Pe

Transit Mode Share Trends10%

Census/ACS Journey to Work, Usual Mode

Transit Mode Share Trends

8.90%

8%

9% NPTS/NHTS Work Trips, Survey Day

NPTS/NHTS All Trips

NHTS 2001 Adjusted

NHTS W k T i W k T i U l M d6.40%

5.30%5.11%

5 05%5.13%

5%

6%

7%

nsit

NHTS Work Trip, Work Trip Usual Mode

4.70%4.99%4.60%

3.56%3.67%

3.68%

5.05%

3%

4%

5%

rcen

t on

Tran

3.40%

2.70% 2.70% 2.20% 1.81% 1.56%1.92%

1.76%

1%

2%

3%

Pe

0%

1%

Vehicle AvailabilityVehicle Availability

1 6

1.4

1.6

1

1.2

s pe

r

0.6

0.8

Vehi

cles

0.2

0.4Vehicles per worker

Vehicles per person 16 and older

Vehicles per person

V hi l d i01969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Vehicles per driver

Declining Zero Vehicle HouseholdsDeclining Zero-Vehicle Households25%

20%

15%

Per

cent

5%

10%

P

NPTS/NHTS C ACS

0%

5% NPTS/NHTS Census ACS

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: CUTR analysis of NHTS ,NPTS,U.S. Census Bureau and 2002-09 ACS

Person Miles of Travel per HourPerson Miles of Travel per Hour (speed, all trips)

31.0 30.330

35

28.9 28.330.9

28.325

30

PH

15

20MP

5

10

01977 1983 1990 adj. 1995 2001 2008

Where Did the VMT Go?2001-2008

Population……………………………... +8.7%

P VMT 1 6%Person VMT …………………………... -1.6%

VMT/Population……………...……….. -10.4%

Trip Rate…………………….………..… -4.4%

Trip Length ………………….………..… -6.2%

SOV Share……………………….…..… +6.4%

Travel Speed ………………….….…..… -6.7%

23

lTime Spent in Travel per Day

71.2

84.5

76.480

90

49.2 62.8

6

50

60

70

s

30

40

50

Min

utes

10

20

30

01983 1990 adj. 1995 2001 2008

VMT/Capita Median Income HouseholdVMT/Capita, Median Income, Household Wealth and Annual Vehicle Sales

Percentage ChangePercentage Change

50%

60%Annual VMT % Change

Median Income Change

30%

40% 2009 DollarsAnnual Vehicle Sales ChangeHousehold Wealth

0%

10%

20%

-20%

-10%

0%

-30%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

PMT and VMT pe Capita b AgePMT and VMT per Capita by Age25000

20000

2001 Per Capita VMT 2001 Per Capita PMT

2008 Per Capita VMT 2008 Per Capita PMT

15000

5000

10000

0

5000

hSocio-Demographic IssuesC t l F k f Thi ki Ab t T l D d

Aging population Different young adult

Conceptual Framework for Thinking About Travel Demand


Income/wealth levels and distribution




behaviors Locked in homes/less

mobileLand Use Pattern

Travel Demand Local person travel Tourism/long trips Freight Commercial Travel

Age/activity level Culture/values Racial/ethnic composition Immigration status/tenure Gender Family/household composition Housing location

T t ti S l /P f

Economic structure of service delivery

Travel Impacts:1. Change trip frequency2. Change destination3. Change Mode4. Change Path

mobile Income/wealth impact

Regional/national distribution Density Mix of land uses Urban form Urban design Contiguousness of development

Transportation Supply/Performance Modal Availability

Modal Performance

o Costo Speed/congestiono Safety, securityo Reliabilityo Convenienceo Image, etc.o Multi-tasking opportunities

Polzin CUTR 2009Polzin, CUTR 2009

System Supply IssuesSystem Supply Issues

l Future system supply and speedE d th



Income/wealth levels and distribution



Scale of activity concentration

Energy and other costs


Income/wealth levels and distribution Age/activity level Culture/values Racial/ethnic composition Immigration status/tenure Gender Family/household composition Housing location

Economic structure of service delivery


Land Use Pattern Regional/national distribution Density Mix of land uses Urban form Urban design Contiguousness of development


Modal Performance

o Costo Speed/congestiono Safety, securityo Reliabilityo Convenienceo Image, etc.g ,o Multi-tasking opportunities

Polzin, CUTR 2009

Impact of Fuel Prices on TravelImpact of Fuel Prices on Travel

Social, Fuel PriceSocial, Political & EconomicConditions

Fuel Price

Transit:Auto Travel Cost:Fuel Supply

Transit:• Availability• Cost• Time

Auto Travel Cost:• Vehicle type• Trip length• Occupancy

Public Attitudes: • Climate change

Trip Rate, Length and Mode

g• Energy Independence• Environment

Vehicle Ownership

Location ChoicesChoice

dLand Use Issues Work trip commute appears Conceptual Framework for Thinking About Travel Demand p pp

to be well under 20% of trips and travel.



Income/wealth levels and distribution Age/activity level Culture/values Racial/ethnic composition




T l I t

Nearly 30% of households have no workers or no commuters (workers work at

Land Use Pattern Regional/national distribution Density Mix of land uses Urban form


Racial/ethnic composition Immigration status/tenure Gender Family/household composition Housing location


Modal Performance

o Cost


commuters (workers work at home).

Fees homestead tax rules

Urban design Contiguousness of development

o Speed/congestiono Safety, securityo Reliabilityo Convenienceo Image, etc.o Multi-tasking opportunities

Polzin, CUTR 2009

Fees, homestead tax rules, upside down mortgages, lack of portability of mortgages, t i d i tetc. impede moving to

minimize work trip length.

Social Professional andSocial, Professional, and Commerce Relationships are Less

Place BasedPlace Based Improved transportation (speed, cost, safety, choice) Improved communications Shorter tenure (jobs and housing) Greater work force participation (social relationships less

likely to be made over the picket fence or on the front porch)

Government/business replacing neighbors as safety net Economy of scale factors challenge neighborhood-scale

b i d t ibusinesses and enterprises. (Technology and government regulation enhance the strength of economy of scale)

i i l d i ib iActivity Scale and Distribution The average size of an elementary school in the U S has The average size of an elementary school in the U.S. has

grown from 155 students in 1950 to 445 in 2008.

There are 6000 fewer grocery stores in America in 2010 There are 6000 fewer grocery stores in America in 2010 compared to 2001.

I 1970 th 34 h it l illi I In 1970, there were 34 hospitals per million persons. In 2005 there were 24.

In 1970, there were 30,800 car dealerships. In 2008 there were 20,770. In 2011 there will be far fewer.

Impact of DensitImpact of DensityFuture high density residents may Future high density residents may not behave as in the pastnot behave as in the pastnot behave as in the pastnot behave as in the past

Where We Live and WhereWhere We Live and Where We’d Like to Live

CurrentIdealby community type

Small Town, 26%

City, 31%

Small Town, 30%

City, 23%

Suburb, 26%Rural Area,

16%

Suburb, 25%

Rural Area, 21%

Note: “Don’t know/Refused” responses are not reported

Small Town Suburb Rural Area City

Source: Pew Research Center, January 2009

“They said we need high

“No, they said we need public transit to make need high

density to make public transit

phigh density work.”

work. “

35

Th s F t e T a el isThus Future Travel is:T l D iTravel Desire• Population• Real Income• Wealth• Value of Timea ue o e

System Supply• Modes• Speeds

Land Use• Density

Speeds• Costs

Energy Costs/

• Density• Mix

Energy Costs/Other Costs

Thank YouThank You

Steven E. Polzin, Ph.D.Steven E. Polzin, [email protected]@cutr.usf.edu813813--974974--9849 (w)9849 (w)813813--416416--7517 (c)7517 (c)

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