Trends in the Global Markets for Imaging Supplies pres at Remax 2006.pdfWorldwide color laser...
Transcript of Trends in the Global Markets for Imaging Supplies pres at Remax 2006.pdfWorldwide color laser...
Trends in the Global Markets for Imaging Supplies
Charlie BrewerManaging Editor
The Hard Copy Supplies Journal
April 6, 2006 Remax Barcelona 2006
2© Lyra Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Lyra Research
35 employees, 20 of whom are analysts, researchers, and editorsOver 2,000 clients in 40 countries, representing all sectors of the imaging industry (printer hardware, marking materials, media, components, chemicals, software) plus many firms interested in the imaging industry (finance, advertising, PR)Headquarters in Newton, MassachusettsStaff, research partners, and sales agents around the world
Japan (JDS)Korea (Mindbranch Korea)China (ACMR)Switzerland (InfoSource S.A.)U.K. (Context, Recycler magazine)U.S. (Current Analysis/ARS, Recharger Magazine)
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Lyra Research’s Expertise:Market Research, Sizing, and Analysis
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How Lyra Builds a Forecast Model: Desktop Ink
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Agenda
Ink jet printer market trends and aftermarket implicationsWorldwide ink jet printer/cartridge market forecastAftermarket share of ink jet cartridge marketsTrends in supply of empty cartridges
Laser printer market trends and aftermarket implicationsWorldwide monochrome laser printer/cartridge market forecast and trendsWorldwide color laser printer/cartridge market forecast and trendsAftermarket share of toner cartridge markets
Conclusions and wrap-up
The Ink Jet Cartridge Market
7© Lyra Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Trends in the Ink Jet Printer Market
Faster, better, cheaper hardwareCanon PIXMA MP800—$299, 1 pl drop size, 9,600 × 2,400 dpiEpson Stylus C88—$79, 22/12 ppmHP Officejet Pro K550—$199, 37/33 ppm (black/color)
MFPs (all-in-ones) remain popular; low-end units flourishCanon PIXMA MP150—$89.99, Lexmark X7350—$149
Separate ink tanksMarket requirement for photo printers and business printersMost Epson and Canon models and more HP models (Photosmart 8250,Officejet Pro K550, Business Inkjet series)
New focus on advanced inksOEMs stress brands
HP Vivera, Canon ChromaLife 100, Epson DuraBrite Ultra, Lexmark EvercolorMore focus on performance and archivability
OEMs begin using Wilhelm Imaging Research numbers for suppliesPromote lightfastness
Pigmented color inks (Epson UltraChrome, new Vivera SKUs from HP, Canon’s new Lucia brand)
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Trends in the Ink Jet Printer Market (continued)
Other new consumables tactics and strategies Low-cost “standard” cartridges; higher-cost, high-yield cartridges
Average price of ink cartridges decreasing but price per ml increasingMore bundles
Multipacks—CMYK bundles, K twin-packsPhoto paper and ink SKUs
OEMs aggressive in courtsCanon v. PelikanEpson takes on manufacturers and North American distributors HP files complaints over infringing inks
Empties harder to find and more expensiveMore sophisticated reclamation schemesEnd users continue to resist recycling
Retail refill shops growing at a high rate
9© Lyra Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Implications for the Aftermarket:Good News and Bad News
Thanks to the hardware, demand for ink SKUs continues to growTrend toward MFPs will increase demand for ink (MFP users print more)Low-priced printers mean OEMs will fight hard for share of supplies marketIndividual tanks are easier to produce but there is a downside
OEM SKUs can be priced lowerNozzle clogs due to ink impurities can be disastrous on printers with permanent print heads
More advanced branded inksColor matching must be precise or photos come out off-colorConsumers will demand more from inksOEMs stress Wilhelm Imaging numbers
Low-cost cartridges and tanks mean lower margins for remanufacturersRetail refill shops will raise the visibility of aftermarket
10© Lyra Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Huge Ink Jet InstalledBase Drives Supplies Sales
Worldwide Installed Base of Ink Jet Printers,2004–2009
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Inst
alle
d ba
se (i
n m
illion
s of
uni
ts) Ink jet MFPs (CAGR=24.9%)
Photo-specialty ink jets (CAGR=17%)Single-function ink jets (CAGR=–10.5%)
Source: Lyra Research, Inc., Hard Copy Industry Advisory Service, Second-Half 2005 Forecast
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Growth in Cartridge MarketExceeds Growth in Installed Base
Worldwide Ink Jet Cartridge Shipments and Revenue, 2004–2009
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Shi
pmen
ts (i
n m
illion
s of
uni
ts)
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
Rev
enue
(in
billio
ns o
f U.S
. dol
lars
)
Shipments (CAGR=13.4%)Revenue (right axis)
Source: Lyra Research, Inc., Hard Copy Supplies Advisory Service, Second-Half 2005 Forecast
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Expensive Empties
Pricing Trend Lines for Select Empties Over €7Sept. 2005 and March 2006
€ 6.75
€ 7.25
€ 7.75
€ 8.25
€ 8.75
Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06
Source: The Recycler Magazine
Lex 10N00016
Lex 10N00026
Lex 18L0042
Lex 10N0227
Lex 10N0217
Lex12A1980/85HP C8728AN
HP C6657AN
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End Users Are Not Helping the Empties Supply
How Respondents Dispose of Ink Jet Cartridges
57%48% 51%
7%
50%36%
47% 44%
47%
3%5%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
UK, n=161 France, n=164 Germany, n=161 All, n=486
Per
cent
of r
espo
nden
ts
Return to empties broker or remanufacturerReturn to OEMThrow them away
Source: Lyra Research, Inc., 2006 Western European Consumer Survey
14© Lyra Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Aftermarket Continues to Gain Share
Aftermarket Share of Worldwide Ink Cartridge Market, 2002–2009
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mar
ket s
hare
Total aftermarket share of unit shipments (CAGR=5.1%)Reman and compatible share of unit shipments (CAGR=3.4%)
Refill shops and kits share of unit shipments (CAGR=12.8%)Total aftermarket share of revenue (CAGR=5.4%)
Note: CAGRs are for 2004–2009
Source: Lyra Research, Inc., Hard Copy Supplies Advisory Service,
Second-Half 2005 Forecast
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Ink Cartridge Refill Shops Gaining Share in EMEA
Aftermarket Share of EMEA Ink Cartridge Market2002-2009
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mar
ket s
hare
Remans and compatiblesRefill shops and kitsTotal EMEA aftermarket share
Source: Lyra Research, Inc., Hard Copy Supplies Advisory Service,
Second-Half 2005 Forecast
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Conclusions: Ink Jet Printer Supplies Market
Worldwide ink cartridge market is bigger than the market for monochrome and color toner cartridges combinedDemand for ink cartridges is higher than growth in the installed base but SKUs face margin pressures Branded inks, separate tanks, and new pricing strategies all pose challenges for the aftermarketEnd users increasingly demand high-performance ink setsOEMs continue to aggressively defend their patentsThe availability of empties will remain a problemThe aftermarket will continue to gain market share, but the fastest-growing segment is refill shops
The Toner Cartridge Market
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Trends in the Laser Printer Market
Shipments of single-function monochrome laser printers are flat or decliningIncreasing print speeds
Workgroup printers now range from 25 to 55 ppmPersonal printers range from 12 to 22 ppm
Low price points driving demand
Print quality is first-rateAll printers are 600 dpi minimum; most are betterPolymerized toners used in most color machines and many monochrome devices
The number of color devices is growing rapidlyMFPs are in demand
Shipments of monochrome MFPs are increasingCopier companies are entering the market for low-priced MFPs, placing products in retail channels
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Effects on Remanufacturing Industry
Overall monochrome remains flatColor continues to gain ground
“Convenience color” unitsMore machines employ polymerized color toners
Technical challenges—color matching, toner formulae, etc.Proper toner is very important
User perceptions of colorTrend toward MFPs
MFPs use up to 60 percent more toner annually per deviceColor MFPs with low monochrome cost per page
Dealers using cost-per-page business modelService opportunity
Faster speedsMore precision required
Better print qualityMore precision required along with proper toners
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Monochrome Laser Printer Shipments Slowing, but Installed Base Still Ramping Up
Worldwide Shipments and Growth in the Installed Base of Monochrome Laser Printers and MFPs,
2004–2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Shi
pmen
ts (i
n m
illion
s of
uni
ts) Installed base Shipments
Source: Lyra Research Inc.,Hard Copy Industry Advisory Service, Second-Half 2005 Forecast
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Worldwide Laser Printer Installed Base:Color versus Monochrome
Worldwide Laser Printer Installed Base: Color versus Monochrome, 2004–2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Inst
alle
d ba
se (i
n m
illio
ns o
f uni
ts)
Color
Monochrome
Source: Lyra Research Inc.,Hard Copy Industry Advisory Service, Second-Half 2005 Forecast
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Major Factors Influencing theMonochrome Installed Base
Product reliabilityOlder printers are very reliablePersonal units have low volumes
New printers have few differentiating featuresLow-cost color MFPsInk jet printers
Increasingly targeting office users
Color laser substitution“Monochrome printers with color capability,” e.g., HP Color LaserJet 3000, Dell 3100cn, etc.
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Trends in the Toner Cartridge Market
Market predominately monochrome, but shift to color is speeding upUsers are printing more, and page coverage is higher
More MFPs fuel more outputDemand for toner cartridges exceeds demand for printers
Demand for aftermarket cartridges will continue to increase as long as quality is maintained and OEM prices stay high
Remanufacturers will continue to gain market shareKey issues for remanufacturers are pricing, quality, brand strength, and channels of distribution
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Installed Base Drives Sale of Supplies
Worldwide Monochrome Toner Cartridge Shipments and Revenue, 2004–2009
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Shi
pmen
ts (i
n m
illio
ns o
f uni
ts)
$16
$17
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
Rev
enue
(in
billi
ons
of U
.S. d
olla
rs)Shipments
Revenue (right axis)
Source: Lyra Research, Inc.,Hard Copy Supplies Advisory Service, Second-Half 2005 Forecast
25© Lyra Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Aftermarket Continues to Grow
Worldwide Monochrome Toner Cartridge Shipments: Aftermarket Shipments and Share,
2002–2009
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Shi
pmen
ts (i
n m
illio
ns o
f uni
ts)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Afte
rmar
ket’s
sha
re o
f to
tal c
artri
dge
ship
men
ts
Aftermarket shipments
Aftermarket share (right axis)
Source: Lyra Research, Inc.,Hard Copy Supplies Advisory Service, Second-Half 2005 Forecast
26© Lyra Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
MFPs Offer Aftermarket Opportunities
MFPs use between 20 and 60 percent more toner annually than single-function printers
According to new report from The Recycler and Lyra Research
MFPs offer service opportunitiesOperate at higher duty cycles and have more electromechanical parts
The installed base of monochrome MFPs is growing while the installed base of monochrome single-function printers is decliningAlthough only about 16 percent of all personal monochrome laser devices are MFPs, 25 percent of all cartridges consumed by personal monochrome lasers are used in MFPsThe installed base of convenience color MFPs is growing at an 82percent CAGR
27© Lyra Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Personal MFPs Use More Toner
Annual Cartridges Used By Type of Personal Monochrome Device
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Car
tridg
es U
sed
Ann
ually
Annual Cartridges Per Personal PrinterAnnual Cartridges Per Personal MFP
Source: Lyra Research, Inc.,Hard Copy Supplies Advisory Service, Second-Half 2005 Forecast
28© Lyra Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Healthy Growth in Color Laser Printer Market
Worldwide Color Laser Printer Shipments and Revenue, 2004–2009
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Shi
pmen
ts (i
n m
illio
ns o
f uni
ts)
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
Rev
enue
(in
billi
ons
of U
.S. d
olla
rs)
ShipmentsRevenue (right axis)
Source: Lyra Research, Inc.,Hard Copy Industry Advisory Service, Second-Half 2005 Forecast
29© Lyra Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Trend toward Color MFPs
Worldwide Shipments of Color Laser Devices by Product Segment, 2004 versus 2009
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2004 (1.4 million units)
2009 (6.9 million units)
Sha
re o
f shi
pmen
ts
Production colorcopiers/MFPs*Full-time office colorcopiers/MFPsConvenience colorcopiers/MFPs Color laser printers
Source: Lyra Research, Inc.,Hard Copy Industry Advisory Service,
Second-Half 2005 Forecast*Share of shipments too small to be shown in figure
30© Lyra Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Installed Base of Color Devices Growing at Double-Digit Rates
Growth in Worldwide Installed Base of Color Devices, 2004–2009
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Inst
alle
d ba
se (i
n m
illio
ns o
f uni
ts)
Color copier/MFP installed base
Color workgroup installed base
Source: Lyra Research, Inc.,Hard Copy Industry Advisory Service, Second-Half 2005 Forecast
31© Lyra Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Color Is a Small Portion of Total Pages Printed
Worldwide Plain-Paper Output: Color-Capable versus Monochrome-Only Devices, 2002–2009
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Num
ber o
f pag
es o
utpu
t (in
trill
ions
)
Pages via color-capable devicePages via monochrome-only device
Source: Lyra Research, Inc.,Hard Copy Supplies Advisory Service, Second-Half 2005 Forecast
32© Lyra Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Big Iron Prints the Big Volumes
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Color Is Growing as Part of Supplies Revenue
Worldwide Revenue from Sales of Color and Monochrome Toner Cartridges, 2004–2009
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Rev
enue
(in
billi
ons
of U
.S. d
olla
rs) Monochrome cartridge revenue
Color cartridge revenue
Source: Lyra Research, Inc.,Hard Copy Supplies Advisory Service, Second-Half 2005 Forecast
34© Lyra Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Very Healthy Growth inColor Toner Cartridge Market
Worldwide Color Laser Cartridge Shipments and Revenue, 2004–2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Shi
pmen
ts (i
n m
illio
ns o
f uni
ts)
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
Rev
enue
(in
billi
ons
of U
.S. d
olla
rs)Shipments
Revenue
Source: Lyra Research, Inc.,Hard Copy Supplies Advisory Service, Second-Half 2005 Forecast
35© Lyra Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Aftermarket Beginning to Gain Share in Color
Worldwide Aftermarket and OEM Color Laser Cartridge Shipments and Aftermarket Share,
2002–2009
0
1020
3040
50
6070
8090
100
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
S
Shi
pmen
ts (i
n m
illio
ns o
f uni
ts)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Afte
rmar
ket s
hare
of s
hipm
ents
OEM shipmentsAftermarket shipmentsAftermarket share (right axis)
Source: Lyra Research, Inc.,Hard Copy Supplies Advisory Service, Second-Half 2005 Forecast
36© Lyra Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Factors Influencing Aftermarket Share
Availability of compatible tonerNew suppliers are coming online
Xerox and LG Chem
Color matching is an issue especially in the graphic-arts market More office users have color units and they tend to be less demanding
Technical issuesChips, complex cartridges, etc.
User reluctanceUsers remain more critical of color print quality than they are of monochrome print quality
Availability of empties
37© Lyra Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Aftermarket Share in EMEA Reflects Worldwide Trend
Aftermarket Share of EMEA Toner Cartridge Market2004–2009
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mar
ket s
hare
Mono Toner Cartridges Color Toner Cartridges
Source: Lyra Research, Inc., Hard Copy Supplies Advisory Service,
Second-Half 2005 Forecast
38© Lyra Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Conclusions: Laser Printer Supplies Market
Monochrome laser printers shipments are declining, but the installed base is huge
Installed base growing as shipments declineColor and MFPs on the rise
Copier business model growing“Monochrome” MFPs with color capability
Monochrome cartridge demand will grow through 2008Aftermarket will continue to grow share in monochrome and colorColor growing at double-digit rates
Aftermarket must overcome technical challenges in order to seize share of color marketNumber of color pages will continue to grow
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