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    1/25Transmission Line EPC ACMIIL 1

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    R E P OR TS E C T O R

    We believe investments in Transmission and Distribution (T&D) infrastructure will drive growth for companies with a strong

    presence in these segments. We initiate coverage on KEC International Limited (KEC) and Jyoti Structures Limited (JSL). We

    recommend a BUY on KEC with a price target of `89 and BUY on JSL with a price target of `110.

    Investment Thesis

    Power Demand is estimated to grow at 7.8% between 2010 and 2015 on back of GDP growth of 8% to 8.5% over next ve

    years. In line with the power requirement of the country, 95 GW of power capacity is expected to be added in the next ve years,

    considering only 33 GW additions over the previous ve years.

    As sequential transmission lines addition is required in line with the generation capacity additions, signicant transmission lines

    and substations addition are expected over the next ve years. In addition, lower investments in T&D infrastructure over the years,has necessitated strengthening of the existing networks.

    Thus to strengthen the existing system and evacuation of power from new power plants, target of 95,283 circuit kms (ckm) of

    transmission lines is planned for the 11th plan and 155,000 ckm to 180,000 ckm during the 12th plan. Growth in transmission

    systems will include not just the physical growth in the transmission network but also the introduction of higher transmission

    voltages for bulk power transmission, with the aim of limiting transmission losses.

    Over the next ve years (2010-15E), investments worth `3.4 trillion are expected to be made in T&D as compared to `1.64

    trillion made during 2005-10. This presents signicant opportunity for players in transmission line EPC segment.

    We initiate coverage on KEC International Limited (KEC) and Jyoti Structures Limited (JSL).

    KEC: At CMP of`72, KEC is trading at a P/E of 8.6x its FY11E earnings, 7.8x its FY12E and 7.3 its FY13E earnings. Considering

    GOI focus on T&D, KECs strong presence in domestic market, robust order backlog and acquisition of SAE towers which allowKEC to tap US market, we assign a P/E multiple of 9x to its FY13E earnings and recommend a BUY on the stock with a price

    target of `89.

    JSL:At CMP of `78, JSL is trading at a P/E of 7.9x its FY11E earnings, 6.9x its FY12E and 6.4 its FY13E earnings. Considering

    GOI focus on T&D, JSLs presence in domestic market and strong order backlog, we assign a P/E multiple of 9x to its FY13E

    earnings and recommend a BUYon the stock with a price target of `110.

    Transmission Line EPC

    AnalystChinmay S. Gandre

    [email protected]

    Tel: (022) 2858 3407

    21 Mar, 2011

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    R E P OR TS E C T O R

    Transmission Industry

    A T&D system comprises transmission lines, substations, switching stations,

    transformers and distribution lines. The transmission segment plays a key role in

    transmitting power to various distribution entities across the country. A T&D system is

    organized in a grid, which interconnects various generating stations and load centers.

    This ensures uninterrupted power supply to a load center, even if there is a failure at

    the local generating station or a maintenance shutdown.

    In India, the T&D system is a three-tier structure comprising distribution networks,

    state grids and regional grids. Distribution networks and state grids are primarily

    owned and operated by the respective SEBs. Most inter-state transmission links are

    owned and operated by PGCIL, with some jointly owned by the SEBs concerned. In

    addition, PGCIL owns and operates a number of inter-regional transmission lines to

    facilitate the transfer of power from a surplus region to one with decit.

    The transmission system in India operates at several voltage levels:

    Extra high voltage (EHV): 765 Kv, 400 Kv and 220 Kv

    High voltage: 132 Kv and 66 Kv

    Medium voltage: 33 Kv, 11 Kv, 6.6 Kv and 3.3 Kv

    Low voltage: 1.1 Kv, 220 volts and below

    The total length of transmission lines in the country has increased to 7.28 million

    ckm in 2007-08 vs 3.6 million ckm in 1998-99.

    Transmission Lines (ckm)

    Year HVDC 800 Kv 400 Kv 230/220Kv

    132/110/90Kv

    78/66 Kv 33/22/20Kv

    15/11 Kv 6.6/3.3/2.2Kv

    Distributionlines

    Total

    1998-99 1,672 - 36,122 85,141 105,744 41,044 263,165 1,634,840 4,494 3,568,189 5,710,411

    1999-00 1,672 - 37,636 86,963 107,522 41,646 269,963 1,660,453 4,431 3,525,121 5,735,407

    2000-01 3,176 - 38,004 92,470 110,110 43,169 274,103 1,711,619 4,562 3,570,347 5,847,560

    2001-02 4,104 - 40,887 97,238 118,180 43,849 288,226 1,753,331 4,737 3,679,596 6,030,148

    2002-03 5,876 - 51,785 99,779 120,958 43,202 302,981 1,936,689 4,558 3,985,909 6,551,737

    2003-04 5,876 - 53,616 101,667 121,925 43,297 283,240 1,869,371 6,362 3,859,504 6,344,858

    2004-05 6,841 563 57,185 104,758 124,344 45,884 299,639 1,971,722 6,431 3,953,456 6,570,823

    2005-06 6,841 563 57,840 108,261 129,465 47,231 309,708 2,047,460 6,474 4,064,516 6,778,359

    2006-07 6,841 563 58,018 111,572 132,124 49,462 314,538 2,085,897 6,431 4,149,923 6,939,529

    2007-08 6,428 1,692 65,175 115,452 138,137 49,945 335,351 2,231,698 6,519 4,328,549 7,278,946

    Source: CEA, CRISIL

    GOI thrust on power sectorPower Demand is estimated to grow at 7.8% between 2010 and 2015 on back of GDP

    growth of 8% to 8.5% over next ve years. In line with the power requirement of

    the country 95 GW of power capacity is expected to be added in the next ve years,

    considering only 33 GW additions over the previous ve years.

    Capacity additions forecast

    MW 2010-11 P 2011-12 P 2012-13 P 2013-14 P 2014-15 P Total

    Central 3,690 5,736 5,262 3,021 3,705 21,414

    State 3,112 2,800 3,510 3,103 2,648 15,173

    Private 4,285 6,397 7,620 12,675 14,545 45,522

    Total 11,087 14,933 16,392 18,799 20,898 82,109

    Captive 2,362 2,722 2,351 2,673 2,865 12,973

    Total (includingcaptive)

    13,449 17,655 18,743 21,472 23,763 95,082

    Source: CRISIL

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    R E P OR TS E C T O R

    Capacity addition is expected to translate to an investment of `9.3 trillion in power

    sector. Sequential transmission lines addition is required in line with the generation

    capacity additions to enable seamless ow of power. With Government focus on

    reducing T&D losses, investments in T&D are expected to be signicantly higher

    compared to the previous outlays. Investments worth `3.4 trillion are expected over

    the next 5 years vs 1.64 trillion made during 2005-10.

    Capacity additions forecast

    `billion 2009-10 E

    2010-11 P

    2011-12 P

    2012-13 P

    2013-14 P

    2014-15 P

    Total (2010-11to 2014-15)

    Generation-Utilities 647.7 767.4 884.5 993.6 1,131.2 1,290.8 5,067.4

    Generation-Captives 100.2 112.2 124.9 145.4 169.3 197.1 749.0

    Total T&D 431.0 499.5 579.4 672.7 781.6 908.8 3,442.0

    Total Investments 1,178.9 1,379.1 1,588.8 1,811.7 2,082.1 2,396.7 9,258.5

    Source: CRISIL

    Investments in

    T&D `Bn

    2000 to 05 2005 to 10 CAGR growth

    2005 to10

    2010 to 15P CAGR growth

    2010 to15

    814 1,638 15% 3,442 16%

    Source: CRISIL

    Signicant transmission lines addition & Up gradation of existing lines

    Traditionally, the government has focus on investments in power generation to

    alleviate the power shortage in the country. In the process, the T&D segment has

    remained neglected and attracted signicantly less investments in the comparison to

    generation. Investments ratio between generation and T&D in India has historically

    been 2:1 against an ideal investment ratio of 1:1. To strengthen the existing system

    and evacuation of power from new power plants expected during the 11th and the

    12th plan, signicant transmission lines and substation additions is planned. Target

    of 95,283 circuit kms (ckm) of transmission lines is planned for the 11th plan and

    155,000 to 180,000 ckm during the 12th plan.

    Transmissionlines (ckm)

    Existing by10th plan

    Target Additionsfor the 11thplan

    Existing capacityas of Sept 2010

    Total byMarch 2012

    Target additionsin12thplan

    765 kV 2,184 5,428 3,829 7,612 25,000 to30,000

    HVDC 500 kV 5,872 1,606 NA 7,478 30,000

    HVDC 800/600kV

    0 3,600 NA 3,600 5,000

    400 kV 75,722 49,278 100,910 125,000 50,000

    220 kV 114,629 35,371 130,788 150,000 40,000

    Total 198,407 95,283 NA 293,690 150,000to155,000

    Source: CEA

    Substation MVA/MW Existing by10thplan

    Additions11thplan

    Total by March2012

    Estimated additionsin12th plan

    HVDC terminal capacity 8,200 6,000 14,200 16,000 to 22,000

    765 kV 0 53,000 53,000 1,10,000

    400 kV 92,942 52,058 145,000 80,000

    230/220 kV 156,497 73,503 230,000 95,000Total 257,639 184,561 442,200 301,000 to 307,000

    Source: CEA

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    R E P OR TS E C T O R

    Growth in transmission systems will include not just the physical growth in the

    transmission network but also the introduction of higher transmission voltages for bulk

    power transmission, with the aim of limiting transmission losses. The up gradation

    and replacement of existing transmission lines to higher voltage would increase the

    demand for transmission towers.

    Development of inter-regional transmission corridors

    To facilitate transfer of power from surplus regions to decit regions and evacuation

    of power from central sector generation projects and Ultra Mega Power projects

    (UMPPs), both 11th and 12th plan are focused on strengthening and developing the

    national and inter-regional transmission corridors. In line Power Grid Corporation

    of India Limited (PGCIL) has invested `254.4 billion till FY10 and has planned

    capital outlay of `295.6 billion for FY11 and FY12. On May 31st 2010 the Central

    electricity regulatory commission (CERC) approved PGCIL to proceed with the

    execution of 9 high capacity power transmission corridors (HCPTCs) that will help

    transport electricity to the main load centers from 48 new IPP plants located in

    coal belt, coastal areas or hydroelectricity-rich areas in the Northeast region. The

    government has approved`580 billion for the same. Thus, inter-regional transmission

    capacity is expected to increase from 13,450 MW to 38,050 MW by 2012 and to

    75,150 MW by 2017

    Inter-Regional

    Capacity - MW

    By 10th plan Additions 11th

    plan

    By 11th Plan Additions in

    12th Plan

    By 12th Plan

    East South 3,130 500 3,630 4,200 7,830

    East North 3,430 8,700 12,130 5,900 18,030

    East West 1,790 4,700 6,490 10,500 16,990

    East-North East 1,260 1,600 2,860 0 2,860North West 2,120 2,100 4,220 10,200 14,420

    West-South 1,720 1,000 2,720 6,300 9,020

    North East /East

    North/West

    0 6,000 6,000 0 6,000

    TOTAL 13,450 24,600 38,050 37,100 75,150

    Source: CEA

    Key policies like Accelerated Power Development Reform Programme & Rajiv

    Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana (RGGVY) to encourage investments in T&D.

    GOI formulated the Accelerated Power Development Reform Programme (APDRP)

    under which states are given loans, grants and incentives for upgrading andmodernizing their sub-transmission and distribution (below 33 Kv or 66 Kv networks).

    The union government in April 2005 with the objective to provide electricity to all

    villages and habitations initiated the Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana

    (RGGVY). On a countrywide basis, about 67 per cent of the total project cost of

    RGGVY schemes amounting to `154 billion has been released till December 2009.

    Both these initiatives are expected to encourage investments in the transmission sector.

    Opportunities in Global markets

    Signicant investments in T&D are expected to be made over 2010-15 across the

    globe. Total Investments worth USD 158 billion are expected made in Middle East,

    Africa and North America.

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    R E P OR TS E C T O R

    Peer Analysis

    Capacities

    Jyoti Structures Ltd, KEC International and Kalpataru Power are dominant playersin the industry. KEC is the largest player with an annual capacity of 1.51 million MT

    followed by Jyoti Structures and Kalpataru. Apart from their own capacities, these

    players also outsource towers from qualied vendors.

    In 000 MT FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10

    JyotiCapacity 76 96 110 110

    Production 61 74 85 119

    KEC

    Capacity 58 113 151 151

    Production 51 93 107 109

    Third party outsourced 36 34 32 32

    Purchased 10 24 39 35

    Kalpataru

    Capacity 84 108 108 108

    Production 78 80 80 102

    Third party outsourced 0 NA 13 20

    Note: For JSL production numbers includes production outsourced to various parties.Source: ACMIIL Research

    Geographical presence

    JSL is predominantly a domestic player, with ~78% of the revenues coming from

    domestic market. On the other hand, KEC and Kalpataru are diversied with greater

    presence in the international markets. Approximately 56% of KECs revenue comes

    from international market like Africa, Middle East and Central Asia, while exports

    constitute ~43% of Kalpatarus sales.

    Particulars KEC Jyoti Kalpataru

    Exports as a % of total sales (FY10) 55.8% 22.1% 43.2%

    Source: ACMIIL Research, Company

    Source: Source: ABS Energy research, Accenture research, Company

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    Financial analysis

    `Mn Jyoti KEC Kalpataru

    Net Sales - FY10 21,297.7 39,063.9 25,960.4

    Sales CAGR FY07-10 29.9% 24.2% 19.4%

    OPM - FY10 10.7 10.4 12.8

    NPM - FY10 3.9 4.8 6.6

    PAT CAGR FY07-10 14.9% 21.7% 2.2%

    Capital Employed - FY10 8,778.6 16,199.5 16,064.6

    D/E - FY10 0.8 1.0 0.6

    RONW - FY10 17.0 24.0 17.3

    ROCE - FY10 24.7 23.4 20.5

    Source: ACMIIL Research, Company

    Players have registered healthy sales growth on back of investments in

    the T&D segment.

    Players enjoys operating margins in the range of 10% to 12%

    Being a working capital intensive business, players are leveraged with

    D/E up to 1x.

    In general, players enjoy healthy return ratios of 17% and above.

    Order backlog

    Players have strong order backlog giving revenue visibility for next 18 to 22 months

    Order backlog

    Order back log Q3 FY11( RHS) Order book to TTM sales (LHS)

    KEC Jyoti Kalpataru0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    `

    Bn

    80

    41 50

    1.6

    1.9 1.8

    Source: ACMIIL Research, Company

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    R E P OR TS E C T O R

    KEC International Limited (KEC), incorporated in 1945 is one of the leading players

    in the power transmission EPC business in India and international markets. KEC

    undertakes designing, manufacturing and construction of turnkey high-voltage power

    transmission line projects. It also engages in projects related to power distribution

    network, railway electrication, sub-stations and optical ber cable installations. The

    company has presence across geographies, with revenues from international market

    constituting 55% of the total revenues in FY10. In the international markets, KEC is

    primarily present in the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia.

    KECs business can be broadly divided into transmission, distribution, cables and

    railways.

    Power Transmission segment

    KEC has over 60 years of experience in executing turnkey transmission lines projects.

    It offers complete solutions that include tower design, tower testing, manufacturing

    and onsite construction up to capacity of 800 Kv transmissions lines. The company

    has three manufacturing facilities located in India at Jaipur, Nagpur and Jabalpur

    having a total capacity of 151,000 MT. It also has close association with ve value

    added partners manufacturing facilities who provide exclusive capacity to KEC of

    more than 60,000 MTs per annum.

    In `000 MT FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10

    Sales 103.3 160.0 182.6 186.9

    Production 50.8 92.8 107.1 108.8

    Purchases 9.8 23.6 39.0 35.3

    Outsourced 35.6 34.1 31.8 32.3

    Capacity 58 113 151 151

    Source: Company

    The company also has 4 tower testing stations, capable of testing towers of up to

    1200 Kv transmission line.

    B U Y

    KEC International Limited

    Source: Company

    9M FY11 - Sales Break up

    Cables10%

    SAE Towers6%

    Transmission71%

    Distribution10%

    Telecom andrailway

    3%

    Key Data (`)

    CMP 72

    Target Price 89

    Key Data

    Bloomberg Code KECI IN

    Reuters Code KECL.BO

    BSE Code 532714

    NSE Code KEC

    Face Value (`) 2

    Market Cap. (`mn) 18120

    52 Week High (`) 123

    52 Week Low (`) 71

    Avg. Daily Volume (6m) 154,870

    Shareholding Pattern (%)

    Promoters 41.7

    FII 5.0

    DII 38.1

    Others 15.2

    Total 100.0

    (`mn) FY11E FY12E FY13E

    Revenues 47,067.7 54,236.0 58,578.3

    Operating Profits 4,824.4 5,553.2 5,922.3

    OPM (%) 10.3 10.2 10.1

    PAT 2,151.3 2,379.2 2,533.5

    PAT Margin (%) 4.6 4.4 4.3

    EPS (`) 8.4 9.3 9.9

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    R E P OR TS E C T O R

    Power Distribution segment

    KEC has successfully executed substation, distribution and rural electrication

    projects in India and overseas. For substations it has a strategic alliance with Power

    Engineers Inc., USA. The company is pre qualied for all the types of substations upto 400 kV. The rural electrication business has electried 7,500 Villages.

    Cables segment RPG Cables

    RPG Cables merged with KEC from March 2010. The segment manufactures a range

    of control & power cables that are critical to the distribution network of power utilities

    and for industrial expansion. (Annexure: Product & service range)

    Railways segment

    The segment undertakes civil infrastructure including earthwork, bridges, tunnels

    and station building along with track laying and signaling work. It has electried

    5,000 track kms. The company is pre-qualied for all the railway construction related

    activities

    SAE Towers (Wholly owned subsidiary w.e.f Sept 2010)

    KEC acquired 100% stake in SAE Towers for a total consideration of USD 95 million.

    Headquartered in Texas, SAE Towers manufactures of steel lattice transmission

    towers. SAE has a total annual production capacity of 100,000 MT located at

    Monterrey, Mexico (35,000 MT) and Belo Horizonte, Brazil (65,000 MT). SAE

    supplies towers to United States, Canada, Brazil, Mexico and the rest of Latin America.

    Currently, SAE is operating at 65%to 70% utilizations levels. The company has an

    annual turnover of USD 137 million (2010). Order backlog as of Q3 FY11 stands

    at `7.2billion.

    Order book

    As of Q3 FY11 KECs standalone order backlog stands at `73 billion, which is1.8x

    TTM sales. International orders constitute 49% of the total order book, while the rest

    51% constitute of domestic orders. International orders primarily constitute of orders

    from Middle East, Africa, Central Asia and America.

    Particulars -`Mn Middle East

    and Africa

    Central

    Asia

    America Asia

    Pacific

    Domestic Total %

    Transmission 11,910.0 7,740.0 7,620.0 240.0 23,280.0 50,790.0 69.9

    Distribution 7,970.0 7,400.0 15,370.0 21.2

    Cables 1,830.0 1,830.0 2.5

    E-BOP 400.0 400.0 0.6

    Telecom 380.0 380.0 0.5

    Railways 3,900.0 3,900.0 5.4

    Total 11,910.0 15,710.0 7,620.0 240.0 37,190.0 72,670.0 100.0

    % 16.4 21.6 10.5 0.3 51.2 100.0

    Source: Company

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    R E P OR TS E C T O R

    Key Positives

    KECs Strong presence in Indian markets

    Although KEC has presence in various regions across the globe the company is a

    dominant player in the Indian markets also with a market share of ~18% to 19%.The company has a strong track record and has expertise in 765 Kv, 500 Kv and

    400Kv transmission lines. KEC also has the capability to construct substations of

    up to 400 kV, making it a total turnkey EPC contractor for power transmission lines.

    Acquisition of SAE Towers to increase presence in the US markets and to

    drive revenues and protability

    SAE Towers is the market leader in the US, Mexico and Brazil with a market

    share of over 40%. With acquisition of SAE, KEC can leverage on SAE to build

    relationship with power utilities in these regions and also use its (SAEs) facilitiesas back up facilities to expand its presence in these markets. Post acquisition, KEC

    (India) exposure to these markets has increased to ~11%, which earlier used be less

    than 2%. Recently, KEC (India) won a major order `7.35 billion from Canada; for

    this order majority of the supplies would be made from India. However, incase of

    any logistical related issue, SAE Tower facility would serve as a back up.

    SAE Towers also earns higher operating margins in range of 13% to 14%, which

    is expected to drive protability.

    Strong Order backlog

    Current stand alone order backlog stands at `73 billion. In addition SAE Towers

    has an order backlog of`7 billion, which takes the total consolidated order backlogto `80 billion. Order inows have been strong in recent quarters, the company

    received order in excess of `40 billion during 9 M FY11. Both domestic as well

    as international market has contributed to the growth in the companys order book.

    Source: ACMIIL Research

    Domestic Market Share

    Kalpataru

    16% to 17%

    Jyoti Structures

    17% to 18 %

    Others

    47% to 48%

    KEC

    18% to 19%

    Source: Company

    Consolidatd order book break up

    0.00

    80.00

    70.00

    60.00

    50.00

    40.00

    30.00

    20.00

    10.00

    Q4 FY10 Q1 FY11 Q2 FY11 Q3 FY11

    Transmission Line CablesRailway and Telecom SAE Tower

    Order backlog sandalone

    Q4 FY0945

    50

    55

    60

    65

    70

    75

    Q1 FY10 Q2 FY10 Q3 FY10 Q4 FY10 Q1 FY11 Q2 FY11 Q3 FY11

    `

    Bn

    51.63 51.55

    55.43

    60.51

    57.07 56.5

    64.63

    73

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    R E P OR TS E C T O R

    Key Concerns

    Working capital intensive business

    The T&D business is working capital intensive in nature and the requirement is

    primarily funded through short-term loans. Working capital loans required stoodat ~30% of sales. Thus, working capital management is crucial and increase in

    working capital requirement has a direct impact on interest cost and thereby the

    protability of the company.

    Uncovered risk related to raw material prices

    Domestic transmission line EPC contracts include a price variation clause for

    adjusting changes in raw material prices. However international contracts are

    based on xed price. Steel, aluminum and zinc are the main raw materials for

    construction of a transmission line. Steel and aluminum, constitute about 15 %

    of the operational costs each, and zinc constitutes around 2-3%. To neutralize the

    effect of uctuations in raw material prices KEC generally enters into hedgingof aluminum through forward contracts. For supply of steel, KEC enters into

    advance contracts with vendors for 5-6 months, for reducing risks involved with

    its price changes. However, steel is not fully covered, keeping the risk open for

    the company to that extent. Currently ~ 35% of the total order backlog (primarily

    export orders) is not subject to price variation clause.

    Foreign currency risk:

    KEC has presence in more than 40 countries. Revenues from international markets

    constitute approximately 55% of total revenues. The company tries to match

    receipts with payments. However, foreign exchange risk is not fully covered.

    CompetitionApart from the established dominant player approximately 45 others EPC

    contractors participated in PGCIL tenders in 2010. Participation by such players

    has signicantly increased competition and has resulted in increased pricing

    pressure in the industry.

    Operating margins of all the three major players have dropped in range of 100 to 200

    bps as compared to FY08.

    Operating profit margins

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    14.0

    16.0

    8.810.4

    12.5

    11.411.6

    14.8

    11.812.8

    12.6

    FY08 FY09 FY10

    KEC Jyoti Kalpataru

    Source: ACMIIL Research, Company

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    R E P OR TS E C T O R

    BOOT

    The company is participating in the bids for BOOT projects. These projects

    requiring high investments would be developed in 70:30 debt/equity ratio. In

    case the company emerges as a successful bidder for the project, it will convert

    the company from current pure product & solutions provider (EPC contractor) to

    services-cum-solutions provider (Owner cum EPC contractor). The clear picture

    related to nancial requirements, protability in view of SEBs being the client

    and augmented man power requirements can emerge only after winning of a

    particular project.

    Foray into new verticals

    KEC is foraying into new verticals like railway infrastructure. Indian Railways

    (IR) is a monopsony market, which limit bargaining power of KEC. In addition,

    as company is trying to create its space in this vertical, margins are also expected

    to be subdued, which will have an impact on consolidated margins.

    SWOT Analysis

    Strength Weakness

    KECs strong track record and execution

    capabilities.

    Strong presence in domestic market with market

    share of 18% to 19%

    Strong order backlog of`80 billion, gives revenue

    visibility for next 18 to 22 months.

    Working capital intensive business

    Foreign currency Risk

    Uncovered risk related to raw material prices

    Opportunity Threats

    Capacity addition planned for the 11th and

    12th plan would lead to significant addition of

    transmission lines.

    Up gradation of existing T&D network

    Policies like RGGVY and APDRP to encourage

    investment in T&D.

    Acquisition of SAE towers provides opportunities

    to tap US markets

    Competition from domestic EPC contractors has

    led to increased pricing pressure in the industry.

    Unrest in middle East

    Financials

    KECs net sales have increased at a CAGR of 24% from `20,406.3 million in FY07

    to `39,072.3 million in FY10 on back of investments in T&D. We expect net salesto grow at CAGR of 15% to `58,578.3 million in FY13E.

    Operating margins dropped from 12% in FY07 to 10.4% in FY10 on account of

    increased pricing pressure in the industry. We expect marginal fall in operating prots

    margins as we expect SAE towers which earns operating margins in range of 13%

    to 14% to partly arrest fall in margins on account of increased pricing pressure in

    domestic industry. We expect the company to register OPM of 10.3%, 10.2% and

    10.1% in FY11E, FY12E and FY13E respectively.

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    12/25Transmission Line EPC ACMIIL 12

    An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    INVESTMENT INTERRMEDIATES LTD.

    1

    R E P OR TS E C T O R

    Valuation and Recommendation

    At CMP of `72, KEC is trading at a P/E of 8.6x its FY11E earnings, 7.8x its FY12E

    and 7.3 its FY13E earnings. Considering GOI focus on T&D, KECs strong presence

    in domestic market, robust order backlog and acquisition of SAE towers which allowKEC to tap US market, we assign a P/E multiple of 9x to its FY13E earnings and

    recommend a BUY on the stock with a price target of `89.

    Peer Valuation One year forward PE Chart

    4/3/2006

    7/3/2006

    10/3/2006

    4/3/2007

    7/3/2007

    10/3/2007

    1/3/2007

    4/3/2008

    7/3/2008

    10/3/2008

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    10/3/2009

    1/3/2009

    4/3/2010

    7/3/2010

    10/3/2010

    1/3/2009

    10/3/2011

    Jyoti Strcutures KEC International Kalapatau Power

    0.0

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.030.0

    35.0

    40.0

    45.0

    Source: ACMIIL Research

    `

    One year forward P/E Chart

    4/3/2006

    7/3/2006

    10/3/2006

    4/3/2007

    7/3/2007

    10/3/2007

    1/3/2007

    4/3/2008

    7/3/2008

    10/3/2008

    1/3/2008

    4/3/2009

    7/3/2009

    10/3/2009

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    4/3/2010

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    1/3/2009

    10/3/2011

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    200

    Close Price 15 PE 12 PE 10 PE 8 PE

    Source: ACMIIL Research

  • 8/10/2019 Transmission Industry

    13/25Transmission Line EPC ACMIIL 13

    An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    INVESTMENT INTERRMEDIATES LTD.

    1

    R E P OR TS E C T O R

    Financials

    Profit & Loss Account `Mn

    Particulars FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E

    Net Sales 20,406.3 28,144.7 34,273.9 39,063.9 47,067.7 54,236.0 58,578.3Total Expenditure 17,887.8 24,601.5 31,278.1 35,013.7 42,243.2 48,682.8 52,656.0

    Operating Profit 2,518.5 3,543.2 3,010.3 4,058.6 4,824.4 5,553.2 5,922.3

    Other Income 6.9 2.5 5.9 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.0

    EBIDTA 2,525.4 3,545.7 3,016.2 4,068.5 4,834.4 5,563.2 5,932.3

    Depreciation 334.4 250.7 230.0 270.2 403.6 483.1 508.3

    EBIT 2,191.1 3,295.1 2,786.2 3,798.3 4,430.8 5,080.1 5,424.0

    Interest 592.5 676.5 999.7 864.7 1,121.2 1,419.8 1,526.3

    PBT 1,598.6 2,618.5 1,786.5 2,933.6 3,309.6 3,660.3 3,897.7

    Taxes 552.2 896.9 618.4 1,037.0 1,158.4 1,281.1 1,364.2

    PAT 1,046.4 1,721.6 1,168.1 1,896.6 2,151.3 2,379.2 2,533.5

    Growth in sales (%) 37.9 21.8 14.0 20.5 15.2 8.0

    Growth in Operating profits (%) 40.7 -15.0 34.8 18.9 15.1 6.6

    Growth in PAT (%) 64.5 -32.2 61.6 14.0 10.6 6.5

    OPM (%) 12.3 12.6 8.8 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1

    Net Profit Margin (%) 5.1 6.1 3.4 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.3

    Source: ACMIIL Research, Company

    Balance Sheet `Mn

    Particulars FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E

    Sources of Funds

    Share Capital 376.9 493.4 493.4 514.2 514.2 514.2 514.2

    Reserves and Surplus 2,343.1 4,458.3 5,087.4 7,356.8 8,911.6 10,694.3 12,631.4

    Total Shareholders Funds 2,719.9 4,951.7 5,580.9 7,870.9 9,425.7 11,208.5 13,145.5

    Total Loan Funds 3,864.2 5,917.7 6,218.2 7,867.4 14,185.5 15,020.2 15,963.7

    Net Deferred Tax Liability 334.8 446.8 298.2 461.1 461.1 461.1 461.1

    Total Capital Employed 6,918.9 11,316.2 12,097.3 16,199.5 24,072.3 26,689.7 29,570.3

    Application of Funds

    Gross Block 4,676.3 5,213.0 6,319.6 8,357.4 11,370.3 13,420.3 14,120.3

    Less: Accumulated Depreciation 600.0 898.5 1,247.8 1,570.1 1,973.7 2,456.8 2,965.2

    Net Block 4,076.2 4,314.4 5,071.8 6,787.4 9,396.5 10,963.4 11,155.1

    Capital Work in Progress 22.9 189.0 543.3 412.8 450.0 100.0 100.0

    Goodwill on consolidation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,756.6 2,756.6 2,756.6

    Investments 205.9 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Net Current Assets 2,569.4 6,561.8 6,482.2 8,999.3 11,469.2 12,869.7 15,558.6

    Deferred Tax Assets 44.5 246.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Total Assets 6,918.9 11,316.2 12,097.3 16,199.5 24,072.3 26,689.7 29,570.3

    Source: ACMIIL Research, Company

  • 8/10/2019 Transmission Industry

    14/25Transmission Line EPC ACMIIL 14

    An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    INVESTMENT INTERRMEDIATES LTD.

    1

    R E P OR TS E C T O R

    Cash flow Statement `Mn

    Particulars FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E

    PBT 1,598.6 2,618.5 1,786.5 2,933.6 3,309.6 3,660.3 3,897.7

    Add

    Depreciation 334.4 250.7 230.0 270.2 403.6 483.1 508.3

    Interest 603.2 680.6 1,016.7 944.7 1,121.2 1,419.8 1,526.3

    Profit before working capital changes 2,389.4 3,618.1 3,396.7 3,644.2 4,834.4 5,563.2 5,932.3

    Working capital changes -2,213.4 -2,669.4 1,010.0 -2,519.4 -2,442.4 -1,626.6 -2,071.9

    Less Taxes -394.6 -905.4 -624.5 -778.2 -1,158.4 -1,281.1 -1,364.2

    Net Cash flow from operating activities -218.5 43.4 3,767.2 346.6 1,233.7 2,655.5 2,496.2

    Net Cash flow in investment activities -98.2 -317.8 -1,380.6 -508.5 -5,806.6 -1,700.0 -700.0

    Net Cash flow from financing activities -99.2 556.4 -1,687.4 -678.3 4,600.4 -1,181.6 -1,179.2

    Net increase /(decrease) in cash -416.0 282.0 699.1 -840.2 27.5 -226.1 617.0

    Op. balance of cash and cash equivalents 629.9 213.9 689.9 1,409.9 699.3 726.8 500.7

    Add: cash balance of jointly controlled operation 0.0 0.0 20.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Add: cash balance acquired under the scheme 0.0 184.5 0.0 129.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Cl. balance of cash and cash equivalents 213.9 680.4 1,409.9 699.3 726.8 500.7 1,117.7

    Source: ACMIIL Research, Company

    Ratios

    Particulars FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E

    Profitability Ratios

    OPM (%) 12.3 12.6 8.8 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1

    PAT Margin (%) 5.1 6.1 3.4 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.3

    RONW (%) 38.5 34.8 20.9 24.0 22.8 21.2 19.3

    ROCE (%) 31.7 29.1 23.0 23.4 18.4 19.0 18.3

    Per Share Ratios

    EPS (Rs.) 5.6 7.0 4.7 7.3 8.4 9.3 9.9

    CEPS (Rs.) 5.4 7.7 5.4 8.4 9.9 11.1 11.8

    Adj BV Per Share (`) 14.4 20.1 22.6 30.6 25.9 32.9 40.4

    Valuation Ratios

    P/E (x) - - - 9.8 8.6 7.8 7.3

    P/CEPS (x) - - - 8.5 7.2 6.5 6.1

    P/BV (x) - - - 2.4 2.8 2.2 1.8

    Capital Structure Ratios

    Debt/Equity 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.2

    Current Ratio 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6

    Turnover Ratios

    Debtors turnover ratio 2.3 2.0 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9

    Inventory turnover ratio 13.6 13.7 15.2 15.6 15.2 15.2 15.2

    Fixed Asset Turnover 5.0 6.5 6.8 5.8 5.0 4.9 5.3

    Source: ACMIIL Research,

  • 8/10/2019 Transmission Industry

    15/25Transmission Line EPC ACMIIL 15

    An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    INVESTMENT INTERRMEDIATES LTD.

    1

    R E P OR TS E C T O R

    Jyoti Structures Limited (JSL), incorporated in 1974, is a turnkey solutions provider

    in transmission & distribution segment. Over the past 3 decades it has successfully

    executed over 600 projects. The company is primarily focused on domestic market,

    with revenues from domestic market constituting 78% of total revenues.

    JSLs business can be broadly divided into transmission lines, substation and rural

    electrication projects.

    Transmission lines

    JSL has over 30 years of experience in executing turnkey projects in the eld of extra

    high voltage (EHV) transmission lines. It offers complete solutions that include tower

    design, tower testing, manufacturing and onsite construction up to capacity of 800

    Kv HVAC or 500 Kv HVDC. The company also has its own testing facilities that

    can test towers up to 1,200 Kv. It has its manufacturing facilities located in Nasik

    (Annual Capacity: 68,000 MT) and Raipur (Annual Capacity: 42,000 MT). In FY10,

    transmission lines contributed 70% to its total revenues.

    Substations

    JSL has undertaken projects ranging from the augmentation of existing substations

    to development of new substations. It has capabilities to construct substations up to

    400 Kv and has successfully completed 559 bays. Substations contributed 15% to

    total revenues in FY10.

    Distributions/ Rural electrication

    JSL has electried over 2,361 villages and provides connections to over 450,000

    households. Currently electrication of 4,447 villages is in progress. This segment

    contributed 15% to total revenues in FY10.

    B U Y

    Key Data (`)

    CMP 78

    Target Price 110

    Key Data

    Bloomberg Code JYS IN

    Reuters Code JYTS.BO

    BSE Code 513250

    NSE Code JYOTISTRUC

    Face Value (`) 2

    Market Cap. (`mn) 6390

    52 Week High (`) 178

    52 Week Low (`) 77

    Avg. Daily Volume (6m) 377,835

    Shareholding Pattern (%)

    Promoters 27.61

    FII 11.01

    DII 29.88

    Others 31.5

    Total 100.0

    (`mn) FY11E FY12E FY13E

    Revenues 24,211.9 26,456.0 29,117.1

    Operating Profits 2,552.1 2,683.7 2,976.4

    OPM (%) 10.5 10.1 10.2

    PAT 992.4 1,141.8 1,229.7

    PAT Margin (%) 4.1 4.3 4.2

    EPS (`) 9.9 11.3 12.2

    Jyoti Structures Limited

    JSL: EPC Contractor for TransmissionDistribution Lines and Substation

    High Voltage Transmission Line Distribution Line

    Transfer of Power from Generating Station to Cinsumer

    Substation Consumer

    PowerGeneationStation

    Source: Company

    Transmission Towers

    Capacity Production Utilisation

    FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    000MT

  • 8/10/2019 Transmission Industry

    16/25Transmission Line EPC ACMIIL 16

    An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    INVESTMENT INTERRMEDIATES LTD.

    1

    R E P OR TS E C T O R

    Order book

    As of Q3FY11 JSLs order backlog stands at `41 billion (~200,000 MT), which is

    2x TTM sales. Domestic orders constitute 82% of the total order book, while exports

    constitute the remaining 18%. Clients wise, SEBs together constitute 58% of the totalorder book followed by PGCIL (26%) and private players constituting the remaining

    16%. Segment wise transmission line constitutes 80% of the total order backlog

    followed by rural electrication (15%) and substations (5%).

    Foreign Operations

    To expand its presence in the Gulf, JSL has a formed joint venture company named

    Gulf Jyoti International LLC (GJIL) with Gulf Investment Corporation. JSL stake

    in the JV is 30%. GJIL has its facilities located in Dubai with an annual capacity of

    50,000 MT. As of Q3 FY11, GJILs order book stands at ~`10 billion. JSL has also

    formed a subsidiary, Jyoti Structures Africa (Pty) Ltd. in South Africa, in 2007 to

    participate in local transmission markets.

    Apart from Gulf and African region the company also plans to foray in the US

    market. It is planning to set up a facility in USA that will manufacture steel towers.

    The company plans to invest USD 12 million for the same.

    Source: Company

    SubstationRuralTransmission

    5%15%

    80%

    Order Book Break Up

    ExportDomestic

    Order Book Break Up

    82%

    18%

  • 8/10/2019 Transmission Industry

    17/25Transmission Line EPC ACMIIL 17

    An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    INVESTMENT INTERRMEDIATES LTD.

    1

    R E P OR TS E C T O R

    Key Positives

    JSLs strong presence in domestic T&D segment

    JSL is one of the dominant player in the industry with a domestic market share of

    ~17 to 18%. The company has a strong track record having successfully completed24,568 ckm transmission line and designed/tested towers up to a capacity of 800

    kV HVAC or 500 kV HVDC for various utilities. JSL also has the capability to

    construct substations of up to 400 kV, making it a total turnkey EPC contractor for

    power transmission lines.

    Strong Order backlog

    JSL order backlog has increased from `36.06 billion in FY09 to `41 billion in Q3

    FY11. Current order backlog is 1.9x TTM sales and gives revenue visibility till FY13.Order inows have improved in last four quarters, with company registering order

    inows worth `7,000 million in Q3 FY11.

    Margins immune from uctuations in raw material prices

    Most of the domestic projects have a variable price clause, which provides cushion

    against uctuations in the prices of major raw materials such as steel and zinc. With

    the domestic business accounting ~ 81% of the companys order book, margins are

    largely immune to uctuations in raw material prices.

    Domestic Market Share

    Kalpataru16% to 17%

    Others

    47% to 48%KEC

    18% to 19%

    Jyoti Structures

    17% to 18 %

    Source: ACMIIL Research

    Order Back Log

    25

    27

    29

    31

    33

    35

    37

    39

    41

    43

    45

    Q1FY09

    Q2FY09

    Q3FY09

    Q4FY09

    Q1FY10

    Q2FY10

    Q3FY10

    Q4FY10

    Q1FY11

    Q2FY11

    Bn

    Q3FY11

    35.6 36.16 35.1 36.06

    39.5938.69

    40.341.5

    41.06

    42.541.5

    Order Inflow

    0

    1000

    2000

    3000

    4000

    5000

    6000

    7000

    8000

    9000

    Q1FY09

    Q2FY09

    Q3FY09

    Q4FY09

    Q1FY10

    Q2FY10

    Q3FY10

    Q4FY10

    Q1FY11

    Q2FY11

    Mn

    Q3FY11

    Source: Company

  • 8/10/2019 Transmission Industry

    18/25Transmission Line EPC ACMIIL 18

    An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    INVESTMENT INTERRMEDIATES LTD.

    1

    R E P OR TS E C T O R

    Key Concerns

    Working capital intensive business

    The T&D business is working capital intensive in nature and the requirement is

    primarily funded through short-term loans. In FY10, working capital loans requiredstood at 28% to 30% of sales. Thus, working capital management is crucial and

    increase in working capital requirement has a direct impact on interest cost and

    thereby the protability of the company.

    Competition

    Apart from the established dominant player approximately 45 others EPC contractors

    participated in PGCIL tenders. Participation by such players has signicantly increased

    competition and has resulted in increased pricing pressure in the industry.

    Operating margins of all the three major players have dropped in range of 100 to 200

    bps as compared to FY08.

    BOOT

    The company is participating in the bids for BOOT projects. These projects requiring

    high investments would be developed in 70:30 debt/equity ratio. In case the company

    emerges as a successful bidder for the project, it will convert the company from current

    pure solutions provider (EPC contractor) to services-cum-solutions provider (Owner

    cum EPC contractor). The clear picture related to nancial requirements, protability

    in view of SEBs being the client and augmented man power requirements can emerge

    only after winning of a particular project.

    SWOT Analysis

    Strength Weakness

    JSLs strong track record and execution capabilities.

    Strong presence in domestic market with market share of

    17% to 18%

    Strong order backlog of `41 billion, gives revenue visibility

    for next 18 to 22months.

    Working capital intensive business

    Opportunity Threats

    Capacity addition planned for the 11th and 12th plan would

    lead to significant addition of transmission lines.

    Up gradation of existing T&D network

    Policies like RGGVY and APDRP to encourage investment

    in T&D.

    Competition from domestic EPC

    contractors has led to increased

    pricing pressure in the industry.

    Source: ACMIIL Research, Company

    Operating profit margins

    KEC Jyoti Kalpataru

    FY08 FY09 FY100.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    14.016.0

    8.8

    10.4

    12.5

    11.6

    14.8

    11.8 12.8

    12.611.4

  • 8/10/2019 Transmission Industry

    19/25Transmission Line EPC ACMIIL 19

    An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    INVESTMENT INTERRMEDIATES LTD.

    1

    R E P OR TS E C T O R

    Financials

    JSLs net sales have increased at a CAGR of ~30% from `9,724 million in FY07 to

    `21,297.7 million in FY10 on back of investments in T&D. We expect net sales to

    grow at CAGR of 11% to`

    29,117.1 million in FY13E.Operating margins dropped from 13% in FY07 to 10.7% in FY10 on account of

    increased pricing pressure in the industry. We expect OPM to further drop to 10.2%

    in FY13E.

    Rights Issue

    The company issued Non Convertible Debentures (NCDs) with Detachable Warrants

    on rights basis.

    Details of the issue

    Issue: 10,261,243, 7% NCD of face value `120 each with 20,522,486 detachable

    warrants

    Size of the issue `1231.4 million (excluding conversion of warrants)

    Total Issue Size `3,694.05 million (assuming full conversion of warrants)

    Issue Price/ Face value per

    NCD

    `120

    Warrant Exercise Price `120

    Rights Ent it lement 1 NCD with 2 detachable warrants for every 8 equity shares held

    Redemption period for NCDs NCD shall be redeem after 15 months

    Warrant Exercise Period Warrants can be exercised within 18 months from the Date of Allotment during

    the periods set out below:

    August 15, 2011 to September 15, 2011 (both days inclusive),

    February 15, 2012 to March 15, 2012 (both days inclusive),

    June 15, 2012 to end of 18th month from the Date ofAllotment.

    Additional Subscription by the

    Promoter

    Promoter and Promoter Group have right to subscribe to their entitlement

    in this Issue, including by subscribing for renunciation, if any, made by

    any other Shareholder. The Promoter and the Promoter Group may apply

    for additional NCDs with detachable Warrants in the Issue, to the extent of

    any unsubscribe portion of the Issue, such that the total subscription by our

    Promoter and Promoter Group (including their Rights Entitlement) shall not

    exceed 90% of the Issue size.

    NCD Allotted 9,346, 310 ( `1121.56 million)

    War rants Allotted 18,692,620 ( 2 warrants for every 1 NCD issued)

    Source: Company

    We have considered conversion of allotted warrants into equity shares in our nancials.

    Hence, we have increased share capital to `201.4 million.

  • 8/10/2019 Transmission Industry

    20/25Transmission Line EPC ACMIIL 20

    An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    INVESTMENT INTERRMEDIATES LTD.

    1

    R E P OR TS E C T O R

    Valuation and Recommendation

    At CMP of `78, JSL is trading at a P/E of 7.9x its FY11E earnings, 6.9x its FY12E

    and 6.4 its FY13E earnings. Considering GOI focus on T&D, JSLs presence in

    domestic market and strong order backlog, we assign a P/E multiple of 9x to itsFY13E earnings and recommend a BUYon the stock with a price target of `110.

    Source: ACMIIL Research

    One year forward P/E Chart

    4/1

    /05

    8/1

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    12/1

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    00

    50

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    350

    `

    Close Price 8 PE 15 PE 12 PE 10 PE

    Peer Valuation One year forward PE Chart

    4/3/2006

    7/3/2006

    10/3/2006

    4/3/2007

    7/3/2007

    10/3/2007

    1/3/2007

    4/3/2008

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    10/3/2011

    Jyoti Strcutures KEC International Kalapatau Power

    0.0

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.025.0

    30.0

    35.0

    40.0

    45.0

    Source: ACMIIL Research, Company

  • 8/10/2019 Transmission Industry

    21/25Transmission Line EPC ACMIIL 21

    An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Company

    INVESTMENT INTERRMEDIATES LTD.

    1

    R E P OR TS E C T O R

    Financials

    Profit & Loss Account `Mn

    Particulars FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E

    Net Sales 9,723.8 13,738.3 18,393.6 21,297.7 24,211.9 26,456.0 29,117.1Total Expenditure 8,460.8 11,980.3 16,318.4 19,011.1 21,659.8 23,772.3 26,140.8

    Operating Profit 1,263.0 1,758.0 2,075.2 2,286.6 2,552.1 2,683.7 2,976.4

    Other Income 8.2 15.2 56.4 63.5 60.0 60.0 60.0

    EBIDTA 1,271.2 1,773.2 2,131.6 2,350.0 2,612.1 2,743.7 3,036.4

    Depreciation 59.4 72.0 99.4 178.4 201.4 220.2 269.0

    EBIT 1,211.8 1,701.2 2,032.3 2,171.7 2,410.7 2,523.5 2,767.4

    Interest 329.3 467.3 687.8 795.7 835.5 711.2 815.6

    PBT 882.5 1,233.9 1,344.5 1,376.0 1,575.3 1,812.3 1,951.9

    Taxes 327.9 488.7 493.4 533.0 582.8 670.6 722.2

    PAT 554.7 745.2 851.1 843.0 992.4 1,141.8 1,229.7

    Less: Excess / (Short) Provision of Taxes for earlier years 4.7 45.6 0.2 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

    PAT 549.9 699.6 851.0 833.9 992.4 1,141.8 1,229.7

    Growth in sales (%) 41.3 33.9 15.8 13.7 9.3 10.1

    Growth in Operating profits (%) 39.2 18.0 10.2 11.6 5.2 10.9

    Growth in PAT (%) 27.2 21.6 -2.0 19.0 15.1 7.7

    OPM (%) 13.0 12.8 11.3 10.7 10.5 10.1 10.2

    NPM (%) 5.7 5.1 4.6 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.2

    Source: ACMIIL Research, Company

    Balance Sheet `Mn

    Particulars FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E

    Sources of Funds

    Share Capital 161.4 162.4 163.3 164.0 201.4 201.4 201.4

    Reserves and Surplus 2,543.7 3,217.5 4,024.8 4,747.3 5,506.1 8,620.0 9,616.0

    Total Shareholders Funds 2,705.1 3,379.8 4,188.1 4,911.3 5,707.5 8,821.4 9,817.4

    Total Loan Funds 1,607.5 2,249.0 3,125.1 3,689.7 3,947.0 1,659.3 2,026.1

    Net Deferred Tax Liability 55.1 67.9 91.0 177.5 177.5 177.5 177.5

    Miority interest 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Total Capital Employed 4,367.8 5,696.7 7,404.7 8,778.6 9,832.1 10,658.2 12,021.1

    Application of Funds

    Gross Block 979.8 1,140.6 1,901.1 2,438.1 2,685.4 2,935.4 3,735.4

    Less: Accumulated Depreciation 385.6 456.2 550.5 687.8 889.2 1,109.3 1,378.3

    Net Block 594.1 684.4 1,350.6 1,750.4 1,796.3 1,826.1 2,357.2

    Capital Work in Progress 11.2 15.0 51.8 27.3 30.0 380.0 30.0

    Investments 121.0 95.6 166.6 166.6 166.6 166.6 166.6

    Net Current Assets 3,617.6 4,884.1 5,823.6 6,834.3 7,839.2 8,285.5 9,467.3

    Misc Exp 23.9 17.5 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Total Assets 4,367.8 5,696.7 7,404.7 8,778.6 9,832.1 10,658.2 12,021.1

    Source: ACMIIL Research, Company

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    Cash flow Statement `Mn

    Particulars FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E

    PBT 882.5 1,233.9 1,344.5 1,376.0 1,575.3 1,812.3 1,951.9

    Add

    Depreciation 59.4 72.0 99.6 178.6 201.4 220.2 269.0

    Interest 329.3 467.3 687.7 795.7 835.5 711.2 815.6

    Profit before working capital changes 1,354.3 1,824.5 2,167.6 2,299.8 2,612.1 2,743.7 3,036.4

    Working capital changes -1,399.0 -1,198.1 -1,005.8 -81.5 -1,068.8 -651.5 -825.0

    Less Taxes -334.8 -487.0 -653.3 -489.7 -582.8 -670.6 -722.2

    Net Cash flow from operating activities -384.2 93.9 508.5 1,728.6 960.4 1,421.6 1,489.2

    Net Cash flow in investment activities -173.0 -164.3 -378.8 -1,265.9 -250.0 -600.0 -450.0

    Net Cash flow from financing activities 611.1 117.2 121.2 -311.4 -811.8 -989.4 -682.4

    Net increase /(decrease) in cash 53.9 46.8 250.9 151.3 -101.3 -167.8 356.9

    Op. balance of cash and cash equivalents 39.3 93.2 140.0 390.9 542.2 440.9 273.1

    Cl. balance of cash and cash equivalents 93.2 140.0 390.9 542.2 440.9 273.1 629.9

    Source: ACMIIL Research, Company

    Ratios

    Particulars FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E

    Profitability Ratios

    OPM (%) 13.0 12.8 11.3 10.7 10.5 10.1 10.2

    PAT Margin (%) 5.7 5.1 4.6 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.2

    RONW (%) 20.3 20.7 20.3 17.0 17.4 12.9 12.5

    ROCE (%) 27.7 29.9 27.4 24.7 24.5 23.7 23.0

    Per Share Ratios

    EPS (`.) 6.7 8.5 10.4 10.2 9.9 11.3 12.2

    CEPS (`.) 7.5 10.0 11.6 12.5 11.9 13.5 14.9

    BV Per Share (`) 33.5 41.6 51.3 59.9 56.7 87.6 97.5

    Valuation Ratios

    P/E (x) - - - 7.7 7.9 6.9 6.4

    P/CEPS (x) - - - 6.3 6.6 5.8 5.2

    P/BV (x) - - - 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.8

    Capital Structure Ratios

    Debt/Equity 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.2

    Current Ratio 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

    Turnover Ratios

    Debtors turnover ratio 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

    Inventory turnover ratio 11.9 17.3 12.0 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.5

    Fixed Asset Turnover 16.4 20.1 13.6 12.2 13.5 14.5 12.4

    Source: ACMIIL Research

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    Annexure KECs product range power cables

    Annexure KECs Order details

    Products

    LV : up to 1.1 kV

    MV : 3.3 kV to 33 kV.

    EHV: 45 kV to 132 kV

    LT & HT Aerial Bunched Cables

    TELECOM CABLES -PIJF Copper Cables

    Optic Fiber Cables

    SPECIALITY CABLES - Fire Survival Cables

    Instrumentation Cables

    Signaling Cables

    House WiresTurnkey contracts

    Total Cabling Solutions

    Turnkey Installation Services

    Jointing, Testing and Commissioning

    Technical Services for Cable Selection

    Date INR Mn Order type Country

    20/01/2011 3,390 765 Kv line -PGCIL India20/01/2011 400 BOP - NMDC India

    3/1/2011 9,420 Substations order Kazakhstan

    3/1/2011 380 PGCIL - Substation order India

    27/12/2010 3,130 765 Kv line -RRVPN India

    27/12/2011 2460 Transmission Tower order (received by SAE Towers) -

    27/12/2011 1,300 765 Kv Line - PGCIL India

    27/12/2011 970 765 Kv Line SA

    27/12/2011 970 Railway India

    27/12/2011 1,350 Telecom cables order India

    3/10/2010 7,350 High voltage transmission line towers Canada

    3/10/2010 1,580 Transmission Line Nigeria

    3/10/2010 1,350 Transmission Line - PGCIL India

    3/10/2010 950 Transmission Line India

    3/10/2010 1,120 Railway India

    3/10/2010 1,760 LT, HT, EHV Cables order India

    5/8/2010 920 400 Kv - Substation - PGCIL India

    5/8/2010 620 220 kV substation Bhutan

    5/8/2010 510 400 kV transmission line - Bina Power supply India

    5/8/2010 450 Transmission line UAE

    30/07/2010 570 Railways - civil construction, signaling, track laying and electrification India

    30/07/2010 300 Railways - electrification Malaysia

    8/7/2010 3,260 Transmission Line - 400 /500 Kv Georgia

    8/7/2010 660 Transmission Line Zambia

    8/7/2010 420 Transmission Line Philippines

    8/7/2010 1,230 LT, HT, EHV Cables order India

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    Annexure Jyotis : projects under execution

    Transmission Lines

    Name of the Projects Expected Datesof Completion

    North EastNorth/Western Interconnector-I 800kV HVDC Tangla-Kokrajhar-Barabisa section of Biswanath Chariyali-

    Agra transmission line for Power Grid Corporation of India Limited, India. Total length of the line is 211 Kms.

    Feb-13

    Mundra-Mohindergarh Transmission Line 500kV HVDC Mundra-Mohindergarh transmission line for Adani Power

    Limited, India. Total length of all the lines is 1,000 Kms.

    Feb-11

    Western Region Strengthening Scheme-II 400kV transmission lines project in Maharashtra and Gujarat for Reliance

    Energy Limited, India. Total length of all the lines is 1,500 Kms.

    Jul-11

    400kV Alamathy-Sunguvarchatram Transmission Line 400 kV multi circuit transmission line from Alamathy

    substation to Sunguvarchatram substation for Tamil Nadu Electricity Board, India. Total length of all the line is 49 Kms.

    Apr-11

    `North East-Northern/Western InterconnectorI 400kV double circuit lower Subhansiri-Biswanath Chariyali

    transmission line for Power Grid Corporation of India Limited, India. Total length of the line is 170 Kms.

    Oct-11

    U P Power Transmission Corporation Ltd. 765kV single circuit Anpara D-Jhusi, 765kV single circuit Anpara C-Anpara

    D Interconnector and shifting of 765kV single circuit Anpara B-Unnao to Anpara C for U P Power Transmission

    Corporation Limited, India. Total length of the line is 202 Kms.

    Feb-12

    Bhutan Power Corporation Ltd. 400kV double circuit Punatsangchhu I to Sunkosh transmission line under (Package-A

    & B) for Bhutan Power Corporation Limited, Bhutan. Total length of the line is 210 Kms.

    Jul-14

    Substations

    Name of the Projects Expected Datesof Completion

    Amargarh & Alusteng Substations at Jammu 220/132kV substations at Amargarh & Alusteng for Jammu Kashmir

    Power Development Department, India.

    Mar-11

    Switchyard Package for Bongaigaon Thermal Power Project 400kV Switchyard Package for Bongaigaon Thermal

    Power Project in Assam for National Thermal Power Corporation Limited, India.

    Dec-11

    Substation Package S1 for Wanpoh Substation under NRSS-XVI 400/220kV Wanpoh (New) Substation and

    Extension of 400kV Kishenpur Substation under Northern Region System Strengthening Scheme-XVI for Power

    Grid Corporation of India Limited, India.

    Dec-12

    Rural Electrification

    Name of the Projects Expected Datesof Completion

    Nashik & Pune District Rural electrification works under Infrastructure Plan (Phase-II) in Nashik and Pune Zones

    for Maharashtra State Electricity Transmission Company Limited, India.

    May-11

    Pali, Barmer, Malkangiri, Balasore and Sarguja Districts Rural electrification works in Pali, Barmer and Sarguja

    districts (Chhattisgarh) for Power Grid Corporation of India Limited, India.

    Apr-11

    Gumla, Simdega and Chatra Districts Rural electrification works in Jharkhand for Damodar Valley Corporation, India. 20-Mar

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    Disclaimer:

    This report is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon such. ACMIIL or

    any of its afliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information

    contained in the report. ACMIIL and/or Promoters of ACMIIL and/or the relatives of promoters and/or employees of ACMIIL may have interest/position, nancial or

    otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency we have incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should

    however not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report

    Disclosure of Interest KEC International Limited Jyoti Structures Limited

    1. Analyst ownership of the stock NO NO

    2. Broking Relationship with the company covered NO NO

    3. Investment Banking relationship with the company covered NO NO

    4. Discretionary Portfolio Management Services NO NO

    This document has been prepared by the Research Desk of Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd. and is meant for use of the recipient only and is not for

    circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others. It should not be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.

    The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We

    may from time to time have positions in and buy and sell securities referred to herein.

    Notes:

    Institutional Sales:Ravindra Nath, Tel: +91 22 2858 3400

    Kirti Bagri, Tel: +91 22 2858 3731

    K.Subramanyam, Tel: +91 22 2858 3739

    Email: [email protected]

    Institutional Dealing:

    Email:[email protected]