Wir schaffen Wissen – heute für morgen

Transition to a secure and low carbon Swiss energy system Ramachandran Kannan

66th Semi-Annual IEA-ETSAP meeting 17-19 November 2014 Copenhagen, Denmark

• Swiss energy system • Swiss TIMES energy system model (STEM) • Scenarios • Results • Conclusions

Outline

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Overview of Swiss energy system

Switzerland final energy demand

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Overview of Swiss energy system

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Challenges Alternatives to the low carbon nuclear energy limited non-hydro renewable resources

Seasonal variation in supply-demand imported electricity for winter

Decarbonisation of heating and transport Imported fossil fuels

Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM) • Time horizon: 2010 – 2100

• 5-year period length in near term and 10-15 years in long term

• 144 intra-annual time splits (timeslices) • hourly representation of weekdays & weekends

in Summer, Winter and an intermediate season • Five end-use sectors with subsector description

• Six industrial subsectors (chemicals, cement, metal, food,…)

• Four categories of residential heating (existing-, new-, single- and multi-family houses)

• Agriculture, shipping and aviation for calibration (i.e.limited optimization)

• Detailed electricity and energy conversion modules

• Existing and new electricity/heat generation technologies, hydrogen, biofuels, etc.

• Fully calibrated to the BFE’s 2010 energy balance

• Final energy demand, CO2 emission, car stock, power plants,…..

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Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM)

Fuel production

module

Fuel distribution

module

Demand modulesElectricity generation

module

Resource module

Electricity import

Uranium

Natural gas

Hydrogen

Electricity export

Electricity

Other fuels

Renewable• Solar • Wind• Biomass• Waste

Electricity storage

Hydro resource• Run of rivers• Reservoirs

CO2

Demand technologies

Residential- Boiler - Heat pump- Air conditioner- Appliances

Services

Industires

Hydro plants

Nuclear plants

Natural gas GTCC

Solar PV

Wind

Geothermal

Other

Taxes & Subsidies

Hydrogen fuel cell

Energy demand services

Vehicle kilometre

/ tkm

Lighting

Motors

Space heating

Hot water heating

Oil

TransportCar fleet

ICEHybrid vehicles

PHEV

BEV

Fuel cell

Bus/LGV/HGV

Mac

roec

onom

ic d

river

s (e

.g.,

popu

latio

n, G

DP,

floo

r are

a, v

km)

Inte

rnat

iona

l ene

rgy

pric

es (o

il, n

atur

al g

as, e

lect

ricity

, ...)

Tech

nolo

gy c

hara

cter

izat

ion

(effi

cien

cy, l

ifetim

e, c

osts

,…R

esou

rce

pote

ntia

l (w

ind,

sol

ar, b

iom

ass,

….)

BiofuelsBiogas

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Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM)

Renewable availability patten Wind availability factor

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

00 04 08 12 16 20Hours

Summer Fall

Winter Spring

Solar PV availability factor

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1 5 9 13 17 21

Summer Winter Fall Spring

Availability of hydro plants

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

River hydro Dam hydro

Hydro Wind Solar PV

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Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM) Cost of residential building

conservation measures

Residential heat demand profile

Scenarios

Business as usual scenario • Energy service demands from Swiss Energy Perspective 2050 • International energy (ETP 2014) & electricity (CROSSTEM*) prices • CO2 price as per the Swiss Energy Perspective 2050 • Nuclear phase out and option for new gas power plants • Annual self-sufficiency in electricity supply

Low carbon scenario • 60% reduction in total CO2 emissions by 2050 Energy security scenario • Reduce fossil fuel imports by 55% by 2050

*Cross border Swiss TIMES electricity model Seite 8

Results Final energy demand - BAU

• Final energy demand declines about 30% by 2050

• End-use energy efficiency • Fuel substitution/switching • Uptake of building energy

conservation measures • Electricity demand increases

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• Space heating declines two-thirds by 2050 building conservation / efficiency of heating technologies.

• Transport fuel demand declines 40% most of the reductions in car

• Electricity demand for air conditioning almost doubles

Results Final energy demand – LC60

• Final energy demand declines about 38% by 2050 Residential – 50%, Transport – 32%, Services – 18%

• Conservations is 50% higher than the BAU scenario

• Direct use of solar energy for heating applications becomes cost effective

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• Oil- and gas-based heating systems are fully phased by 2050

• Uptake of costly conservation measures is also important in the early period even though the CO2 target becomes stringent only later assumed to be available only at the time of building renovation.

Results Final energy demand – SEC

• Final energy demand declines about 30% by 2050 Similar to LC60 • Electricity demand in 2050 is 12% lower than the LC60 and BAU scenarios • Continuation of fossil fuels in transport

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Results Car fleet

BAU • ICE advanced ICE cars hybrid cars

battery electric vehicles (BEVs) • By 2050, 40% of the car fleet (i.e. two

million cars) are BEV. • Average CO2 emission decline from 208 g-

CO2/km (2010) 144 g-CO2/km (2020) 45 g-CO2/km (2050)

LC60 • ICE advanced ICE cars hybrid cars Plug-in hybrid BEVs

• Car fleet almost decarbonised

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SEC • ICE advanced ICE cars hybrid cars Plug-in hybrid

Results Residential energy demand

BAU • Reduction of about 2% per annum • Oil gas electric heat pumps • Cost of gas vs. electric network expansion

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Results Electricity supply

BAU • Electricity demand grows at 0.7% per

annum • Nuclear plants are replaced by natural gas

combined cycle plants • 12% of the electricity supply is from

renewable in 2050

LC60 • Renewable electricity 22% (2050) • Higher uptake of CHPs

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SEC • Low electrification less gas based

generation

Results W

inte

r wee

kday

s Su

mm

er w

eekd

ays

Marginal cost electricity

Gasoline hybrid car

Pumping

Exports

Demand

BEV charging

Battery electric vehicles

Electricity supply-demand balance - BAU scenario - Weekday

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Results W

inte

r wee

kday

s Su

mm

er w

eekd

ays

Plug-in hybrid car

Imports

BEV charging

Battery electric vehicles

Electricity supply-demand balance - LC60 scenario - Weekdays

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Results CO2 emissions - BAU

• Direct CO2 emissions from end use sectors reduce Additional CO2 emissions from electricity sector

• Electrification ‘shifts’ some the direct (end use) CO2 emissions to the electricity sector Nevertheless there is net reduction in CO2 emissions

Electricity

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Residential

Results CO2 emissions

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Results Annual energy system costs in 2050

In the LC60 scenario (additional annual costs wrt. BAU in 2050) • Additional cost CHF 6.81 billion for the LC60 scenario / CHF 4 billion for the SEC scenario • Fuel costs and taxes decline because of reduced consumption of fuels • In the electricity sector about CHF 2 billion because of deployment of capital-intensive renewables • High capital expenditure CHF 8.7 billion, some of this additional expenditure is offset by reductions in fuel

expenditure/taxes

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Results Scenario indicators in 2050

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Indicators Units 2010 BAU LC60 SEC

Per capita electricity consumption MWh 7.6 8.9 8.8 7.8

Per capita final energy consumption MWh 32 21 20 20

Per capita CO2 emission t-CO2 4.91 2.67 1.38 1.55

Residential electricity use per household MWh 5.3 5.7 5.2 5.6

Cumulative CO2 emissions* (2010–2050) M.t-CO2 43 1559 1294 1348

Average CO2 intensity of car fleet g-CO2/km 208 45 2 61

Electricity intensity^ MWh per M.CHF 109 100 100 88

Final energy intensity^ MWh per M.CHF 456 239 225 229

CO2 intensity* t-CO2 per M.CHF 79 37 23 25

Total energy cost** % of GDP 4.5% 6.5% 7.3% 7.0%

Per capita undiscounted energy costs** CHF2010 3'108 5'732 6'485 6'167

* including international aviation ** The 2010 energy cost does not include investment costs of existing technology stock ^ Based on all end-use sectors, including residential.

Conclusions • Several factors are driving the development of energy demands, including

the electrification of end-use sectors and international energy prices, along with climate and energy security policy

• Final energy demand declines 0.35–0.88% per annum under the set of business as usual (BAU) scenarios and 1.1–1.2% per annum in the low carbon and security scenarios

• In the BAU scenario CO2 emissions are reduced by 30%, and additional abatement is required to realise a 60% emission reduction. Total CO2 emissions are reduced by 54% in the SEC scenario,

• Centralized gas generation produces additional CO2 emissions across the scenarios. However, the electricity from these plants can substitute direct use of fossil fuels in end-use sectors (e.g., heating and transport), resulting in a net reduction in emissions

• The additional cost of achieving a 1.4 t-CO2 per capita is CHF 750–950 per person in 2050

R. Kannan, H. Turton, 2014, Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM) for transition scenario analyses, Final report to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy. http://www.psi.ch/eem/stem

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Ramachandran Kannan (kannan.ramachandran@psi.ch)

Thanks for your attention!

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