Transition from armed struggle to nonviolent resistance

Dynamics and Factors of Transition from Armed Struggle

to Nonviolent Resistance

Dr Véronique Dudouet,

Book presentation

Washington, 10.02.2015

Outline of this presentation

Rationale and methodology

Actor-based approach:

resistance/liberation

movements

Action-based approach:

repertoire of contention

Conflict ‘demilitarisation’

patterns

Drivers of change

page 2

Conflict transformation stages

01 Rationale and methodology page 3

1. INTRODUCTION - Véronique Dudouet2. Western Sahara: Nonviolence as a Last Resort - Jacob Mundy and Stephen

Zunes3. From the Mountains and Jungles to the Villages an d Streets: Transitions from

Violent to Nonviolent Resistance in West Papua - Jason McLeod4. Evolution of Armed to Unarmed Resistance in Pales tine - Mazin Qumsiyeh5. South Africa: The Townships Rise Up - Stephen Zunes6. From Armed Struggle to Interaction with Civil Soc iety: Chiapas’ Zapatista

National Liberation Army - Guiomar Rovira Sancho7. Two Sides of the Same Coin: Indigenous Armed Stru ggle and Indigenous

Nonviolent Resistance in Colombia - José Armando Cárdenas Sarrias and Katrin Planta

8. Egypt’s Revolution and the Transformation of Arme d Islamist Movements towards Unarmed Activism - Omar Ashour

9. Nepal’s Maoists: From Violent Revolution to Nonvi olent Political Activism -Manish Thapa

10. CONCLUSION - Véronique Dudouet

Edited book: Table of Contents

01 Rationale and methodology page 4

Actor-oriented approach : Resistance/Liberation movements

Three main types of movements:

National liberation movements striving for freedom through self-

determination (Western Sahara, West Papua, Palestine + South Africa)

� Organisational, geographic and strategic divisions

Movements representing an oppressed/marginalised ethnic community

advancing agendas for cultural, economic, or political rights – but with no

claims to seize central state power (Chiapas/Mexico and Cauca/Colombia)

� Three concentric organisational circles, self-defense army at the service of a social

movement

Ideological/revolutionary armed movements (Nepal and Egypt)

� Emerged from a pre-existing political party and developed cohesive underground

structures over the course of armed insurgency

02 Actor-oriented approach page 5

Action -oriented approach: Armed vs. nonviolent resistance

Conventional action Non-institutional/Contentious action

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Unarmed resistance Armed resistance

• Party politics

• Advocacy or diplomacy

• Dialogue and negotiation

• Litigation

• Protest and persuasion

• Non-cooperation (civil

disobedience)

• Disruptive intervention

• Creative resistance

• Sabotage

• Protest violence

• Guerrilla insurgency

• Terrorist attacks

• Conventional warfare

03 Action-oriented approach page 6

Conflict demilitarisation trajectories

Types of transition from armed to unarmed resistance Cases

A. Collective shift to (primarily) nonviolent struggle

while retaining use of violence or access to weapons,

followed/accompanied by negotiations with the state

• African National Congress, South Africa (1980s)

• Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN), Chiapas

(Mexico) (1994)

• Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) (2006)

B. Unequivocal demobilisation in a context of

dialogue/peace process, shift to institutional action,

followed by a (re)turn to nonviolent resistance by

some members

• Armed Movement Quintín Lame (MAQL), Colombia

(1990 onwards)

• Gama’a Islamiya, Egypt (1997 onwards)

C. Progressive escalation of civil resistance and de-

escalation of armed struggle within a broader

liberation movement, but with a geographical and

generational gap, and no clear-cut leadership

endorsement

• Polisario, Western Sahara

• West Papua National Liberation Army (TPN-PB)

• Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO)

04 Transition patterns page 7

1912 1950 1961 1970 1980 1990 1994

1912: African

National

Congress

established

1990-1993:

Negotiations

and peace

accords

1994: ANC

electoral

victory

1950s: Defiance

Campaign

1970s: Black

Consciousness

Movement

1983: United

Democratic Front

(UDF)

established

1961: Launch of

armed struggle

by ANC (MK)

1980s: ANC armed

activity in moral

support of nonviolent

resistance

South Africa: Anti-apartheid movement


From 1994 onwards: Nonviolent mobilisation

in Chiapas, greater Mexico, and abroad

1994:

Dialogue

with the

state

1980s: Zapatista movement

organizes for armed action

1994: 12-day guerrilla

insurgency, mutual

ceasefire declared

Kept unused weapons as security

guarantee

1980 1994

Chiapas (Mexico): Zapatista movement


Parliamentary

politics

'Hardliners'

remobilise for

nonviolent

struggle

1990:

Nonviolent

revolution

1996-2006: Maoists wage 'people's war'

2006:

Participation

in nonviolent

revolution

1990 1996 2006 2012

2006: Maoists

negotiate peace

accord with the

government

Electoral politics and state

governance; disarmament

and demobilization of

former combatants

Nepal: Maoist movement

04 Transition patterns page10

1977-1990: MAQL wage a

guerrilla insurgency

1971: CRIC

established

Formal and collective DDR, party

politics, and legal channels

Remobilization of some

former combatants for

nonviolent resistance

1991: MAQL

negotiates a peace

accord with the

government

1971 1980 1990

Cauca/Colombia: Indigenous movement


1988-1993:

Mediation

attempts

2002: Armed

wings

dismantled

From late-1970s

onward: GI engages in

violent Islamist

militancy (jihadism)

1997: GI declares

unilateral ceasefire

Egypt: Islamist group (GI)

2013:

Mix of party

politics and

nonviolent

resistance2011: Some

members participate

in nonviolent

revolution

From 1997 onwards: Dialogue

with the state and DDR

1980 1997 2002 2011 2013

04 Transition patterns page12

West Papua (Indonesia): Liberation movement

1999-2000: Mass based

campaigns

2010-2011: Mass based

campaigns

1965 1998 2000 2010

National and international lobbying for West Papua1969: "Act of Free

Choice"

From 1965 onwards: West

Papuan National Liberation

Army (TPN-PB) operates in a

network of decentralised

guerrilla groups

President

Suharto is

overthrown

Many groups demobilise (but do not become

active in nonviolent resistance),

while some TPN-PB groups remain

active


Western Sahara: Liberation movement

1975-1991: UN/OAU diplomatic

efforts to resolve the Morocco-

Polisario dispute

1991: Ceasefire

takes hold and

MINURSO

formed

Since 1991 Polisario maintains a

standing army

1975-1991: Polisario wage war of

independence

1975-2005: Intermittent nonviolent resistance

(significant campaigns in 1987, 1995, and 1999)

2000-present: Successive UN

mediation attempts

1973: Polisario

founded against

Spanish

occupiers

1973 1980 1991 2000 2005 2010

2010: Largest

mass

demonstrations

and most

violent under

Moroccan

occupation

2005: Protests

galvanize a new

generation of

activists (Sahrawi

intifada)


Palestine: Liberation movement

1965 1974 1987 1993 2000 2009

1965-1980s: Violent actions waged

on the international stage by various

armed factions

2009: Fatah leaders

pledge support for

nonviolent

resistance

From 1990s onwards:

Violent campaigns

launched by Islamist

groups

1974: PLO

diplomatic

engagement

Armed struggle by Islamists

continues intermittently

From 1993 onwards: Negotiations and state-

building by the Palestinian Authority

1987-1991:

First

intifada

2000:

Second

intifada

1993: Oslo

agreement

From 2000

onwards:

Decentralized

nonviolent

resistance


Drivers of transition from armed to nonviolent resi stanceLevels of analysis Mechanisms of change

Intra-group

• Shifts in the identity, belief systems and strategic choices of the leadership

• Horizontal dynamics and power shifts

• Vertical dynamics across the hierarchy (top-down/bottom-up)

Group-society

• Pressure from (existing) allies within a broader movement

• Coalition-building with other socio-political forces

• Mirroring a strategy that has been proved effective by other groups

• ‘Reversed outbidding’ to emphasise one’s distinction with competitors

Group-state

• Persistence or increase in power asymmetry in favour of the state

• Level and nature of state repression to dissent

• Selective state inducement and political opportunities

Group-

international

• Loss of foreign support and search for new allies

• Emulation of successful regional/international models

• Cross-border transmission of techniques and skills

05 Factors of transition

1. Intra-group factors

Shifts in the identity, belief systems and strategi c choices of the leadership:

Some leaders underwent behavioural shifts caused by a reassessment of the means (e.g.

Egypt, Palestine) and/or goals (e.g. Chiapas, Nepal) of the movement.

Some movements started using nonviolent resistance more intensively after the

emergence of a new generation of leaders (e.g. Western Sahara, West Papua)

Horizontal and vertical communication and power dyn amics:

Some shifts to civil resistance were induced by internal power dynamics between

‘moderate’ and ‘hardliner’ leaders/branches of the movement (e.g. Nepal, Colombia)

Rank-and-file militants were able to take up active leadership roles in civil resistance

thanks to top-down political education and ‘socialisation’ (e.g. Colombia, Egypt)

page 1705 Factors of transition

2. Group -society factors

Pressure and incentives from existing or potential allies:

Some armed groups become sensitive to ‘war fatigue’ within their community

(Colombia, West Papua)

Others become socialised to join broader civil society campaigns (Chiapas, Nepal) –

including in alliance with their opponents’ constituency (South Africa, Palestine, West

Sahara).

Relations with other socio-political actors operati ng in the same social environment:

Armed groups might turn to civil resistance to mirror a strategy used effectively by

others (Palestine, Colombia, Egypt)

Or they might adopt unarmed means to distance themselves from their political

competitors (Colombia, Palestine)


3. Group -state factors

Persistent power asymmetry and counter-effectivenes s of guerrilla warfare:

Some armed groups realised that the correlation of forces with the state forced them to

adopt nonviolent struggle as an alternative methods of asymmetric conflict, and as ‘a

tool of necessity, not of choice’ (Western Sahara, South Africa).

Others first attempted to negotiate a peace deal and adopt conventional politics, before

turning to civil resistance as a more effective method to effect change (Palestine,

Colombia, Egypt).

Impact of state repression to dissent or political opportunity structure:

The impact of repressive state policies on their members and communities forced some

movements to reconsider the (ethical) benefits of armed vs. nonviolent methods of

struggle (West Papua, Egypt).

Some movements seized political openings (e.g. ceasefire, democratisation) to reinforce

their capacity for nonviolent mobilisation (Western Sahara, West Papua)


4. International factors

Loss of support base for armed insurgency or search for new allies:

Global events such as the end of the Cold War or the post-9/11 War on Terror

convinced some opposition groups to adopt conflict strategies more likely to attract

international sympathy and support (South Africa, Palestine).

Some movements framed their struggle in line with existing transnational social

movements in order to gain support from global activism and networks (Chiapas).

Emulation of successful international models and cr oss-border transmission of knowledge and skills:

Some activists looked to other movements regionally or internationally for inspiration

(West Papua and Chiapas vs. Colombia and Western Sahara).

A few movements expanded their ‘toolbox’ of tactics by being trained and exposed to

technical and empirical expertise on nonviolent action from abroad (West Papua,

Palestine)


Comparison of main factors across the eight cases

We

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rn

Sa

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ra

We

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Pa

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a

Pa

lest

ine

So

uth

Afr

ica

Ch

iap

as

Co

lom

bia

Eg

yp

t

Ne

pa

l

Role of the leadership X X X X X X X

Intra-group horizontal dynamics X X X X

Intra-group vertical dynamics X X

Pressure from social allies X X X X X

(Societal) coalition-building X X X X X

(Societal) reversed outbidding X X

Societal mirroring X X X

Group-state power asymmetry X X X X X X

State repression to dissent X X

Selective state inducement and political opportunities X X X X X

Loss/lack of foreign support and search for new allies X X X X X X X

Emulation of successful international models X X

Cross-border transmission of skills and knowledge X X X


Thank you for your attention!

For more information:http://www.routledge.com/books/details/9781138019423/http://youtu.be/4mERjp83pMI (recorded live webinar)

page 22

Transition from armed struggle to nonviolent resistance

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