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  • Planning Act 2008

    Infrastructure Planning (Applications: Prescribed Forms and Procedure)

    Regulations 2009

    Regulation Number: Regulation 5(2)(o)

    Author: Jacobs

    Document Reference: TR010007/APP/23.6

    Revision Date Description

    0 8 Jan 2014 Application Issue

    Traffic Forecasting Report

    A160/A180 Port of Immingham Improvement

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  • Glossary

    AADT - ANNUAL AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC

    AAWT - ANNUAL AVERAGE WEEKDAY TRAFFIC

    ABP – ASSOCIATION OF BRITISH PORTS

    ARCADY – SOFTWARE FOR ASSESSMENT OF ROUNDABOUT CAPACITY

    ATC – AUTOMATIC TRAFFIC COUNT

    DFT – DEPARTMENT FOR TRANSPORT

    DM – DO MINIMUM (WITHOUT SCHEME)

    DMRB – DESIGN MANUAL FOR ROADS AND BRIDGES

    DS – DO SOMETHING (WITH SCHEME)

    GDP – GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

    GEH - STATISTICAL COMPARISON OF TWO NUMBERS

    GFA – GROSS FLOOR AREA

    HGV – HEAVY GOODS VEHICLE (OGV1 AND OGV2)

    LGV – LIGHT GOODS VEHICLE

    MCC – MANUAL CLASSIFIED COUNT

    MCTC – MANUAL CLASSIFIED TURNING COUNT

    NMU – NON MOTORISED USER

    NTEM – NATIONAL TRIP END MODEL

    NTM – NATIONAL TRAFFIC MODEL

    OGV – ORDINARY GOODS VEHICLE

    PCF – PROJECT CONTROL FRAMEWORK

    PCU – PASSENGER CAR UNIT

    PICADY – SOFTWARE FOR ASSESSMENT OF CAPACITY OF PRIORITY JUNCTIONS

    PPK – PENCE PER KILOMETER

    PPM – PENCE PER MILE

    RSI – ROAD SIDE INTERVIEW

    SHB – SOUTH HUMBER BANK

    TA – TRANSPORT ASSESSMENT

    TEMPRO – TRIP END MODEL ASSESSMENT PROGRAMME

    TRADS – TRAFFIC FLOW DATA SYSTEM

    TRICS – TRIP RATE INFORMATION COMPUTER SYSTEM

    TRL – TRANSPORT RESEARCH LABORATORY

    WEBTAG – INTERNET BASED TRANSPORT APPRAISAL GUIDANCE

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  • CONTENTS

    1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 7 2 OVERVIEW OF CURRENT BASE YEAR MODELS ................................................... 11 3 SUMMARY OF PREVIOUS FORECASTING WORK ................................................. 14 4 DEVELOPMENT OF 2012 INTERIM FORECAST MODEL ........................................ 15 5 FORECASTING AND MODELLING FUTURE YEAR TRAVEL ................................... 19 6 CORE TEMPRO SCENARIO ..................................................................................... 28 7 CORE SCENARIO ..................................................................................................... 38 8 CORE SCENARIO - FUTURE YEAR FORECASTS ................................................... 42 9 HIGH AND LOW SENSITIVITY TEST RESULTS ....................................................... 48 10 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION ................................................................................ 54 FIGURES

    Figure 1.1 - Location of A160 ............................................................................................ 7 Figure 1.2 - Plan of Key Locations and Features of A160 Scheme .................................... 8 Figure 1.3 - Plan Indicating Proposed Layout for A160 Scheme ...................................... 10 Figure 4.1 - MCTC and MCC Sites Used in the Creation of 2012 Matrices ...................... 16 Figure 5.1 - Forecast Core TEMPRO Methodology (Cars) Flow Chart ............................ 26 TABLES

    Table 4.1 - 2012 Matrix Validation Results ...................................................................... 18 Table 5.1 – PPM and PPK Values ................................................................................... 22 Table 5.2 - Classification of Future Inputs ....................................................................... 23 Table 5.3 - NTM 2011 Factors ......................................................................................... 27 Table 6.1 - Default TEMPRO 6.2 Planning Assumptions 2012 to 2031 ........................... 28 Table 6.2 - Adjusted TEMPRO 6.2 Planning Assumptions 2012 to 2031 ......................... 30 Table 6.3 - Fuel & Income Factors .................................................................................. 30 Table 6.4 - Development Site Trip Generation (Total Vehicles) ....................................... 32 Table 6.5 - Scunthorpe Gravity Model Distribution by Population Area ............................ 34 Table 6.6 - AM Peak Core TEMPRO Matrix Totals. ......................................................... 36 Table 6.7 - Inter Peak Core TEMPRO Matrix Totals ........................................................ 36 Table 6.8 - PM Peak Core TEMPRO Matrix Totals .......................................................... 36 Table 6.9 - 12 Hr AAWT Model Conversion Factors ........................................................ 37 Table 6.10 - 12hr AAWT to 16hr, 18hr and 24hr AAWT and AADT Conversion Factors .. 37 Table 7.1 - Able Development Trip Totals ....................................................................... 38 Table 7.2 - Additional Port Growth Trip Totals ................................................................. 39 Table 7.3 - AM Peak Core Matrix Totals .......................................................................... 40 Table 7.4 - Inter Peak Core Matrix Totals ........................................................................ 40 Table 7.5 - PM Peak Core Matrix Totals .......................................................................... 40 Table 7.6 – Comparison between Core TEMPRO and Core Matrix Totals ...................... 41 Table 8.1 - A160 Journey Times (Seconds) - Core Scenario ........................................... 42 Table 8.2 - A1173 Journey Times (Seconds) - Core Scenario ......................................... 42 Table 8.3 - A180 Journey Times (Seconds) - Core Scenario ........................................... 42 Table 8.4 - Congestion - Delays and Queues - Opening Year 2016 - Core Scenario ...... 44 Table 8.5 - Congestion - Delays and Queues - Design Year 2031 - Core Scenario ......... 44 Table 8.6 - Summary Vehicle Hours - Core Scenario ...................................................... 45 Table 8.7 - Summary Vehicle Kilometres - Core Scenario ............................................... 46 Table 8.8 - Forecast Core Scenario Model Assignment Convergence ............................. 47 Table 9.1 - High Growth Matrix Totals ............................................................................. 50 Table 9.2 - Low Growth Matrix Totals .............................................................................. 52

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    1 INTRODUCTION

    1.1 SCHEME HISTORY/BACKGROUND

    1.1.1 The South Humber Bank (SHB) remains the largest area of undeveloped land fronting a deep-water estuary in the United Kingdom. Approximately 1000 hectares of land is currently available for future development. The ports of Immingham and Grimsby located on the SHB are the largest ports in the UK by tonnage having handled 66 million tonnes of freight in 2007, representing some 10% of the UK’s cargo market. The SHB is also home to the UK’s largest refinery cluster representing approximately a quarter of the UK’s refining capacity.

    1.1.2 With the availability of developable land and increasing infrastructure constraints at the major southern ports (Felixstowe, Southampton etc) there is the potential for significant growth to take place on the SHB with the ports of Immingham and Grimsby forecast to grow rapidly over the next 10-15 years to meet growing UK demand.

    1.1.3 The A160 is the principal route to the Port of Immingham from the A180, which continues to Grimsby (see Figure 1.1). The A160 and A180 routes provide a strategic link between these ports and the national motorway network, via the M180 and M18.

    Figure 1.1 - Location of A160

    1.1.4 Although the local road network in the vicinity of the SHB is reasonably lightly trafficked, the A160 between the A180 and the Port of Immingham remains the biggest single constraint to the area’s development.

    1.1.5 Key locations and features of the A160 are shown on Figure 1.2. The section between A180 (Brocklesby Junction) and Habrough Roundabout is a single carriageway road (2km length) followed by a dual carriageway section for 2.5km to Manby Road Roundabout. A 700m single carriageway section

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    connects the Immingham Port entrance (west gate) to Manby Road Roundabout.

    Figure 1.2 - Plan of Key Locations and Features of A160 Scheme

    1.1.6 The heavy freight traffic serving the port results in a high proportion of Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) traffic on the A160; between 35% and 45% (AADT), with the HGV proportions at some points during the day rising to in excess of 70%1. This proportion is significantly higher than the average (10% HGVs2) for rural trunk roads which affects the throughput of vehicles on the two single carriageway sections; this in turn can cause delays on the whole A160/A180 route.

    1.1.7 With the planned expansion of the port and the land available for development, a considerable traffic growth is forecast in the next 10 to 15 years. The existing road layout is already inhibiting growth in the region, and is predicted, to worsen over time. The increase in the volume of traffic flow, particularly HGVs, is likely to worsen the sa