Tracking the Dow Theory Buy Signal – Close buy no Cigar!

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    Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

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    Oct ober 26, 2010 Track ing t he Dow Theor y Buy Signal Close buy no Cigar!

    The 10-Year yield is on the cusp of my monthly and weekly pivots at 2.555 and 2.566. A trend

    above targets my annual value level at 2.813. A trend below targets my quarterly andsemiannual risky levels at 2.265 and 2.249. Gold has found my monthly pivot at $1343.7 as amagnet. My quarterly value level is $1306.4 and my weekly risky level at $1373.5. Crude oilremains below my semiannual and monthly risky levels at $83.94 and $84.74. The euro is thewild card with my quarterly value level is 1.3318 and my weekly risky level is 1.4308. The Dowtraded above its April 26th closing high of 11,205.03 again on Monday and the Dow Transportstraded above its May 3rd closing high at 4806.1. Closes above both generates a Dow TheoryBuy Signal. That did not occur on Monday!Dow Industrials tested my annual pivot at 11,235 asexpected with semiannual and weekly risky levels at 11,296 and 11,526. Dow Transports have amonthly pivot at 4797 and weekly and annual risky levels at 4944 and 4955.

    10-Year Note (2.549) Daily, annual and annual value levels are 2.609, 2.813 and 2.999 with monthlyand weekly pivots at 2.555 and 2.566, and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.265 and 2.249.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

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    Comex Gold ($1339.8) Daily, quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are $1323.9, $1306.4,$1260.8, $1218.7 and $1115.2 with my monthly pivot at $1343.7, and weekly risky level at $1373.5.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Nymex Crude Oil ($82.33) Daily and annual value levels are $80.53 and $77.05 with a weekly pivotat $82.57, and semiannual and monthly risky levels at $83.94 and $84.74.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

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    The Euro (1.3968) My quarterly value level is 1.3318 with a daily pivot at 1.3935 and weekly riskylevel at 1.4308. My monthly value level is 1.2342 with semiannual risky level at 1.4733.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

    Daily Dow: (11,164) Monthly, semiannual, annual and quarterly value levels are 10,857, 10,558,10,379 and 8,523 with a daily pivot at 11,125, and annual, semiannual and weekly risky levels at11,235, 11,296 and 11,526. My annual risky level at 11,235 was tested at the October 25thandApril 26thhigh of 11,247.60 and 11,258.01.

    Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

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    Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

    Richard Suttmeier

    Chief Market StrategistValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

    Send your comments and questions to [email protected]. For more information on our products and services visitwww.ValuEngine.com

    As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, andquarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. Mynewest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go HERE to review sample issues andfind out more about my research.

    I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.