Towards the new London planning

RSA Research Network

21 September 2012

Why we plan for London

London's growing..

By 2031 there could be:•1.2 million more Londoners (to 8.82m)•0.8 million more households•0.7 million more jobs•4 million more trips per day (2023)

And need for•34,900 more homes•1,3-2.2 m sq ft of office space in central London alone•1.3 – 2.2 m sq ft of comparison retail space•40,000 more hotel bedrooms

Updated projections

Most recent projections:•Population:

2011 Census: 8.17m

2016: 8.5m (LP8.1m)

2021: 8.8m (8.32m)

2026: 9m (8.57m)

2031: 9.1m/10m ONS (LP 8.8m)

•Employment2031: 4.7m (LP 5.45m)

We have been here before..

•1921: Population 7.4 million

•1939: Population 8.6 million (previous peak)

•Growth of about 1.2 million

London 1914

London 1939

How was this growth met?1921-1938

•Middlesex grew by 805,325•Wembley by 552% (100,600); Hayes and Harlington by 386% (35,000); Ruislip-Northwood by 348% (32,000)

"[Here]..the continued overflowing growth of London has been most marked, and houses in their thousands have been built for people whose occupations were not in the neighbourhood, but in the central area and who preferred the daily discomforts of straphanging to the excessive rents and overcrowding of London itself..In the Suburban Ring is found the "average man" of the LCC housing estates who travels 16 miles a day and spends £12 a year on getting to and from his work" - Greater London Plan (1944)

And in planning..•Green belt: LCC 1935, Green Belt

(London and Home Counties) Act 1938

•Barlow Commission: report 1940

•County of London Plan: 1943

•Greater London Plan: 1944

The current climate

"About half of NAMA’s portfolio was located in London which has so far performed very well from Aug 2009 to Dec 2010 but has been more subdued over the past year. Supply shortages and money chasing a relatively stable investment have maintained prices and there might even be a short term fillip from this year’s Olympics. Beyond London and the English south east, there is evidence of prices waning amidst sluggish economic growth and stunted lending"

Namawinelake (14/9/2012)

Delivery•Developers are developing•"Non-developer developers" aren't

•But it may not really matter

•Banks aren't lending - and when they do:

•at low level•at high rates•expect high levels of profit

•Good old fashioned NIMBYism an issue•Constant fiddling with the system ditto

A new London Planning System?

Are signs of a distinctive London system

•Still formal recognition of strategic level•National Planning Policy Framework:

•Everywhere in London has an up-to-date plan•More room for local approaches•Growing sense of a "London sector"•Always keep a-hold of nurse...

•Development is still happening - so can test new approaches

Governance changes

•Mayoral call-in of strategic applications (2008)•Devolution of housing investment role (2011)•Localism Act 2011:

•Abolition of London Development Agency•transfer of land and development to Mayor's direct control•Mayoral development corporations

•GLA shifting from strategy to delivery•And its approach to planning reflects this.

National planning agenda

•NPPF•encouraging sustainable development•identifying and seeking to meet need•emphasis on local circumstances

•Government housing and growth agenda•Duty to cooperate

•within London - and beyond

•Community Infrastructure Levy•Neighbourhood planning

How is the Mayor responding?•By being clear about priorities for the system:

•2020 Vision•London Planning Statement

•By keeping the London Plan up-to-date:•"London expression of NPPF"•Based on sound evidence (eg offices, housing)•Implementation Plan and infrastructure

•By producing guidance•Eg on neighbourhood planning:

•Lifetime neighbourhoods•Understanding Place•Neighbourhood planning, including conformity

How is the Mayor responding?•Finding London solutions for London issues

•Mayor's response to Government's growth statement: Boris, not PINS•"Barriers to Delivery"•Prioritised/focussed approach to opportunity areas•Tackling detailed problem areas:

•viability•hazardous installations

•Cross-boundary cooperation...

Neighbourhood planning - a digression• London has:

•15 DCLG "front runners"•an unknown number of other NP projects•range from:

•Norland (K and C) - conservation-led•Hackbridge (Sutton) - community-led, borough-facilitated

• NPs must have regard to strategic policies in development plan•housing policies are likely to be covered by this

• LP and guidance intended as a localism resource• Currently thinking about conformity

criteria/process

Planning beyond London

•Inter-Regional Forum•"Not as effective as it could have been"•75% of its membership no longer exists

•London Plan sets out issues needing cross-boundary work

•Mayoral commission looking at funding infrastructure for the SE

•Duty to cooperate•About to consult on an organic

approach

Conclusions

•Localism in London:•complex•has Londonwide aspect•has strengthened the Mayoralty

•There is room for innovation•There has already been a quiet revolution•You can have good planning in bad times•Increasingly, there is a London planning system•If we don't shape it, Government may

Questions?