© OECD/IEA 2017

Towards an Action Plan for TCP

Enhancement

Dave Turk, Acting Director of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks

TCP Universal Meeting, 9 October 2017

IEA

© OECD/IEA 2017

As technology costs drop, markets soar…

Source: Adapted from DOE, “Revolution…Now: The Future Arrives for Five Clean Energy Technologies – 2015 Update,”

http://www.energy.gov/eere/downloads/revolution-now-future-arrives-five-clean-energy-technologies-2015-update

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Land-Based Wind

Distributed PV

Utility-Scale PV

Modeled Battery Costs

LEDs

Cost Reductions Market Growth

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

0

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

+100k%

+10k%

+1k%

+100%

© OECD/IEA 2017

0

10

20

30

40

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2

Efficiency 40%

Renewables 35%

Fuel switching 5%

Nuclear 6%

CCS 14%

How far can technology help take us?

Efficiency 40%

Renewables35%Fuel switching5%Nuclear 6%

CCS 14%

Efficiency 34%

Renewables 15%

Fuel switching 18%

Nuclear 1%

CCS 32%

Global CO2 reductions by technology area

2 degrees Scenario – 2DS

Reference Technology Scenario – RTS

Beyond 2 degrees Scenario – B2DS

0 200 400

Gt CO2 cumulative reductions in 2060

© OECD/IEA 2017

How are we doing?

Tracking Clean Energy Progress (TCEP) highlights the overall status and recent progress of

clean-energy technologies as well as providing insights to achieve their full potential

Electric vehicles

Solar PV and onshore wind Renewable power overall

Buildings

Nuclear

Transport

Appliances and lighting Energy storage

Industry

Biofuels

Carbon capture and storage More efficient coal-fired power

●Not on track ●Accelerated improvement needed ●On track

© OECD/IEA 2017

Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually,

coming mostly from governments.

In real terms, public RD&D spending in IEA countries has bounced back

since a low in 2000, with growth mostly in clean energy technologies.

Global clean energy RD&D spending has rebounded since 2000…

0

5

10

15

20

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

USD

(2

01

6)

bill

ion

Other

Nuclear/basic energy reearch

Hydrogen/storage

Renewables

CCS

Efficiency

© OECD/IEA 2017

Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually,

coming mostly from governments.

Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually,

coming mostly from governments. Mission Innovation could provide a much needed boost.

0

10

20

30

40

2012 2015

USD

(2

01

6)

bill

ion

Private Public Top 3 firms

0

10

20

30

40

2012 2015

USD

(2

01

6)

bill

ion

Private Public Top 3 firms

… however, a strong boost is needed going forward

Global clean energy RD&D spending

0

10

20

30

40

2012 2021

USD

(2

01

6)

bill

ion

Private Public Top 3 firms

Mission Innovation

Mission Innovation

Top 3 IT company R&D spenders

© OECD/IEA 2017

TCP expertise and global network

TCP / IEA inter-relations:

• 34 TCPs input into IEA analysis / modelling

• 30 TCPs at IEA events / workshops

• 23 TCPs in third-party events with the IEA

6,000 experts

2,000 topics

300 public or private organisations

52 countries

38 Technology Collaboration Programmes

4 intergovernmental organisations

38 TCPs, five groups:

• Cross-cutting activities (2)

• End use and energy efficiency (14)

• Fossil fuels (5)

• Fusion power (8)

• Renewable energy and hydrogen (9)

© OECD/IEA 2017

Since 2015 – progress, but much more to do…

First-Ever Universal TCP meeting (2015)

• 40th anniversary rebranded Technology Collaboration Programmes

• Mandates from IEA Ministerial – IEA as global clean energy hub; association

• Raise visibility of TCPs – “Highlights and Outcomes” publication, website

revamped; various events (COP21, Bali Clean Energy Forum, Mission

Innovation workshops, CEM); TCP-wide survey (90% response rate); desk

officer engagement

2nd TCP Universal Meeting (2017)

• New IEA Medium-Term Strategy for Research and Technology 2018-2022

• Preparing for 2017 IEA Ministerial meeting (7-8 November)

• New Action Plan for TCP Enhancement

Four sections – all geared towards specific, actionable recommendations

All of us need to do our parts for all of us to be successful…

© OECD/IEA 2017

1. Enhanced TCP-IEA Collaboration

TCPs feed into, complement, and benefit from IEA analysis, including Energy Technology Perspectives, Tracking Clean Energy Progress, World Energy Outlook, roadmaps and market reports.

Actions:

1.1 – Enhance IEA Secretariat’s capabilities to enhance TCPs

1.2 – Modernize / enhance TCP data to be able to better map and characterise TCP efforts

1.3 – Maximise number of IEA work streams that utilise TCP expertise

1.4 – Achieve better alignment between TCP activities and IEA analysis

1.5 – Carry out strategic review of CERT / Working Parties to identify improvements

© OECD/IEA 2017

While entities from IEA members presently represent 80% of TCP participants, there is strong interest to also engage emerging economies; the private sector can also provide important contributions.

Actions:

2.1 – Enhance IEA’s capabilities to support TCP outreach efforts

2.2 – Assist with identifying appropriate “points of contact” in partner countries

2.3 – Further involve TCPs in IEA regional events in/with partner countries

2.4 – Closer TCP collaboration with IEA industry stakeholder groups

2.5 – Help with identifying opportunities for joint activities with industry and others

2. Engagement with governments and the private sector

© OECD/IEA 2017

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Nu

mb

er

of

TCP

s Government participation in TCPs

Top 3 IEA member countries: United States, Japan and Korea Top 3 Partner countries: China, Mexico and Russia

© OECD/IEA 2017

TCP interest in engaging further with IEA family of countries

Top TCP participation: OES TCP, PVPS TCP, SOLARPACES TCP

© OECD/IEA 2017

3. Interactions with multi-lateral initiatives

TCPs are already co-operating with over 70 distinct multilateral entities worldwide, notably under the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM) and Mission Innovation (MI).

Actions:

3.1 – Enhance IEA’s capabilities to support TCP interlinkages with other initiatives

3.2 – Organise and facilitate joint events, notably with CEM and MI

3.3 – Leverage IEA’s network to increase awareness and develop additional capacities

3.4 – Strategic analysis and global mapping to identify additional TCP opportunities

3.5 – Enhance TCP coordination of cross-cutting initiatives

© OECD/IEA 2017

Mapping participation in IEA, CEM, MI and TCPs

IEA Partner Countries

IEA Member Countries

Missio

n In

no

va

tion

Cle

an

En

erg

y

Min

iste

ria

l

21+ 11-20

6-10 1-5

LEGEND: TCP participation

© OECD/IEA 2017

4. Awareness, communication, visibility

The IEA and individual TCPs each carry out communication activities with both expert and

non-expert audiences. A new Communication Framework expanded the range of

opportunities.

Actions:

4.1 – Increase TCP visibility on IEA website

4.2 – Regular visibility of TCPs in monthly IEA newsletter and distribute to whole TCP list

4.3 – Produce short films

4.4 – Develop TCP communication toolkit

4.5 – Strengthen visual identity – e.g. new TCP logo; organize training sessions

© OECD/IEA 2017

All of us need to do our parts for all of us to be successful…

IEA (Members and Secretariat)

Make concerted efforts to raise resources for implementation of Action Plan

Provide TCPs with strategic directions to maximise impact and mutual benefits

Further raise TCP visibility, enhance communication, and strengthen interlinkages with multi-lateral

efforts

Governments participating in TCPs

Consider participation in TCPs as a means to pursue national energy research and technology

strategies

Ensure IEA Secretariat and the individual TCPs of interest are provided with resources and top-level

talent

Provide strategic directions and guidance to TCPs through the CERT, Working Parties, and TCP ExCos

TCPs

Dialogue and exchange of info with IEA Secretariat and governments on TCP strategy, activities and

resources

Seek to expand participation to maximise inputs and outputs of TCP activities

Ensure transparency and accountability of operations

© OECD/IEA 2017

Today’s strategic conversation

2015-17 progress provides foundation for further enhancements

Vast untapped potential remains, but we need actionable ideas

Ground rules – be concise, specific and direct

Take advantage of side meetings with IEA desk officers, partner country liaisons, governments, and among each other, etc.

Execution … a question of ambition!

© OECD/IEA 2017

www.iea.org/tcp IEA

© OECD/IEA 2017

Extra slides

IEA

© OECD/IEA 2017

Solar PV and wind are still leading the transition…

Solar PV and onshore wind electricity generation are expected to grow

by 2.5 times and by 1.7 times, respectively, over 2015-20

Electricity generation of selected renewable power generation technologies

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

TW

h

PV

0

400

800

1 200

1 600

2 000

2 400

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

TW

h

Onshore Wind

Data Forecast Target

© OECD/IEA 2017

… but can’t make up for other low-carbon generation sources

While renewable power additions keep breaking records, they need to grow much faster to reach the

2DS electricity generation targets. Progress on early-stage technologies also needs to accelerate.

Total renewable power generation by region

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 0002000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2025

Sh

are

of

Ren

ew

ab

le G

en

era

tio

n

Gen

era

tio

n (

TW

h)

Rest of Non-OECD

Brazil

India

China

OECD Europe

OECD Asia Oceania

OECD Americas

Share of renewable

generation

Share of renewable

generation 2025

Historical Forecast Targets

in the 2DS

in the 2DS

© OECD/IEA 2017

Can we enact a storage revolution

Batteries experience a huge scale-up in the B2DS, with EV battery markets leading other sectors in size

Installed battery storage and costs under various scenarios

0

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2000 2015 2030 2045 2060 2015 2030 2045 2060

2DS B2DS

USD

/kW

h

GW

h

All othersectors

EV batteries

Battery costs,2DS

Battery costs,B2DS