Tough Fiscal Times for the States: How Did We Get Here? Implications for the Future National...
16
the States: How Did We Get Here? Implications for the Future National Governors Association Institute for Governors' Education Policy Advisors April 4, 2003 Scott Pattison Executive Director National Association of State Budget Officers 444 North Capitol Street, NW, Suite 642 • Washington, DC 20001 • (202) 624-5382 • www.nasbo.org
-
Upload
marvin-wilkinson -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
1
Transcript of Tough Fiscal Times for the States: How Did We Get Here? Implications for the Future National...
Tough Fiscal Times for the States: How Did We Get Here?
Implications for the Future
National Governors AssociationInstitute for Governors' Education Policy AdvisorsApril 4, 2003
Scott PattisonExecutive DirectorNational Association of State Budget Officers
444 North Capitol Street, NW, Suite 642 • Washington, DC 20001 • (202) 624-5382 • www.nasbo.org
General funds grew at historically high levels, until the “boom” ended
General Fund Expenditure Growth (%)
5.0 5.0
7.2
?
4.5
6.3
8.3
1.3
5.7
3.3
7.7
1.3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 App.2003
2004
%
Source: NASBO, Fiscal Survey of States
State budgets in the late 1990s: historic boom… followed by bust
Budget Cuts Made After the Budget Passed,Fiscal 1986-Estimated Fiscal 2003 ($ Millions)
18
23
11 12
20
35
22
9 8
13
7
2 31
16
42
28
39
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$20,000
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003est.
0
10
20
30
40
50
Number of states (right) Amount of reduction (left)
Recession ends
Source: NASBO, Fiscal Survey of States
The stock market impact
Realized Capital Gains ($ Billions)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001e 2002e
$
Source: Federation of Tax Administrators
Revenues have shrunk
Year-Over-Year Real Change inQuarterly State Personal Income Tax Revenue
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
%
Source: Fiscal Studies Program, Rockefeller Institute of Government
Economy is uncertain:consumer confidence is down
ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index
-31
-28
-25
-22
-19
-16
-13
-10
9/02 10/02 11/02 12/02 1/03 2/03 3/03
Source: Economy.com
Every part of the budget impactedby tough times
State Spending by Function as a Percent of Total State Expenditures, Fiscal 2001
Elementary & Secondary Education
22.2%
All Other32.1%
Medicaid19.6%
Public Assistance2.2%
Corrections3.7%
Transportation8.9%
Higher Education11.3%
Source: NASBO, 2001 State Expenditure Report
What’s in “all other?”
Public health Parks and recreation State police Employer contributions to
pensions and benefits Information Technology Care for mentally ill and
disabled Environmental Housing General aid to local
government
All Other32.1%
K-12 spending
0
50
100
150
200
250
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
$
20
21
22
23
%
% of Total Spending (right) $ Billions (left)
Source: NASBO, 2001 State Expenditure Report
K-12 spending
Annual Percent Change in Total Expenditures Compared to K-12 Education Expenditures, Fiscal 1992-Estimated Fiscal 2002
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002est.
%
Total State Spending K-12 Spending
Source: NASBO, 2001 State Expenditure Report
K-12 spending
State Expenditures for K-12 Education by Fund Source, Fiscal 2001
Bond Funds2.3%
Other State Funds9.9%
Federal Funds11.7%
General Funds76.1%
Source: NASBO, 2001 State Expenditure Report
K-12 spending
State K-12 Education Spending by Fund Source, Fiscal 1992-Fiscal 2002
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
General Funds Federal Funds Other State Funds Bond Funds
Source: NASBO, 2001 State Expenditure Report
Higher education spending
Source: NASBO, 2001 State Expenditure Report
Higher Education Spending as a Percentage of Total State Spending,Fiscal 1992-Fiscal 2002
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
%
Higher education spending
Source: NASBO, 2001 State Expenditure Report
Annual Percentage Change in Total State Higher Education Spending,Fiscal 1992-Fiscal 2002
3.7
8.0
4.4
2.1
11.7
8.1
4.24.9
12.8
5.3
1.2
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
%
Prepare for the future
State revenue has always been cyclical Revenue will begin to meet projections
-Maintain a long term vision-
www.nasbo.org
444 North Capitol Street, NW, Suite 642 • Washington, DC 20001 • (202) 624-5382 • www.nasbo.org
