Toronto Real Estate Market in 8 Charts - November 2016

Toronto Real Estate Monthly Charts

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Scott Ingram

CPA, CA, MBA

Realtor

Chalmers House

by Blok 70

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

http://www.century21.ca/scott.ingram


https://www.flickr.com/photos/blok70

Toronto Real Estate

Monthly Market Charts

@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram

Introduction

You read that sales last month were up 13% over last year. What does that really mean??

Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Was that due to houses or

condos? The charts that follow will add context and perspective to Toronto’s monthly real estate statistics (Toronto meaning just the 416 and not the whole GTA).

I separate Toronto’s two distinct market segments: Houses and Condos, because you probably care more about one than the other and lumping them together hides a lot of

information. I aim to give you deeper insight into market movements and trends and better

historical context.

Source for all numbers: Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) “Historic Housing Stats”

https://twitter.com/areacode416


What’s happening in

Toronto Real Estate?

Monthly Market Charts


Source for all numbers: Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) “Historic Housing Stats”

November 2016 highlights

- House sales usually drop off in November and December, but this year it was more of a leveling off, as November sales were up 11% vs. 2015 – despite new mortgage measures.

YTD sales are up a little over last year ( 1.7% YTD) but listings have been scarce – sitting

between 60% and 70% of last year’s levels for the last 8 months. That has led to quick sales

(low DOM) and crazy-low inventory levels (MOI) - House prices $283K over last Nov (30.1%) and $33K over last month

- Condo sales are way up over last year ( 18% YTD) and listings are way down (October

was only 50% of last year’s level), leading to 7 days less on market and record lows in

inventory (October’s MOI was 60% lower than last year’s)

- Condo prices $57K over last Nov(13.4%) and $9K over last month



416 Market Breakdown

@areacode416

1 year ago: Condos 54% / Houses 45%

5 years ago: Condos 52% / Houses 47%

10 years ago: Condos 45% / Houses 53%

As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more

condos are completed, transaction share should keep

shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a “starter

home” and not held onto as long on average as houses.

While houses are only 42% of sales transaction volume, they

account for 64% of dollar volume in the last 12 months.

Houses 42%

Condos 57%

Share of Transactions - last 12 months

Detached 72%

Semi 20%

Row 7%

Share of House Transactions - last 12 months

Apartment 88%

Townhouse 12%

Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months


416 Average Sold Price (Dollar volume ÷ number of transactions in the month)


Nov vs. ‘15: $283K (30.1%)

Nov vs. ‘11: $516K (73%)

5 year avg. annual growth: 11.6%

Clear year-over-year growth is evident each year in every

month, and this year it’s higher than ever. The average

price has grown $26K a month in 2016. #FOMO

Detached $1,358K / Semi $906K / Row $883K

Nov vs. ‘15: $57K (13.4%)

Nov vs. ‘11: $121K (34%)

5 year avg. annual growth: 6.0%

Though the top of the condo chart is the bottom of the

house chart, there is still impressive YoY growth (13% at

October) and average price has grown $7K a month.

Condo Apt $471K / Condo Townhouse $571K

958

1,110 1,074

1,156 1,170 1,157

1,104 1,096

1,182 1,187 1,220

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

$000s Houses (Det & Semi & Row)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

421

444

428

452 456 459

438

459 462

474 483

300

350

400

450

500


$000s Condos (Apt & Town)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



The $1,000 Ticker (Based on YTD increase of the average price)

1 day 6 hours 19 minutes*

Time it has taken this year for the price of an average 416 house or condo to go up $1,000

Houses

30:19

condos

110:41

4 days 14 hours 41 minutes

*Houses jumped $155K in Jan/Feb 2016. The last 9 months are up $110K ($10K a month) for a $1,000 Ticker Time of 59:53

416 Residential Sales (number of sold transactions in the month)


Nov vs. ‘15: 11.1%

YTD vs. ‘15: 1.7% (vs. Prior 5 years: 4.2%)

With a more finite supply, House transactions don’t vary

much from year to year (the last 5 years have stayed within

4% of the average 5 year volume). Sales for the year should

end up just over 17K — the highest since 2009 but far off

the record 20.4K in 2007

Nov vs. ‘15: 24.6%

YTD vs. ‘15: 18.1% (vs. Prior 5 years: 32.4%)

Condo supply keeps growing as new ones are built, and

some people denied by high house prices are turning to

condos. As such, each month in 2016 has seen record

transactions. By October condo sales had already

exceeded the total sales for all of 2015.

672

1162

1513

1889

2102 2066

1320 1162

1511 1534 1406

860

0

1,000

2,000

3,000


Houses (Det & Semi & Row)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1000

1609

2066

2297

2468 2472

2134 2217

2040 2145

1947

0

1,000

2,000

3,000


416 Sales - Condos (Apt & Town)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



416 Active Listings

(snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)


Nov vs. ‘15: 30%

YTD vs. ‘15: 30% (vs. Prior 5 years: 39%)

Here’s the big issue with the market: the supply of listings.

The last 8 months have only been at 60-70% of last year –

and that was a low year already. More buyers are

competing for fewer listings.

Nov vs. ‘15: 50%

YTD vs. ‘15: 29% (vs. Prior 5 years: 26%)

Condo supply as a % of last year has grown worse every

month this year, and by November, listings were only 50%

of the 2015 level. The 2,203 active listings at month end

were the lowest month since Feb 2002 (177 months).

1168 1300 1392 1452 1633

1456 1283

1119

1629 1612 1307

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000



2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

3491 3718

4028 4177 4249

4041

3608

3134 3111 2791

2203

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


Condos (Apt & Town)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



416 Months Of Inventory (active listings at month end ÷ sales for month)


Nov vs. ‘15: 0.5 months (37%)

Nov vs. Prior 5 years: 0.8 months (46%)

Supply and demand influences together on one chart. A

“balanced market” is 5-7 months of inventory. Toronto has

been in a “seller’s market” for at least 20 years and the

trend continued to get more extreme in 2016 with MOI at

record lows all year long at around the 1 month mark.

Nov vs. ‘15: 1.7 months (60%)

Nov vs. Prior 5 years: 2.1 months (65%)

Condo MOI has been below 2.0 months for 9 consecutive

months, the first time it has fallen below that barrier. The 1.1

months in November is a new record low and this is the

closest Condo and House MOI has been since September

2009.

1.7

1.1 0.9

0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0



2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

3.5

2.3

1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.5

1.3 1.1

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0


Condos (Apt & Town)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



416 Average Days On Market (Days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month)


Nov vs. ‘15: 7.0 days (33%)

Nov vs. Prior 5 years: 7.0 days (33%)

With an extreme seller’s market and a low inventory of

listings, houses that are on the market are being snapped

up quickly. The first month with a 15 DOM or lower was April

2010. 2016 has seen a record 10 months with 15 DOM or

lower (the previous record was 5 last year).

Nov vs. ‘15: 10.6 days (34%)

Nov vs. Prior 5 years: 12.3 days (37%)

The same inventory crunch on the condo side is driving

sales quicker there too. Ten years ago the average condo

was 39 DOM, and 5 years ago it was 32. This November an

average condo sold in 2/3 the time it took last year, and 21

DOM is a new record low.

24

15 13

11 12 10

13 15

12 12 14

0

10

20

30

40

50



2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

39

31

24 23 22 22 23

24 23

21 21

0

10

20

30

40

50


Condos (Apt & Town)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



416 Annual Average Price Increases (December average price compared to December of prior year)


20 year house performance: 18 years 2 years. Avg $47K. 20 year CAGR (as at Oct) is 7.0%.

20 year condo performance: 18 years 2 years.. Avg $17K. 20 year CAGR (as at Oct) is 4.8%.

15 19 46

(11)

27 36

2

49

10 12

130

(51)

57 40

22 33

117

54

105

265

10 2 19 12 20 12 3

19 7 11 42

(34)

60

20 4

(6)

29 17 22

73

(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1997 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 2016 YTD

$000s $ Increases

Houses Condos

6%

7%

17%

(3%)

9%

11%

1%

13%

2% 3%

29%

(9%)

11% 7%

3% 5%

17%

7%

12%

28%

7%

2%

12%

7%

11%

6% 2% 9% 3% 4%

17%

(12%)

23%

6% 1%

(2%)

9%

4% 6%

18%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1997 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 2016 YTD

% Increases

Houses Condos



Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.

Having built up 20 years of trust as an accountant in Toronto's art and music communities,

Scott combines his analytical skills and business savvy with his hometown knowledge and

passion to help artists and professionals alike find their next home. Scott works with the

venerable CENTURY 21 brand at the Regal Realty Inc. brokerage on Queen St. West.


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Toronto Real Estate Market in 8 Charts - November 2016

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