Tornadoes in Europe Risk and vulnerability assessment

Bogdan Antonescu*

David M. Schultz

Geraint Vaughan

Kelsey MulderUniversity of Manchester, UK

*AXA Research Fund

Deadly European tornadoes 1091–2013

people

per year(2004–2013)

What is the spatial distribution

of these tornadoes?

How many tornadoes occur

each year in Europe?

European Severe Weather Database

tornadoes reported

between 1800–2013

over Europe with QC0+

Tornadoes in Europe

Tornadoes in Europe

before 1939

tornadoes were reported in Europe

between 1800–2013 6258

France Germany

Europe

torn

ado

re

po

rts

% fro

m th

e to

tal n

um

be

r o

f to

rna

do r

ep

ort

s

torn

ado r

eport

s

tornadoes were reported

in Europe between 2004–2013

2338

Nomenclature of

Territorial Units for

Statistics (NUTS)

Bayesian hierarchical models approach

𝑝𝑘 𝜃 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 −𝜃/𝑥𝑘

𝑛𝑘|𝑁𝑘 , 𝑝𝑘 𝜃 ∼ 𝐵𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑘, 𝑝𝑘

𝑁𝑘|𝜆 ∼ 𝑃𝑜𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑜𝑛 𝜆𝑎𝑘

𝑝 𝜃, 𝜆, 𝑁1, … , 𝑁𝐾|𝑛1, … , 𝑛𝐾

∝

𝑘=1

𝐾

𝑝 𝑛𝑘|𝑁𝑘, 𝜃 𝑝 𝑁𝑘|𝜆 𝑝 𝜃 𝑝 𝜆

𝑒𝑥𝑝 𝜃 ~𝑁 𝜇, 𝜎2 ~N 0.5, 10000

𝜆~ 𝑔𝑎𝑚𝑚𝑎 𝑞, 𝑟 ~𝑔𝑎𝑚𝑚𝑎(0.001, 0.001)

day with favorable tornado parameters (nT)

using the thresholds from Brooks et al. (2003)

for CAPE, LCL, lapse rate, shear

2004–2013 ERA Interim

0.75ox0.75o

1200 UTC35 levels

NCAR/NCEP reanalysis

1997–1999

1.915ox1.875o

1800 UTC28 levels

day with favorable tornado parameters (nT)

using the thresholds from Brooks et al. (2003)

for CAPE, LCL, lapse rate, shear

log 𝜆 = 𝛼0+ 𝛼1𝑛Explanatory model

2004–2013 ERA Interim

0.75ox0.75o

1200 UTC35 levels

NCAR/NCEP reanalysis

1997–1999

1.915ox1.875o

1800 UTC28 levels