Topic DisadvantagesJames Stevenson

US Industries – Background• Auto industry• Second-largest automobile producer in the world• Est. 3-3.5% of US GDP• Directly employs 1.7 million Americans• Spends $16-18 billion annually on research and

development• Bailed out for $80 billion in 2008

• Airline Industry• Devastated by 9/11—lost $30 billion and laid off 100k

workers from 2000-2005. Bailed out for $4.6 billion.• Will fly 323 million seat-miles in 2012• Employs nearly 600,000 Americans

US Industries – Structure• Uniqueness: industry strong now• Link: plan trades off w/ industry growth• Siphons demand• Decreases competitiveness• “Zero sum”—predicated off aff solvency

• Internal link: industry is good, generally for a few reasons:• Economy• Hegemony/competitiveness• Aerospace

Economy—Background• The 2008 recession:• Recession = sustained period of decreased economic

activity• Begins in 2007. Officially ends in 2009 but lingering

effects remain• Housing bubble• Derivative deregulation• Median household income drops to 1996 levels

• The facts:• Unemployment in June is 8.2%. +800,000 jobs.• Retail sales dropped 0.5% in June—third straight negative

month• Growth in the last 11 fiscal quarters• Economy is 1.2% larger than pre-recession levels

Economy—Structure• UQ: Economy is okay• L: There are a few possibilities--• Fiscal discipline• Spending decreases US credit rating• Spending snowballs—”pork barrel” projects

• Inflation• “Invisible hand” of the free market” vs targetted

government spending• Private investment crowd-out

• !: Economy

Economy—Strategy• Two important techniques:• Know the facts.• Know the theory, so you can spin the facts.• Econ debates are 75% spin.

• Internal link comparisons• Short vs. long term growth• Sustainability of growth• Evidence specificity—generic cards vs aff/transportation

specific analysis• Eurozone comparisons

• Economic decline as “escalatino” impact—turns case args

Oil—Background• Oil prices• Spot price per barrel of Brent crude• Follow laws of supply and demand• “Market flooding”—massive supply increase to offset drop

in price• OPEC• Several of the most powerful oil retailers in the world—

except the US and Russia• Trades oil in dollars… for now

Oil—Structure• UQ: Oil prices up• L: Plan lowers oil prices• !: High oil prices good—another entity/country

depends on them

• Basically infinite possible impacts.• Aff—either don’t do things that link to the DA, or

keep updated on generic parts of the argument (oil prices uniqueness, economic stability, alt causes to the link, etc) and learn to impact turn

Oil—SCuFI file countries• Saudi Arabia• 2nd largest reserves and largest producer (as of March)• US ally, sort of. • Close neighbors w/ Egypt (just had a revolution), Israel

(historic enemies, nuclear-armed), Syria (undergoing revolution), Iraq (yeah), Bahrain + Yemen (successfully stifled revolutions), Iran (probably seeking nuclear armament, also historic enemies)

• Russia• 8th largest reserves, 2nd largest producer• Taxes on oil = half of government revenue• $1 in oil pricing = $1.5 billion of revenue

Buy America• Provisions requiring that spending goes to

American companies• Political interest• Directness of stimulus

• “Protectionism”—doesn’t give other countries a fair chance—triggers reciprocation

• Trade = “escalatino” impact

Buy America—Structure• UQ: Trade up now• L: Plan has to use Buy American, triggers

protectionism• Spills over—economic ripples• Other countries’ statements

• !: Protectionism bad• Trade connectivity = peace

Elections• Presidential elections. They are happening. Read

the news.• They matter.

• Normal election year politics = gridlock, because any controversy is kryptonite

• Infinite impacts.• Electoral college, not popular vote = some states

matter more than others• Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Iowa, North Carolina,

Arizona, New Hampshire

Elections—Structure• UQ: Obama/Romney will win now• L: Plan is unpopular/popular, making

Obama/Romney lose• !: Obama/Romney good• Iran strikes• Economy• Warming/emissions/green tech• Immigration• Health care repeal

Elections—Strategic/Tactical Notes• Two ways to get ahead on uniqueness:• Cut cards regularly.• Nate Silver = generally considered the best poll analyst in

the country• Cut swing-state specific uniqueness/link modules

to beat link turns• Elections debate often devolve to impacts v.

impact turns—be prepared with uniqueness tricks and turn shields• Obama can’t fulfill his agenda, GOP will constrain him• Romney lacks political spine, will moderate once he’s

elected

Politics—Structure• UQ: X bill will pass• L/IL: Plan’s political fallout makes X bill not pass• !: X bill good

Politics—Topic scenarios• Wind PTC• Jackson-Vanik/PNTR• Debt Ceilling/Fiscal Cliff

Further down the road:• Immigration• Energy/emissions regulation• Health care repeal• CTBT

Politics—Form• Extremely technical• Put it in the 1NR.

• Three essential elements• Recent cards• Short/efficient cards• Lots of cards

• Comparisons• Predictive vs. descriptive• Qualifications

Politics—on the 2011-2012 topic• Infrastructure spending is generally unpopular• Cost• Pork

• But it might also be kinda popular• Contractors• Public good• Stimulus/unemployment

Political Capital• Simply: presidential ability to leverage his/her

clout to pass bills• Public pressure• Back-room negotiating• Agenda setting• Have to win Obama would push the plan• Not simply a question of popularity/unpopularity

of the president OR of the plan

Politics—other links & link turns• Focus—has to work on one issue to get it passed• Agenda/docket—plan knocks another item off the

legislative list• Winners win—classic 2AC answer• Winning passage of difficult legislation builds, not spends,

political capital• Assumes political capital

Videos I wanted to show• They are funny• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNixDlRoMvA• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8UtRNCztVI• http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=HOgj2etJs3Y&feature=player_embedded• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdTgKarqTQ0• http://www.theonion.com/video/man-becomes-

gop-frontrunner-after-showing-no-inter,19678/