Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 1/24 RTOFS report with a short diversion to other NCEP and NOAA...

Tolman 11/17/2011 GOVST III, 1/24

RTOFS reportwith a short diversion to other NCEP

and NOAA activities.

Hendrik L. TolmanChief, Marine Modeling and Analysis BranchNOAA / NWS / NCEP / EMC

[email protected]


Almost out of scope

Other activities in NOAA relevant for GOVST GFDL:

Climate scale ocean modeling: Going from MOM to GOLD. Moving to coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean.

Appears to be some renewed interest in coupled hurricane modeling.

NOS: Operational models transitioned to NCEP compute:

GL, Chesapeake, Delaware and Tampa Bay. Northern Gulf, SF Bay, Columbia river next.

IOOS RA-s. NOAA storm surge roadmap team lead by NOS

Strong link with USACE, Academia.


Almost out of scope

Ditto at NCEP: CFS:

Probabilistic seasonal forecasting up to 9 months. CFC v2 operation, v3 in design stages. ENKF being set up for GODAS (MOM4).

Other relevant products …


RTOFS

Four major efforts: Eddy resolving ocean modeling. Eddy resolving ocean initialization.

Coupled modeling for hurricanes.

Coupled modeling for weather – CFS / NEMS.

All RTOFS models based on the community HYCOM model, MMAB is part of the HYCOM consortium.

RTOFS-GlobalRTOFS-Atlantic

nested RTOFS coupled to HWRF

RTOFS-NEMS

Operational 2005Operational 10/25/2011

Live testing

Early development


RTOFS-Atlantic

RTOFS-Atlantic First full HYCOM model to become operational at NCEP. Replacing previous POM model for East Coast (excluding

Gulf of Mexico). Lack of capability to get Gulf Stream to detach properly

from Cap Hatteras.

Issues with model: Left in limbo to get RTOFS-Global in fast. Major boundary fixes this week. To be nested in RTOFS-Global. Expect to be fully up to speed in 6 months.

Next decision point: do we keep this model around?

Tides.

4-6 km coastal resolution for US.


paradigm shift for NWS

RTOFS-Global

Push to global model (vs. regional models): Satisfy requirements from NOAA SAB. Provide boundary data for regional models.

Adopting existing 1/12° model from NRL (NOPP). GFS forcing (including diurnal cycle).

Timeline: Operational 10/25/2011 with NRL/NAVOCEANO

(NCODA) initialization (daily feed from NAVO). FY2014: full initialization at NCEP.

NOMADS as main distribution points (OpenDAP, NetCDF). RTOFS-Atlantic as testbed for global. Linking to NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework. No tides yet (unlike RTOFS-Atlantic)


RTOFS-Global

Grid and layer 1 temperature snapshot:

Conversion to GFS forcing “clean”, but we want to look in more detail

at the Artic Ocean.


RTOFS-Global

Nowcast/Hindcast using GDAS from n-48 to n-00 hours

Forecast Step 1 using GFS from

n-00 to f-48 hours

Forecast Step 2 using GFS from f-49 to f-96 hours

Forecast Step 3 using GFS from

f-97 to f-144 hours

00 Z 06 Z 12 Z 18 Z

Initialization file from NAVO at n-48

hours via TOC

Post-processing: generation of NetCDF files after each step (adding selected GRIB2 later).


RTOFS-Global

0:02 1:02 2:02 3:02 4:02 5:02 6:02 7:02 8:02 9:02 10:0211:0212:0213:0214:0215:0216:0217:0218:0219:0220:0221:0222:0223:020

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Production HWM 10/23/2011 54.1% Prod 13.7 Dev


RTOFS-Global

Products: Class I : Global netCDF files on native horizontal grid but

interpolated to isolevels. Delivery via NOMADS, ftpprd and NODC archives.

Surface 3 hourly files (8 variables) ~ 120 GB per cycle Volume 3D files daily (8 variables, 33 z levels) ~ 160 GB

per cycle. Target: General user; maximum flexibility for

slicing/dicing data using NOMADS/OpenDAP servers (both GDS & TDS).

Class II: Sub-regional and basin GRIB2 files (Mercator grid).

Delivery via ftpprd and AWIPS. Surface 3 hourly files (7 variables) ~ 5 GB per cycle

Target: Internal NWS needs to provide results on AWIPS or via FTP.


RTOFS-Global

Products cont’ed:

Class III: Regional (CONUS-East, CONUS-West, Alaska) netCDF files.

Delivery via NOMADS and NODC archives. Volume 6 hourly files (u,v,T,S)

Target: Other centers within NCEP (TPC, OPC) and NOS applications.

Eventually tide-resolving output time intervals. Requires NOMADS upgrades.


RTOFS-Global

Focus on producing GODAE metrics products Examples follow:

Class 1: Differences with SSH fields from independent analyses.

Class 2: Drifts from climatology at selected WOCE sections.

Class 3: Location of Gulf Stream. Class 4: Statistics on location of Gulf Stream; Daily

comparison with independent SST, SSH data.

Working on: Class 3: Transports at more than 100 sections. Class 4: Comparisons of forecasts/analysis with ARGO

profiles.


RTOFS-Global


Fukushima

EMC became US government lead on ocean plume modeling for Fukushima Dai’ichi ocean

contamination. Collaboration in large Interagency work group. Leveraging modeling from Navy, DTRA, NOS.

NCEP Navy model data distribution point. CONOPS to rapidly generate actionable information for

decision makers. Product 1: Surface particle tracing to identify potentially

contaminated areas. (April 6, 180 d) Product 2: Contamination estimates using particle

tracing + HYSPLIT atm. Deposits. (April 20, 180 d)

Product 3: Full dispersion model as passive decaying tracers, using direct release (NOS) and atm. deposit (NCEP) (dev., still much source issues)


Not for distribution, internal use only

Fukushima


RTOFS-HWRF

Ongoing experiments Real time parallel runs since 2009. Switching over to RTOFS-Global. Many lessons learned


RTOFS-HWRF

• HyHWRF average intensity error and bias are the best among participant models, except degradation at 12h in average error and negative bias at 24h.

• HyHWRF standard deviation is consistently the smallest, except 12 and 24 h.

Intensity Forecast for 6 TCs (186 cases): Gert07L, Irene09L, Katia12L, Maria14L, Ophelia16L, and

Philippe17L

HY11=HyHWRF2011; HWRF=operational HWRF

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RTOFS-HWRF

• HyHWRF exhibits comparable performance with HWRF for average track error and standard deviation (STD), except STD outperformance at 96 -120 h. GFDL shows mixed comparison but the best STD.

• HyHWRF track bias is the same northeastward as HWRF, but the bias magnitude is better than the HWRF. GFDL shows west/northwestward bias.

Track Forecast for 6 TCs (186 cases): Gert07L, Irene09L, Katia12L, Maria14L, Ophelia16L, and Philippe17L

HY11=HyHWRF2011; HWRF=operational HWRF

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RTOFS-NEMS

Working on 0.25 degree HYCOM for coupling to weather models (GFS, CFS).

Model setup and free runs successful. Moving to coupled test version with GFS in NEMS in

coming year.

Year 5 day 2 Year 5 day 180


Coupling

Some additional considerations on coupling Moving to hurricane coupling including waves.

Many more exchange parameters, sea spay to constrain fluxes.

Ice model for weather time scale critical for successful weather time scale coupled ocean-atmosphere model.

Additional focus on wave-surge model.

WAVEWATCH III – ADCIRC 1-way coupled

NCEP – LSU – ND collaborationURI coupling approach (I Ginis)

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 1/24 RTOFS report with a short diversion to other NCEP and NOAA...

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